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Post by funkyodar on May 20, 2014 10:21:33 GMT -5
I don't disagree with much of this, but assuming anywhere near a three strike of 160 seems very high to me. Do we have any historical information to back up such a high three strike rate? I don't think they will actually 3 strike that many, but the point is they could up to that number with a corresponding hire of 240. Plus, I tend to agree with the theory that opm's change in the cert process was done to force odar into being more open and uniform in its hiring and striking. 3 striking is at the agency discretion. In the past some were struck after 3 consids while odar didn't exercise that option on others and considered them for many more than 3 slots. By these changes, a lot of odar's prior maneuverability was removed. Meaning official 3 striking is one of the few remaining ways they can get around one person to get to a more desired candidate. Thus, I expect odar will have to 3 strike more than they would in the past. But this would be far from the first time i've been entirely wrong.
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Post by moopigsdad on May 20, 2014 10:26:32 GMT -5
I don't disagree with much of this, but assuming anywhere near a three strike of 160 seems very high to me. Do we have any historical information to back up such a high three strike rate? I don't think they will actually 3 strike that many, but the point is they could up to that number with a corresponding hire of 240. Plus, I tend to agree with the theory that opm's change in the cert process was done to force odar into being more open and uniform in its hiring and striking. 3 striking is at the agency discretion. In the past some were struck after 3 consids while odar didn't exercise that option on others and considered them for many more than 3 slots. By these changes, a lot of odar's prior maneuverability was removed. Meaning official 3 striking is one of the few remaining ways they can get around one person to get to a more desired candidate. Thus, I expect odar will have to 3 strike more than they would in the past. But this would be far from the first time i've been entirely wrong. Three-striking would likely be the only way for SSA to control it's own hiring process due to OPM's register cert changes. Hence, once again funky, I think you are spot on with this opinion.
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Post by gary on May 20, 2014 10:31:54 GMT -5
The other thing ODAR can do is pick the locations and number of slots for the subsequent certs so as to get to favorites and cut out those it doesn't want. I believe this is why ODAR wanted more than 100 more candidates than it could possibly reach in this round of hiring.
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Post by moopigsdad on May 20, 2014 10:35:05 GMT -5
The other thing ODAR can do is pick the locations and number of slots for the subsequent certs so as to get to favorites and cut out those it doesn't want. I believe this is why ODAR wanted more than 100 more candidates than it could possibly reach in this round of hiring. What "100" more are you referring to Gary? There are only 78 or so extra people right now on this cert, if they hired all 90 planned ALJs.
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Post by sealaw90 on May 20, 2014 10:39:45 GMT -5
mpd, thanks for the Memorial Day hot dog - I did bug you about changing moopig's pic awhile back.
BTW, how'd you know I like mustard on my dogs??
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Post by hopefalj on May 20, 2014 10:40:06 GMT -5
The other thing ODAR can do is pick the locations and number of slots for the subsequent certs so as to get to favorites and cut out those it doesn't want. I believe this is why ODAR wanted more than 100 more candidates than it could possibly reach in this round of hiring. What "100" more are you referring to Gary? There are only 78 or so extra people right now on this cert, if they hired all 90 planned ALJs. What they wanted and what they got are two different things. This cert will be interesting to watch for the reasons discussed. Will they bludgeon their way through it and three-strike like crazy to get as many new names in subsequent certs as possible at the risk of not filling 90 spots this FY? Will they hire the full 90 out if concern about the unknown from the remainder of the current register?
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Post by funkyodar on May 20, 2014 10:42:30 GMT -5
Plus, and I don't say this with any ill will toward our vets or to initiate any vet v nonvet tirades, but a review of the old threads on this board clearly estblishes at least a speculative theory that vets are often considered against other vets to allow 3 striking and removal of vets from consideration.
