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Post by mamaru on Dec 4, 2014 22:31:02 GMT -5
I just got back from my interview in DC. I met sratty there. What a hoot! To meet one of our board members in person in Falls Church was great. And she is nicer in person than she comes across on this forum (if that's possible). I also met two other candidates, a man and woman, who are not board regulars. They both were very nice too. As an outsider, I've only met candidates for this position in person twice, in DC for testing, and today. Although my interaction today was more limited, everyone I have met seems really sharp and collegial. It speaks well for all of us. As for the interview, it is done. Anything I can do to influence this process is completed. It has been a long road, but worth the journey. As a famous Spanish philosopher once said, "Que sera sera." (or was that just Doris Day?) Thanks a bunch! Yep happy to be done. For those of you going tomorrow or after the holidays just know they will make it a pleasant experience. Not necessarily. "Pleasant" is the last word I would use to describe my experience.
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Post by hopefalj on Dec 4, 2014 23:03:38 GMT -5
any speculation how many are competing for these 20-30 spots? 1st cert carryovers + 2nd cert interviewed = ?? It's obviously an inexact science, but there were at least 200 folks that made cert #2.
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Post by JudgeRatty on Dec 4, 2014 23:13:49 GMT -5
any speculation how many are competing for these 20-30 spots? 1st cert carryovers + 2nd cert interviewed = ?? It's obviously an inexact science, but there were at least 200 folks that made cert #2. And 2 of the 4 of us interviewing today mentioned they do not participate on the board. So there are still folks out there who only rarely look at the board much less vote. Shocking right?!
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Post by Gaidin on Dec 4, 2014 23:20:04 GMT -5
Sir it's anybodies guess at this point but 128 people answered the score poll for the 2nd cert. I haven't really looked at the data in a few weeks to try and sort out how many people are on the 2nd cert but at least 128. Of course the fact that a number of cities were on the list and ultimately were taken out of consideration late in the game makes any guess even more problematic. aljdiscussion.proboards.com/thread/2785/certs-2014-score-breakdown-round?page=2
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Post by almostheaven on Dec 4, 2014 23:20:15 GMT -5
There were three candidates interviewed in my time slot this week and the others were aware of the board but had not been on the forum for awhile, one not since NOR received.
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Post by Missundaztood on Dec 4, 2014 23:44:43 GMT -5
There were three candidates interviewed in my time slot this week and the others were aware of the board but had not been on the forum for awhile, one not since NOR received. Seriously? What do they do? Talk to their families? (Shudder...)
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Post by gary on Dec 4, 2014 23:53:36 GMT -5
There were three candidates interviewed in my time slot this week and the others were aware of the board but had not been on the forum for awhile, one not since NOR received. Seriously? What do they do? Talk to their families? (Shudder...) I think I've heard of this though I've not personally witnessed it--ALJ candidates so undedicated that they have lives.
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Post by grassgreener on Dec 5, 2014 7:22:51 GMT -5
I think I've heard of this though I've not personally witnessed it--ALJ candidates so undedicated that they have lives. Those folks won't make good ALJs . . .
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Post by anotherfed on Dec 5, 2014 8:42:14 GMT -5
I think I've heard of this though I've not personally witnessed it--ALJ candidates so undedicated that they have lives. Those folks won't make good ALJs . . . Besides, they're just plain weird...
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Post by Ace Midnight on Dec 5, 2014 9:35:28 GMT -5
any speculation how many are competing for these 20-30 spots? 1st cert carryovers + 2nd cert interviewed = ?? I don't think this is the correct question - there will be more than 20 to 30 offers from this round of interviews - probably ~70 (just based on what happened last time) - and certainly 50 or so. We already have a good idea they have several training sessions laid on - if they close this one off at a certain number for January 25, they may just continue rolling until they run out of spots for this round. In fact, it would behoove them to do so, in order to get the next round of transfers out of the way, and see the new map with the new slate of vacancies for round 3 of certs (and there will be at least a round 3 and 4, if they intend to hire 250 in 2015). At this rate, at round 4, they will have had a chance to interview about 75 to 80 percent of the register, just spitballing the math, without going to the Big Chief and stubby pencil.
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Post by nikster on Dec 5, 2014 21:12:26 GMT -5
There were three candidates interviewed in my time slot this week and the others were aware of the board but had not been on the forum for awhile, one not since NOR received. Seriously? What do they do? Talk to their families? (Shudder...) Miss, this comment was the funniest thing I have read today. Thank you.
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Post by nikster on Dec 5, 2014 21:41:01 GMT -5
any speculation how many are competing for these 20-30 spots? 1st cert carryovers + 2nd cert interviewed = ?? I think close to 300 interviewed. I get that from what ALJD said in this thread: aljdiscussion.proboards.com/thread/2800/patient-process. But, I think no more than 90 out of the 300 are competing for the 20-30 spots open for January.
