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Post by redryder on Aug 20, 2014 12:20:06 GMT -5
I have no inside intelligence but I have reason to believe that the reference to small hires in 2015 means small hires. There has not been this giant exodus of ALJs that many thought would happen at the beginning of 2014. And you have to realize with the hiring that has been done since 2007, the ALJ corps is younger. These classes are not like those hired in the 90's with WWII and Korea vets,and folks who had already reached age 65 and were coming back to work. The attrition just isn't there.
And there is the size of the present corps. The stats that are available show 1400+ judges on duty as of right now. The number of judges on duty is not an accurate count because certain positions do not count as full duty judges. A HOCALJ counts as partial on-duty because part of his time is taken up with administrative/management matters. But even assuming we have no more than 1400 warm bodies, with the addition of the new hires, the corp is up to 1470. I don't know what the maximum is, but don't believe it has ever been maintained at much over 1600 or another 130 slots.
And finally there are the costs of hiring/training new judges. There is a budget for this, but it isn't unlimited. Nor is there any reason to believe there is a one-time allocation in addition to the regular budget. To keep hiring, ODAR has to make sure it has money in the budget for that.
There have been a lot of changes since the reopening of hiring in 2007. You are foolish to look at the past hires to gauge the future activity. The last hire suggests to me that, if anything, the process will be one of regular hiring but smaller classes (under 100 per fiscal year).
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Post by luckylady2 on Aug 20, 2014 13:10:27 GMT -5
Hi all. Been swamped with job change and pressing family issues lately and haven't had time to post much. Here's a funny bit of insight. While I am sure the selection committee looked at everything and undoubtedly knew of my insider status, that knowledge didn't extend very far. When I spoke to Bob after my emailed offer, he was surprised to find out I was an insider. What's more, I received all of the "onboarding" info about insurance options and what not, I called the HR contact and advised I just wanted to keep what I had. They, like Bob, were surprised to find out I was already with ssa. Said I wasn't on the list. Once added, I got to disregard much of the paperwork. Now....this is my theory on the first and second cert interplay. I stress it is a theory. I think they reached for who they wanted. Once they had reached 70 they still had others they wanted, but couldn't reach without taking some unwanteds. I think they then went ahead and sent opm the list of hires and three struck and requested the second cert. This would allow them to get a look at where the left over wanteds from the first fell on the second. They had already asked for the staffing numbers and office space info. So they knew, less some taken by transfers, what offices they were wanting in the second. So, they go ahead and get the second. With that in hand, they would be able to tell if reaching the other first cert wanteds would require maneuvering on the first or if they would be easier to get on the second. So I think they already have the second. If, after looking at it and gameplanning they want to add some cities or names, they can always supplement. That said, I think you will see them play with it thru September and notices will finally go out after October 1. Interviews the first two weeks of November. I think you will see hiring around 120 with some wanteds from the second being pushed to a third cert next spring just as some from the first were pushed to the second. I've been told this next hire will be broken into three or four start/training groups. So that could account for the "smaller classes" remark in the union newsletter. I agree with sratty, ht and others. Remain calm, it is a great time to be on the reg. If even half of the aspirational hiring goals I have heard bandied about come to budgetary reality....everyone on the reg will get a shot to interview. Good luck everybody. Thanks for dropping in, Funky - as always we appreciate your insights. I love that after all of the vetting and reference checking and background checking, they didn't realize, Hey, this guy works for SSA! Wow! and at ODAR! And then on top of that, your own HR people (you know, the guys that help verify that you were at work, took x hours of leave when, etc so that you can be paid properly) - didn't know, either. I think you must be the Stealth Employee of the Year!
