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Post by sandiferhands (old) on Mar 16, 2014 14:29:52 GMT -5
JudgeRatty and chinook: Thanks, I understand what you are saying. I know that a GAL can't be tweaked "up" (ie cities added). I asked the question because many on the new register may be trying to decide whether or not to drop one or more cities from their GALs. If a person has, e.g., 5 Golden cities on their GAL, and 5 crapland cities, knowing the number (even approximate) of vacancies in each helps determine their strategy. If there are, say, 3 openings each in the Golden cities and 1 opening in only one of the crapland cities, one might very well choose to delete that C.L. city from his GAL to prevent that from becoming his offer (ie, nudging his consideration toward a desirable city, assuming a good interview and references). I am aware that the prospect of the openings being in the "good" cities and not in CL is counter-intuitive, but knowledge is better than guessing under any circumstance. Conversely, someone considering deleting a few CL cities from his GAL might see that there are no openings in his Golden cities, and openings only in his CL cities--thus, he knows he needs to keep CL on his GAL, if he is to have a prayer of being placed somewhere. A corollary is that he and his family can then have a clearer picture of what might lie ahead, for planning purposes. So, I still maintain that having some idea of where vacancies are at this point is very useful information for the members of the new register. If anyone can post this it would be most appreciated.
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Post by 71stretch on Mar 16, 2014 14:31:27 GMT -5
And with all of the above said, you probably do not want to be in a position where you turn down an offer for a particular city thinking they will simply offer you a different city. I am not so sure that will happen. So having cities on your GAL that you have no plans to accept is an issue. To my knowledge, that NEVER happens. You are offered one office and one office only, take it or leave it. You may be granted a day to think about it, but you will not get offered another office as an option. And, even if we had a list of all the vacancies, that does not tell us which will be filled. IIRC, one or more of the newer offices has never had the number of ALJs they were built for.
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Post by Orly on Mar 16, 2014 14:43:04 GMT -5
So, I still maintain that having some idea of where vacancies are at this point is very useful information for the members of the new register. If anyone can post this it would be most appreciated. The information you're asking for is a moving target. Subject to ALJ retirements, transfers, etc. Only a select few in the Puzzle Palace who have access to national data would know, and they are all probably sworn to secrecy. Besides, even if someone puts it up, how would you you know you're not getting trolled? If a brand new poster with no prior posting history puts up such a list, would you believe it and bet your ALJ application on it? To my knowledge, that NEVER happens. You are offered one office and one office only, take it or leave it. You may be granted a day to think about it, but you will not get offered another office as an option. And, even if we had a list of all the vacancies, that does not tell us which will be filled. IIRC, one or more of the newer offices has never had the number of ALJs they were built for. Ob53 is right. You get one offer that's not negotiable. Additionally, due to funding limitations, it's unlikely that all the offices that have ALJ vacancies will be filled up this year. Region 9, for one, seems to have too many ALJs as of a few months ago and is unlikely to be taking on any significant number of new judges. Finally, as a rule of thumb, if you really want the job, you should leave all the cities that you don't mind living for a few years on your GAL, and only eliminate the ones that you just can't stand the thought of living there. It's a buyer's market and SSA has most of the cards, so try not to be too cute about gaming the GAL. It's more likely to end up hurting you than helping you.
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Post by westernalj on Mar 16, 2014 14:53:51 GMT -5
I'm not clear on one point: You have to be in the top 3 for a particular location to make the cert. If 3 of the top scorers have a completely open GAL, it seems they would always be the top 3. Is it that once someone is counted as a top 3 for one location, they go on the register and aren't considered again in determining top 3? If so, doesn't that mean that the top 3 criteria is significantly affected by the order in which they look at each location to determine who the top 3 are?
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Post by funkyodar on Mar 16, 2014 15:15:29 GMT -5
I'm not clear on one point: You have to be in the top 3 for a particular location to make the cert. If 3 of the top scorers have a completely open GAL, it seems they would always be the top 3. Is it that once someone is counted as a top 3 for one location, they go on the register and aren't considered again in determining top 3? If so, doesn't that mean that the top 3 criteria is significantly affected by the order in which they look at each location to determine who the top 3 are? Darn tootin. That's one of the many tools they have to get who they want in a gig. And a wide gal helps and hurts. The more cities you are in the top 3 for on your gal, the more ways they have to hire you sure. But it also gives them chances to 3 strike undesirables, IMHO. As an example, lets say there is a candidate with a high score. Say 80. Lets also give that candidate vet pref. Finally, lets assume that candidate is within the top 3 for 6 cities. In 3 of those cities he is the top candidate and vet pref dictates he should be hired. In the other 3 cities say his score makes him second or third. If ssa doesn't like him, they can just look at the 3 cities where he isn't first on the list first. From my understanding, they could pass him for those 3, then 3 strike him and get him out of the way of their favorites in the 3 cities where his score was tops. Whereas, if he was only the top scorer in one or 2 cities, they couldn't 3 strike. Scores, vet status, insider status and all other factors are great. Butit is still their choice on who they like and don't like and have decades of experience using the tools they have to figure how to get who they won't and around who they don't.
