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Post by gary on May 19, 2014 20:33:58 GMT -5
I doubt that any of the administrative appeals that are pending would cause them to freeze the register. If a lawsuit were filed that raised an issue going to the validity of the register itself, it is possible a court could issue an order staying all hiring from the register. I think however: 1) This is possible, but unlikely; 2) I don't think a court would make such an order based on a claim that an individual applicant should have been allowed to go on to the DC testing or should have been found to have a passing SI or WD score, since such claims would not implicate the validity of the entire register; and 3) would only happen after the litigant(s) had exhausted their administrative remedies, i.e., went through the entire administrative appeal process without satisfaction, which seems to be well into the future at the rate they appear to be processing appeals. Except after Adzell we all know a freeze is possie. Likely? Maybe not but it did disrupt the process! It's certainly possible, but not now, and not for a good while yet, I think. I have not seen anything on the Board which would suggest any of the appeals are close to being concluded. And even when they are concluded, it is unlikely there will be a legitimate issue that would warrant staying hiring from the register. Anyway, I hope something lights a fire under ODAR on hiring as many of us as possible, since volume hiring of us is where my chance of becoming an ALJ lies.
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Post by anotherfed on May 20, 2014 7:41:56 GMT -5
I doubt that any of the administrative appeals that are pending would cause them to freeze the register. If a lawsuit were filed that raised an issue going to the validity of the register itself, it is possible a court could issue an order staying all hiring from the register. I think however: 1) This is possible, but unlikely; 2) I don't think a court would make such an order based on a claim that an individual applicant should have been allowed to go on to the DC testing or should have been found to have a passing SI or WD score, since such claims would not implicate the validity of the entire register; and 3) would only happen after the litigant(s) had exhausted their administrative remedies, i.e., went through the entire administrative appeal process without satisfaction, which seems to be well into the future at the rate they appear to be processing appeals. Except after Adzell we all know a freeze is possie. Likely? Maybe not but it did disrupt the process! Edit: "possie"?? Meant possible. Only funky has a posse. Lol! I thought "possie" was some new, hip term that I was going to have to ask my nephew about. I was impressed with your grasp of slang!
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Post by funkyodar on May 20, 2014 7:51:59 GMT -5
Deputy Commissioner Sklar told NOSSCR last week that SSA plans to hire 200-250 ALJs in the next 12-18 months. (He and Judge Bice also said that the new position description is just an update, not a change.) This essentially matches up with what DC Sklar told a senior attorney conference call months ago. In that call (made before NORs were even out) he said odar had wanted to hire around 150 this year, but OPM's delay meant hiring more than 90 was impractical. He said they would hire 90 this fiscal, another 90 next fiscal then do "smaller, more targeted hiring." Based on that, and the reports that they have budget authority to hire 240 this fiscal and next, here is my guess on how that shakes out. They make offers to the initial 90 (or slightly less than the full 90) in July. The start dates and training dates for that hire are well discussed on the board. The second 90 cert request could come in October/November, but with holidays i'd bet interviews wouldn't be till January/February (they have done them in those months before). Leading to offers in March, start dates in April/May and Training in May/June. So that gets them to 180 + or -. Leaving 60 slots to fill with the "smaller, more targeted hiring." As to "smaller," I guess that would mean a third cert for 30 or so. Maybe "targeted" means that hire would be for the NHC. That would explain why no NHC were on this cert even though good intel exists that they want to hire for the NHC. Or it could mean something else entirely. In any event, I would think that Cert would need to come about the time the second certers are in training. Say June, interviews in July, starts in August and training in September. The fourth and final fiscal 15 cert would have to come quickly to allow hires in September for the budget. That group of 30 would probably train in October. As to "targeted" in that instance, maybe thats where they try to go after individuals they know they want but couldnt get to in the previous certs. Possibly a gal expansion opportunity like in 2012? So that would get them to the 240 by the end of fiscal 2015. They then go into 2016 with whatever new hiring authority that budget gives them, if any. More than 25% of the reg would have been hired and presumaby another 50% struck by then. So, entirely possible they need a refresh of the reg depending on what level of hiring they can expect in fiscal 2016. As always, just my own funked opinion/guess.