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Post by gary on Aug 20, 2014 13:28:12 GMT -5
Hi all. Been swamped with job change and pressing family issues lately and haven't had time to post much. Here's a funny bit of insight. While I am sure the selection committee looked at everything and undoubtedly knew of my insider status, that knowledge didn't extend very far. When I spoke to Bob after my emailed offer, he was surprised to find out I was an insider. What's more, I received all of the "onboarding" info about insurance options and what not, I called the HR contact and advised I just wanted to keep what I had. They, like Bob, were surprised to find out I was already with ssa. Said I wasn't on the list. Once added, I got to disregard much of the paperwork. Now....this is my theory on the first and second cert interplay. I stress it is a theory. I think they reached for who they wanted. Once they had reached 70 they still had others they wanted, but couldn't reach without taking some unwanteds. I think they then went ahead and sent opm the list of hires and three struck and requested the second cert. This would allow them to get a look at where the left over wanteds from the first fell on the second. They had already asked for the staffing numbers and office space info. So they knew, less some taken by transfers, what offices they were wanting in the second. So, they go ahead and get the second. With that in hand, they would be able to tell if reaching the other first cert wanteds would require maneuvering on the first or if they would be easier to get on the second. So I think they already have the second. If, after looking at it and gameplanning they want to add some cities or names, they can always supplement. That said, I think you will see them play with it thru September and notices will finally go out after October 1. Interviews the first two weeks of November. I think you will see hiring around 120 with some wanteds from the second being pushed to a third cert next spring just as some from the first were pushed to the second. I've been told this next hire will be broken into three or four start/training groups. So that could account for the "smaller classes" remark in the union newsletter. I agree with sratty, ht and others. Remain calm, it is a great time to be on the reg. If even half of the aspirational hiring goals I have heard bandied about come to budgetary reality....everyone on the reg will get a shot to interview. Good luck everybody. Thanks for dropping in, Funky - as always we appreciate your insights. I love that after all of the vetting and reference checking and background checking, they didn't realize, Hey, this guy works for SSA! Wow! and at ODAR! And then on top of that, your own HR people (you know, the guys that help verify that you were at work, took x hours of leave when, etc so that you can be paid properly) - didn't know, either. I think you must be the Stealth Employee of the Year! This raises the age-old philosophical question: if three people are at work and Funky walks in, are there still only three people at work?
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Post by JudgeRatty on Aug 20, 2014 14:14:40 GMT -5
I have no inside intelligence but I have reason to believe that the reference to small hires in 2015 means small hires. There has not been this giant exodus of ALJs that many thought would happen at the beginning of 2014. And you have to realize with the hiring that has been done since 2007, the ALJ corps is younger. These classes are not like those hired in the 90's with WWII and Korea vets,and folks who had already reached age 65 and were coming back to work. The attrition just isn't there. And there is the size of the present corps. The stats that are available show 1400+ judges on duty as of right now. The number of judges on duty is not an accurate count because certain positions do not count as full duty judges. A HOCALJ counts as partial on-duty because part of his time is taken up with administrative/management matters. But even assuming we have no more than 1400 warm bodies, with the addition of the new hires, the corp is up to 1470. I don't know what the maximum is, but don't believe it has ever been maintained at much over 1600 or another 130 slots. And finally there are the costs of hiring/training new judges. There is a budget for this, but it isn't unlimited. Nor is there any reason to believe there is a one-time allocation in addition to the regular budget. To keep hiring, ODAR has to make sure it has money in the budget for that. There have been a lot of changes since the reopening of hiring in 2007. You are foolish to look at the past hires to gauge the future activity. The last hire suggests to me that, if anything, the process will be one of regular hiring but smaller classes (under 100 per fiscal year). Except that Deputy Commissioner Sklar has said every single management meeting that ALJ hiring is going to be "aggressive" (his words not mine) and the goal is 200 by the calendar year end and more in 2015. Now, could that change.... sure. But I have not heard anything to the contrary yet. Until I do, I remain optimistic the plan is the same and we will see another 130 (whether smaller groups or not) as the next target.
