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Post by orchid on Sept 30, 2014 11:11:46 GMT -5
Questions to ponder: 1.What's the latest on size of this cert? 2.Number of judges projected to be hired? 3. When would the start date be? Any theories and intel welcome!
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Post by Ace Midnight on Sept 30, 2014 11:47:46 GMT -5
Best guess is that to reach the original goal of ~200 - this group will be 3 waves of ~45 each (consistent with the largest group that can reasonably be accommodated by the current training facilities) for a total of ~135. Of course, we expected ~90 last time for similar reasons.
But that's all we have to go on right now. IF the goal was 200 at the beginning of the year, and that has not changed, we expect ~135 this time around, possibly spaced out in batches of 45.
ETA: And the above is, of course, the key number of hires.
As far as total number of people getting emails? That would project as about 200 to 225, using last time around as a guide. There should be ~80 or so remaining from last time, so a "new names" number of 120 to 150 is not unreasonable, depending on GALs of those from the first cert and the number of those 3-struck by ODAR, if any.
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Post by redryder on Sept 30, 2014 13:14:31 GMT -5
I think everyone was surprised at the small number of actual candidates for the last round of hiring (less than 2 per slot based on the anticipated hire of 90). But now OCALJ has seen what to expect in response to its request for certificates, and can make future requests to insure a larger pool. This is easy enough to accomplish. For example, if they asked for 50 names per site the last time, they may ask for 100 names per site this time. They won't have 100 people competing per slot due to candiates making several lists.
With a larger pool, one could reasonably expect a larger hire. It has been known to happen in the past with the hiring of 3 to 4 classes, and staggered report dates over a 4 month period.
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Post by gary on Sept 30, 2014 13:45:38 GMT -5
I believe SSA fills out forms requesting certs to hire for a particular number of positions in specific locations. It is then OPM's responsibility to provide lists of eligibles with sufficient candidates for SSA to have three to consider for each position. SSA does not get a number of names based on how many they request per position.
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Post by Gaidin on Sept 30, 2014 13:50:54 GMT -5
I think the absolute earliest start date is January 11. That is the first full pay period in the 2015 calendar year. If you assume that date and I really have no idea how realistic that date is. Then the second class could not start until February 8 and third class could not start until March 8. That assumes they want to run the classes as close to continuously as possible. It also assumes that they work around the holidays January 19 and February 16.
As I understand, the training cadre is made up of working ALJs and it seems unlikely to me that they could keep ALJs away from their cases between February 1 and April 26. If so then they have to either rotate the cadre or have longer gaps between the classes. I don't know which is more likely.
I think Ace is right except I think it will be on the high end. I say at least 225 people pulled for this next set of certs.
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Post by hopefalj on Sept 30, 2014 14:16:31 GMT -5
Best guess is that to reach the original goal of ~200 - this group will be 3 waves of ~45 each (consistent with the largest group that can reasonably be accommodated by the current training facilities) for a total of ~135. Of course, we expected ~90 last time for similar reasons. But that's all we have to go on right now. IF the goal was 200 at the beginning of the year, and that has not changed, we expect ~135 this time around, possibly spaced out in batches of 45. ETA: And the above is, of course, the key number of hires. As far as total number of people getting emails? That would project as about 200 to 225, using last time around as a guide. There should be ~80 or so remaining from last time, so a "new names" number of 120 to 150 is not unreasonable, depending on GALs of those from the first cert and the number of those 3-struck by ODAR, if any. If this cert is limited numerically like the last one, I don't believe you'll see anywhere near 80 of the first cert holdovers on cert two. Geographic listings and GAL restrictions would likely eliminate at least a handful of folks, and my guess is that there will be folks removed via three striking.
