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Post by Gaidin on Feb 22, 2014 15:08:56 GMT -5
Several people have suggested that the NORs will be released around the 1st of March. Several people have indicated that ODAR intends to hire around 90 ALJs in fiscal year 13/14. At least one poster has stated that they have reliable information that ODAR is waiting on OPM and not the other way around. At least one poster has stated that they have reliable information that the cut at this phase will not e anywhere near 30%. The current SD status folks make up roughly 30% of our poll responses from folks who can view their status.
I suggest (others have as well) that the reason that NORs have yet to be released is that OPM is having to reset the minimum score for the WD, the SI, or both in order to get a register that is large enough to meet their needs. To make these changes they will have to be defensible on appeal. I don't believe that just lowering the passing score arbitrarily to achieve the desired cert size is defensible.This means that some maybe many people with SD as a status will be moving on. I expect that the March 1 time frame is a drop dead date for ODAR to be able to hire the desired ALJs prior to the end of Sept.
Obviously, this is pure speculation based upon message board rumors but its something to discuss on a Saturday. What do you guys think?
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Post by westernalj on Feb 22, 2014 16:27:33 GMT -5
I wonder if a quality check of the essay grading showed a problem and it had to be redone. This seems possible to me, but so do many other theories. I doubt we'll ever know. I do think the long wait will end soon - 30 days or less.
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Post by privateatty on Feb 22, 2014 17:17:17 GMT -5
Several people have suggested that the NORs will be released around the 1st of March. Several people have indicated that ODAR intends to hire around 90 ALJs in fiscal year 13/14. At least one poster has stated that they have reliable information that ODAR is waiting on OPM and not the other way around. At least one poster has stated that they have reliable information that the cut at this phase will not e anywhere near 30%. The current SD status folks make up roughly 30% of our poll responses from folks who can view their status. I suggest (others have as well) that the reason that NORs have yet to be released is that OPM is having to reset the minimum score for the WD, the SI, or both in order to get a register that is large enough to meet their needs. To make these changes they will have to be defensible on appeal. I don't believe that just lowering the passing score arbitrarily to achieve the desired cert size is defensible.This means that some maybe many people with SD as a status will be moving on. I expect that the March 1 time frame is a drop dead date for ODAR to be able to hire the desired ALJs prior to the end of Sept. Obviously, this is pure speculation based upon message board rumors but its something to discuss on a Saturday. What do you guys think? If ALJD came on and and squelched the whole "30% see details tab theory of self destruction" line of speculation I'd take it to the bank. I can't quarrel with the time line above--time is running short to do a hire by Sep. 30. I always think of those who are habitually late--there's a message, subconsciously or not. In the past OPM did a quick timeline in 2007--and '08. They can do it. Just like they can meet CALJ's timeline. Who's your Daddy? |
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Post by 71stretch on Feb 22, 2014 17:42:45 GMT -5
In 2010, it was 2 months and 3 weeks from NORs to first offers. (5/24-8/3) They still have time. That said, March 1 or thereabouts would be a just fine release date.
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Post by hopefalj on Feb 22, 2014 18:02:21 GMT -5
My theory is that OPM monitors this board, waiting for us to go three consecutive days without complaining about OPM or coming up with conspiracy theories before they'll release the scores. Based on this theory, we may never get our NORs.
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Post by ssaogc on Feb 22, 2014 19:54:20 GMT -5
My theory is that this guy ate 70 percent of the WD tests which resulted in status changes to "Complete" and those that he did not eat will get an explanation why he did not eat them under see details tab.
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Post by trekker on Feb 22, 2014 20:45:44 GMT -5
I think OPM is busy hiding NOR's in plastics pastel Easter eggs that will be given out to children at the annual Easter egg roll on the White House lawn. Those eggs that roll down the fastest will be awarded NOR's that indicate success in moving forward. Those that fail to meet the minimum time limit will be tossed into the nearest recycle can, never to be heard from again.
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Post by redsox1 on Feb 23, 2014 5:41:22 GMT -5
It saw on the OB that it came out in litigation the there was no cut score in the old exam process because OPM had not performed a job analysis, One possibility is that there is some tweaking of the scores because the actual scores did not conform to the assumptions used to come up with the cut scores. Personally, like to keep things simple and I think OPM is sitting on the scores.
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Post by valkyrie on Feb 24, 2014 10:09:16 GMT -5
Surely you all missed the news about the tragic Acme factory explosion in Sheboygan. The subsequent Magic Eight Ball shortage is crippling OPM...
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Post by robespierre on Feb 24, 2014 10:38:29 GMT -5
Gaidin- While certainly not the same, your new theory is not all THAT different from the theory I advanced on pg. 23 of the "Status Change to 'Complete'" thread. The theory was that "Complete" means you are definitively on OR off the register, while "See Details" means you could go either way depending on how things shake out when every last test has been scored and all the scores analyzed.
With the addition of the LBMT, and a new type of applicant pool due to the announcement being open longer, it's understandable that the dividing line between "good enough for the register" and "not quite good enough" is a shifting target this time around.
So I think you're on the right track.
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Post by zebra51 on Feb 24, 2014 10:40:19 GMT -5
Here is another new speculation. Both ODAR and OPM are chomping at the bit to release the NORs. The hold up is with the OPM OGC office that will be defending appeals. The attorney's at the OGC office have asked for a last minute release of the NORs to help them out in their preparation for the influx of appeals.
