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Post by funkyodar on Jun 12, 2014 20:31:13 GMT -5
i agree that makes sense Hound. But, i just cant see them needing or wanting to 3 strike more than 25% of this first cert given the lack of flexibility. 3 striking is how they did their manuevering in the past, but with single city certs it wont work the way it once did.
plus, there is obviously a need for speed at play. Unless someone is a clear ill fit, a no rec, why waste the time of doing a ton more interviews when you are in a time crunch?
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Post by Highlander on Jun 12, 2014 20:36:01 GMT -5
Funky, I like the way you WAG
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Post by orchid on Jun 13, 2014 6:04:46 GMT -5
Fwiw, the agency is going to have to interview more people. Let's not forget that second certers and beyond!
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Post by moopigsdad on Jun 13, 2014 7:14:35 GMT -5
I agree with funky that some of those not hired this cert will make the next set of certs and might likely be hired. I don't agree with funky's assumption of automatic hiring.of those people. I do think there will indeed be more SSA interviews for the second certers and beyond group. The next round of certs will occur likely September with hiring by December and training first part of the new year IMHO.
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Post by futuressaalj on Jun 13, 2014 7:42:17 GMT -5
I agree with funky that some of those not hired this cert will make the next set of certs and might likely be hired. I don't agree with funky's assumption of automatic hiring.of those people. I do think there will indeed be more SSA interviews for the second certers and beyond group. The next round of certs will occur likely September with hiring by December and training first part of the new year IMHO.I really like the highlighted portion of you post. I tried to double "like" but it did not work
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Post by westernalj on Jun 13, 2014 7:48:25 GMT -5
It seems to me that if it's two training classes, which it will be if over 60 are hired, then I think at least one class has to start by November at the latest.
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Post by hopefalj on Jun 13, 2014 7:49:28 GMT -5
i agree that makes sense Hound. But, i just cant see them needing or wanting to 3 strike more than 25% of this first cert given the lack of flexibility. 3 striking is how they did their manuevering in the past, but with single city certs it wont work the way it once did. plus, there is obviously a need for speed at play. Unless someone is a clear ill fit, a no rec, why waste the time of doing a ton more interviews when you are in a time crunch? They won't three-strike 25% of the first cert. But they will one- and two-strike numerous first cert members. One or two considerations in, and they can be three-struck. I'm interested to see if the second cert size is as proportionally limited as cert #1 or if they take into account people having a strike or two against them.
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Post by Ace Midnight on Jun 13, 2014 8:47:00 GMT -5
plus, there is obviously a need for speed at play. Unless someone is a clear ill fit, a no rec, why waste the time of doing a ton more interviews when you are in a time crunch? If they just hired all the insider vets, that would be fine with me.
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Post by BagLady on Jun 13, 2014 8:57:41 GMT -5
plus, there is obviously a need for speed at play. Unless someone is a clear ill fit, a no rec, why waste the time of doing a ton more interviews when you are in a time crunch? If they just hired all the insider vets, that would be fine with me. Seriously dislike. Ace, your stock just plummeted with me.
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Post by sealaw90 on Jun 13, 2014 9:05:25 GMT -5
i agree that makes sense Hound. But, i just cant see them needing or wanting to 3 strike more than 25% of this first cert given the lack of flexibility. 3 striking is how they did their manuevering in the past, but with single city certs it wont work the way it once did. plus, there is obviously a need for speed at play. Unless someone is a clear ill fit, a no rec, why waste the time of doing a ton more interviews when you are in a time crunch? They won't three-strike 25% of the first cert. But they will one- and two-strike numerous first cert members. One or two considerations in, and they can be three-struck. I'm interested to see if the second cert size is as proportionally limited as cert #1 or if they take into account people having a strike or two against them. Hopeful, I think the aircraft carrier (I christen her the USS ODAR) will have turned at least 90 degrees in the water before the second certs are requested, and SSA will be able to 'manipulate' the new system and get more people, so the second cert cities will not be as proportionally limited as the first bunch. I also agree that there were not very many folks 3-struck from this first go-round of interviews. Plus, SSA will also have a bunch of folks from the first cert who were interviewed, recommended, but just didn't get a slot, probably just as proportional to the amount of 3-strikers. Perhaps the sea change comes when they tell OPM that they plan on hiring 3 or 4 ALJs for City X, not just 1 or 2 ALJs per city - theoretically they would be able to see more folks further down on the register. Perhaps it's my wishful thinking, since we don't really know how many folks are sitting with the magical 'middle of the bell curve' score, but I'd like to think that my local ODAR has a broom closet they could turn into an office and I can get on the cert for that city. Interesting times and way more fun than speculating as to what stupid bad thing could happen on a Friday the 13th....
