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Post by Ace Midnight on Jul 2, 2014 13:16:15 GMT -5
I've just never been able to get past the numbers. 90 out of 160 ish seems a little high. I wouldn't be surprised to see it closer to 45. I've thought about that, too - with the best estimate of 800 to 900 on the register (and probably less than 800 with "hirable" GALs) - That would mean they would look at the entire register before hiring 200 - would they sheepishly go back to OPM as early as next year? Possible. Another alternative is they would have to look at the same people on a 3rd and 4th cert - assuming they continue to hire to replace attrition as it happens. But, I think, until they get a better feel of this new process, they have to "opt out" of a candidate, more so than cherry pick, at least these first couple of rounds, if they truly want to hire 180 to 200. If that was just an ideal goal, and they're really dissatisfied with large numbers of the first certers, then, you're right, the number could be much lower. Nobody's asking me, though.
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Post by ragnar on Jul 2, 2014 13:35:53 GMT -5
Forgive me as this is my first ALJ rodeo, but it does seem that if SSA has an objective of hiring around 200 ALJs before the end of this calendar year - then they would likely take as close to 90 as they are able on this go-around. Then, it would also seem that those that didn't get selected - but were on this cert - would/ should get a second bite at the apple for the cert expected at the beginning of the next FY. Just my two cents.
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Post by funkyodar on Jul 2, 2014 14:06:07 GMT -5
Forgive me as this is my first ALJ rodeo, but it does seem that if SSA has an objective of hiring around 200 ALJs before the end of this calendar year - then they would likely take as close to 90 as they are able on this go-around. Then, it would also seem that those that didn't get selected - but were on this cert - would/ should get a second bite at the apple for the cert expected at the beginning of the next FY. Just my two cents. I really think our viking friend is right. The cert is supposedly 168 folks. I'm betting that # isnt entirely right anymore. Some have declined consideration. Sure, they apparently did a supplemental cert, but so far none have claimed they werent on the cert till that Supplemental Saturday. So, I expect the supplement netted the same folks that were already on the certs, just expanding the number of cities some were contending for. So, my guess is there are now somewhere near 160 in contention. Further, I just cant see them hiring much less than 90. That's the number they have repeatedly pushed, they reportedly set two 45 person training classes, and the newly reported intent to hire 200 by calendar year end almost necessitates them not squandering whats left of this fiscal by filling less than they planned and budgeted for. So, that would mean 70 to 75 on the cert that dont get an offer. Some will undoubtedly be so undesirable that ssa 3 srikes them. But, I bet most will be "recommends" that didnt get an offer either because they were in direct competition with a "highly recommended" or because they were so low down the list they never received real consideration. I would wager that to be the case with 2/3 of the 70 to 75 that dont get offers. When the second cert rolls around, if its for the anticipated 110 hires, I see no evidence the cert process will have changed and reverted back to the old deal where 330 folks make the certs. I'm guessing it will be similar to this one and have maybe 200 names. And depending on gal, 40 or 50 of those will be from the nonselected on the first cert. Getting that second bite ragnar theorized. The only first certers that wont be on the second cert are 1) those that were hired, 2) those with gal that dont include second cert cities and 3) those thrice struck. But with this new process, I really dont think there will be as much 3 striking as years past, and.there wasnt just a ton of it back then.
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Post by ragnar on Jul 2, 2014 14:45:09 GMT -5
Funky - Glad you thought that made sense. Now I'm headed to consult with the norns...
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Post by hopefalj on Jul 2, 2014 14:51:47 GMT -5
I guess we'll see over the course of this month, funky. If I had a nickel for every time someone on this board uttered the phrase "I just don't see X happening..." during this process only to have X happen a week or two (or nine) down the road, I wouldn't be as excited about getting this gig because of my newfound wealth.
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Post by moopigsdad on Jul 2, 2014 14:52:08 GMT -5
I think people are reading too much into the 45 to 90 number. Perhaps Judge Bice meant 45 will come aboard almost fully trained this fiscal year and 90 will be aboard by the start of the next fiscal year as the second training class does start until after October 1, 2014. (Hence the 45 to 90 number.) I agree with Funky about the numbers hired out of the pool probably are close to 160 or so total names, however, I think there are more than a few (contrary to funky) that won't literally have a chance on the second set of certs when not picked up on the first set of certs because of either a bad interview or because of background check issues. We can see this example from many on the last register who had interviews but were never picked up on any subsequent cert for SSA. While some did indeed get picked up, many did not. Hence, I think SSA can be picky with who they want to hire and may do so, just so it can burn through the Register and say to OPM see the new way is not working at all for us.
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Post by 71stretch on Jul 2, 2014 14:56:38 GMT -5
I'm glad (sort of) to see the statement that the offers could take several weeks. So when the first offers come out, I can still hang on to my sanity for a while waiting for the call from Bob. Be glad if you want, but it's not going to take that long. I'm still betting on two weeks (10 business days) tops.
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Post by alj on Jul 2, 2014 15:45:06 GMT -5
To add a little more fuel, additional transfer offers are about to be made. Things are beginning to heat up again.