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Post by westernalj on Mar 16, 2014 15:17:16 GMT -5
Funky, that sounds like an explanation for SSA as to how they handle the cert. My question relates to how OPM creates the cert.
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Post by funkyodar on Mar 16, 2014 15:30:56 GMT -5
Funky, that sounds like an explanation for SSA as to how they handle the cert. My question relates to how OPM creates the cert. Ah, sorry I misunderstood. Admittedly I dunno how that works. If I had to guess, I'd go with your idea that once you are deemed top 3 for one location on the cert you make the cert as "1" of the 3x the number of positions to be filled. Then ssa considers that person for every place for which they are actually in the top 3 until that person is determined wanted for a slot or not wanted at all. Again, purely a guess. Its bolstered somewhat by the fact that certs always have more than just 3x the slots. If one person had a wide open gal and say a 95, they would arguably take up 90 of the 270 cert positions. Then when hired ssa would have to keep going back and asking for more names. but how its actually done....? Probably have better luck discerning the recipe for coca-cola while mixing up a batch of 11 formerly secret herbs and spices. (I have had a couple judge friends tell me "I missed the cut off for the first cert by a point" or "by a tenth of a point." This would seem to indicate some adherence to the scores but doesn't seem to account for gals. so not sure about that.)
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Post by funkyodar on Mar 16, 2014 15:37:11 GMT -5
Question:
I had a judge friend tell me he thought his score from years ago was only to the tenth of a point, ie 75.5. Now, ours are to the hundredth, 75.55. Is that accurate?
If so, that would seem to lessen the chances of ties and thereby reduce the number on a cert some small amount. No?
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Post by 71stretch on Mar 16, 2014 15:42:01 GMT -5
Question: I had a judge friend tell me he thought his score from years ago was only to the tenth of a point, ie 75.5. Now, ours are to the hundredth, 75.55. Is that accurate? If so, that would seem to lessen the chances of ties and thereby reduce the number on a cert some small amount. No? They were to the hundredths in 2010 as well.. They may have been different in the further back past.
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Post by Orly on Mar 16, 2014 15:48:38 GMT -5
They were to the hundredths in 2010 as well.. They may have been different in the further back past. Just checked my 2009 NOR. It's to the hundredths as well. As for the certificate cutoff score, if I remember correctly, this information came from SSA after they received the certificate from OPM. The details of how OPM actually generates the cert is another one of those ALJ hiring mystery that we have no idea about.
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Post by 71stretch on Mar 16, 2014 15:57:43 GMT -5
They were to the hundredths in 2010 as well.. They may have been different in the further back past. Just checked my 2009 NOR. It's to the hundredths as well. As for the certificate cutoff score, if I remember correctly, this information came from SSA after they received the certificate from OPM. The details of how OPM actually generates the cert is another one of those ALJ hiring mystery that we have no idea about. We could guess pretty close to the cutoff score based on poll results for each cert, but for several of the bigger certs from 2010 on, someone here called Bob Gehlken at ODAR and asked him, and got the info each time.
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Post by robespierre on Mar 16, 2014 17:21:27 GMT -5
As for those of us thinking second cert is our sweetspot.... If the above timeline is close, there would likely be a working of the transfer list in october/early november. I wouldn't expect much movement on hiring from mid nov thru mid january due to holidays and use or lose leave. Probably mid jan cert, interviews in feb and offers in April. Long story short, second certers prolly have another year of this waiting. Funky, I don't really understand why you think of yourself as a second certer. If there are really 90 jobs available, the first cert would consist of about 290 names (90 x 3 plus a handful more). If there are 870 names on the register, which seems about right, they would have to go about one-third of the way down the register, in the abstract (290/870 = .333). According to the "refined scores poll," one-third of the way down the register takes you to 76. But we all know it's not abstract. There's the huge factor of GALs. And that factor is even more huge than anyone thought, because of all the people with tiny GALs. According to Demographic Poll 2, which I find fascinating, 20% of the pool has 3 or fewer cities on its GAL, and about 43% has 20 or fewer. To find three people for the cities with actual vacancies (which by definition are going to be mostly unpopular ones), OPM will therefore have to go well below 76. In fact, for the really unpopular cities, I could see them going down below 70. You have said that your score is middle of the pack, which I assume means the 70-75 range, and your GAL is wide open. So I think you're on the cert. (I'm posting this not just as a comment on Funky's situation, but to see if my understanding of how this thing works is correct. If it's not, I'm sure I'll be corrected, lol.)
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jmgjr
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Post by jmgjr on Mar 16, 2014 18:14:49 GMT -5
Funkyodar and others. I am on the register, wide open GAL, estimate top 1/3 or a bit lower. I know I can only control my interview and references. Nonetheless, not that I have a choice, but if I am in the first cert I am near the bottom, getting passed over always a possibility. Would I have better odds in a second cert where I am closer to the top of the cert?
