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Post by JudgeRatty on Aug 14, 2014 17:47:08 GMT -5
Because it's what we do best. I'm an outsider and a have a decent chance at the second cert. Now that it's been confirmed that the first hire was 70, I'm curious as to what you all think are the possible reasons that the hire wasn't closer to the predicted 90. That surprised me given that this group was the creme de la creme of the register. Funky posted that insiders made up half the hire. Today we hear it was closer to 25%. Is ODAR looking for more insiders on the second cert? Or were they happy with the first group and just want to get deeper into the register to see what's there with many vets out of the way? Or are they looking for a different profile of applicant than appeared on the first cert? Also, given the hire was 70, do you think they will try to get 130 more on the second cert, or will they break the additional 130 into two hires, one this fall and the second next spring? Any WAG"s would be greatly appreciated. The speculation on the timeline of the second cert and hire is interesting, but the more interesting question to me is why only 70 hires on the first cert and what that portends for the second cert. I'm an outsider and have no idea what drove the result of the first cert. Is there an insider who might want to speculate as to what happened and what it means to us scobies? It could be as simple as they ran out of time due to the time it took to get acceptances. They needed to fill as many slots as they could with so many offices in desperate need of more ALJs. I wouldn't read into it too much. This was the first go at the new process, and they probably have a better idea now of what they need to do and how long it will take. The funding is there, the ALJs are needed, the plan is to hire as many as they can, so it will happen. And I keep saying....don't forget, the first 200 was simply a goal by the year end, it doesn't stop there. Attrition is continuing on and ALJs are needed. This is a very good time to be on the register!
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Post by 71stretch on Aug 14, 2014 17:59:56 GMT -5
How long did interviews take this last cert? November really only has three weeks because of Thanksgiving which this year falls on the last week. Can they get all of the interviews done in three weeks? If they interviewed about 168 for 70 positions, they would need a 200-300 people to fill 100 positions. A lot of the people on the first cert will be on the second one. They won't reinterview, so that will save some time.
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Post by Gaidin on Aug 15, 2014 9:50:47 GMT -5
A math exercise about the 2nd cert.
A$$umptions for this exercise: There were 168 people interviewed on the 1st cert; ODAR requested certs for 90 positions on the 1st cert; This ratio of 168 : 90 will continue to be the norm of applicants versus positions; 70 of those people were hired; ODAR intends to request certs for 130 positions on the 2nd cert; ODAR only interviews each applicant once per register; and 20% of the people who were not hired by ODAR from the first cert will not be included in the next round (insufficient GAL, 3 struck, hired by OMHA, or self-select out).
How many 1st certers will be on the 2nd cert? 168 – 70 = 98 98*.2 = 20 (19.6) 98 – 20 = 78
How many people will be interviewed on the 2nd cert? 168 : 90 = 243 (242.6) : 130 How many people will ODAR have to interview the 2nd time around? 243 – 78 = 165
Interesting conclusions that can be drawn from this: If this is true ODAR will have interviewed over 330 people on the current register by the end of the 2nd cert. I tend to agree with the speculation that the register is only about 900 people to begin with. That means that about a 3rd of all candidates will have been interviewed by the end of the 2nd cert.
If OMHA hires even 5 or 6 people off the register it can have a huge impact down the register.
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Post by Missundaztood on Aug 15, 2014 10:16:04 GMT -5
G, but the number of people on a cert increases if there are a bunch with small GALs on the cert. I think your math problem assume this constant, which in reality is a huge variable that can't be figured yet based on cert cities and GALs but gives us an approximation. Also, declinations of locations may add to the numbers and/or give folks additional cities. So really it is more of a moving target. I love that you try to give some logic to this process.
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Post by Gaidin on Aug 15, 2014 10:46:06 GMT -5
Miss I think that the number of people with small GALs is fairly evenly distributed across the score range. More people with small GALs will be in the next set of scores because there are more people in the next set of scores. Declinations certainly added a few people but it looks like a very small number.
I hope I didn't give the impression that I thought those were anything like hard numbers. My initial thought process was to see how long interviews would take for the 2nd cert. But then it led me to some other questions.
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Post by Missundaztood on Aug 15, 2014 10:51:02 GMT -5
Perfectly clear, G. Particularly in a thread with "speculation" in the title. And I agreed, you gave us a good approximation.
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Post by mikeinthehills on Aug 15, 2014 11:15:24 GMT -5
Gaiden, that's just the kind of speculation I was looking for with this post! Thanks!
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Post by futuressaalj on Aug 15, 2014 11:30:06 GMT -5
Gaiden, thank you for putting that together. Definately do able in three weeks in November I am thinking.
Having said that, I doubt that the agency will be able to meet their goal to hire 200 by the end of the calendar year. It took them a little over two monts to hire 70 and there were no holidays or weather related delays.
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Post by gary on Aug 15, 2014 12:08:54 GMT -5
I am estimating about 194 new names on the second certs.
First cert carryovers I estimate will be 51 + (46 - the number three-struck)
If 20 were 3-struck
194 + 51 + (46 - 20) = 271
So I'd put the total second cert number at about 270 or so
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Post by luckylady2 on Aug 15, 2014 12:21:40 GMT -5
A couple of thoughts:
- Just because the training room can hold 60 doesn't mean that's an ideal class size or what ODAR wants to train at a time.
- Yes definitely ODAR will try to hire the full FTE they were allocated within the time frame (end of 2015?). They can run as many cycles as they want till that's accomplished.