With vet pref rules, 3 striking against a fellow vet is one of the very limited ways odar can get around hiring an undesirable preference eligible. (Purely from a game theory perspective, that puts vets with only 1 or 2 cities on the cert in an odd, "gal wider the better" general rule juxtaposition. They may actually be better served by being in contention for fewer slots.)
As we know, vets are generally at the top of the reg and, therefore, highly represented on this first cert. So, if its true odar basically has to 3 strike vets it finds undesireable, and assuming they find any significant number undesireable on this cert, we could see a higher percentage of 3 striking this cert than in the most recent hiring or in subsequent certs. Purely due to the fact that there are more vets, as a percentage, on this cert.
Again, maybe.
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Post by gary on May 20, 2014 10:42:51 GMT -5
The other thing ODAR can do is pick the locations and number of slots for the subsequent certs so as to get to favorites and cut out those it doesn't want. I believe this is why ODAR wanted more than 100 more candidates than it could possibly reach in this round of hiring. What "100" more are you referring to Gary? There are only 78 or so extra people right now on this cert, if they hired all 90 planned ALJs. There were reports that they wanted a much larger number than they were given. There was one report that after losing some candidates ODAR requested the certs be enlarged to a total of 270 candidates. I am taking these reports as true. I am also assuming that OPM gave them 168 candidates who were all potentially within reach given some theoretical combination of hiring and three-striking, meaning ODAR wanted 102 candidates beyond those it could possibly reach on this set of certs. My a**umptions may, of course, be horse excrement.
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Post by ok1956 on May 20, 2014 10:55:28 GMT -5
Moopigsdad: I love the new costume! Although I would have thought that better suited for a Dachshund LOL
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Post by moopigsdad on May 20, 2014 10:55:38 GMT -5
mpd, thanks for the Memorial Day hot dog - I did bug you about changing moopig's pic awhile back. BTW, how'd you know I like mustard on my dogs?? Thanks for noticing sealaw. What other way is there to eat a "real" hot dog except with mustard?
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Post by gary on May 20, 2014 10:58:22 GMT -5
mpd, thanks for the Memorial Day hot dog - I did bug you about changing moopig's pic awhile back. BTW, how'd you know I like mustard on my dogs?? Thanks for noticing sealaw. What other way is there to eat a "real" hot dog except with mustard? If Chicago is on your GAL, mustard on a hot dog is OK. Just stay away from the catsup.
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Post by moopigsdad on May 20, 2014 11:00:38 GMT -5
What "100" more are you referring to Gary? There are only 78 or so extra people right now on this cert, if they hired all 90 planned ALJs. What they wanted and what they got are two different things. This cert will be interesting to watch for the reasons discussed. Will they bludgeon their way through it and three-strike like crazy to get as many new names in subsequent certs as possible at the risk of not filling 90 spots this FY? Will they hire the full 90 out if concern about the unknown from the remainder of the current register? The burning question is will SSA use a machete or a surgeon's scalpel on the first cert. I will wait with bated breath to see.
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Post by moopigsdad on May 20, 2014 11:02:47 GMT -5
Plus, and I don't say this with any ill will toward our vets or to initiate any vet v nonvet tirades, but a review of the old threads on this board clearly estblishes at least a speculative theory that vets are often considered against other vets to allow 3 striking and removal of vets from consideration. With vet pref rules, 3 striking against a fellow vet is one of the very limited ways odar can get around hiring an undesirable preference eligible. (Purely from a game theory perspective, that puts vets with only 1 or 2 cities on the cert in an odd, "gal wider the better" general rule juxtaposition. They may actually be better served by being in contention for fewer slots.) As we know, vets are generally at the top of the reg and, therefore, highly represented on this first cert. So, if its true odar basically has to 3 strike vets it finds undesireable, and assuming they find any significant number undesireable on this cert, we could see a higher percentage of 3 striking this cert than in the most recent hiring or in subsequent certs. Purely due to the fact that there are more vets, as a percentage, on this cert. Again, maybe. Please, for God's sake, do not bring up vet vs. non-vet funky for fear of a tigerlaw appearance again. I thought we are watching our topics and posts very carefully to avoid another meltdown and expulsion. I don't want another self-imposed expulsion or an ALJD given one.
