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Post by 71stretch on Mar 18, 2014 11:12:55 GMT -5
It's not just score, it's GAL. A high score with a narrow GAL (including one so narrow that you don't show up on a cert) won't get you anywhere.
I would see a cutoff score, with a cert of 300ish, somewhere in the mid 60's. Depends on how the GALs shake out.
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Post by futuressaalj on Mar 18, 2014 11:13:30 GMT -5
Any score is a good score. There have been so many qualified people dismissed along the way, that just having a score is good. But based on what you think about the size of the register, the size of the first cert, and the polling data, what do you think a "good" score is, and what that might mean? Dog its all relative to GAL. A 70 with wide open GAL is better than an 82 with a GAL listing 10 popular cities that have no vacancies or where new hires are never placed like LA or NYC. |
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Post by funkyodar on Mar 18, 2014 11:21:32 GMT -5
I'm not sure that can be answered Dev. Way too many unkowns. But that has never stopped us from speculating before.
Guesstimations:
In our polling, scores between 73 and 74 appear to be the mean. So, arguably anything above the average is "good." There is some belief that those that participate on the board may have been better informed about the process and did some higher than those that didn't even know of the board. So its possible the boards average score is slightly higher than the average of the register as a whole. But that's entirely unprovable so I am gonna go with the 73 number.
The odar cert will reportedly be for 90 slots thus 270 cert positions. But its also known there are extras on the cert so most have swagged 300.
It has also been estimated that the board has between 25 and 33% participation from all candidates. So, using the 25% guess, the 220 poll respondents equates to a register size of 880. 300 cert positions from that size register means 34% of reg folks on the cert.
Again, based on our highly suspect polls, looks like a 76 gets you in the top 34%.
But that's faulty. Many with higher scores won't make the cert due to limited gals (last polling indicated 19% of respondents only had 3 or less cities and another 20% had between 4 and 20 cities). So some lower scores with wider gals will make the cert in the place of higher scorers with limited gals.
CAVEAT : All of the above is most assuredly equine excrement.
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Post by FlaTreeFarm on Mar 18, 2014 11:28:07 GMT -5
As long as we are speculating, if you figure 75% on the register are not in this board, that group is likely to have a higher percentage of people who don't know the importance of the GAL, so they may have a higher proportion with small GALs.
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Post by futuressaalj on Mar 18, 2014 11:33:02 GMT -5
More speculation--a wanabe with a 60 who is fluent in Spanish and listed all PR cities is golden
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Post by robespierre on Mar 18, 2014 12:38:17 GMT -5
As I understand the process, once you make it onto a cert, it is your interview and references that matter. The score is only relevant to allow you to be High Three in some city and thus get on the cert in the first place. So a "good" score is one that gets you on that first cert. There's no one such score that applies to everyone, since it depends on your GAL (the bigger the GAL, the better the chance of making the first cert). But I agree 100% with Funky's calculations above: a score of 76 can be viewed as a sort of "baseline," since that puts you about two-thirds of the way up the register and the first cert is likely to pull in about one-third of the register population. So, 76 is, VERY GENERALLY SPEAKING, a good score.
Of course, people with less than 76 but wide-open GALs are likely to be High Three in some unpopular cities, so the first cert will pull in some sub-76 scorers. And future certs (assuming there are any) will go further down the register. So I think in some sense you have a "good score" if you are within shoutin' distance of 76. But since the results show a bell curve, i.e., about two-thirds of the scorers packed within one standard deviation from the mean, shoutin' distance means just a few points below. Let's say 73, since that is also apparently the median. By this reasoning, 73 can also be viewed as a "good score."
Being below 73 certainly doesn't prevent you from getting on a cert. In fact, tons of such folks who have big GALs and a little bit of luck will get on certs. Especially if there are numerous certs, as there was with the last register. So in a sense, any score that gets you on the register, and thus into the big dance, is "good." But again, 73 or 76 would be the better benchmarks.
