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Post by privateatty on Feb 21, 2014 6:47:20 GMT -5
I rarely post, but has anyone pondered that perhaps this delay is ODAR "working" the register before it is even released? ODAR gets a peak at scores, knows GALs, then works the transfer list to get the precise cert they want to get the candidate pool they want before any appeals? Too nefarious? On one hand, I feel such a devious ploy would be right in line with what we could expect. On the other hand, I work for them and know such a multifaceted plan could never be pulled off. Especially without leaks. My sentiments exactly. Another holdup is ODAR and ensuring that they have the list of eligible cities that they are going to offer. And that is dependent upon the transfers solidly being in place. Another factor may be what OPM intends to do about the appeals--logistically. They have to test the 10 point vets but when do they test the folks who win their first round appeal? Is there an advantage for them in dragging out the release of the NORs? Quite possibly. While CALJ may in actuality be stating that they are anxiously awaiting the Register the reality is, as has been posted here, that ODAR is OPM's biggest customer, by far. There are a few people who are in the know here and they aren't talking nor posting here.
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Post by sealaw90 on Feb 21, 2014 9:31:19 GMT -5
Bob: "Hello? This is Bob from SSA, hey where's the new register?"
OPM, ALJ division: "Hi Bob. We know you have been patiently waiting for the new register. We should be ready to roll really soon."
Bob: "How soon? That's what you told me in December!"
OPM: "Because of the new test, and the extended announcement opening, we are expecting an unprecendented number of appeals. You know that's going to happen, don't you Bob?"
Bob: "Yes, I understand the world of hurt you are about to put yourselves in, but that's not my problem. Listen, we are your largest customer. We received our appropriations and need to get this process going before the money expires. I've called you every other week for the past 8 weeks and you tell me the same thing!"
OPM: "Bob, Bob. We hear you. We love you guys, heck, if it wasn't for SSA, our staff would be reduced to nothing! To be honest, one of our tests, the LBMT, really threw us for a loop. It looks like everyone failed it, so we have to readjust our metrics. If word got out that you are hiring ALJs who failed an entire portion of the test, well, let's just say the Washington Post and Capitol Hill would have a field day. Our contractors had to re-rack the scores, the minimums, the entire test. They've been working overtime the past 6 weeks, but they tell us they're done and should be presenting the final register next week. We just have to review it, and after my boss approves it, we will release it."
Bob: "I sure hope your boss is not planning on taking a vacation to further delay the register. I know my boss isn't, and she's breathing down my neck! I will be calling you again next week if i don't see or hear of anything moving, got it? Good."
OPM: I know, I hope next week's phone call brings good news, have a good weekend."
Bob:" You too."
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Post by funkyodar on Feb 21, 2014 10:14:08 GMT -5
For those of us wannabes that haven't been reading the wonderful discussion on aljs working from home in the "memorandum" thread, you should. It has evolved into quite the informative discussion on perfroming the job we all want and different perspectives from those already sitting in the big chair (merely a euphemism for the job, your chair will be no bigger than anyone else "judge").
Of particular note to us, jerseymom (a current alj that has been an excellent resource on the board and is my new board crush, sorry christina) disclosed yesterday that she learned that in addition to the 90 slots ssa has hiring authority to fill this fiscal, they have plans to hire 110 next fiscal.
That is quite heartening for those like your funkily that expects at most a mid range score. With the high percentage of vets that should be on this reg and with this years forthcoming hire being the first cert from a new reg, I really think you are gonna need to bein the top 25% to 33% to make the first cert. This reported second (and maybe third and fourth) rounds of hiring next fiscal looks to be the sweetspot for middle of the packers. Let the high scorers fill those first 90 slots and have a little 3 strike war.
That also makes the raw #s quite better than expected. If this reg is the gonna be the 1000 (+ or - 100) we have guesstimated, hiring of 200 over the next two fiscals is a raw 60% chance at making a cert and 20% chance at landing the job. Obviously your real statistical chances are dependent on your actual reg position and hugelyimportant gal, among other factors. But it makes me feel better to think 20%. Think about this guys, if the 6000+ number is right on total applicants and 1000 is right on the reg size (and you get past this last reportedly small cut), you already beat 1 in 6 odds, or 16.6%.