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Post by moopigsdad on May 20, 2014 8:24:19 GMT -5
Deputy Commissioner Sklar told NOSSCR last week that SSA plans to hire 200-250 ALJs in the next 12-18 months. (He and Judge Bice also said that the new position description is just an update, not a change.) This essentially matches up with what DC Sklar told a senior attorney conference call months ago. In that call (made before NORs were even out) he said odar had wanted to hire around 150 this year, but OPM's delay meant hiring more than 90 was impractical. He said they would hire 90 this fiscal, another 90 next fiscal then do "smaller, more targeted hiring." Based on that, and the reports that they have budget authority to hire 240 this fiscal and next, here is my guess on how that shakes out. They make offers to the initial 90 (or slightly less than the full 90) in July. The start dates and training dates for that hire are well discussed on the board. The second 90 cert request could come in October/November, but with holidays i'd bet interviews wouldn't be till January/February (they have done them in those months before). Leading to offers in March, start dates in April/May and Training in May/June. So that gets them to 180 + or -. Leaving 60 slots to fill with the "smaller, more targeted hiring." As to "smaller," I guess that would mean a third cert for 30 or so. Maybe "targeted" means that hire would be for the NHC. That would explain why no NHC were on this cert even though good intel exists that they want to hire for the NHC. Or it could mean something else entirely. In any event, I would think that Cert would need to come about the time the second certers are in training. Say June, interviews in July, starts in August and training in September. The fourth and final fiscal 15 cert would have to come quickly to allow hires in September for the budget. That group of 30 would probably train in October. As to "targeted" in that instance, maybe thats where they try to go after individuals they know they want but couldnt get to in the previous certs. Possibly a gal expansion opportunity like in 2012? So that would get them to the 240 by the end of fiscal 2015. They then go into 2016 with whatever new hiring authority that budget gives them, if any. More than 25% of the reg would have been hired and presumaby another 50% struck by then. So, entirely possible they need a refresh of the reg depending on what level of hiring they can expect in fiscal 2016. As always, just my own funked opinion/guess. I like the way you "funking" think funkyodar. However, I do think more than 25% of the Register will be hired by the end of 2015, but I don't think 50% of the Register will be struck as you state. More than likely, all the wide GALs will have been used up or passed over by the end of 2015, requiring OPM to allow those left to expand their GALs to allow for more SSA hiring, in addition to a Refresh of the Register. Those then still on the Refreshed Register would be picked up in future targeted hiring of 25 to 50 ALJs at a time depending upon the budget and hiring needs in 2016 and beyond.
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Post by 71stretch on May 20, 2014 8:32:08 GMT -5
This essentially matches up with what DC Sklar told a senior attorney conference call months ago. In that call (made before NORs were even out) he said odar had wanted to hire around 150 this year, but OPM's delay meant hiring more than 90 was impractical. He said they would hire 90 this fiscal, another 90 next fiscal then do "smaller, more targeted hiring." Based on that, and the reports that they have budget authority to hire 240 this fiscal and next, here is my guess on how that shakes out. They make offers to the initial 90 (or slightly less than the full 90) in July. The start dates and training dates for that hire are well discussed on the board. The second 90 cert request could come in October/November, but with holidays i'd bet interviews wouldn't be till January/February (they have done them in those months before). Leading to offers in March, start dates in April/May and Training in May/June. So that gets them to 180 + or -. Leaving 60 slots to fill with the "smaller, more targeted hiring." As to "smaller," I guess that would mean a third cert for 30 or so. Maybe "targeted" means that hire would be for the NHC. That would explain why no NHC were on this cert even though good intel exists that they want to hire for the NHC. Or it could mean something else entirely. In any event, I would think that Cert would need to come about the time the second certers are in training. Say June, interviews in July, starts in August and training in September. The fourth and final fiscal 15 cert would have to come quickly to allow hires in September for the budget. That group of 30 would probably train in October. As to "targeted" in that instance, maybe thats where they try to go after individuals they know they want but couldnt get to in the previous certs. Possibly a gal expansion opportunity like in 2012? So that would get them to the 240 by the end of fiscal 2015. They then go into 2016 with whatever new hiring authority that budget gives them, if any. More than 25% of the reg would have been hired and presumaby another 50% struck by then. So, entirely possible they need a refresh of the reg depending on what level of hiring they can expect in fiscal 2016. As always, just my own funked opinion/guess. I like the way you "funking" think funkyodar. However, I do think more than 25% of the Register will be hired by the end of 2015, but I don't think 50% of the Register will be struck as you state. More than likely, all the wide GALs will have been used up or passed over by the end of 2015, requiring OPM to allow those left to expand their GALs to allow for more SSA hiring, in addition to a Refresh of the Register. Those then still on the Refreshed Register would be picked up in future targeted hiring of 25 to 50 ALJs at a time depending upon the budget and hiring needs in 2016 and beyond. A refresh would take a LONG time to accomplish. Just as long as a new register does, really. I think they would allow changes in GALs and see what that gets them before they even think about a refresh. They've set that precedent now, and it costs comparatively little to do compared to a refresh. They might also want to wait to see how the appeals shake out (and see if that requires changes in the application process) before rolling out a refresh.