- Because there's more outsiders in this register, there may be a greater percentage of people with narrow GALs than in the past. ODAR's solicitation & honoring of preferences is also something new. AND then there's the OPM switch-up of the way certs are pulled. So ODAR may still be on a learning curve to get the results they want from the process. The second round of certs will undoubtedly go deeper into the register. But the really really interesting part will be to see which cities they request. My bet is that it still will not be a full-blown, every-place-we-want-to-hire round of certs. My WAG is that it will be another small, but respectable, number of towns, still where they need the most people the fastest.
- Gaidin, I think your pay periods (potential start dates) are off. There's too many weeks/days between Jan 11 & Feb 8. It looks like there should be another in between
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Post by Gaidin on Aug 15, 2014 12:39:40 GMT -5
I used the calendar here: www.nfc.usda.gov/Forms/1217n_15.pdfI left at least 4 weeks between classes because of the training period. A consideration regarding training periods would be that if they hire for NHC's the training for those supposedly takes 6 weeks.
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Post by gary on Aug 15, 2014 12:44:11 GMT -5
I used the calendar here: www.nfc.usda.gov/Forms/1217n_15.pdfI left at least 4 weeks between classes because of the training period. A consideration regarding training periods would be that if they hire for NHC's the training for those supposedly takes 6 weeks. They could do a hire where the first class was non-NHC and the second class was NHC and have 4 weeks between start dates. They'd need longer if class one trashed the training room.
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Post by cheesy on Aug 15, 2014 12:58:05 GMT -5
I used the calendar here: www.nfc.usda.gov/Forms/1217n_15.pdfI left at least 4 weeks between classes because of the training period. A consideration regarding training periods would be that if they hire for NHC's the training for those supposedly takes 6 weeks. They could do a hire where the first class was non-NHC and the second class was NHC and have 4 weeks between start dates. They'd need longer if class one trashed the training room. I'd suspect a mandatory field day on the last day, with the Class Leader forced to do pushups until the room is spotless.
And I mean "field day" in the military context, not the fifth grader context. (That was a very rude surprise for me a long time ago!)
That is, until the Class Leader then files a disability claim...
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Post by Gaidin on Aug 15, 2014 13:07:08 GMT -5
I believe the 1st cert will be for 130 hires and about 65 cities. I doubt they hire 130 or in 65 cities but I think they will use it as an opportunity to get as broad a view of the pool as possible. This is probably their best shot at seeing the bulk of us that make up the middle of the curve.
I think they do interviews late October early November and hire in the first 2 weeks of December for the first class and dribble the next class or classes out through the first 2 weeks of January.
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Post by JudgeRatty on Aug 15, 2014 13:08:56 GMT -5
I used the calendar here: www.nfc.usda.gov/Forms/1217n_15.pdfI left at least 4 weeks between classes because of the training period. A consideration regarding training periods would be that if they hire for NHC's the training for those supposedly takes 6 weeks. The last NHC hire I spoke to said the additional 2 weeks training came a little later and not all at once so it wasn't a 6 week stretch.
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Post by anotherfed on Aug 15, 2014 15:36:35 GMT -5
I used the calendar here: www.nfc.usda.gov/Forms/1217n_15.pdfI left at least 4 weeks between classes because of the training period. A consideration regarding training periods would be that if they hire for NHC's the training for those supposedly takes 6 weeks. They could do a hire where the first class was non-NHC and the second class was NHC and have 4 weeks between start dates. They'd need longer if class one trashed the training room. Okay, so here's the scene I'm picturing: Steve7650, ALJMojo, RetIndyCop, and Manatiki are having a jam session in the corner. Tigerlaw and FunkyODAR have their ties around their foreheads (Fraternity boy style) and are throwing chairs and smashing computers. In another corner, Baglady is mixing drinks, while Manatiki passes them out. Cat has a hot plate set up and is making some nibbles. AgilityMom is trying to train Shrek, Geuxtiger, and Undespairing how to jump through a hoop, but they are stubborn and independent and not food motivated (thanks to Cat's munchies). DukeHoops is, what else, shooting trashcan baskets while Guac and nqcebxxte try to block. There's a reason the HR folks hate it when the ALJs come to town ...
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Post by crab on Aug 16, 2014 7:31:41 GMT -5
Since it's a swag(y) kind of morning, re training for the second round of hires, does anyone know if they've ever run a training with a federal holiday sammiched in there? If not, looks like January 25th would be the earliest report, rather than 1/11, with training starting right after Washington's Birthday (like they've done for the 9/22 first cert group starting after Columbus Day). Anytime after 1/25 works to run several trainings in that long stretch without federal holidays ... the weather is a different matter entirely!
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Post by hopefalj on Aug 16, 2014 9:18:12 GMT -5
Since it's a swag(y) kind of morning, re training for the second round of hires, does anyone know if they've ever run a training with a federal holiday sammiched in there? If not, looks like January 25th would be the earliest report, rather than 1/11, with training starting right after Washington's Birthday (like they've done for the 9/22 first cert group starting after Columbus Day). Anytime after 1/25 works to run several trainings in that long stretch without federal holidays ... the weather is a different matter entirely! Last year's class was supposed to include Columbus Day before the whole shutdown screwed that up, I think.
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Post by westernalj on Aug 16, 2014 9:19:40 GMT -5
Do you travel on the weekends? Or are the first Monday and last Friday travel days? Just curious!
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Post by hopefalj on Aug 16, 2014 9:25:29 GMT -5
I believe you'll head out on Sunday. I think the last Friday of training may run it a little close to getting out of DC, but that depends on your station. If you can't make it out in time that Friday, you'll get an extra night in Falls Church and leave the next morning. Any weekend travel during the training is on your own schedule.
Of course, I'm basing this off my AA training from long ago, so it could very well be different. Not sure if ALJs get travel comp time, but I assume so.
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