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Post by Gaidin on Mar 18, 2014 13:35:21 GMT -5
As I understand the process, once you make it onto a cert, it is your interview and references that matter. The score is only relevant to allow you to be High Three in some city and thus get on the cert in the first place. So a "good" score is one that gets you on that first cert. There's no one such score that applies to everyone, since it depends on your GAL (the bigger the GAL, the better the chance of making the first cert). But I agree 100% with Funky's calculations above: a score of 76 can be viewed as a sort of "baseline," since that puts you about two-thirds of the way up the register and the first cert is likely to pull in about one-third of the register population. So, 76 is, VERY GENERALLY SPEAKING, a good score. Of course, people with less than 76 but wide-open GALs are likely to be High Three in some unpopular cities, so the first cert will pull in some sub-76 scorers. And future certs (assuming there are any) will go further down the register. So I think in some sense you have a "good score" if you are within shoutin' distance of 76. But since the results show a bell curve, i.e., about two-thirds of the scorers packed within one standard deviation from the mean, shoutin' distance means just a few points below. Let's say 73, since that is also apparently the median. By this reasoning, 73 can also be viewed as a "good score." Being below 73 certainly doesn't prevent you from getting on a cert. In fact, tons of such folks who have big GALs and a little bit of luck will get on certs. Especially if there are numerous certs, as there was with the last register. So in a sense, any score that gets you on the register, and thus into the big dance, is "good." But again, 73 or 76 would be the better benchmarks. I will take this even further down the rabbit hole (or up the horse's nethers if you will) 24 or just shy of 11% of the poll respondents reported a score of 73. However that 73 is everything from 73.00 - 73.99 and I have to believe that those .01's of a percent will matter to who gets on a cert at some point. That being said a good score is one that gets you on a cert. If you have what would generally be a low score but you are willing to go to East Crapland's satellite office in Outer Crapland then it might be high 3 and you're in the game. |
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Post by robespierre on Mar 18, 2014 13:45:44 GMT -5
As I understand the process, once you make it onto a cert, it is your interview and references that matter. The score is only relevant to allow you to be High Three in some city and thus get on the cert in the first place. So a "good" score is one that gets you on that first cert. There's no one such score that applies to everyone, since it depends on your GAL (the bigger the GAL, the better the chance of making the first cert). But I agree 100% with Funky's calculations above: a score of 76 can be viewed as a sort of "baseline," since that puts you about two-thirds of the way up the register and the first cert is likely to pull in about one-third of the register population. So, 76 is, VERY GENERALLY SPEAKING, a good score. Of course, people with less than 76 but wide-open GALs are likely to be High Three in some unpopular cities, so the first cert will pull in some sub-76 scorers. And future certs (assuming there are any) will go further down the register. So I think in some sense you have a "good score" if you are within shoutin' distance of 76. But since the results show a bell curve, i.e., about two-thirds of the scorers packed within one standard deviation from the mean, shoutin' distance means just a few points below. Let's say 73, since that is also apparently the median. By this reasoning, 73 can also be viewed as a "good score." Being below 73 certainly doesn't prevent you from getting on a cert. In fact, tons of such folks who have big GALs and a little bit of luck will get on certs. Especially if there are numerous certs, as there was with the last register. So in a sense, any score that gets you on the register, and thus into the big dance, is "good." But again, 73 or 76 would be the better benchmarks. I will take this even further down the rabbit hole (or up the horse's nethers if you will) 24 or just shy of 11% of the poll respondents reported a score of 73. However that 73 is everything from 73.00 - 73.99 and I have to believe that those .01's of a percent will matter to who gets on a cert at some point. That being said a good score is one that gets you on a cert. If you have what would generally be a low score but you are willing to go to East Crapland's satellite office in Outer Crapland then it might be high 3 and you're in the game. Gaidin, you raise an interesting point in your last paragraph. I could be wrong, but I think there is a hard core within the register (maybe 10-15% of the population? I'm guessing) that will go literally anywhere to become an ALJ. So even if Applicant X is willing to go to the Outer Crapland satellite office, there is going to be about 100 others also willing. Now, many of them will be High 3 for more desirable cities, and that will clear the field for Applicant X to some extent. But not all of them. So Applicant X will still need a score better than a lot of others in order to be High 3 for Outer Crapland. So even someone willing to go to the least desirable office imaginable will need a decent score. (Mid-60s? Again, total guess.) I know you're not saying otherwise. Just my two cents. |
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Post by peacemaker on Mar 18, 2014 14:33:14 GMT -5
I apologize in advance if this question has been asked and answered. This Board has been the source of much helpful information, some reassurance, and on occasion, some alarm. So I have not always followed it very closely. (Hence, for example, my limited GAL.) But my question is: does the Agency interview everyone on the cert, even those with relatively low scores?