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Post by moopigsdad on May 20, 2014 8:49:32 GMT -5
You may be right observer 53, however I think the refresh application period will not be two weeks like the original register application period, but more along the lines of three days at most. Once they hit a figure of applicants they feel comfortable with in moving forward (like in the past refreshes) they will close the application period and start the testing. With much less people on the refresh than on the original register application, it is likely to take them less time to work through the process than the original register. However, I do agree that OPM allowing the GAL changes will occur first, while they are working on the testing of the new applicants.
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Post by gary on May 20, 2014 9:22:44 GMT -5
If they hired 240, the maximum that could be three struck would be 160. Unless even 750 is way too large an estimated register size, that would leave available 350+ for later ODAR certs.
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Post by 71stretch on May 20, 2014 9:24:15 GMT -5
You may be right observer 53, however I think the refresh application period will not be two weeks like the original register application period, but more along the lines of three days at most. Once they hit a figure of applicants they feel comfortable with in moving forward (like in the past refreshes) they will close the application period and start the testing. With much less people on the refresh than on the original register application, it is likely to take them less time to work through the process than the original register. However, I do agree allowing the GAL changes will occur first, while they are working on the testing of the new applicants. I don't think they are going to run both processes at the same time. Opening GALs would likely help them delay a refresh, which I don't see happening before 2016, and give them a better idea of how many applications to take in a refresh. Even 1100 plus applications, like the last refresh, will take months to run through this process. All the more reason to let the appeals settle out,too.
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Post by gary on May 20, 2014 9:27:04 GMT -5
You may be right observer 53, however I think the refresh application period will not be two weeks like the original register application period, but more along the lines of three days at most. Once they hit a figure of applicants they feel comfortable with in moving forward (like in the past refreshes) they will close the application period and start the testing. With much less people on the refresh than on the original register application, it is likely to take them less time to work through the process than the original register. However, I do agree allowing the GAL changes will occur first, while they are working on the testing of the new applicants. I think if OPM is happy with the results on this register, they will open it up for two weeks and try to get more of the best of the best to add to the register. On the other hand, I'm generally wrong in guessing what OPM will do and when they will do it, so you may be right.
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Post by moopigsdad on May 20, 2014 9:30:53 GMT -5
Gary don't sell your opinions short, they are as viable as mine. I just don't think OPM will want the refresh to be as large as the original register because there will still be people left on the original register who has smaller GALs or were passed over for one reason or another, who can remain there without refreshing their scores. Hence, it is not likely they will be looking for another 6,000 to 8,000 people to apply again, but a lesser amount to add to those already on the register.
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Post by moopigsdad on May 20, 2014 9:33:09 GMT -5
If they hired 240, the maximum that could be three struck would be 160. Unless even 750 is way too large an estimated register size, that would leave available 350+ for later ODAR certs. Yes, your math is pretty much correct Gary, but those 300 plus left over would have limited GALs and not help out SSA in "crapland" cities. Hence, the need to allow people to expand GALs and possibly a refresh.
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Post by gary on May 20, 2014 9:37:42 GMT -5
Gary don't sell your opinions short, they are as viable as mine. I just don't think OPM will want the refresh to be as large as the original register because there will still be people left on the original register who has smaller GALs or were passed over for one reason or another, who can remain there without refreshing their scores. Hence, it is not likely they will be looking for another 6,000 to 8,000 people to apply again, but a lesser amount to add to those already on the register. My thinking was that if they wanted fewer they would control the size of the refresh by inviting fewer to test in DC. I'm not sure though if they would be able to do this since that might mean a higher cutoff score for the refresh than for the new register.