I definitely think its possible I shipped my pants in DC and didn't make the cut. Possible, but I don't think likely. It's also possible I outwrote and outspoke all you brilliant bastards and will be at the top of the register. But considering I saw none of you anywhere near as intoxicated as I hoped during testing, its possible but not likely. So, expecting a middle score seems reasonable and figuring that equates my best chances to this second or later cert. That has really helped me deal with the delay. Knowing I will most likely be waiting to next fiscal even if scores were released today has had a remarkably calming effect.
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Post by hopefalj on Feb 21, 2014 10:17:07 GMT -5
On one hand, I feel such a devious ploy would be right in line with what we could expect. On the other hand, I work for them and know such a multifaceted plan could never be pulled off. Especially without leaks. My sentiments exactly. Another holdup is ODAR and ensuring that they have the list of eligible cities that they are going to offer. And that is dependent upon the transfers solidly being in place. Another factor may be what OPM intends to do about the appeals--logistically. They have to test the 10 point vets but when do they test the folks who win their first round appeal? Is there an advantage for them in dragging out the release of the NORs? Quite possibly. While CALJ may in actuality be stating that they are anxiously awaiting the Register the reality is, as has been posted here, that ODAR is OPM's biggest customer, by far. There are a few people who are in the know here and they aren't talking nor posting here. On appeals... does OPM have any sort of deadline to issue decisions on appeals? Is there some administrative appeal regulation that forces them to act in 30/60/90 days? I'm sure we'd all like to think they'll act expeditiously, but given how long we've been waiting for NORs, do we actually expect that? Giving the test to successful appellants from round 1 shouldn't be too difficult. That was all done online. I think those appealing from round two have a tough row to hoe given that there was a minimum score needed that was likely based on a curve. They can worry about the logistics of the WD/SI once they get a handle on how many folks need to be tested.
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NP
Full Member
Posts: 82
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Post by NP on Feb 21, 2014 10:26:46 GMT -5
funky (or anyone else in the know), do we know an approximate percentage of the number of vets expected on the register? I'm not sure I've seen that anywhere, and I think it will make a huge difference, especially for those of us who are not vets. (This should in no way be construed as suggesting I don't think vets should get a hiring preference. I absolutely do.)
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Post by 71stretch on Feb 21, 2014 10:41:48 GMT -5
I don't know how we would POSSIBLY know even approximately the percentage of vets to be on the upcoming register. That would require psychic abilities that I don't believe any of us have.
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Post by Dark Lord of the Sith on Feb 21, 2014 10:43:40 GMT -5
I rarely post, but has anyone pondered that perhaps this delay is ODAR "working" the register before it is even released? ODAR gets a peak at scores, knows GALs, then works the transfer list to get the precise cert they want to get the candidate pool they want before any appeals? Too nefarious? I think you are closer to the truth that you actually know....Some time ago I posted about a strange conversation I had with a high high high high up person in the Agency and I came away with the strange feeling this person knew what my score was As I said before, the scores do not belong to us and they are not protected by some HIPPA type law....so it is highly possible that big wigs could get a peak at the scores especially if a high high up has plans of hiring a specific person they know and like for crapville....someone they know will stay and fit in with the office culture there...or it could just be idol curiosity. At any rate I think we would all be fools to think our scores are being held in some golden envelope only to be released on Oscar night.
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Post by funkyodar on Feb 21, 2014 10:49:19 GMT -5
funky (or anyone else in the know), do we know an approximate percentage of the number of vets expected on the register? I'm not sure I've seen that anywhere, and I think it will make a huge difference, especially for those of us who are not vets. (This should in no way be construed as suggesting I don't think vets should get a hiring preference. I absolutely do.) My theory on it being a large percentage is only a shade lighter than full on asspullery. There is a poll asking vet pref vs nonvet pref for the march 13 candidates. As is typical for our polls, there were only a hundred or so votes if I recall. From that it looked like 21 claimed either 10 or 5 point preference, equating to around 20%. Now, its possible participation in the poll was vet heavy. Also very possible our polls and board participation doesn't come close to reflecting the population of candidates. Still, no one has countered the theory that the reg will have 20% vets with any evidence so I accepted that proposition. If we assume the average vet candidate is no better or worse than a nonvet, then apply the pref points, I can't see how that doesn't elevate them to the higher register. Which fuels my theory that this first cert, 270+ candidates with highest scores or top 25 to 30% of the reg, will likely be very vet heavy.