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Post by gary on Aug 20, 2014 14:19:43 GMT -5
Hi all. Been swamped with job change and pressing family issues lately and haven't had time to post much. Here's a funny bit of insight. While I am sure the selection committee looked at everything and undoubtedly knew of my insider status, that knowledge didn't extend very far. When I spoke to Bob after my emailed offer, he was surprised to find out I was an insider. What's more, I received all of the "onboarding" info about insurance options and what not, I called the HR contact and advised I just wanted to keep what I had. They, like Bob, were surprised to find out I was already with ssa. Said I wasn't on the list. Once added, I got to disregard much of the paperwork. Now....this is my theory on the first and second cert interplay. I stress it is a theory. I think they reached for who they wanted. Once they had reached 70 they still had others they wanted, but couldn't reach without taking some unwanteds. I think they then went ahead and sent opm the list of hires and three struck and requested the second cert. This would allow them to get a look at where the left over wanteds from the first fell on the second. They had already asked for the staffing numbers and office space info. So they knew, less some taken by transfers, what offices they were wanting in the second. So, they go ahead and get the second. With that in hand, they would be able to tell if reaching the other first cert wanteds would require maneuvering on the first or if they would be easier to get on the second. So I think they already have the second. If, after looking at it and gameplanning they want to add some cities or names, they can always supplement. That said, I think you will see them play with it thru September and notices will finally go out after October 1. Interviews the first two weeks of November. I think you will see hiring around 120 with some wanteds from the second being pushed to a third cert next spring just as some from the first were pushed to the second. I've been told this next hire will be broken into three or four start/training groups. So that could account for the "smaller classes" remark in the union newsletter. I agree with sratty, ht and others. Remain calm, it is a great time to be on the reg. If even half of the aspirational hiring goals I have heard bandied about come to budgetary reality....everyone on the reg will get a shot to interview. Good luck everybody. How'd you manage that? Based on your footprint on this Board, I would have thought you'd be a hard employee to overlook.
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Post by JudgeRatty on Aug 20, 2014 14:26:44 GMT -5
Hi all. Been swamped with job change and pressing family issues lately and haven't had time to post much. Here's a funny bit of insight. While I am sure the selection committee looked at everything and undoubtedly knew of my insider status, that knowledge didn't extend very far. When I spoke to Bob after my emailed offer, he was surprised to find out I was an insider. What's more, I received all of the "onboarding" info about insurance options and what not, I called the HR contact and advised I just wanted to keep what I had. They, like Bob, were surprised to find out I was already with ssa. Said I wasn't on the list. Once added, I got to disregard much of the paperwork. Now....this is my theory on the first and second cert interplay. I stress it is a theory. I think they reached for who they wanted. Once they had reached 70 they still had others they wanted, but couldn't reach without taking some unwanteds. I think they then went ahead and sent opm the list of hires and three struck and requested the second cert. This would allow them to get a look at where the left over wanteds from the first fell on the second. They had already asked for the staffing numbers and office space info. So they knew, less some taken by transfers, what offices they were wanting in the second. So, they go ahead and get the second. With that in hand, they would be able to tell if reaching the other first cert wanteds would require maneuvering on the first or if they would be easier to get on the second. So I think they already have the second. If, after looking at it and gameplanning they want to add some cities or names, they can always supplement. That said, I think you will see them play with it thru September and notices will finally go out after October 1. Interviews the first two weeks of November. I think you will see hiring around 120 with some wanteds from the second being pushed to a third cert next spring just as some from the first were pushed to the second. I've been told this next hire will be broken into three or four start/training groups. So that could account for the "smaller classes" remark in the union newsletter. I agree with sratty, ht and others. Remain calm, it is a great time to be on the reg. If even half of the aspirational hiring goals I have heard bandied about come to budgetary reality....everyone on the reg will get a shot to interview. Good luck everybody. How'd you manage that? Based on your footprint on this Board, I would have thought you'd be a hard employee to overlook. Funky went in stealth... You see, he was wearing shades and a hat and no one connected the purple velvet jacket to the Funkster.