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Post by JudgeRatty on Sept 30, 2014 16:51:46 GMT -5
Best guess is that to reach the original goal of ~200 - this group will be 3 waves of ~45 each (consistent with the largest group that can reasonably be accommodated by the current training facilities) for a total of ~135. Of course, we expected ~90 last time for similar reasons. But that's all we have to go on right now. IF the goal was 200 at the beginning of the year, and that has not changed, we expect ~135 this time around, possibly spaced out in batches of 45. ETA: And the above is, of course, the key number of hires. As far as total number of people getting emails? That would project as about 200 to 225, using last time around as a guide. There should be ~80 or so remaining from last time, so a "new names" number of 120 to 150 is not unreasonable, depending on GALs of those from the first cert and the number of those 3-struck by ODAR, if any. If this cert is limited numerically like the last one, I don't believe you'll see anywhere near 80 of the first cert holdovers on cert two. Geographic listings and GAL restrictions would likely eliminate at least a handful of folks, and my guess is that there will be folks removed via three striking. Agree. There have always been those who were three struck. I do not imagine this new register will be any different in that regard. Of course, it is hard to tell if a person has been 3 struck until much later in the process hence just some of the frustration by many in the years past. I am looking forward to seeing more movement and having all the polls spring up once the next certs come out! LOL!
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Post by gary on Sept 30, 2014 18:01:02 GMT -5
Happy Fiscal New Year everyone! Celebrate responsibly so you may wish grey-bearded FY14 with his sickle a fond farewell and welcome Baby FY15, with his diaper made of currency, to his rightful place front and center.
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Post by cheesy on Oct 1, 2014 0:27:09 GMT -5
Happy Fiscal New Year everyone! Celebrate responsibly so you may wish grey-bearded FY14 with his sickle a fond farewell and welcome Baby FY15, with his diaper made of currency, to his rightful place front and center. How many extra bonus points do I get for being the first post of the Fiscal New Year? C'mon, Lucky 15!
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Post by maxlaw on Oct 1, 2014 5:34:35 GMT -5
Buried in the latest union newsletter: "The Agency hopes to have 130 new ALJs in place before the end of the 2nd quarter FY15. This does not include the 71 new ALJs hired in FY14 (70 new judges and one ALJ who transferred in)." My notes: 1. That's March 2015 for those still learning Federalese 2. If there are budget/debt ceiling issues don't be shocked if things change. The same letter did mention that hired had been authorized during the continuing resolution. Good luck.
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Post by JudgeRatty on Oct 1, 2014 6:25:45 GMT -5
Buried in the latest union newsletter: "The Agency hopes to have 130 new ALJs in place before the end of the 2nd quarter FY15. This does not include the 71 new ALJs hired in FY14 (70 new judges and one ALJ who transferred in)." My notes: 1. That's March 2015 for those still learning Federalese 2. If there are budget/debt ceiling issues don't be shocked if things change. The same letter did mention that hired had been authorized during the continuing resolution. Good luck. Thank you Maxlaw! This jives with the 200 total we had been given all along. Awesome!
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Post by Gaidin on Oct 1, 2014 8:40:31 GMT -5
Buried in the latest union newsletter: "The Agency hopes to have 130 new ALJs in place before the end of the 2nd quarter FY15. This does not include the 71 new ALJs hired in FY14 (70 new judges and one ALJ who transferred in)." My notes: 1. That's March 2015 for those still learning Federalese 2. If there are budget/debt ceiling issues don't be shocked if things change. The same letter did mention that hired had been authorized during the continuing resolution. Good luck. 3 cheers for Maxlaw!!!!!! This is great news.
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Post by Ace Midnight on Oct 1, 2014 8:52:43 GMT -5
If this cert is limited numerically like the last one, I don't believe you'll see anywhere near 80 of the first cert holdovers on cert two. Geographic listings and GAL restrictions would likely eliminate at least a handful of folks, and my guess is that there will be folks removed via three striking. Maybe so. I'm even rethinking my high number of 225, so, if you're right, and it is more like 55 holdovers (mostly high scores, too, relatively speaking), it could be approaching 200 new names. I'm guessing they can still do that in 3 weeks and change - again, assuming they will need to get the interviews completed by Thanksgiving. I also agree that the first reports will probably be January 11th (first day in the office January 12th), second batch on February 8th (9th), third batch March 8th(9th), to align with pay periods. So, training classes starting on February 2nd, March 2nd, and March 30th?