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Post by funkyodar on Mar 16, 2014 18:19:23 GMT -5
I hope you are right RP. I guess my feelings that I may miss the first cert stem from the middle range score and the cert likely encompassing the top 3rd. But you are right they may dip down to my range when gals are considered.
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Post by funkyodar on Mar 16, 2014 18:24:51 GMT -5
Funkyodar and others. I am on the register, wide open GAL, estimate top 1/3 or a bit lower. I know I can only control my interview and references. Nonetheless, not that I have a choice, but if I am in the first cert I am near the bottom, getting passed over always a possibility. Would I have better odds in a second cert where I am closer to the top of the cert? My guess is no. scores seem to matter only in regard to getting on the cert. Whichever one you make, getting a job will depend on your references and interview. So I don't think you have any greater shot at landing a job with a higher score on a second cert than with a middle or lower score in comparison on a first cert. The one caveat is the second cert may have fewer vets that get hiring preference as many of them will be higher scorers that were either hired or struck on the first cert. You should relax tho. With a top 3rd score and a wide open gal you will almost assuredly make the first cert. None of that will matter if you blow the interview though.
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jmgjr
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Post by jmgjr on Mar 16, 2014 18:31:33 GMT -5
Thanks Funkyodar.....I knew you would set me straight. It's been a long year of waiting....now things are speeding up at least through the first cert.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2014 18:36:14 GMT -5
In my opinion a person in the funkmeisters situation is almost assured on the first cert b/c of the wide open GAL. As has been stated many times, GAL is crucial and the poll stats (20% 3 or fewer and 43% 20 or fewer) is telling. Of course there are hundreds that didn't partake in the poll, but that includes many who don't know about the forum or the vast amount of info on the forum. Of those who don't know about th forum, I have to believe those individuals (in general) are not as knowledgeable about the importance of an extensive GAL.
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Post by funkyodar on Mar 16, 2014 18:48:25 GMT -5
Warning; the following is culled from old posts and possibly erroneous rumors and statements from others. It may be entirely wrong, once right but now wrong or wrong in small but important parts. Nevertheless, I am basing my understanding of the way this works on it. But then, I'm entirely new to this too. In short, YMMV.
From what I have discerned on here, once your interview is over, you won't be numerically graded like on the SI. Instead, you will be deemed "highly recommended" "recommended" or "not reccommended."
If you are NR it's over. Your score, gal, references or anything else won't matter.
Conversely, if you are HR, they will find a way to hire you irregardless of your score. You may even get by a slightly negative reference. Your only obstacle would be if your gal is so limited they can't find a way to make you and another HR an offer.
R is where it gets interesting. It essentially means they can live with you. You will lose out to HRs even those with scores below yours. When in competition with other Rs, who knows what all goes into consideration. Most likely vet status, references, insider status, whether your gal lets them use you to get to others they want... Maybe even your score in comparison to the other R you are competing with. They have to choose based on something.
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Post by robespierre on Mar 16, 2014 19:10:28 GMT -5
Funkyodar and others. I am on the register, wide open GAL, estimate top 1/3 or a bit lower. I know I can only control my interview and references. Nonetheless, not that I have a choice, but if I am in the first cert I am near the bottom, getting passed over always a possibility. Would I have better odds in a second cert where I am closer to the top of the cert? I think your scenario is the one that veterans of this process are referring to when they say "scores don't matter." Conventional wisdom is that once you get on a cert, the outcome of the interview, your GAL and references are what matters. That you scored 76 while someone else on the first cert scored 80 ... or that you scored 76 while someone else on the second cert scored 73, won't matter much if at all. BTW, I agree with Funky that if your score is "top 1/3 or a bit lower" (by which I assume you mean 75-76) and your GAL is "wide open" (by which I assume you mean 150+ cities), you'll very probably be on the first cert. And if they like you and your references check out, you'll be in great shape since they can put you in 150+ different places.
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Post by robespierre on Mar 16, 2014 19:18:09 GMT -5
In my opinion a person in the funkmeisters situation is almost assured on the first cert b/c of the wide open GAL. As has been stated many times, GAL is crucial and the poll stats (20% 3 or fewer and 43% 20 or fewer) is telling. Of course there are hundreds that didn't partake in the poll, but that includes many who don't know about the forum or the vast amount of info on the forum. Of those who don't know about th forum, I have to believe those individuals (in general) are not as knowledgeable about the importance of an extensive GAL. Yeah, I really agree with your last point. I think there's a "silent majority" of hundreds of people on the register who didn't vote in the polls or don't even read this forum at all. And since they are not as super-motivated to get the job as those of us on this forum, they have lower scores and smaller GALs. In fact, I suspect the 73 median score reflected by our poll is really 71 or 72 for the whole register population, and that the proportion of people with 20 or fewer GAL cities might be over 50% rather than the 43% poll result. But it's sheer speculation.
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