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Post by Ace Midnight on Feb 24, 2014 11:45:43 GMT -5
At least one poster has stated that they have reliable information that ODAR is waiting on OPM and not the other way around. ... I suggest (others have as well) that the reason that NORs have yet to be released is that OPM is having to reset the minimum score for the WD, the SI, or both in order to get a register that is large enough to meet their needs. To make these changes they will have to be defensible on appeal. ... Obviously, this is pure speculation based upon message board rumors but its something to discuss on a Saturday. What do you guys think? Assuming the rumor is true that ODAR is waiting on OPM, rather than the other way around (e.g. - the theory that appeared more and more valid as we got deeper into February with no NORs and no new register) - I agree that we would need a new theory. A glitch in the process would be about the most unwelcome news possible - next, of course, to a poor or non-qualifying score. Having said that - your proposed "new theory" seems very specific - without additional facts, I can agree it is possible, but that, more broadly, some sort of "glitch" appears to have occurred - either a glitch in scoring, standards, the grading/scoring process itself. That much is certainly plausible - given the additional steps and testing components this time, compared to the most recent testing process. We now have people tossing out, for a few weeks now, "March 1st" - which is of course the upcoming Saturday - as a possible release date, meaning, more likely, "next week". We certainly seem to have been stuck on "next week" for some time, with shutdowns and weather events aplenty. It is difficult to reconcile a theory about a glitch in the process (however extensive) and a definitive date for it to be cleared up. Appeals seem to be a boogeyman - there will always be successful appeals. If OPM delayed until that was an impossibility, they would never release results as their applicant pool would age and die over the years. At a certain point, they will say, "This is the best we can do for now" - it will be true, and they will just work the appeals as the rest of us go forward with the process. After all - nothing that happened in D.C. should affect the appeals of those cut at the earlier steps - I mean, having to adjudicate a subset of those with lower scores on the register (bottom half will be 500 to 600) seems to pale in comparision to 4000 to 5000 cut at earlier steps, don't you think? |
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Post by Gaidin on Feb 24, 2014 12:24:27 GMT -5
I had bought in with great reluctance to the idea that OPM was waiting on SSA. However, in recent days we have seen a number of people report the rumor that SSA was ready but OPM was not. Additionally, we heard another rumor that there was no intent to cut 30% at this point. If these things are true then the culprit for the delay that springs to mind is recalculating passing scores.
I am not beholden to this theory but it explains those two rumors nicely. I don't see why a deadline of first week of March couldn't be imposed.
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Post by crab on Feb 24, 2014 12:25:06 GMT -5
Here is another new speculation. Both ODAR and OPM are chomping at the bit to release the NORs. The hold up is with the OPM OGC office that will be defending appeals. The attorney's at the OGC office have asked for a last minute release of the NORs to help them out in their preparation for the influx of appeals. OPM's OGC sounds like Nirvana if their client is willing to make operational decisions based on their lawyers' need for time. Call me a cynic but this idea has been floated before and I still ain't biting. I'll eat my hat if it's true - and most certainly apply for a job there if this ALJ gig doesn't pan out.  Honestly, absent the news on the board here that made me think things were "fast-tracking" based on the status changes in December, I never was given the impression that this would be a fast process so my theory would be that March has been a rough target all along (if in fact March brings us NORs). Hang in there folks and thanks for the fun reads! |
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Post by funkyodar on Feb 24, 2014 14:55:25 GMT -5
I'm beginning to think this whole thing is just a glitch in the matrix. Any moment now someone will show up and offer me a choice between pills. Take one and stay in a constant state of limbo.
Take the other and awake wired to a computer in a freezing cold OPM exam room with a screen flaahing ALJOPMSSAAQEASJTWDSINOR on a loop and an IV of situational bourbon in my arm.
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Post by sealaw90 on Feb 24, 2014 16:10:44 GMT -5
Reminds me of a Jefferson Airplane song - "White Rabbit"
"One pill makes you larger
And one pill makes you small
And the ones that mother gives you
Don't do anything at all
Go ask Alice
When she's ten feet tall"
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Post by Ace Midnight on Feb 24, 2014 17:02:49 GMT -5
"That Smell" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
Whiskey bottles, and brand new cars
Oak tree you're in my way
There's too much coke and too much smoke
Look what's going on inside you
Ooooh that smell
Can't you smell that smell
Ooooh that smell
The smell of death surrounds you
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Post by anotherfed on Feb 26, 2014 7:15:10 GMT -5
Well, I think we can kiss the March 1 date goodbye. It is snowing in DC again. The federal government is open, but with unscheduled telework or leave, expect a skeleton crew. At this point DC inhabitants and especially federal employees, are so traumatized by the many snow events of this winter. Can you imagine? We have gotten an accumulated snowfall total of ... Wait for it ... Wait for it .... 18 inches. Posters and lurkers from northern and western areas, please stop snickering. Even now, it is snowing. Traffic is at a standstill, and <gasp> snow appears to be coating the sidewalks. I am looking out my window and wondering if I will need snowshoes to get from the parking garage to my office (you can never be too sure about office elevators). Expect a delay while the OPM moppets recover from this latest weather blow. For today's anticipated 1-3 inches, expect 1-3 weeks recovery time. Well, time to load up my cross country skis in the car and begin the 14 hour commute to work...
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Post by sealaw90 on Feb 26, 2014 9:09:27 GMT -5
I'm counting on the contractors who do not get snow days (for the most part) to keep plugging away at the scores/stats/nonsense in putting the NORs together. I am feeling optimistic today - not that it will be today the scores are released, just that February is nearing the end so results are getting that much closer.
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Post by chessparent on Feb 26, 2014 21:20:40 GMT -5
I have read with great interest all of the various conspiracies (my favorite is the Easter egg theory). The problem is that most, if not all, require a level of institutional organization that just does not exist in one agency, let alone two. My little local ODAR office cannot even organize well enough to buy a new coffee maker, let alone keep a secret as big as these conspiracies. My theory is that the newest Dance Moms controversy is so compelling that nobody has gone to work and people are still agonizing over choosing team Abby or team Kelly.
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