|
Post by mikeinthehills on Aug 14, 2014 7:20:04 GMT -5
Because it's what we do best.
I'm an outsider and a have a decent chance at the second cert. Now that it's been confirmed that the first hire was 70, I'm curious as to what you all think are the possible reasons that the hire wasn't closer to the predicted 90. That surprised me given that this group was the creme de la creme of the register.
Funky posted that insiders made up half the hire. Today we hear it was closer to 25%. Is ODAR looking for more insiders on the second cert? Or were they happy with the first group and just want to get deeper into the register to see what's there with many vets out of the way? Or are they looking for a different profile of applicant than appeared on the first cert?
Also, given the hire was 70, do you think they will try to get 130 more on the second cert, or will they break the additional 130 into two hires, one this fall and the second next spring?
Any WAG"s would be greatly appreciated.
|
|
|
Post by westernalj on Aug 14, 2014 8:54:52 GMT -5
If memory serves, the training room only holds 60. So either 120 max or 3 classes?
|
|
|
Post by gary on Aug 14, 2014 10:16:11 GMT -5
My WAG would be they shoot for 130. If they can get 130, then they may go with 3 classes. If like with the first certs they can't get the 130 they are looking for, two classes may work just fine.
|
|
|
Post by futuressaalj on Aug 14, 2014 10:17:27 GMT -5
My WAG would be they shoot for 130. If they can get 130, then they may go with 3 classes. If like with the first certs they can't get the 130 they are looking for, two classes may work just fine. After the first round they have probably developed a process that might streamline the selections and will be more efficient.
|
|
|
Post by gary on Aug 14, 2014 10:19:22 GMT -5
My WAG would be they shoot for 130. If they can get 130, then they may go with 3 classes. If like with the first certs they can't get the 130 they are looking for, two classes may work just fine. After the first round they have probably developed a process that might streamline the selections and will be more efficient. Agreed.
|
|
|
Post by orchid on Aug 14, 2014 10:23:20 GMT -5
My WAG would be they shoot for 130. If they can get 130, then they may go with 3 classes. If like with the first certs they can't get the 130 they are looking for, two classes may work just fine. After the first round they have probably developed a process that might streamline the selections and will be more efficient. The 64k question is WHEN? ?
|
|
|
Post by gary on Aug 14, 2014 10:36:12 GMT -5
We have intel SSA is lining up interviewers for November and that they want to hire--not start--a total of 200 ALJs by the end of the year. If all that holds, it would seem to mean the madness will begin anew in September.
|
|
|
Post by anotherfed on Aug 14, 2014 10:43:03 GMT -5
We have intel SSA is lining up interviewers for November and that they want to hire--not start--a total of 200 ALJs by the end of the year. If all that holds, it would seem to mean the madness will begin anew in September. Woo hoo!
|
|
witty
Full Member
i tawt i taw a puddy tat (Livingston/Foster/May/ made famous by Tweety B.)
Posts: 66
|
Post by witty on Aug 14, 2014 11:05:43 GMT -5
We have intel SSA is lining up interviewers for November and that they want to hire--not start--a total of 200 ALJs by the end of the year. If all that holds, it would seem to mean the madness will begin anew in September. So does the intel mean that ODAR is hiring another 130 (200 (target no. for new hires in 2014) - 70 (already hired in 2014) = 130 (to be hired in 2014)?
|
|
|
Post by gary on Aug 14, 2014 11:13:44 GMT -5
We have intel SSA is lining up interviewers for November and that they want to hire--not start--a total of 200 ALJs by the end of the year. If all that holds, it would seem to mean the madness will begin anew in September. So does the intel mean that ODAR is hiring another 130 (200 (target no. for new hires in 2014) - 70 (already hired in 2014) = 130 (to be hired in 2014)? Yes--130 added to the 70 already hired. This assumes that the 200 total intel was correct when it was reported. I believe it was because it came from very reliable sources. It also assumes that SSA has not changed its hiring plans. I am less certain of this, though I would think they would stick to the plans since they still need the judges and they still have the money to hire them.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2014 13:09:09 GMT -5
Based on careful analysis of the legit info, rumors, and WAGs that I've read on this board for well over a year (I lurked for several months before joining in 8/13), my WAG is that ODAR will do what they do, when they do it.
|
|
|
Post by ok1956 on Aug 14, 2014 14:04:10 GMT -5
Based on careful analysis of the legit info, rumors, and WAGs that I've read on this board for well over a year (I lurked for several months before joining in 8/13), my WAG is that ODAR will do what they do, when they do it. What ul said. :-)
|
|
|
Post by gary on Aug 14, 2014 14:33:46 GMT -5
Based on careful analysis of the legit info, rumors, and WAGs that I've read on this board for well over a year (I lurked for several months before joining in 8/13), my WAG is that ODAR will do what they do, when they do it. What ul said. :-) Wow! I admire you two for going way out there on that limb!
|
|
|
Post by Gaidin on Aug 14, 2014 15:37:20 GMT -5
I think up and Ok have hit the nail on the head. However, not doing any additional speculation would be terribly boring. I figure November interviews are as solid as any other intel on this board. That probably means that Certs in late September.
The interesting question is when do new ALJs start work. If we accept that no one will start until after the first of the year. I think that unless interviews are earlier than November this is the only thing that makes sense.
The first pay period of CY2015 is January 11. The next pay period - at least 4 weeks later - is Feb 8. The training takes 4 weeks so there must be a 4 week gap between start dates. The next one at least 4 weeks after that is March 8. If they hire 130 then they need 3 classes. If it's 120 or less then it could be done in 2 classes.