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Post by 71stretch on Feb 21, 2014 10:59:05 GMT -5
funky (or anyone else in the know), do we know an approximate percentage of the number of vets expected on the register? I'm not sure I've seen that anywhere, and I think it will make a huge difference, especially for those of us who are not vets. (This should in no way be construed as suggesting I don't think vets should get a hiring preference. I absolutely do.) My theory on it being a large percentage is only a shade lighter than full on asspullery. There is a poll asking vet pref vs nonvet pref for the march 13 candidates. As is typical for our polls, there were only a hundred or so votes if I recall. From that it looked like 21 claimed either 10 or 5 point preference, equating to around 20%. Now, its possible participation in the poll was vet heavy. Also very possible our polls and board participation doesn't come close to reflecting the population of candidates. Still, no one has countered the theory that the reg will have 20% vets with any evidence so I accepted that proposition. If we assume the average vet candidate is no better or worse than a nonvet, then apply the pref points, I can't see how that doesn't elevate them to the higher register. Which fuels my theory that this first cert, 270+ candidates with highest scores or top 25 to 30% of the reg, will likely be very vet heavy. And, however many there are, many of them will potentially get three struck against one another in a single cert.
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Post by Ace Midnight on Feb 21, 2014 11:04:53 GMT -5
From that it looked like 21 claimed either 10 or 5 point preference, equating to around 20%. Now, its possible participation in the poll was vet heavy. Also very possible our polls and board participation doesn't come close to reflecting the population of candidates. Still, no one has countered the theory that the reg will have 20% vets with any evidence so I accepted that proposition. If we assume the average vet candidate is no better or worse than a nonvet, then apply the pref points, I can't see how that doesn't elevate them to the higher register. Which fuels my theory that this first cert, 270+ candidates with highest scores or top 25 to 30% of the reg, will likely be very vet heavy. It is certainly possible that poll participation was vet heavy - as vets would be more likely to be drawn into the thread. Obviously polls screen out non-account lurkers, as well. However, I agree that, particularly with the points added at every cutoff (at least for cutoff purposes) and, to the final numerical score - the first cert could be very vet heavy, perhaps as high as 1/3 of a cert of 300. High scoring vets with broad GALs could be considered for many of the initial vacancies and have a theoretical edge in head-to-head considerations with non-vets at the same vacancy. I think the danger for a high-score 10-pointer, with a broad GAL is to accumulate 3 strikes very quickly. However, as 3 strikes is discretionary, that is just a tool, IMHO, to eliminate vets they were not going to hire, anyway, without having to jump through all the hoops to bypass them after the 3rd time. If they want to hire these candidates, 3 strikes will not matter, and these candidates will be hired, period.
