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Post by beenlurking on Nov 4, 2014 13:17:14 GMT -5
I'm sure there is a number in a thread somewhere but does someone have the latest projection information? From what I can find the last projection was somewhere around 200 by end of fiscal year 2015. Thanks!
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Post by JudgeRatty on Nov 4, 2014 14:18:46 GMT -5
I'm sure there is a number in a thread somewhere but does someone have the latest projection information? From what I can find the last projection was somewhere around 200 by end of fiscal year 2015. Thanks! That was the last I heard.
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Post by orchid on Nov 4, 2014 14:25:28 GMT -5
I know it's only been a day since the cert came out, but when do we think offers will start rolling out? With many at end of year/ use or lose status, how much lead time do we think we will get before we are (hopefully) asked to report to our new post of duty?
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Post by beenlurking on Nov 4, 2014 14:35:55 GMT -5
Thanks Sratty!
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Post by hopefalj on Nov 4, 2014 14:36:13 GMT -5
My uneducated guess would be starting on 12/1 and ending when they hit their targeted number for the January class. I know your next question, and no, I don't know what the target is. If it's a small class of 25-30, it should get wrapped up before Christmas even with some folks taking 24 hours to decide.
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Post by 71stretch on Nov 4, 2014 14:42:42 GMT -5
Start date for January is 1/25. They are going to need to get the choosing done and the calls made before Bob and the others head off for the holidays. I'll take a WAG that offers/hires will be done by Friday 12/19, having started them around 12/9.
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Post by orchid on Nov 4, 2014 14:49:41 GMT -5
Start date for January is 1/25. They are going to need to get the choosing done and the calls made before Bob and the others head off for the holidays. I'll take a WAG that offers/hires will be done by Friday 12/19. having started them around 12/9. An offer would definitely be on my list from Santa!
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Post by gary on Nov 4, 2014 15:02:59 GMT -5
Start date for January is 1/25. They are going to need to get the choosing done and the calls made before Bob and the others head off for the holidays. I'll take a WAG that offers/hires will be done by Friday 12/19. having started them around 12/9. An offer would definitely be on my list from Santa! An offer would be my entire list for Santa Bob.
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Post by HallmarkFan on Nov 4, 2014 16:49:40 GMT -5
An offer would definitely be on my list from Santa! An offer would be my entire list for Santa Bob. Totally agree. Talk about an amazing start of a new year.
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Post by Gaidin on Nov 4, 2014 16:50:32 GMT -5
An offer would definitely be on my list from Santa! An offer would be my entire list for Santa Bob. Seriously, that will make the G family Christmas. Unless I get Lawrence in which case a warm bullet proof coat would be nice as well.
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Post by carrickfergus on Nov 5, 2014 11:51:52 GMT -5
The DC recently reported that 70 new ALJs have been hired, and that they "hope to hire 130 more soon."
(Edit: w/the recent election results, my guess is that there will be a little extra urgency to expedite the hiring process as much as possible.)
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Post by Ace Midnight on Nov 5, 2014 12:06:16 GMT -5
The number 200 total tends to persist. That would leave a balance of 130 or so. If we hit, roughly, 25 for January, a balance of 100 would be - that is consistent with "hiring throughout 2015" because that might be as many as 4 additional small classes - and certainly 2 larger classes - consistent with the earlier of the 2 2014 classes and implies at least 1, if not 2 additional rounds of interviews in 2015.
I agree that offers might go out as early as December 1st - and continue as long as necessary. With a projected number of 25 (again - any intel to move us off that would be appreciated) - and the pivot to a 24-hour time frame - that could be done in a week, 10 days, perhaps.
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Post by Gaidin on Nov 6, 2014 10:49:21 GMT -5
If we accept that 200 is accurate and until new evidence comes to light I do then the question of the moment is how many are they trying to hire with the certs released this week. There were 168 people invited to interview for the first set of certs which was initially for 90 ALJs. That round of certs was for 45 cities. They ended up only hiring 70. That leaves 130 ALJ positions to fill before the end of fiscal year 2015 (September 30). There are 115 votes in the score poll right now. There are 34 cities currently reported for this round of interviews. There were only 81 votes in the score poll that was generated for the 1st cert. We have certainly seen a huge uptick in voting since then but.... aljdiscussion.proboards.com/post/54725/threadIf it was 34 ALJ positions then they would only need to interview 63 candidates to get the same ratio of candidates this time around. (168:90). If 115 is every person who received an invite to the 2nd cert (almost an impossibility) then they are interviewing for 63 positions. I suspect that this November cert is for another 70 - 90 positions. They might not hire that many but that is my current belief based upon the limited information I have available today. I would welcome anyone who wants to point out my mistakes or who has an alternate theory.
