First Cert Hiring: What Happened?

[surfdude]

In retrospect, it looks like SSA knew or expected for quite some time it would hire around 68-70 rather than 90 in this first cert process. Remember the chief judge's reported comments in early July or so that SSA planned to hire "between 45 and 90" new ALJs with this first cert process? Those comments were right on the mark. Speculation/worry on this board that second class (October) training might be cancelled proved half correct. But why the lowering of the hiring number from 90 to 68-70? I suspect it is due to many cert cities becoming unavailable or less available for new hires, due to recent transfers in presumably. Our board polls seem to have captured just about all the new hires, and our polls show no new hires in certed cities such as Albuquerque, Las Vegas, Orland Park, Chattanooga and Greenville and many one-hire cities. While certain other locations had openings for 3 or more new hires, that was not enough to even things out and open up the full 90 slots.

In terms of three-striking, obviously no one should worry if their GAL consisted of cities for which no new hires apparently were made. On the other hand, if any candidates had a score of 78-plus, for example, and had Cleveland and Paducah, or Mount Pleasant and Valparaiso, for example, on their GALs, then by definition such candidates must have been three-struck, according to the board's polling research and reports on scores and hires in those cities. It appears there probably had to have been significant three-striking to reach as many of the fortunate 74s and 75s that are now new ALJs.

Just some thoughts on first cert hiring in retrospect. Others may have additional observations and comments. Good luck to all!

[gary]

One interesting aspect of what happened is the reports of starting dates. At first they were all for August. Then they switched to all September. At the end they switched again to all August. It is possible SSA thought they would hire close to the full 90 until about the time they switched back to putting newbies in the August starting group. Or maybe not.

[robespierre]

Good post, Surfdude, I think your analysis is right on, both as to (a) transfers being the reason for the lower-than-forecast hiring, and (b) the probability that some 3-striking occurred.

On the lower-than-forecast hiring, note that most (but admittedly not all) of the certed cities with zero hiring in the poll are warm weather places. I could definitely see 60ish sitting ALJs transferring to, for example, Las Vegas or Albuquerque, thus eliminating the expected need for hiring there.