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Post by sealaw90 on May 20, 2014 9:38:45 GMT -5
You may be right observer 53, however I think the refresh application period will not be two weeks like the original register application period, but more along the lines of three days at most. Once they hit a figure of applicants they feel comfortable with in moving forward (like in the past refreshes) they will close the application period and start the testing. With much less people on the refresh than on the original register application, it is likely to take them less time to work through the process than the original register. However, I do agree allowing the GAL changes will occur first, while they are working on the testing of the new applicants. I don't think they are going to run both processes at the same time. Opening GALs would likely help them delay a refresh, which I don't see happening before 2016, and give them a better idea of how many applications to take in a refresh. Even 1100 plus applications, like the last refresh, will take months to run through this process. All the more reason to let the appeals settle out,too. I tend to agree that it will not be a simlutaneous process, but rather consecutive. GAL expansion is cheap and quick, refresh is more costly and time-consuming. To me, this sounds like a possible request to expand a candidate's GAL could go out around the begining of FY16 (Oct - Dec) of 2015, correct? All of this is assuming, of course, that OPM would even contemplate a GAL expansion - I am not expecting it, just sort of hoping they might do this.
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Post by gary on May 20, 2014 9:55:52 GMT -5
If they hired 240, the maximum that could be three struck would be 160. Unless even 750 is way too large an estimated register size, that would leave available 350+ for later ODAR certs. Yes, your math is pretty much correct Gary, but those 300 plus left over would have limited GALs and not help out SSA in "crapland" cities. Hence, the need to allow people to expand GALs and possibly a refresh. You're right. I have not adequately accounted for the small GALs many of us (myself included) have. After the possible 240 hire, I'm not sure how many left on the register will not be viable candidates because they have narrow GALs that include only places ODAR isn't looking to hire for.
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Post by funkyodar on May 20, 2014 10:06:26 GMT -5
If they hired 240, the maximum that could be three struck would be 160. Unless even 750 is way too large an estimated register size, that would leave available 350+ for later ODAR certs. As usual, you are right G, way too early for my brain to do math. But think about this. The estimated register size is 900. Minus 240 hires in Fiscals 14 and 15. Minus up to 160 official 3 strikes in the same period. So, the remaining register is 500 + or - going into 2016. Add to that any sucessful appeals and vets that can test out of order. No idea on the number of vets, but I just can't imagine some huge # of successful appeals. So let's say another 100 or so. So the available register for 2016 and beyond is around 600. But look at those 500 not officially 3 struck, original folks. The vast majority will have been on previous certs and not been hired. Some won't have been on previous certs or were but not hired strictly due to gal issues. Allowing a gal expansion would help make some of these accessible by odar. But the last time they did that much fewer than expected reportedly expanded. After all, people picked their gals for a reason. Some will undoubtedly expand if afforded the opportunity either because they didn't know the importance of gal or because they have had life changes that then let them consider more locales. Many though will still have the same issues and some will even have developed new restrictions in the preceding 2 years that won't allow any major gal expansion. Another group will essentially have been deemed undesirable. Not officially 3 struck, maybe because they were never in consid for 3 slots, they would continue to be on certs in 2016. But, due to maybe a bad ref or tanked interview, odar has decided they won't be hired. The last group among that 500 will be the lowest scorers on the reg. "Scores don't matter," and all aside, I know past registers had hirings at the extreme low end of the scores, these folks will still have problems making a cert for a place they have on there gal and odar may actually be forced to put more credence in scores under this new process. So, by the time they finish the hiring of the 240 and 3 striking of up to the 160 taking up to 45% of the reg out of 2016 contention, most of what would remain would either be inaccessible to odar or undesireble to odar. No doubt they would try a gal expansion to get to some, but I would imagine we would see odar pressuring opm for a refresh on the grounds that what's left is picked over, just like they did in 2012. Especially if there is any signficant hiring in 16. I don't know if opm would consent to a refresh, they fought odar on that before, but I bet they get pressured to do so after a last small hire resulting from the gal expansion opportunity. And I don't think the refresh testing would take anywhere near the time it took from app close to nor that we endured. They will then have the benefit of having run this new process before and have worked out the bugs to be more efficient. All of this of course depends on the 2016 hiring budget. I wouldn't be surprised to see very little hiring authority after 240 hires in 14 and 15 though. Again, just my guess.