Given how this hiring played out I think the January 11 start date is reasonable. What does anybody else think?
|
|
|
Post by ok1956 on Aug 14, 2014 16:03:27 GMT -5
I must admit, I would be very interested in speculation about possible cities on the next cert - being one of those with a small GAL....
|
|
|
Post by futuressaalj on Aug 14, 2014 16:07:53 GMT -5
How long did interviews take this last cert? November really only has three weeks because of Thanksgiving which this year falls on the last week. Can they get all of the interviews done in three weeks? If they interviewed about 168 for 70 positions, they would need a 200-300 people to fill 100 positions.
|
|
|
Post by Missundaztood on Aug 14, 2014 16:37:32 GMT -5
Future, I am guessing that if they really wanted to get interviews over quickly they could run more panels simultaneously. If I recall correctly, the first cert took about two weeks for interviews, maybe just into a third for stragglers?
|
|
|
Post by mikeinthehills on Aug 14, 2014 16:51:31 GMT -5
Because it's what we do best. I'm an outsider and a have a decent chance at the second cert. Now that it's been confirmed that the first hire was 70, I'm curious as to what you all think are the possible reasons that the hire wasn't closer to the predicted 90. That surprised me given that this group was the creme de la creme of the register. Funky posted that insiders made up half the hire. Today we hear it was closer to 25%. Is ODAR looking for more insiders on the second cert? Or were they happy with the first group and just want to get deeper into the register to see what's there with many vets out of the way? Or are they looking for a different profile of applicant than appeared on the first cert? Also, given the hire was 70, do you think they will try to get 130 more on the second cert, or will they break the additional 130 into two hires, one this fall and the second next spring? Any WAG"s would be greatly appreciated. The speculation on the timeline of the second cert and hire is interesting, but the more interesting question to me is why only 70 hires on the first cert and what that portends for the second cert. I'm an outsider and have no idea what drove the result of the first cert. Is there an insider who might want to speculate as to what happened and what it means to us scobies?
|
|
|
Post by hopefalj on Aug 14, 2014 17:02:22 GMT -5
At the outset, let me set forth the disclaimer that I am not trying to instigate an insider-outsider debate. It is pretty well settled that both insiders and outsiders can be some of the greatest assets the agency has as well as some of the biggest albatrosses around the agency's neck. This post has nothing to do with the qualitative abilities of any candidates or a commentary on the fairness of how things are done. It is simply my uneducated WAG at why the hires were limited to 70 based on my review of this board and the prior hiring practices. Also, if you have hypertension, be warned as you should take this post with an enormous grain of salt.
OPM changed the way the hiring game was played by forcing all agencies to submit city-by-city certs rather than a single cert for all of the requested cities. Instead of getting 3 times the number of requested openings, OPM limited the number of total candidates SSA could hire from. It was reported in late March that there was an ongoing back and forth with SSA and OPM over the total number of names provided with the first 45 certs. SSA wanted more to give it more flexibility to hire desired candidates, and OPM responded that it provided plenty of qualified candidates to fill the 90 spots. I believe the AALJ newsletter indicated SSA got around 2200 total names on all the certs combined, but that represented only 158 unique names (which is likely a typo of the original 168 reported). 168 represents at least 100 fewer candidates than SSA formerly received and severely restricted the flexibility they previously had to reach down into the cert to pick their favored candidates. None of this is my WAG. It is simply the basis for my WAG, which is this...
Like just about every entity in the world, SSA wants to have as much control over the people it hires as possible. The more candidates they can consider, the greater the odds that they can fill most of their openings with people they really want. They received 168 names for 90 openings, received the candidates' e-mails that struck certain locations, and could reasonably figure out how to work the certificates to reach as many favorites as possible. This most likely involved a significant amount of three-striking, which again, is simply my guess. Like Jon Snow, I know nothing, but it's a means to get rid of a significant number of applicants if so desired (significant meaning 10-20%). I don't think they plowed through 60 or whatever the max was. However, in making hires and three-striking people, I think it's very possible they left multiple certs with only two possible candidates remaining from the initial 25 or so on the list.
What would be the reason behind this? Because now they can go back to OPM and say, "See? We told you that you didn't give us enough names to hire the 90 we needed this year. We need more unique names per opening on our subsequent certs, or we'll never be able to make the requested hires." Even if my WAG is remotely accurate, I'm not sure how effective the ploy would be, and it's possible OPM tells ODAR to get its shine box. But if it doesn't work, I anticipate that ODAR will request names for 130 openings like gary predicated because it will give them a large number of names. If they don't find 130 candidates that they want off cert 2, they'll hire short again and roll the difference over to a third cert, which I bet will happen sometime in February. If OPM continues to refuse to provide more names per opening, they'll just hack their way through the names again.
Honestly, I will not be surprised if there is a fourth cert in the summer of 2015 to fill whatever gap remains between the desired number of total hires in FY 2014 and 2015 less the total hires from certs 1-3. It would probably be much smaller than the first three (20-40?) and much easier to put together (one training class, very few interviews, etc.). But these are merely the ramblings of a message board mad man...
|
|
|
Post by JudgeRatty on Aug 14, 2014 17:42:35 GMT -5
How long did interviews take this last cert? November really only has three weeks because of Thanksgiving which this year falls on the last week. Can they get all of the interviews done in three weeks? If they interviewed about 168 for 70 positions, they would need a 200-300 people to fill 100 positions. Don't forget there will be folks on this next round who have already had their interview, so there will not be a full 130 more interviews if they wanted to hire another 130 to finish off the planned 200 for this cal year. Everyone gets only one SSA interview per register, so that will be a factor.
|
|