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Post by gary on Aug 20, 2014 14:30:02 GMT -5
How'd you manage that? Based on your footprint on this Board, I would have thought you'd be a hard employee to overlook. Funky went in stealth... You see, he was wearing shades and a hat and no one connected the purple velvet jacket to the Funkster. You had me scared for a moment. I thought maybe the hat was a sombrero and instead of a jacket he wore a serape.
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Post by saaao on Aug 20, 2014 15:42:56 GMT -5
I have no inside intelligence but I have reason to believe that the reference to small hires in 2015 means small hires. There has not been this giant exodus of ALJs that many thought would happen at the beginning of 2014. And you have to realize with the hiring that has been done since 2007, the ALJ corps is younger. These classes are not like those hired in the 90's with WWII and Korea vets,and folks who had already reached age 65 and were coming back to work. The attrition just isn't there. And there is the size of the present corps. The stats that are available show 1400+ judges on duty as of right now. The number of judges on duty is not an accurate count because certain positions do not count as full duty judges. A HOCALJ counts as partial on-duty because part of his time is taken up with administrative/management matters. But even assuming we have no more than 1400 warm bodies, with the addition of the new hires, the corp is up to 1470. I don't know what the maximum is, but don't believe it has ever been maintained at much over 1600 or another 130 slots. And finally there are the costs of hiring/training new judges. There is a budget for this, but it isn't unlimited. Nor is there any reason to believe there is a one-time allocation in addition to the regular budget. To keep hiring, ODAR has to make sure it has money in the budget for that. There have been a lot of changes since the reopening of hiring in 2007. You are foolish to look at the past hires to gauge the future activity. The last hire suggests to me that, if anything, the process will be one of regular hiring but smaller classes (under 100 per fiscal year). Except that Deputy Commissioner Sklar has said every single management meeting that ALJ hiring is going to be "aggressive" (his words not mine) and the goal is 200 by the calendar year end and more in 2015. Now, could that change.... sure. But I have not heard anything to the contrary yet. Until I do, I remain optimistic the plan is the same and we will see another 130 (whether smaller groups or not) as the next target. I thought the 1400 figure was old. I seem to remember seeing somewhere (I want to say in a commissioner's report to congress but I can't be sure) that current ALJ staffing was in the ~1250 range.
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Post by Missundaztood on Aug 20, 2014 15:47:26 GMT -5
The cert email from Bob had 1400, FWIW.
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Post by JudgeRatty on Aug 20, 2014 16:02:30 GMT -5
In June 2014, Carolyn Colvin testified and stated the plan was to bring the corps to 1500. www.ssa.gov/legislation/testimony_061114.htmlIn July 2014, Marianna Lacanfora testified there were currently about 1400 ALJs. www.ssa.gov/legislation/testimony_072414.htmlTaking into account continuing attrition, the hiring of 200 makes sense. And as I continue to say, that 200 number is from Sklar and has not changed in the past several months. I am sure if this does change, someone will post it.
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Post by gary on Aug 20, 2014 16:12:58 GMT -5
In June 2014, Carolyn Colvin testified and stated the plan was to bring the corps to 1500. www.ssa.gov/legislation/testimony_061114.htmlIn July 2014, Marianna Lacanfora testified there were currently about 1400 ALJs. www.ssa.gov/legislation/testimony_072414.htmlTaking into account continuing attrition, the hiring of 200 makes sense. And as I continue to say, that 200 number is from Sklar and has not changed in the past several months. I am sure if this does change, someone will post it. This is the 1st and 2nd cert speculation thread. It is no place for facts and logic.
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Post by JudgeRatty on Aug 20, 2014 16:14:55 GMT -5
In June 2014, Carolyn Colvin testified and stated the plan was to bring the corps to 1500. www.ssa.gov/legislation/testimony_061114.htmlIn July 2014, Marianna Lacanfora testified there were currently about 1400 ALJs. www.ssa.gov/legislation/testimony_072414.htmlTaking into account continuing attrition, the hiring of 200 makes sense. And as I continue to say, that 200 number is from Sklar and has not changed in the past several months. I am sure if this does change, someone will post it. This is the 1st and 2nd cert speculation thread. It is no place for facts and logic. Dangit! LOL!