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Post by mamaru on Oct 1, 2014 9:11:26 GMT -5
Could it be? Yes it could. Something special, something good - due any day!
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Post by anotherfed on Oct 1, 2014 10:38:23 GMT -5
Could it be? Yes it could. Something special, something good - due any day! Love West Side Story -- excellent quote, Mamaru!
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MW2
Full Member
Posts: 49
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Post by MW2 on Oct 1, 2014 11:26:38 GMT -5
If this cert is limited numerically like the last one, I don't believe you'll see anywhere near 80 of the first cert holdovers on cert two. Geographic listings and GAL restrictions would likely eliminate at least a handful of folks, and my guess is that there will be folks removed via three striking. Agree. There have always been those who were three struck. I do not imagine this new register will be any different in that regard. Of course, it is hard to tell if a person has been 3 struck until much later in the process hence just some of the frustration by many in the years past. I am looking forward to seeing more movement and having all the polls spring up once the next certs come out! LOL! I'm not sure it will take very long to figure out if one has been three struck. I believe any first certers who will be considered in the second cert will be asked to rank their preferences for available locations just like they were during the first cert. Although they clearly will not be interviewed again or have their references rechecked, the ranking part of the process should be repeated due to the difference in available locations. I am assuming that if one has been three struck they will not be asked to rank their preferences. So when the second cert comes out I expect some first certers to get an email asking them to rank their preferences and that some first certers will not get any such email. If this happens, it seems it would be a safe bet any first certers who were not asked to rank their preferences have been three struck. One possible exception would be those with a very small GAL who had a location available on the first cert but do not on the second cert.
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Post by sealaw90 on Oct 1, 2014 12:16:33 GMT -5
Agree. There have always been those who were three struck. I do not imagine this new register will be any different in that regard. Of course, it is hard to tell if a person has been 3 struck until much later in the process hence just some of the frustration by many in the years past. I am looking forward to seeing more movement and having all the polls spring up once the next certs come out! LOL! I'm not sure it will take very long to figure out if one has been three struck. I believe any first certers who will be considered in the second cert will be asked to rank their preferences for available locations just like they were during the first cert. Although they clearly will not be interviewed again or have their references rechecked, the ranking part of the process should be repeated due to the difference in available locations. I am assuming that if one has been three struck they will not be asked to rank their preferences. So when the second cert comes out I expect some first certers to get an email asking them to rank their preferences and that some first certers will not get any such email. If this happens, it seems it would be a safe bet any first certers who were not asked to rank their preferences have been three struck. One possible exception would be those with a very small GAL who had a location available on the first cert but do not on the second cert. Mw2, while you make some good points, I beg to differ on your assumption of being three struck. It is not a safe bet to assume you've been three struck after the first round of hiring if you do not get an email asking you to rank the cities you show up on for the second cert - unless you has a wide open GAL - then you might indeed have a problem. For the large majority of folks on the register, they do not have wide-open GALs but rather narrow GALS. That is a big exception, and I don't want folks to freak out if/when they don't get an email on the first day of emails going out to candidates. Here's another theory - ODAR may send emails to the Scobies first to see what cities get ranked, then plug in the first certers, and request them to update their originally ranked list - or not. We are all assuming that this is a kinder-gentler ODAR who cares about where you are going to work and wants you to be happy - but I try not to drink too much Kool-Aid - so I don't assume they will necessarily ask the first certers to update their list unless ODAR needs you to update the list for their purposes. It will be interesting to see how the second round proceeds because this is uncharted territory for everyone. Stay thirsty, October is 6 months before the end of March - it takes 5 months to complete the entire hiring process (think back - it was April certs to August hiring this year) plus we got some major holidays to contend with. We are almost around the corner to the second round . . .
