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Post by JudgeRatty on Apr 22, 2014 10:57:36 GMT -5
If I ever get to Falls Church I am hoping we can form a soft ball/kick ball league for the training where the East Crapland Eagles take on the West Crapland Warthogs after hours. I call WCW! LOL! Lurker/DIBS we miss you! Besides WCW makes it sound like championship wrestling.
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Post by gary on Apr 22, 2014 11:52:32 GMT -5
OPM could (but probably won't) pick the certs this way:
They are selecting 90 ALJs. So at the end of the day there will be 90 hires and up to 60 three-struck. That's 150 total.
If everyone had GALs that included all 45 cities, OPM could just put the same 150 top scorers, plus a few more to account for dropouts, on each cert. But of course there are many whose GALs will include one or more, but less than all, 45 locations. And there needs to be at least 5 candidates for each vacancy per the intelligence we've been told about the cert request.
What OPM could do is take each cert separately and determine the names on it as if it was the last for which SSA made its choice(s). This would mean looking at the top 152 scorers (150 they may use up plus 2 to insure 5 at the time of selection) whose GALs included the city having the particular vacancy. If there were enough individuals in the 152 with single location GALs to fill that location's vacancies and let SSA do its three striking and have at least 5 at the point of the final selection, the cert need only include all the names down to the lowest scoring of the single-city GAL candidates they would need. Otherwise the cert would be the full 152 names.
OPM could do this with each city to get all 45 certs.
They would probably want to add some more names for each cert to account for probable/likely "shrinkage" due to people dropping out or dying. They could decide how many more they need based on their experience with past registers.
I have no idea how many total names this process would put on one or more certs. It all depends on GALs and scores for each location.
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Post by valkyrie on Apr 22, 2014 12:46:56 GMT -5
If funk ran opm: Opm receives 45 individual city cert requests for a total of 90 judges. For the sake of this example, assume its a perfect 2 judges for each locale (tho this works if its not, as well). Further, let's assume ssa reaquested 5 names per slot (as offered by the source, but could work with 3 per or any number really). So, opm needs to cert 10 people for each city for a total of 450 cert positions. Arrange the cities in some fashion, alphabetically, the order ssa submitted the reaquests, doesn't matter. Now you have them numbered 1 to 45. Start at #1 and pull the top 10 scorers with that city on their gal. Do the same for each city. Anyone that appears on just one city's cert, count that person as 1 of the 450. IE: Andy is in the top 10 for only City 1. He counts as 1 cert slot. Beth is on the certs for City 1 and 2, but no others. She counts as 2 of the 450 slots. Carl is on Cities 1, 2 and 3. He counts as 3 slots. Now Dave is where it gets tricky. Dave is in the top 10 for each city and has all 45 cities in his gal. But, we know that Dave, under the 3 strike rule, is only entitled to 3 bona fide considerations. After that, he is likely to be hired or 3 struck. At the hiring agencies discretion, of course. So, we don't count dave as 45 cert positions. We count him as 3. He counts against the 10 for cities 1, 2 and 3. He is on the certs for cities 4 thru 45, but isn't counted against their 10 per. So, now, cities 4 thru 45 actually go thru the top 11 scorers. Eva, who wasn't in the top 10 for any of the 45 cities, but was #11 for Valpraiso, Toledo and Grand Rapids, is now on the cert for those three cities by virtue of the assumption that Dave will be hired or struck and thus removed from all consideration before those cities are worked. So, essentially, everyone gets consideration for the cities within which they are top 10 candidates but no single person counts as more than 3 of the 450 slots. This makes a lot of sense. I would add that I'm not sure the insiders are taking a long enough view of ODAR's desire to get more insiders in as ALJs. There has been a lot of speculation about how much heart burn the agency will have if it takes a while to get the desired number of insiders. I will accept that ODAR does in fact desire to hire insiders. Mostly because I don't have any reason to doubt it. But if the last register lasted 6 years and ODAR was still going back to OPM to get tweaks made (i.e. letting people add cities to their GAL) so that they could get to the favored sons or daughters why do you think that they will be mad if it takes a year or two to get to them off this register. Bureaucracies are like river barges they almost always get where they are going but it takes forever to get there and they look like crap doing it. Oh and woe be unto you if they have to make a course correction. Most of the whole insider/outsider thing really doesn't have a lot to do with who is the better candidate, so much as who is a "known" candidate. As Hopefalj said, "known" could mean that you are known to be a fantastic worker with excellent people skills, or it could mean that you are known to be a complete ass. Now ODAR, (and me), would likely assume that the number of known insiders that are worth hiring would not be enough to cover ALJ openings. However, it would obviously still be very desirable for ODAR to at least have a decent pool of insiders that they could choose from, which they were not provided this time around. I am NOT trying to start an insider/outsider pissing match. This is just basic human resources. Just because this hiring process is a typically heavily regulated byzantine government carnival show, there is still an intelligent person somewhere at the end of the process who would like to make a rational hiring decision for a high level official with the potential to do great work or great harm for his agency, and the agency is essentially stuck with the offical for life. In this situation, HR managers would much rather recruit a known quality, rather than make a hire off a couple of interviews and a resume.