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Post by Gaidin on May 20, 2014 11:03:56 GMT -5
If they hired 240, the maximum that could be three struck would be 160. Unless even 750 is way too large an estimated register size, that would leave available 350+ for later ODAR certs. As usual, you are right G, way too early for my brain to do math. But think about this. The estimated register size is 900. Minus 240 hires in Fiscals 14 and 15. Minus up to 160 official 3 strikes in the same period. So, the remaining register is 500 + or - going into 2016. Add to that any sucessful appeals and vets that can test out of order. No idea on the number of vets, but I just can't imagine some huge # of successful appeals. So let's say another 100 or so. So the available register for 2016 and beyond is around 600. But look at those 500 not officially 3 struck, original folks. The vast majority will have been on previous certs and not been hired. Some won't have been on previous certs or were but not hired strictly due to gal issues. Allowing a gal expansion would help make some of these accessible by odar. But the last time they did that much fewer than expected reportedly expanded. After all, people picked their gals for a reason. Some will undoubtedly expand if afforded the opportunity either because they didn't know the importance of gal or because they have had life changes that then let them consider more locales. Many though will still have the same issues and some will even have developed new restrictions in the preceding 2 years that won't allow any major gal expansion. Another group will essentially have been deemed undesirable. Not officially 3 struck, maybe because they were never in consid for 3 slots, they would continue to be on certs in 2016. But, due to maybe a bad ref or tanked interview, odar has decided they won't be hired. The last group among that 500 will be the lowest scorers on the reg. "Scores don't matter," and all aside, I know past registers had hirings at the extreme low end of the scores, these folks will still have problems making a cert for a place they have on there gal and odar may actually be forced to put more credence in scores under this new process. So, by the time they finish the hiring of the 240 and 3 striking of up to the 160 taking up to 45% of the reg out of 2016 contention, most of what would remain would either be inaccessible to odar or undesireble to odar. No doubt they would try a gal expansion to get to some, but I would imagine we would see odar pressuring opm for a refresh on the grounds that what's left is picked over, just like they did in 2012. Especially if there is any signficant hiring in 16. I don't know if opm would consent to a refresh, they fought odar on that before, but I bet they get pressured to do so after a last small hire resulting from the gal expansion opportunity. And I don't think the refresh testing would take anywhere near the time it took from app close to nor that we endured. They will then have the benefit of having run this new process before and have worked out the bugs to be more efficient. All of this of course depends on the 2016 hiring budget. I wouldn't be surprised to see very little hiring authority after 240 hires in 14 and 15 though. Again, just my guess. I think this is right on the money as usual Funk. I would add that I think the GAL issue may cause OPM even more headaches than you guys think at least in relationship to ODAR. If ODAR requests a cert for cities that OPM can't fill adequately then OPM will have to adjust the process. Lets take Outer Western Crapland as our example. In the 3rd or 4th cert off this register ODAR indicates that they want to place 4 ALJs in OWC due to retirements and transfers. This is in addition to 1 hire in 26 other cities. OWC is the least popular place left for all candidates on the register. Can OPM provide enough depth (remember some of the cities on this cert have 50+ people lined up) to fill OWC? If not what is the remedy? I posit that OPM will have to do a GAL expansion after the next Cert and hope enough people have either educated themselves on the process or whose circumstances have changed to expand their GAL or OPM will be refreshing very soon. Also remember that a number of reports from DC testing (and others here) were that people were only interested in working for certain agencies. So there will be people who are eligible for a cert but when the email comes from ODAR or even OMHA they say thanks but no thanks. MPD the hot dog costume is awesome. I am not sure our dog would let me get him in it.