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Post by hopefalj on Oct 1, 2014 12:53:50 GMT -5
I'm not sure it will take very long to figure out if one has been three struck. I believe any first certers who will be considered in the second cert will be asked to rank their preferences for available locations just like they were during the first cert. Although they clearly will not be interviewed again or have their references rechecked, the ranking part of the process should be repeated due to the difference in available locations. I am assuming that if one has been three struck they will not be asked to rank their preferences. So when the second cert comes out I expect some first certers to get an email asking them to rank their preferences and that some first certers will not get any such email. If this happens, it seems it would be a safe bet any first certers who were not asked to rank their preferences have been three struck. One possible exception would be those with a very small GAL who had a location available on the first cert but do not on the second cert. Mw2, while you make some good points, I beg to differ on your assumption of being three struck. It is not a safe bet to assume you've been three struck after the first round of hiring if you do not get an email asking you to rank the cities you show up on for the second cert - unless you has a wide open GAL - then you might indeed have a problem. For the large majority of folks on the register, they do not have wide-open GALs but rather narrow GALS. That is a big exception, and I don't want folks to freak out if/when they don't get an email on the first day of emails going out to candidates. Here's another theory - ODAR may send emails to the Scobies first to see what cities get ranked, then plug in the first certers, and request them to update their originally ranked list - or not. We are all assuming that this is a kinder-gentler ODAR who cares about where you are going to work and wants you to be happy - but I try not to drink too much Kool-Aid - so I don't assume they will necessarily ask the first certers to update their list unless ODAR needs you to update the list for their purposes. It will be interesting to see how the second round proceeds because this is uncharted territory for everyone. Stay thirsty, October is 6 months before the end of March - it takes 5 months to complete the entire hiring process (think back - it was April certs to August hiring this year) plus we got some major holidays to contend with. We are almost around the corner to the second round . . . Small point of clarification... first cert came out 5/2. If you make the cert, you will receive an email telling you that you made it with the cities for which you are being considered. Everyone on the cert will receive the email. I do not foresee any instance where they won't allow you to remove cities from consideration even if they were previously acceptable back in May or allow every candidate to rank their city preferences on a new group of certs (assuming second certers get the opportunity). If a person was on the first cert, does not receive an email for the second cert, and sees locations on their GAL on that cert with new candidates reporting lower scores than the first certer's, it's a logical conclusion that they've been three struck. I'm not trying to cause panic or unnecessary worry in saying this. Just trying to be somewhat realistic.
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Post by redryder on Oct 1, 2014 13:01:27 GMT -5
Gary: You raised an issue regarding whether or not the ordering agency can request a number of names per vacancy or if this is fixed by OPM. I did some quick checking of the hiring process and how to ask for a certificate. The information I found shows the requesting agency can ask for a specific number of names. So I stand by my original post. If ODAR wants to have a larger pool, they can ask for more names per certificate. Not all of the names will be the same on every cert but there will be a significant amount of duplication.
Asking for a certain number of candidates apparently did not change. I know from experience with another agency that I was one of a pool of 10 for one slot. The agency did not just receive the top 3.
BTW, per the AALJ newsletter issued today, one of the reasons the offers took so long was that ODAR had to offer for a location and get a response before they could go to the next location. Which makes sense. If ALJ candidate refused City A, his name had to be removed from any other certificates and the remaining candidates re-ordered. Same thing, if candidate accepted a slot but his name appeared on other ceritificates for slots not yet offered.
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Post by Gaidin on Oct 1, 2014 13:02:38 GMT -5
I am not sure I understand why you all think the email about preferences will be determinative. I would imagine the emails saying you are on a cert for x cities will tell us whether anybody is 3 struck. If a person on the 1st cert does not get that email then they got 3 struck, if their GAL includes the cities on the cert. The ranking question was with the cert materials if I remember correctly. I just think not getting invited to the wedding is much more indicative than not getting the question about whether you want chicken or beef at the reception.
what Hopefal said.....
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