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Post by 71stretch on Apr 22, 2014 12:53:41 GMT -5
This cert needs to come out soon, so that this thread can come to a merciful end. I think there's a support group or 12 step program for serial speculators,... if not, there should be.
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Post by funkyodar on Apr 22, 2014 12:57:41 GMT -5
What's worse observer, the serial speculators or those that just can't help themselves and must read threads they know are full of nothing but the musings of serial speculators? And, rehab is for quitters!
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Post by moopigsdad on Apr 22, 2014 13:02:35 GMT -5
I am thinking funky's first shared information/rumor about the certs not occurring until May are probably true. If not, it is certainly going to be close enough to May on the calendar to say the information/rumor was correct.
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Post by mamaru on Apr 22, 2014 13:10:13 GMT -5
I'm fairly certain that could be a possibility.
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Post by moopigsdad on Apr 22, 2014 13:24:26 GMT -5
The cert will be here Friday. It will either be here then, if not a little before, or a little to a long time afterwards. I tend to think there is a 50/50 chance that the likely certainty of what I just said may or may not be true. Devildog, I couldn't agree more with your post.
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Post by 71stretch on Apr 22, 2014 13:43:03 GMT -5
What's worse observer, the serial speculators or those that just can't help themselves and must read threads they know are full of nothing but the musings of serial speculators? And, rehab is for quitters! Even a blind pig finds a truffle once in awhile, as they say. You never know when some nugget of information might drop in amongst the kudzu of speculation.
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Post by anotherfed on Apr 22, 2014 14:23:35 GMT -5
"Hi. My name is AnotherFed, and I am a compulsive mail/board checker..."
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Post by moopigsdad on Apr 22, 2014 14:26:43 GMT -5
Hi anotherfed. (LOL!) I wonder if there is a twelve step program for your addiction.
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Post by JudgeRatty on Apr 22, 2014 14:29:11 GMT -5
Hi anotherfed. (LOL!) I wonder if there is a twelve step program for your addiction. Yes, it is called being hired as an ALJ.
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Post by anotherfed on Apr 22, 2014 14:31:23 GMT -5
Hi anotherfed. (LOL!) I wonder if there is a twelve step program for your addiction. Yes, it is called being hired as an ALJ. Doesn't this Board serve a dual purpose? Isn't it the disease AND the cure? Or at least the support group?
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Post by 71stretch on Apr 22, 2014 14:33:17 GMT -5
Yes, it is called being hired as an ALJ. Doesn't this Board serve a dual purpose? Isn't it the disease AND the cure? Or at least the support group? Some call it support group, "enablers" works, too.
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Post by dudeabides on Apr 22, 2014 15:36:18 GMT -5
Now don't say you can't swear off mail/board checking . . . . its easy!
I've done it a thousand times!
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Post by sandiferhands (old) on Apr 22, 2014 15:47:28 GMT -5
The cert will be here Friday. It will either be here then, if not a little before, or a little to a long time afterwards. I tend to think there is a 50/50 chance that the likely certainty of what I just said may or may not be true. ISWYDT. LMAO.
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Post by privateatty on Apr 22, 2014 16:03:25 GMT -5
Hi anotherfed. (LOL!) I wonder if there is a twelve step program for your addiction. Yes, it is called being hired as an ALJ. Ah, an interesting presumption that is true 98% of the time. But then there are the dozen or so ALJs who populate these pages from time to time to ostensibly offer little nuggets of wisdom, but in reality are like somewhat punch drunk old prize-fighters who spool up old films of past fights--remembering the slings and arrows along the way..
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Post by JudgeRatty on Apr 22, 2014 16:07:33 GMT -5
Yes, it is called being hired as an ALJ. Ah, an interesting presumption that is true 98% of the time. But then there are the dozen or so ALJs who populate these pages from time to time to ostensibly offer little nuggets of wisdom, but in reality are like somewhat punch drunk old prize-fighters who spool up old films of past fights--remembering the slings and arrows along the way.. Yeah, but at least your nuggets of wisdom do not rise to the level of OCD / addiction like those of us who are currently seeking the grail! LOL! And thank goodness for those nuggets! Without those, this would be a blog
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Post by sandiferhands (old) on Apr 23, 2014 11:05:24 GMT -5
Not to hijack, but this seems as good a place as any: Which of the NHCs are likely to have openings filled from this cert?
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Post by moopigsdad on Apr 23, 2014 11:18:28 GMT -5
I think St. Louis and Chicago are likely to have openings. Not sure about Falls Church or Baltimore. I don't believe Albuquerque will have any openings. However, with all of that being said, any of this may change completely if SSA decides to place new ALJs (over and above each NHC's previous ALJ counts) at the NHCs.
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