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Post by BagLady on Jul 10, 2014 12:21:43 GMT -5
I think at some point, max momentum will have built up (maybe after the group AM talked about in her first post) and the offers will come faster. I'd be interested to know what happens if someone declines a lower-ranked city ("Don't like Cleveland? How about Tupelo?"). Is there a follow-up offer with a higher-ranked city? In other words, are they hiring the person or a body for a specific location? Conventional wisdom has it that you don't decline an offer from SSA or you will commit register suicide. Does that wisdom still hold up under the current ranked GAL process? I would not decline an offer and willingly put myself through this waiting game again.
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Post by buckeye on Jul 10, 2014 12:37:09 GMT -5
I agree. We certainly have had plenty of time to think about whether we want the job or not. AND what city we are willing to move to. I really can't wrap my head around why it is going so very, very slowly.
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Post by WhereIsTheFrontDoor on Jul 10, 2014 12:38:18 GMT -5
Maybe they are offering folks who are not on the board?
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Post by Ace Midnight on Jul 10, 2014 12:41:18 GMT -5
This is where we could use a little insider (real, not like my wannabe insider stuff - anybody at ODAR can see if Bob G is logged into Lync/Office Communicator) info - I just posed the question on the poll, but with 5 current votes on the cities poll (Tupelo was suspect yesterday, but now, not so much) - assuming they are all valid, wouldn't that represent 12 to 15 offers - based on board membership being roughly 1/3 of the total population of the register and certificate? That's not terrible for about 1 day of offers. That's 90 slots filled by the end of next week, easily, perhaps sooner if the pace picks up.
You are all lawyers, where am I going wrong? I know it is based on assumptions, but we don't have anything else right now.
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Post by funkyodar on Jul 10, 2014 12:42:22 GMT -5
Attempting to get selectees in a city they prefer is, I suspect, one of the main reasons it is taking so long.
In the past, only two factors really played into it. One, did they want you? IE, were you recommended. And two, could they reach you in some city on your gal. IE, were you in the top 3 for some locale with vet pref or with no one above you with vet pref. The gamesmanship was how to maneuver you into a reachable position through 3 striking or whatever in some, any city on your gal and on the cert.
Now though, they still have those two factors, but there is a third metric (if they are really giving credence to preferences.) Now they have to want you, you have to be reachable or reachable with some maneuvering, in one of your preferred cities.
I suspect those that have been offered already were very high on their particular number 1 choice cities (like AM). Thus, getting offers out to them took little or no gamesmanship. They were the easy ones because they naturally had all three boxes checked. They were recommended. They were number 1, 2 or 3 and were either vets themselves or had no vets above them. And they were reachable in their preferred city.
So take the easy ones. Then reappraise and see if by removing them (and anyone you got rid of to get them) the resulting shuffle allowed any of of your other selectees to fall into a spot where all three boxes are checked.
If that's the case, the offer process would naturally start with a trickle and cascade to more and faster. With each selection, the board ripples and shuffles. In turn, more people move into gettable positions.
So, the first few rounds of offers are slow, but each successive round gets bigger and quicker.
Just a thought
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Post by westernalj on Jul 10, 2014 12:43:12 GMT -5
The OMHA new hires are at the top of the register. Once they decline it probably takes some time to adjust. So maybe it will be faster soon. On the other hand, many applicants may feel it's appropriate to take time to talk to their spouse or otherwise think about this big decision one final time - especially non - board members.
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Post by Ace Midnight on Jul 10, 2014 12:59:29 GMT -5
Funky reminded me in the poll thread that board membership may make up to 1/2 of the first certificate. If that's the case (and Greenville is back on the poll, BTW) - then we may be at 10 to 12 slots filled after 1 full day (and change) - is the consensus that the offers started roughly mid-day yesterday, July 9th?
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Post by hal3000 on Jul 10, 2014 13:03:35 GMT -5
Maybe they are torturing us so we are simply willing to go anywhere they ask.
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Post by Missundaztood on Jul 10, 2014 13:15:55 GMT -5
Now they have to want you, you have to be reachable or reachable with some maneuvering, in one of your preferred cities. Bob, I'm "reachable" by my cell (or at home or on my office number) in my preferred city, home.