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Post by gary on May 20, 2014 11:04:32 GMT -5
What "100" more are you referring to Gary? There are only 78 or so extra people right now on this cert, if they hired all 90 planned ALJs. What they wanted and what they got are two different things. This cert will be interesting to watch for the reasons discussed. Will they bludgeon their way through it and three-strike like crazy to get as many new names in subsequent certs as possible at the risk of not filling 90 spots this FY? Will they hire the full 90 out if concern about the unknown from the remainder of the current register? I think the fewer they hire the fewer they can 3-strike.
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Post by gary on May 20, 2014 11:08:04 GMT -5
As usual, you are right G, way too early for my brain to do math. But think about this. The estimated register size is 900. Minus 240 hires in Fiscals 14 and 15. Minus up to 160 official 3 strikes in the same period. So, the remaining register is 500 + or - going into 2016. Add to that any sucessful appeals and vets that can test out of order. No idea on the number of vets, but I just can't imagine some huge # of successful appeals. So let's say another 100 or so. So the available register for 2016 and beyond is around 600. But look at those 500 not officially 3 struck, original folks. The vast majority will have been on previous certs and not been hired. Some won't have been on previous certs or were but not hired strictly due to gal issues. Allowing a gal expansion would help make some of these accessible by odar. But the last time they did that much fewer than expected reportedly expanded. After all, people picked their gals for a reason. Some will undoubtedly expand if afforded the opportunity either because they didn't know the importance of gal or because they have had life changes that then let them consider more locales. Many though will still have the same issues and some will even have developed new restrictions in the preceding 2 years that won't allow any major gal expansion. Another group will essentially have been deemed undesirable. Not officially 3 struck, maybe because they were never in consid for 3 slots, they would continue to be on certs in 2016. But, due to maybe a bad ref or tanked interview, odar has decided they won't be hired. The last group among that 500 will be the lowest scorers on the reg. "Scores don't matter," and all aside, I know past registers had hirings at the extreme low end of the scores, these folks will still have problems making a cert for a place they have on there gal and odar may actually be forced to put more credence in scores under this new process. So, by the time they finish the hiring of the 240 and 3 striking of up to the 160 taking up to 45% of the reg out of 2016 contention, most of what would remain would either be inaccessible to odar or undesireble to odar. No doubt they would try a gal expansion to get to some, but I would imagine we would see odar pressuring opm for a refresh on the grounds that what's left is picked over, just like they did in 2012. Especially if there is any signficant hiring in 16. I don't know if opm would consent to a refresh, they fought odar on that before, but I bet they get pressured to do so after a last small hire resulting from the gal expansion opportunity. And I don't think the refresh testing would take anywhere near the time it took from app close to nor that we endured. They will then have the benefit of having run this new process before and have worked out the bugs to be more efficient. All of this of course depends on the 2016 hiring budget. I wouldn't be surprised to see very little hiring authority after 240 hires in 14 and 15 though. Again, just my guess. I think this is right on the money as usual Funk. I would add that I think the GAL issue may cause even OPM headaches than you guys think at least in relationship to ODAR. If ODAR requests a cert for cities that OPM can't fill adequately then OPM will have to adjust the process. Lets take Outer Western Crapland as our example. In the 3rd or 4th cert off this register ODAR indicates that they want to place 4 ALJs in OWC due to retirements and transfers. This is in addition to 1 hire in 26 other cities. OWC is the least popular place left for all candidates on the register. Can OPM provide enough depth (remember some of the cities on this cert have 50+ people lined up) to fill OWC? If not what is the remedy? I posit that OPM will have to do a GAL expansion after the next Cert and hope enough people have educated themselves enough on the process or whose circumstances have changed to expand their GAL or OPM will be refreshing very soon. Also remember that a number of reports from DC testing (and others here) were that people were only interested in working for certain agencies. So there will be people who are eligible for a cert but when the email comes from ODAR or even OMHA they say thanks but no thanks. MPD the hot dog costume is awesome. I am not sure our dog would let me get him in it. Excellent point. I think once they reach the point where OPM cannot provide enough candidates for a location like OWC, ODAR will then have the leverage to seek a refresh of the register if that's what it wants.