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Post by Dark Lord of the Sith on Feb 21, 2014 12:06:01 GMT -5
My theory on it being a large percentage is only a shade lighter than full on asspullery. There is a poll asking vet pref vs nonvet pref for the march 13 candidates. As is typical for our polls, there were only a hundred or so votes if I recall. From that it looked like 21 claimed either 10 or 5 point preference, equating to around 20%. Now, its possible participation in the poll was vet heavy. Also very possible our polls and board participation doesn't come close to reflecting the population of candidates. Still, no one has countered the theory that the reg will have 20% vets with any evidence so I accepted that proposition. If we assume the average vet candidate is no better or worse than a nonvet, then apply the pref points, I can't see how that doesn't elevate them to the higher register. Which fuels my theory that this first cert, 270+ candidates with highest scores or top 25 to 30% of the reg, will likely be very vet heavy. And, however many there are, many of them will potentially get three struck against one another in a single cert. It seems like you assume that vets are some type of malignant step children that have to be dealt with before the healthy children and rightful heirs to the throne can be hired. Fact is most vets will probably be a better fit for the Agency that most think for sevral reasons: 1. Willingness to work in crapville by nature of some of the shit places you have to serve in the military. My guess is any place in America is better than Iraq. 2. Team players...SSA is nothing short of a civilian branch of the service... and believe me, since I work for the agency, team work , espirit de corps, and belief in the chain of command is sacred. Chances are a vet will not have problems with this type of structure versus other because they have proven it under fire. 3. Work ethic...believe it or not there is a species of professionals that work harder, on average, than trial lawyers and for less than 1/2 the pay...4. Proven track record of public service.....I know there are other civil servants and public service attorneys out there....but last time I checked not to many of them had to carryout their job under fire or the threat or enemy fire, IEDs, sniper fire, etcc.....of course this doesn't apply to Detroit...nevertheless....I suspect many of the high flying private practice trial attorneys may have difficulty getting along with the simple folk the populate the world of ODAR that they so eagerly want to venture into. (Check your $1,000 suit and red power tie at the door). That said vets I am sure will be good candidates and some will not...but to opine that most of them will be 3 struck simply becuase they are vets is.....(you fill in the blank). Last time I checked vets make up a healthy percentage of the ALJ corp. Thank you for your service and good luck.
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Post by funkyodar on Feb 21, 2014 12:16:01 GMT -5
And, however many there are, many of them will potentially get three struck against one another in a single cert. It seems like you assume that vets are some type of malignant step children that have to be dealt with before the healthy children and rightful heirs to the throne can be hired. Fact is most vets will probably be a better fit for the Agency that most think for sevral reasons: 1. Willingness to work in crapville by nature of some of the shit places you have to serve in the military. My guess is any place in America is better than Iraq. 2. Team players...SSA is nothing short of a civilian branch of the service... and believe me, since I work for the agency, team work , espirit de corps, and belief in the chain of command is sacred. Chances are a vet will not have problems with this type of structure versus other because they have proven it under fire. 3. Work ethic...believe it or not there is a species of professionals that work harder, on average, than trial lawyers and for less than 1/2 the pay...4. Proven track record of public service.....I know there are other civil servants and public service attorneys out there....but last time I checked not to many of them had to carryout their job under fire or the threat or enemy fire, IEDs, sniper fire, etcc.....of course this doesn't apply to Detroit...nevertheless....I suspect many of the high flying private practice trial attorneys may have difficulty getting along with the simple folk the populate the world of ODAR that they so eagerly want to venture into. (Check your $1,000 suit and red power tie at the door). That said vets I am sure will be good candidates and some will not...but to opine that most of them will be 3 struck simply becuase they are vets is.....(you fill in the blank). Last time I checked vets make up a healthy percentage of the ALJ corp. Thank you for your service and good luck. I won't presume to speak for observer, but I don't think that was the intent at all. As the son of a two combat tour in Viet Nam retired and disabled army ranger, you can bet your sith arse I don't have any problems with vets getting preference and I agree they are wonderfully suited for the job in most instances. The truth is tho, this is a competition and my respect for vets doesn't make me want the job less. It is also established fact the agency has used vet on vet strikes to get to nonvets in the past. the fact that this first cert will likely be vet heavy virtually assures the same now. Observer just pointed that out. I didn't see any opinion expressed.
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Post by Dark Lord of the Sith on Feb 21, 2014 12:55:43 GMT -5
Just finished watching lone survivor, which is what I feel like, so I might be just a bit trigger happy.... I did note "It seems like you assume" so I left myself some wiggle room. Cannot the opposite be true too?....Vets can be strategically placed to 3 strick super high scorers whom the agency feels would not be a great fit. For example, the dude who makes $350,000 a year and thinks all government lawyers are lazy and only want to work from 9 to 5?
Only Dark Side Love for my potiential brethren.....