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Post by 71stretch on Mar 18, 2014 14:36:06 GMT -5
I apologize in advance if this question has been asked and answered. This Board has been the source of much helpful information, some reassurance, and on occasion, some alarm. So I have not always followed it very closely. (Hence, for example, my limited GAL.) But my question is: does the Agency interview everyone on the cert, even those with relatively low scores? Yes. And, you get only one interview per register, regardless of how many times you make a cert from that register. |
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Post by hopefalj on Mar 18, 2014 16:40:15 GMT -5
Any score is a good score. There have been so many qualified people dismissed along the way, that just having a score is good. But based on what you think about the size of the register, the size of the first cert, and the polling data, what do you think a "good" score is, and what that might mean? 42... Which is the answer to the ultimate question of life, the universe, and everything. |
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Post by JudgeRatty on Mar 18, 2014 16:49:43 GMT -5
Any score is a good score. There have been so many qualified people dismissed along the way, that just having a score is good. But based on what you think about the size of the register, the size of the first cert, and the polling data, what do you think a "good" score is, and what that might mean? 42... Which is the answer to the ultimate question of life, the universe, and everything. Ha! Loved that movie! |
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Post by mcb on Mar 18, 2014 17:11:49 GMT -5
"What is a good score?"
One that gets you hired.
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Post by jessejames on Mar 18, 2014 18:36:38 GMT -5
MCB has the most accurate response to the question.
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Post by privateatty on Mar 18, 2014 19:05:15 GMT -5
mcb is so spot on. Two years from now no score will matter. Most CALJs and line Judges at other Agencies started at ODAR. Do you think they compare scores at cocktail hour?
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Post by Orly on Mar 18, 2014 19:06:36 GMT -5
You got it all wrong, it's suppose to be done this way:  Alternatively, my favorite:   |
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Post by FlaTreeFarm on Mar 18, 2014 19:10:21 GMT -5
That's a keeper!
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Post by futuressaalj on Mar 18, 2014 19:22:33 GMT -5
That Captain Obvious is perfect for th AR thumping AG Branch Officer Corps.
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Post by privateatty on Mar 18, 2014 19:34:00 GMT -5
I was trying to be subtle. Most of the time the orly way is best, though. "Do you think they compare scores at cocktail hour?" Do you know they don't? If I had the 96 I'd be the Richard Sherman of ALJs at cocktail hour. That whole hour would be shaken, not stirred, and talking about my 96. No you wouldn't, for if you did you would suffer the same fate as our dear departed (think "big plans") friend here. |
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Post by northbend on Mar 18, 2014 22:19:05 GMT -5
Anyone married to a social science researcher? I'm thinking that there may be a self-reporting bias affecting the reporting of NOR scores. A tendency for those of us who are keenly interested in this position, and thus perhaps the higher scorers (that doesn't describe me), to report our scores, whereas those who are discouraged by their scores may report less frequently. I'd guesstimate a 10% skewing upward of scores reported, but I'm really only guessing. Curious if someone knows this stuff. I think there is knowledge out there to be had on this, but I've only brushed up against it.
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