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Post by sandiferhands (old) on Jun 13, 2014 9:06:24 GMT -5
If they just hired all the insider vets, that would be fine with me. @ace: Do I detect a theme of sorts running through your posts? @funky: I agree with the gist of your comments--lots of 1st certers who didn't get offered will still be considered very viable candidates, and the number will be supplemented with enough second certers to give SSA a fair look at new faces and pick who they want. @anyone: In Funky's scenario, is there some point at which the dreaded Transfer List must be revisited before they do all this?
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Post by westernalj on Jun 13, 2014 9:13:42 GMT -5
They will work the transfer list before a new cert. This is the only way for them to know where the open slots really are.
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Post by Gram Pop on Jun 13, 2014 9:23:08 GMT -5
Perhaps it's my wishful thinking, since we don't really know how many folks are sitting with the magical 'middle of the bell curve' score, but I'd like to think that my local ODAR has a broom closet they could turn into an office and I can get on the cert for that city. Interesting times and way more fun than speculating as to what stupid bad thing could happen on a Friday the 13th.... I'm with you, sealaw. A broom closet would suit me fine. Windows can be so distracting when you are doing your best to churn out 700 meaningful decisions a year. My first job out of law school was at a small firm in a converted row house. My "office" was a desk on a landing on the stairway between the second and third floors. With a middle of the pack score and a limited GAL, I am not the least bit picky.
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Post by hilltopper on Jun 13, 2014 9:32:22 GMT -5
I'm with you, sealaw. A broom closet would suit me fine. Windows can be so distracting when you are doing your best to churn out 700 meaningful decisions a year. My first job out of law school was at a small firm in a converted row house. My "office" was a desk on a landing on the stairway between the second and third floors. With a middle of the pack score and a limited GAL, I am not the least bit picky. Great attitude O ... Your daily work life with that firm literally had its constant Ups and Downs. My first office was an M-60A1 tank. Kind of cramped. But my support staff was really close by and we could crush anything in our path. ht
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Post by sealaw90 on Jun 13, 2014 9:35:41 GMT -5
I'm with you, sealaw. A broom closet would suit me fine. Windows can be so distracting when you are doing your best to churn out 700 meaningful decisions a year. My first job out of law school was at a small firm in a converted row house. My "office" was a desk on a landing on the stairway between the second and third floors. With a middle of the pack score and a limited GAL, I am not the least bit picky. I had a lovely career on active duty, complete with many offices that had a view of the water/shipyard/piers, etc. My current digs are windowless, which was depressing at first, but like you said, when I'm churning out 700 cases a year, who has time to contemplete the view out the window? Oh yeah, and after a year, I can telework from my backyard deck on a regular basis - THAT beats any office with a window!!
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Post by funkyodar on Jun 13, 2014 9:39:04 GMT -5
Let's look at the timeline. Certs were requested in April. Notifications went out May 2. Interviews were first two weeks of June. During that period there were apparently supplemental certs for some cities and a whole new cert request for Morgantown. Those new certs apparently netted the same names as the first as i have seen no reports of someone not on the first now making morgantown for instance.
The best estimates no time frames remaining puts offers at the end of July or very early August. The two training classes are clearly calendared for September 15 and October 10. So, with the normal prereport notice times, start dates happening at the beginning of a pay period and the new plan to have newbies do 3 weeks at the new office pretraining, August 25 looks like the first group start date.