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Post by Gaidin on Dec 5, 2014 22:13:47 GMT -5
there is nothing "incorrect" about the question. I didn't say that the 20-30 are the only hires from this cert. I was simply asking, specifically, for these 20-30, how many were competing, since it will the next group hired. nice try, ace... Ok. Then your question is very poor because it asks for something that is truly unknowable at this point. The only way to know how many people are in competition for those 20-30 spots is to know: which cities will be hired, how many spots in each city, what order they will hire those cities, whether they will hire all positions in that city at once or over the course of working through the offers, and other factors that I am unaware of at this point. That also ignores things like whether you consider it actual consideration if they put a candidate with terrible references in the pile just to 3 strike them or similarly a person who had a "do not recommend" at the interview. Long and short, Ace was trying to give you the best answer available based upon what is known.
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Post by Gaidin on Dec 5, 2014 22:44:11 GMT -5
Sir unless many people's basic assumptions are wrong this second set of certs will be used to fill two classes. Only the 1st class will be hired in January. Think of the hiring for both classes as 1 hire on a continuum. Some people will be hired to begin in January and others for a 2nd class but that probably has more to do with the order in which ODAR chooses to fill offices than anything else. Because of all that there really isn't a group of us competing solely for the January start date*. We are instead competing to be hired off this cert whether in the 1st, 2nd, or even possibly 3rd class.
*Unless they hire all of the vacancies in the only cities you have on your GAL for the January class.
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Post by Missundaztood on Dec 5, 2014 23:38:40 GMT -5
Gaidin, I seem to recall a discussion about the 1st cert of 90 potential hires being chosen from a group of @ 170 people. Seems this cert, be it 1, 2 or 3 classes, has way more people "competing" and worse odds of getting picked. Thoughts? Yes, we had Intel from the first cert of approx 170 folks for 90 slots but 90 weren't ultimately hired. And you aren't competing with all folks, just those with the same cities, if those cities even get hires, which we have Intel that some won't. So, there are lots of unknowns, and even when we do get Intel, it is subject to change.
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Post by moopigsdad on Dec 6, 2014 8:03:00 GMT -5
Gaidin, I seem to recall a discussion about the 1st cert of 90 potential hires being chosen from a group of @ 170 people. Seems this cert, be it 1, 2 or 3 classes, has way more people "competing" and worse odds of getting picked. Thoughts? Sir the odds were slightly better for those in the first cert with a 40 to 45% chance of being hired. I am not so sure the 300 number here is correct as to the total competing. I believe it to be slight less. As to hires it is likely to be around 75 to 85 total to be hired from this cert. The odds are probably closer to 30 to 35% chance of being hired this time or 1 in 3 chance. Those are still good odds, however remember the odds of those with a wide open GAL are higher than those with a very limited GAL. All I can say is keep your fingers crossed and hope for the best. Good luck to all!
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Post by anotherfed on Dec 6, 2014 12:16:50 GMT -5
... and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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Post by gary on Dec 6, 2014 12:21:54 GMT -5
... and may the odds be ever in your favor. Great. Every time someone says that in Hunger Games, the odds are stacked against you.
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Post by luckylady2 on Dec 6, 2014 13:08:30 GMT -5
Gaidin, I seem to recall a discussion about the 1st cert of 90 potential hires being chosen from a group of @ 170 people. Seems this cert, be it 1, 2 or 3 classes, has way more people "competing" and worse odds of getting picked. Thoughts? Sir the odds were slightly better for those in the first cert with a 40 to 45% chance of being hired. I am not so sure the 300 number here is correct as to the total competing. I believe it to be slight less. As to hires it is likely to be around 75 to 85 total to be hired from this cert. The odds are probably closer to 30 to 35% chance of being hired this time or 1 in 3 chance. Those are still good odds, however remember the odds of those with a wide open GAL are higher than those with a very limited GAL. All I can say is keep your fingers crossed and hope for the best. Good luck to all! Sir - in addition to all the ever changing variables that have been discussed, there's 2 more overlays that move this process even closer to the "magic" than the "science" end of things: the veterans preference aspect and the fact that for any one position they actually consider only 3 at a time, but which 3 depends upon all of the stuff mentioned above AND who they want to hire for which city and where that candidate stands in relation to others on the various city lists. it is a 3 dimensional chessboard with constantly moving pieces, hence our name The Puzzle Palace for the folks making the selections. Even the temptation to just take the easy calculation of how many open slots to how many unique names is waaaay off, because we don't have complete verification of even those raw numbers and as the process proceeds these numbers seem to shift. Last time for the rumored 90 slots they filled about 70-75, a shortfall of over 20%. That introduces a lot of error into the nice, neat mathematical analysis some would like. So hey, instead of stressing & wrangling about unknowable numbers, how about taking a trip over to the Drink of the Day thread & helping me out by posting a favorite recipe? (Shameless plug). ?
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Post by Missundaztood on Dec 6, 2014 13:58:01 GMT -5
... and may the odds be ever in your favor. Great. Every time someone says that in Hunger Games, the odds are stacked against you. Maybe that is what 'Fed had planned...
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