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Post by moopigsdad on Nov 6, 2014 11:17:07 GMT -5
I don't necessarily think you are wrong Gaidin, but I would not be surprised if the hiring stopped well short of your projections just as the first cert fell short on hires too. I think SSA wants the opportunity to interview as many people as it can and to be able to use some of those interviewed for future certs with perhaps not needing to interview so many candidates in the future. Plus it allows them to see more choices for positions and to be pickier in their choices.
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Post by Gaidin on Nov 6, 2014 11:25:43 GMT -5
I don't necessarily think you are wrong Gaidin, but I would not be surprised if the hiring stopped well short of your projections just as the first cert fell short on hires too. I think SSA wants the opportunity to interview as many people as it can and to be able to use some of those interviewed for future certs with perhaps not needing to interview so many candidates in the future. Plus it allows them to see more choices for positions and to be pickier in their choices. I believe this all to be true particularly the emphasized portion.
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Post by Ace Midnight on Nov 6, 2014 12:09:15 GMT -5
If 115 is every person who received an invite to the 2nd cert (almost an impossibility) then they are interviewing for 63 positions. I suspect that this November cert is for another 70 - 90 positions. They might not hire that many but that is my current belief based upon the limited information I have available today. I would welcome anyone who wants to point out my mistakes or who has an alternate theory. So many numbers. I had to drag out a fresh Big Chief tablet for this round. Your "70 to 90" didn't have to go any further than this: 25 + 45=70 45+45=90 They would have to average 2+ candidates per city for 34 cities to hit 70 - but, I assume if they got 24 in the first class and 44 in the second class, they would consider that a win. The numbers will continue to be driven by the logistics of the training class size. However, that is tempered by the fact they are willing to go with a half class if necessary.
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Post by floss on Nov 6, 2014 16:09:36 GMT -5
With the second cert numbers included, what is the total number of individuals that will be seen by interviewers at the completion of the second cert? Also, how many people are left on the register (percentage) yet to be interviewed?
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Post by moopigsdad on Nov 6, 2014 16:19:38 GMT -5
With the second cert numbers included, what is the total number of individuals that will be seen by interviewers at the completion of the second cert? Also, how many people are left on the register (percentage) yet to be interviewed? Floss unless you want someone to guess answers to your questions, there is no exact answer yet. We do not have the total numbers to be interviewed this time yet, nor do we know nor may we ever know the total number of people on the OPM Register. Everything at this point would be nothing but a somewhat uneducated guess based upon some polls, which may or may not be accurate. Sorry we are likely not to be more informed about this cert until sometime next week. Stay tuned!
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Post by Gaidin on Nov 6, 2014 16:22:20 GMT -5
The first question is unknowable until we get better intel on how many people are on the cert. Right now based upon the votes in the polls 70.91% of all people on cert 2 need to be interviewed for the 2nd set of certs. I think more than the 117 people who have voted in the score poll are on the cert but if you accept that as the base line then at least 83 people still need to be interviewed from cert 2.
168 people were reportedly interviewed in Cert 1. 168 + 83 = 251
The general belief is that the overall register is about 800 - 900 people. Using 900 as a conservative estimate.
900 - 251 = 649 who will still need to be interviewed for future certs to exhaust the register.
Realistically, many people will never get interviewed because their GAL/NOR combination will never come up. If your NOR is 100 but your GAL consists of Honolulu your ticket will most likely never get punched. If your NOR is low 50's and you have a small GAL of non-Crapland cities your ticket will also likely go unused. There is a fair amount of polling data as well as anecdotal evidence that shows that a huge percentage of GALs are narrow.
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Post by Gaidin on Nov 6, 2014 16:23:19 GMT -5
Technically, Moo is right but I like to guess.
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