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Post by moopigsdad on May 20, 2014 11:11:26 GMT -5
I think this is right on the money as usual Funk. I would add that I think the GAL issue may cause even OPM headaches than you guys think at least in relationship to ODAR. If ODAR requests a cert for cities that OPM can't fill adequately then OPM will have to adjust the process. Lets take Outer Western Crapland as our example. In the 3rd or 4th cert off this register ODAR indicates that they want to place 4 ALJs in OWC due to retirements and transfers. This is in addition to 1 hire in 26 other cities. OWC is the least popular place left for all candidates on the register. Can OPM provide enough depth (remember some of the cities on this cert have 50+ people lined up) to fill OWC? If not what is the remedy? I posit that OPM will have to do a GAL expansion after the next Cert and hope enough people have educated themselves enough on the process or whose circumstances have changed to expand their GAL or OPM will be refreshing very soon. Also remember that a number of reports from DC testing (and others here) were that people were only interested in working for certain agencies. So there will be people who are eligible for a cert but when the email comes from ODAR or even OMHA they say thanks but no thanks. MPD the hot dog costume is awesome. I am not sure our dog would let me get him in it. Excellent point. I think once they reach the point where OPM cannot provide enough candidates for a location like OWC, ODAR will then have the leverage to seek a refresh of the register if that's what it wants. Remember there possibly could be NOR scores in the fifties and forties who either didn't respond to our poll or perhaps are not part of the Board. These are people who could fill OWC positions if it is in their GAL, but once the applicants run out at OPM, then they will have to expand GALs and do a refresh.
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Post by gary on May 20, 2014 11:12:50 GMT -5
Excellent point. I think once they reach the point where OPM cannot provide enough candidates for a location like OWC, ODAR will then have the leverage to seek a refresh of the register if that's what it wants. Remember there possibly could be NOR scores in the fifties and forties who either didn't respond to our poll or perhaps are not part of the Board. These are people who could fill OWC positions if it is in their GAL, but once the applicants run out at OPM, then they will have to expand GALs and do a refresh. I agree with this 100%.
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Post by Gaidin on May 20, 2014 11:19:40 GMT -5
Excellent point. I think once they reach the point where OPM cannot provide enough candidates for a location like OWC, ODAR will then have the leverage to seek a refresh of the register if that's what it wants. Remember there possibly could be NOR scores in the fifties and forties who either didn't respond to our poll or perhaps are not part of the Board. These are people who could fill OWC positions if it is in their GAL, but once the applicants run out at OPM, then they will have to expand GALs and do a refresh. I agree there are low scores out there. I just wonder if there are enough with broad enough GALs. The single biggest change to this process in terms of the register demographic is the much larger pool of outsiders who had very little of this board's information in hand when they applied. Proportionally, the number of wide open GALs appears much smaller than prior registers and I can't see how that isn't true at the lower end of the scale just like it is at the top. IF you accept the premise that people on this Board scored higher and more people on here had the inside knowledge about wide GALs then you most likely the scorers towards the bottom have narrower not broader GALs. Nothing against OWC but the reason it is unpopular is probably just as true for low scorers as high scorers.
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Post by hopefalj on May 20, 2014 11:21:33 GMT -5
What they wanted and what they got are two different things. This cert will be interesting to watch for the reasons discussed. Will they bludgeon their way through it and three-strike like crazy to get as many new names in subsequent certs as possible at the risk of not filling 90 spots this FY? Will they hire the full 90 out if concern about the unknown from the remainder of the current register? I think the fewer they hire the fewer they can 3-strike. Fo' sho'. But it's theoretically possible (can't say for certain without seeing all of the certs) they hire and three-strike in a way that renders it impossible to have enough candidates for all potential openings.
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