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Post by 71stretch on Feb 21, 2014 13:00:29 GMT -5
It seems like you assume that vets are some type of malignant step children that have to be dealt with before the healthy children and rightful heirs to the throne can be hired. Fact is most vets will probably be a better fit for the Agency that most think for sevral reasons: 1. Willingness to work in crapville by nature of some of the shit places you have to serve in the military. My guess is any place in America is better than Iraq. 2. Team players...SSA is nothing short of a civilian branch of the service... and believe me, since I work for the agency, team work , espirit de corps, and belief in the chain of command is sacred. Chances are a vet will not have problems with this type of structure versus other because they have proven it under fire. 3. Work ethic...believe it or not there is a species of professionals that work harder, on average, than trial lawyers and for less than 1/2 the pay...4. Proven track record of public service.....I know there are other civil servants and public service attorneys out there....but last time I checked not to many of them had to carryout their job under fire or the threat or enemy fire, IEDs, sniper fire, etcc.....of course this doesn't apply to Detroit...nevertheless....I suspect many of the high flying private practice trial attorneys may have difficulty getting along with the simple folk the populate the world of ODAR that they so eagerly want to venture into. (Check your $1,000 suit and red power tie at the door). That said vets I am sure will be good candidates and some will not...but to opine that most of them will be 3 struck simply becuase they are vets is.....(you fill in the blank). Last time I checked vets make up a healthy percentage of the ALJ corp. Thank you for your service and good luck. I won't presume to speak for observer, but I don't think that was the intent at all. As the son of a two combat tour in Viet Nam retired and disabled army ranger, you can bet your sith arse I don't have any problems with vets getting preference and I agree they are wonderfully suited for the job in most instances. The truth is tho, this is a competition and my respect for vets doesn't make me want the job less. It is also established fact the agency has used vet on vet strikes to get to nonvets in the past. the fact that this first cert will likely be vet heavy virtually assures the same now. Observer just pointed that out. I didn't see any opinion expressed. Funky is correct. No opinion expressed. I have ZERO issue with veterams preference. I didn't say, or mean, that they were being struck because they were vets. I'm saying that they can be struck against one another, and if they have a large GAL it can happen three times on one cert. They may be struck to reach yet another vet, for that matter. I've just pointed out what others have pointed out here before, that the 10 pointers who sit at the top of the groups of three for various cities can be struck against one another. (That can open up spots, theoretically at least, for high scoring nonvets.) It's also true, as sith indicated, that ODAR will find a way to hire the 10 point vets they want, even if in the mysterious machinations of hiring they have been three struck already, siince the three strike is not a mandatory exclusion from consideration. Back to reading the "everyone's nerves are on edge" thread, I guess.
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Post by hopefalj on Feb 21, 2014 13:00:50 GMT -5
Agree with funky's and observer's posts. It isn't a matter of a vet not being qualified or not being good enough. It's a matter of a vet being in the way of selecting a desirable non-vet. If funky is a favored son, and I will assume he is given some of his prior posts, but two vets stand between him and ALJhood in Crapland USA, ODAR will do their best to get those two vets out of the way. Three-striking is the easiest way to get there.
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Post by Dark Lord of the Sith on Feb 21, 2014 13:35:12 GMT -5
Agree with funky's and observer's posts. It isn't a matter of a vet not being qualified or not being good enough. It's a matter of a vet being in the way of selecting a desirable non-vet. If funky is a favored son, and I will assume he is given some of his prior posts, but two vets stand between him and ALJhood in Crapland USA, ODAR will do their best to get those two vets out of the way. Three-striking is the easiest way to get there. Well lets hope funky doesn't want to go to Flint, Toledo, Mt. Pleasant, or Alexandria, LA
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Post by funkyodar on Feb 21, 2014 14:23:27 GMT -5
Agree with funky's and observer's posts. It isn't a matter of a vet not being qualified or not being good enough. It's a matter of a vet being in the way of selecting a desirable non-vet. If funky is a favored son, and I will assume he is given some of his prior posts, but two vets stand between him and ALJhood in Crapland USA, ODAR will do their best to get those two vets out of the way. Three-striking is the easiest way to get there. "Favored son" is something I have wondered about. I've been with the agency almost six years. First 3 as an AA and then SAA. During that time Ive been a steady, but avearge to slightly above average producer. Other than a briefin house detail as an acting group sup, I haven't done any of the prized details. I feel confident I am liked in my office, but I imagine no one in regional or FC knows my name. On the other hand, I've never rocked the boat and doubt I've made any higher up enemies. thus, I doubt I meet "favored son" status. Pretty sure I got here based on my pre-odar career. But, I've not heard exactly what equates to "favored." I certainly know some in our group that have done the details and hobnobbed with the right thiscalj and thatcalj. if that's the standard, funk doesn't meet it. But if its enough to be a nontrouble maker that's liked by local, I will gladly take the advantage.