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Post by ok1956 on Aug 20, 2014 16:48:11 GMT -5
This is the 1st and 2nd cert speculation thread. It is no place for facts and logic. Dangit! LOL! What were you thinking?!?!? LOL
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Post by JudgeRatty on Aug 20, 2014 17:07:36 GMT -5
What were you thinking?!?!? LOL Unintended consequence of LBMT? LOL!
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Post by redryder on Aug 20, 2014 18:19:11 GMT -5
My source for the current size of the ALJ corps is the consolidated activity report ODAR has in its in-house tracking program for case management (CPMS). Per the comparison of the last fiscal year and the size thru July, the number dropped from 1485 to 1413. Again, this number is based on duty status and not all judges count for one. The actual number is higher. These numbers suggest the current hire will cover the loss through retirement/separation. But it does not appear to cover sustained hiring of 200 per year if the optimal corps size is 1500. The bottom line is that the current situation does not support speculation for big hires like the agency experienced between 2007 and 2010. However, barring any changes in the testing process by OPM, any agency should be able to ask for a cert any time it wants to hire. So I stand by my speculation for annual hiring but in small numbers for the next several years.
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Post by prescient on Aug 20, 2014 19:10:14 GMT -5
Also, when examining the backlog, look where the bottlenecks are. Hint. Case workup is by FAR the most massive bottleneck. You can hire 1000 aljs and it's not going to make a dent without more hiring on the front end. Which isn't happening ATM. I've been cautioning the 200 hire isn't happening for awhile. I guess we will find out soon what the plan is.
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Post by JudgeRatty on Aug 20, 2014 19:19:16 GMT -5
Also, when examining the backlog, look where the bottlenecks are. Hint. Case workup is by FAR the most massive bottleneck. You can hire 1000 aljs and it's not going to make a dent without more hiring on the front end. Which isn't happening ATM. I've been cautioning the 200 hire isn't happening for awhile. I guess we will find out soon what the plan is. I agree the staffing needs to be there but why would Sklar repeatedly say 200 if he did not mean 200? Not trying to be argumentative but I am just taking him at his word. Maybe that was just a goal but he keeps repeating it and every management meeting results in the same message of aggressive hiring to get ahead of the attrition. The plan seems to be toward national case assistance centers to do work up and writing and they have been hiring there. Local hiring for staff has not been a focus due to the national case assistance focus. So it may not seem the staff is not there but it is on a different level.
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Post by moopigsdad on Aug 20, 2014 20:10:54 GMT -5
When the talk is about hiring 200 ALJs more than once or twice, it has to mean something. I think SSA was just not prepared to deal with OPM's changes in cert process and it caught them off guard and led to less hiring than expected. I think the second cert will have SSA more prepared to deal with OPM's changes and allow it to hire more freely than cert number one did.
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Post by redryder on Aug 21, 2014 8:07:59 GMT -5
The Rule of 3 is not a change in the hiring process. That has always been the procedure. No agency has to hire one of the top three, but it has to be able to defend its decision to pass them over. But there is a new wrinkle in the process that could be resulting in major slowdowns.
If you read the MSPB decision in the O'Leary case, you will see that one of his assertions is that the same person/decision-maker did not consider him three times for a position in the same round of hiring. The decision suggests that the Chief ALJ had delegated some of the hiring authority to others to assist in the process--which makes some sense given the sheer number of candidates involved. However O'Leary raised legitimate issues regarding the application of the 3 strikes provision. If ODAR can only have one person making the decision on who gets the offer, that person has to be vetted on each and every applicant,and prepare any justifications for passing over candidates.
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Post by orchid on Aug 21, 2014 8:48:00 GMT -5
If we accept that the first hiring was smaller than anticipated at least in part because of how long the offer/acceptances took. Doesn't it follow that ODAR will attempt to give itself more lead time on the next hiring? Does anybody have information on when interviews will be other than the previously mentioned "November"? Bump!
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