Looks like Pixie's information about a class starting in August may prove accurate.
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Post by hilltopper on Jul 2, 2014 15:57:08 GMT -5
To add a little more fuel, additional transfer offers are about to be made. Things are beginning to heat up again. Looks like Pixie's information about a class starting in August may prove accurate. I told you. ... From God's mouth to Pixie's ears. Hey Pixie ... what Powerball numbers do we need to play tonight??? Wait a minute -- just PM those numbers to me alone - that way when I win, I can remove my name from consideration and increase everyone else's chances. ht
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Post by privateatty on Jul 2, 2014 15:58:36 GMT -5
I think people are reading too much into the 45 to 90 number. Perhaps Judge Bice meant 45 will come aboard fully trained this fiscal year and 90 will be aboard by the start of the next fiscal year as the second training class does end until after October 1, 2014. (Hence the 45 to 90 number.) I agree with Funky about the numbers hired out of the pool probably are close to 160 or so total names, however, I think there are more than a few (contrary to funky) that won't literally have a chance on the second set of certs when not picked up on the first set of certs because of either a bad interview or because of background check issues. We can see this example from many on the last register who had interviews but were never picked up on any subsequent cert for SSA. While some did indeed get picked up, many did not. Hence, I think SSA can be picky with who they want to hire and may do so, just so it can burn through the Register and say to OPM see the new way is not working at all for us. Don't you think that the CALJ's Office is still unsure of how this whole new Cert for Each City Process is going to play out against only 168? No more three-striking though a couple dozen or more in one Cert. It all reminds me of how we used to write initial evaluations to our clients as defense attorneys. "Cautiously optimistic" could be any shade of grey.
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Post by funkyodar on Jul 2, 2014 16:13:08 GMT -5
I'm certainly not one to doubt Pixie and I absolutely wish they were doing a new alj hiring in August. But, two factors make me doubt it. First, the training unit's calendar that has been reported here says the training in August is refresher training for existjng aljs. It has the first new alj training scheduled in September with a second class in August.
Second, is the calendar. That first class is reportedly gonna start Sept 15. So to have time to squeeze in a full 30 days before that for another class, that class would have to begin around mid August. Now they require 3 weeks in the new office before training, meaning those in the purported August class would have to start no later than July 28. It is July 3 and we dont have offers yet. The earliest intel suggests anyone will get an offer is July 9. THhose lucky few woukd have just 19 notice. I suppose that is possible. But if the offers take two weeks (and possible more) as suggested, some would get their offer with just 5 days notice.
I have certainly been wrong in the past. And Pix is usually way more right than wrong. But I strongly suspect someone got their intel mixed up on a new alj training class in August.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2014 16:23:45 GMT -5
Unless they do training before the 3 weeks in office. It may be the only way to make the schedule work.
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Post by hopefalj on Jul 2, 2014 17:36:23 GMT -5
I think people are reading too much into the 45 to 90 number. Perhaps Judge Bice meant 45 will come aboard fully trained this fiscal year and 90 will be aboard by the start of the next fiscal year as the second training class does end until after October 1, 2014. (Hence the 45 to 90 number.) I agree with Funky about the numbers hired out of the pool probably are close to 160 or so total names, however, I think there are more than a few (contrary to funky) that won't literally have a chance on the second set of certs when not picked up on the first set of certs because of either a bad interview or because of background check issues. We can see this example from many on the last register who had interviews but were never picked up on any subsequent cert for SSA. While some did indeed get picked up, many did not. Hence, I think SSA can be picky with who they want to hire and may do so, just so it can burn through the Register and say to OPM see the new way is not working at all for us. Don't you think that the CALJ's Office is still unsure of how this whole new Cert for Each City Process is going to play out against only 168? No more three-striking though a couple dozen or more in one Cert. I don't see why that would change. They have all the players before them and know the locations, so they can figure out how to plow through people to reach those they want if they so choose. I would take the over on a dozen folks being three struck on the first cert. The big change is they're short about 130 names from the previous register, so three striking and hiring through the certs could result in the inability to hire all 90 judges. Then again, it's possible that would be used as leverage to get more unique names on the future certs.
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Post by JudgeRatty on Jul 2, 2014 19:33:47 GMT -5
I think people are reading too much into the 45 to 90 number. Perhaps Judge Bice meant 45 will come aboard almost fully trained this fiscal year and 90 will be aboard by the start of the next fiscal year as the second training class does start until after October 1, 2014. (Hence the 45 to 90 number.) I agree with Funky about the numbers hired out of the pool probably are close to 160 or so total names, however, I think there are more than a few (contrary to funky) that won't literally have a chance on the second set of certs when not picked up on the first set of certs because of either a bad interview or because of background check issues. We can see this example from many on the last register who had interviews but were never picked up on any subsequent cert for SSA. While some did indeed get picked up, many did not. Hence, I think SSA can be picky with who they want to hire and may do so, just so it can burn through the Register and say to OPM see the new way is not working at all for us. Exactly. 2 classes of 45.
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