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Post by hopeful41 on Jul 10, 2014 13:33:19 GMT -5
Hello all!
I'm a long-time lurker and haven't posted before now because I haven't had much to offer to the discussion. So, thank you all for providing so much information and encouragement to one another and to other lurkers on the board.
Query: If they want to get anywhere near 90 fills with only 168 applicants don't they have to fill the cities that the fewest people said they'd go to first? Put another way, if they fill the cities via preference, or from east coast to west, it seems like they will reach cities at the end for which there will be no remaining applicants. Seems to me that the only way they can fill all or most vacacies is to fill the cities in an order inversely proportional to their popularity. That way, the high scorers with wide-open GALs would fill many of those positions while simultaneously falling off of the lists in the more sought-after locales. Looking at the poll results, they certainly could be proceeding in this fashion. Thoughts?
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Post by funkyodar on Jul 10, 2014 13:38:26 GMT -5
Welcome.
I thought about your theory too. But Richmond is a popular locale. And tupelo had four votes in our poll for number 1 preference.
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Post by Ace Midnight on Jul 10, 2014 13:42:27 GMT -5
Hello all! Query: If they want to get anywhere near 90 fills with only 168 applicants don't they have to fill the cities that the fewest people said they'd go to first? This is good analysis - but for the new preference system - the initial holdup may be just this issue - how to accomodate the top scorers' preferences and still have enough candidates you want to fill all 90 spots. Or they may be taking them 1 at a time as the new process has been reported to require. But, as to your basic premise, I would agree - logic should dictate that the city on the fewest desireable candidates should get filled first, giving you more and more options as you go. If you started the other way, you would eventually be left with fewer than 3 and perhaps nobody at the least desireable locations (having hired them elsewhere.)
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Post by 71stretch on Jul 10, 2014 13:43:53 GMT -5
Welcome. I thought about your theory too. But Richmond is a popular locale. And tupelo had four votes in our poll for number 1 preference. I think we also have to keep in mind, with at least some of our polls (like that preference one) that their accuracy is questionable. We've had people admit to some leg pulling with posts/poll answers. With Tupelo being described by others here as part of "crapland", who's to say that some of those preference poll votes for Tupelo weren't joking and just aren't saying?
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Post by Ace Midnight on Jul 10, 2014 13:47:57 GMT -5
With Tupelo being described by others here as part of "crapland", who's to say that some of those preference poll votes for Tupelo weren't joking and just aren't saying? And we talked about that in a thread - I initially was taken aback by the popularity of both Tupelo and Shreveport - but upon further review, nothing in Dallas or Arkansas makes Shreveport make more sense - likewise, nothing in Alabama or Memphis - really only Tupelo, Alexandria, Shreveport and Harlingen in the deep South - with the rest of the southern cities in the more genteel (no offense intended to my deep south brothers and sisters) areas of the CSA - Tennessee, Virginia and the Carolinas. It may have been pranking or it may have been "by default" - or some combination.
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Post by Missundaztood on Jul 10, 2014 13:51:27 GMT -5
It is hard to know for sure. One person's crapland is another person's first choice. 168 people means lots of variety. Someone had to have turned down my "home" for it to show up on my supplemental GAL.
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Post by Missundaztood on Jul 10, 2014 13:55:25 GMT -5
I wonder when I will get some work done.
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Post by hopeful41 on Jul 10, 2014 13:59:39 GMT -5
Thanks for the opines. I share the skepticism regarding the validity of the survey re: Tupelo. Richmond did surprise me insofar as the applicability of my theory, but I figured that Richomond was, perhaps, not as popular as I imagined it would be.
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Post by anotherfed on Jul 10, 2014 14:02:02 GMT -5
In the poll on which Cert people made, Richmond had smaller numbers than other cities -- which surprised me, because I would think its proximity to DC would put it up there in popularity.
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Post by gary on Jul 10, 2014 14:15:47 GMT -5
I wonder when I will get some work done. Quick! Somebody put up a poll!
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Post by moopigsdad on Jul 10, 2014 14:38:25 GMT -5
Looks like I'm out based on the poll...Good Luck to all and I guess I'll see the rest of you in a few months (??) for the 2nd cert! There certainly be more than 1 or 2 openings in any of the cities on the cert, so don't give up just yet patiently.
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