We know the original plan was to hire 90. But with the supplemental certs, the addition of morgantown and Sklars "200 by the end of the year" comments, i think this hire will be more than 90. Maybe not the full 120 i guesstimated above. 100 would be logical. A perfect split of the reported 200 with 50% in this fiscal, 50% in the next. So, if they do that, the second cert will be for 100 slots, just like the first and should take a similar amount of time to complete.
So, say they do all the offers and get acceptances for the first cert 100 slots in late July or early August. With those hired and thrice struck out of the way they could then do requests for the second round of certs.
if it is also for 100 + or - slots, there is no reason to believe opm will give them much more than the 168 names they got this time. Maybe GAL differences bumps it up to 180 or so. But, i really think as many as 30 of that 180 or so will be leftover from the first cert that werent 3 struck and are at least recommended. Those wont have to be reinterviewed and will logically be at the top of many of the certs by score. In any city where those 20 to 30 are the top 3, they dont even have to interview if they dont want to. But lets assume they go ahead and interview all the other 150 of the 180 that hasnt previously been interviewed. Following the timeline of this first cert, candidates could get notice of making the cert the first week of Sept. Interviews would be the first two weeks of October putting all that expense on next fiscal as is expected. I would guess offers would come the week after Thanksgiving. Those 100 or so hires would be done "before the end of the year," would have prereport date notice of the entire moth of December (Happy Holidays selectees) and would report the first new pay period Monday in January (the first group anyway) and begin training late January. Second group in late Feb.
Seems very doable to me.
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Post by funkyodar on Jun 13, 2014 9:48:38 GMT -5
The transfer list may well be the bugger for some on the first cert. Say they get hired in August. Their 90 days to transfer wont be up till December.
If the second group is hired in November or December, the transfer list will be worked just prior to that and before those first cert hires are eligible.
With 200 hires, i cant imagine any massive hiring for a while after so not many transfer opportunities. Sklar has previously said the first 2 hires from this register would be large but after that hiring would be smaller and targeted.
moral of the story, hopefully if hired in this first or second cert you really like your posting. You may be there for a while.
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NP
Full Member
Posts: 82
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Post by NP on Jun 13, 2014 9:53:26 GMT -5
Do they only work the transfer list before they hire, or do they do it at regular intervals, too (like once a year)?
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Post by cowboy on Jun 13, 2014 9:59:03 GMT -5
The transfer list may well be the bugger for some on the first cert. Say they get hired in August. Their 90 days to transfer wont be up till December. If the second group is hired in November or December, the transfer list will be worked just prior to that and before those first cert hires are eligible. With 200 hires, i cant imagine any massive hiring for a while after so not many transfer opportunities. Sklar has previously said the first 2 hires from this register would be large but after that hiring would be smaller and targeted. moral of the story, hopefully if hired in this first or second cert you really like your posting. You may be there for a while. There is a lot of truth to this. For the benefit of those of you new to the process, the Agency is bound by the contract with the ALJ Union that a transfer must be considered before a person is hired into an office. This is why you rarely if ever see someone hired into places like Miami, San Diego or Phoenix. The transfer list to these locations are long and people have been waiting a long time. It all depends on the location you want to go. If your home is in Toledo Ohio, more than likely a transfer will happen quickly (if you don't get hired there right away). Otherwise, there's been a restriction to transfers to California, and to a lesser extent, other places in the west or in Florida specifically because of the demand and the circumstances of the work there. If you can be patient, the job is worth it and you can always transfer home if not close enough. If you are too restrictive on your selection, you may wait a long time to be hired.
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Post by cowboy on Jun 13, 2014 10:01:07 GMT -5
Do they only work the transfer list before they hire, or do they do it at regular intervals, too (like once a year)? Other than the requirement to consider transfers before hiring, a transfer depends greatly on the needs of the agency. If they don't need someone in that office, they won't transfer even if there is a spot available. If they need the work the office where someone wants to go, a transfer is likely. That's they way it has been handled in the past.
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