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Post by hopefalj on May 20, 2014 10:10:25 GMT -5
I don't think they are going to run both processes at the same time. Opening GALs would likely help them delay a refresh, which I don't see happening before 2016, and give them a better idea of how many applications to take in a refresh. Even 1100 plus applications, like the last refresh, will take months to run through this process. All the more reason to let the appeals settle out,too. I tend to agree that it will not be a simlutaneous process, but rather consecutive. GAL expansion is cheap and quick, refresh is more costly and time-consuming. To me, this sounds like a possible request to expand a candidate's GAL could go out around the begining of FY16 (Oct - Dec) of 2015, correct? All of this is assuming, of course, that OPM would even contemplate a GAL expansion - I am not expecting it, just sort of hoping they might do this. If they refresh the register, they'd be doing both simultaneously since you can expand your GAL or wen retake the test once the announcement opens again. I don't think there's anything that keeps an agency from hiring from the existing register while all of the testing of new candidates goes on. I think they'll likely go through the register as far as they can to evaluate as many folks on the current register as they can before they reopen the process. I imagine GAL expansion will occur before a refresh, but I also think they'll go as low as they can go with the current register before doing that.
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Post by westernalj on May 20, 2014 10:12:26 GMT -5
I don't disagree with much of this, but assuming anywhere near a three strike of 160 seems very high to me. Do we have any historical information to back up such a high three strike rate?
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Post by moopigsdad on May 20, 2014 10:13:04 GMT -5
Bro, as usual, you are spot on funky. The only hires would be to replace retirements over the years, so hiring would be limited and not in larger numbers. You will likely see hires in the 30s or 40s maximum for an entire year and that could even be split up into two unique certs rather than one.
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Post by gary on May 20, 2014 10:18:38 GMT -5
If they hired 240, the maximum that could be three struck would be 160. Unless even 750 is way too large an estimated register size, that would leave available 350+ for later ODAR certs. As usual, you are right G, way too early for my brain to do math. But think about this. The estimated register size is 900. Minus 240 hires in Fiscals 14 and 15. Minus up to 160 official 3 strikes in the same period. So, the remaining register is 500 + or - going into 2016. Add to that any sucessful appeals and vets that can test out of order. No idea on the number of vets, but I just can't imagine some huge # of successful appeals. So let's say another 100 or so. So the available register for 2016 and beyond is around 600. But look at those 500 not officially 3 struck, original folks. The vast majority will have been on previous certs and not been hired. Some won't have been on previous certs or were but not hired strictly due to gal issues. Allowing a gal expansion would help make some of these accessible by odar. But the last time they did that much fewer than expected reportedly expanded. After all, people picked their gals for a reason. Some will undoubtedly expand if afforded the opportunity either because they didn't know the importance of gal or because they have had life changes that then let them consider more locales. Many though will still have the same issues and some will even have developed new restrictions in the preceding 2 years that won't allow any major gal expansion. Another group will essentially have been deemed undesirable. Not officially 3 struck, maybe because they were never in consid for 3 slots, they would continue to be on certs in 2016. But, due to maybe a bad ref or tanked interview, odar has decided they won't be hired. The last group among that 500 will be the lowest scorers on the reg. "Scores don't matter," and all aside, I know past registers had hirings at the extreme low end of the scores, these folks will still have problems making a cert for a place they have on there gal and odar may actually be forced to put more credence in scores under this new process. So, by the time they finish the hiring of the 240 and 3 striking of up to the 160 taking up to 45% of the reg out of 2016 contention, most of what would remain would either be inaccessible to odar or undesireble to odar. No doubt they would try a gal expansion to get to some, but I would imagine we would see odar pressuring opm for a refresh on the grounds that what's left is picked over, just like they did in 2012. Especially if there is any signficant hiring in 16. I don't know if opm would consent to a refresh, they fought odar on that before, but I bet they get pressured to do so after a last small hire resulting from the gal expansion opportunity. And I don't think the refresh testing would take anywhere near the time it took from app close to nor that we endured. They will then have the benefit of having run this new process before and have worked out the bugs to be more efficient. All of this of course depends on the 2016 hiring budget. I wouldn't be surprised to see very little hiring authority after 240 hires in 14 and 15 though. Again, just my guess. This all sounds pretty much on the mark. I do think OPM will be resistant to a refresh as long as it can provide enough eligibles on certs for ODAR for 3 candidates to be considered for each position in every location ODAR requests (how this amounted to 168 for the first cert has previously been beaten to death on this Board). I also think ODAR will take the position that after the testing and culling of candidates we went through, anyone on the register is qualified for the job, regardless of whether ODAR has looked at them and doesn't like them, unless and until ODAR three strikes them.
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Post by gary on May 20, 2014 10:21:24 GMT -5
I don't disagree with much of this, but assuming anywhere near a three strike of 160 seems very high to me. Do we have any historical information to back up such a high three strike rate? 160 is the maximum number of 3-strikes possible for 240 hires. I agree the actual number will be lower, very possibly considerably lower.
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