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Post by funkyodar on Feb 21, 2014 14:27:56 GMT -5
It seems like you assume that vets are some type of malignant step children that have to be dealt with before the healthy children and rightful heirs to the throne can be hired. Fact is most vets will probably be a better fit for the Agency that most think for sevral reasons: 1. Willingness to work in crapville by nature of some of the shit places you have to serve in the military. My guess is any place in America is better than Iraq. 2. Team players...SSA is nothing short of a civilian branch of the service... and believe me, since I work for the agency, team work , espirit de corps, and belief in the chain of command is sacred. Chances are a vet will not have problems with this type of structure versus other because they have proven it under fire. 3. Work ethic...believe it or not there is a species of professionals that work harder, on average, than trial lawyers and for less than 1/2 the pay...4. Proven track record of public service.....I know there are other civil servants and public service attorneys out there....but last time I checked not to many of them had to carryout their job under fire or the threat or enemy fire, IEDs, sniper fire, etcc.....of course this doesn't apply to Detroit...nevertheless....I suspect many of the high flying private practice trial attorneys may have difficulty getting along with the simple folk the populate the world of ODAR that they so eagerly want to venture into. (Check your $1,000 suit and red power tie at the door). That said vets I am sure will be good candidates and some will not...but to opine that most of them will be 3 struck simply becuase they are vets is.....(you fill in the blank). Last time I checked vets make up a healthy percentage of the ALJ corp. Thank you for your service and good luck. DLOTS: Thank you for a very nice post. Very nice things said. With those things said, there are some vets that should not be hired [maybe I'm one of them]. Hopefully this "three strike" thing will not be used arbitrarily and capriciously, but reasonably. One can always hope. It could very well be a trap though. You certainly are not in my "please don't hire that guy" group DD. Quite the opposite. Be an honor to serve as a judge with you orin my capacity as a senior in an office where you are a judge. That's true for the vast majority of folks on these boards, vet and nonvet.
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Post by hopefalj on Feb 21, 2014 14:41:40 GMT -5
Agree with funky's and observer's posts. It isn't a matter of a vet not being qualified or not being good enough. It's a matter of a vet being in the way of selecting a desirable non-vet. If funky is a favored son, and I will assume he is given some of his prior posts, but two vets stand between him and ALJhood in Crapland USA, ODAR will do their best to get those two vets out of the way. Three-striking is the easiest way to get there. "Favored son" is something I have wondered about. I've been with the agency almost six years. First 3 as an AA and then SAA. During that time Ive been a steady, but avearge to slightly above average producer. Other than a briefin house detail as an acting group sup, I haven't done any of the prized details. I feel confident I am liked in my office, but I imagine no one in regional or FC knows my name. On the other hand, I've never rocked the boat and doubt I've made any higher up enemies. thus, I doubt I meet "favored son" status. Pretty sure I got here based on my pre-odar career. But, I've not heard exactly what equates to "favored." I certainly know some in our group that have done the details and hobnobbed with the right thiscalj and thatcalj. if that's the standard, funk doesn't meet it. But if its enough to be a nontrouble maker that's liked by local, I will gladly take the advantage. I get your point and somewhat agree. But when you're encouraged by management and ALJs to look into a GS position, odds are you're doing something right and will get good recs from the right folks in your office. I would think you'd be considered a "good" insider, which should certainly help when OPM throws your name on a cert.
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Post by mr406bfee on Feb 21, 2014 15:09:09 GMT -5
I concur with the Funkyness and his original post. Most of us will be in the middle of the group and have our best chance after the first round is over. Destiny will rule from here on out. However, I am just a caveman, OPM and ODAR frighten and confuse me. Sometimes the honking horns of your traffic make me want to get out of my BMW and run off into the hills or whatever.
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