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Post by Gaidin on Oct 6, 2015 10:26:10 GMT -5
I have some basis to believe that a class will start January 25. I will be absolutely stunned if a class starts before then. I just don't imagine that is possible.
Therefore, I believe it is time to start SWAGing.
I think for purposes of this discussion we should assume that the government does not get shut down. If there is a shut down the permutations are so varied that it makes even wild guesses worthless.
January 25 - Start Date
December 23 - Last day of offers (4 weeks before the start date is actually December 28 but I don't see them planning on working that day just to finish offers)
December 14 - First day of offers (just because)
Week of November 30 - hiring committee
Week of November 16 - interviews
Week of October 26 - Cert emails
My SWAGiest of SWAGs is that they don't cert many more cities and that the current certs are simply updated. That will add a few people because of hires but they won't have to interview many more people and that saves time. They presumably have openings still in all of those offices.
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Post by beenlurking on Oct 6, 2015 10:41:06 GMT -5
Thanks Gaidin. I was wondering and your last paragraph seems to make a lot of sense.
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Post by christina on Oct 6, 2015 10:54:57 GMT -5
i don't see calls going to the 23rd but otherwise agree with your SWAGS!
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Post by gary on Oct 6, 2015 11:10:03 GMT -5
I think your timeline makes sense, G. It's basically last year's schedule.
The difference I see is that they interviewed into the first week of December, and I believe they added a few hires at the end of December last year.
I like your SWAG. I think they may be adding candidates who tested (successfully) in August/September to the register sometime this month. I think OPM may be able to add them to any appropriate open certs so that probably would not of itself necessitate recerting every location, but I'm not sure.
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Post by robespierre on Oct 6, 2015 14:09:19 GMT -5
Thanks Gaidin, I think you're on the right track. This next set of certs is crucial, because after this one, probably the Oct.-Dec. test-takers come onto the register, plus GALs possibly expand, and it will be harder than ever to get this job. That's why I call the next set the "LHOOS" certs. heh
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Post by Ready-Now! on Oct 6, 2015 14:19:37 GMT -5
Here's hoping the Oct-Dec test takers come onto the scene asap! Sorry Robes...
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Post by phoenixrakkasan on Oct 6, 2015 14:50:10 GMT -5
There is no chance in my opinion. OPM is not readynow to finish all the grading. Expect March or April 2016. Enjoy your December and avoid the SD status.
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Post by litig8tor on Oct 6, 2015 16:03:06 GMT -5
There is no chance in my opinion. OPM is not readynow to finish all the grading. Expect March or April 2016. Enjoy your December and avoid the SD status. I believe that phoenixrakkadan is probably correct that the groups now testing in DC will not receive their NORs until all testing and grading is finished. According to the original announcement as well as the explanatory email received with the original group of NORs, your score is in fact a determination of your position relative to all others qualifying for the register. I don't see how OPM could assign any further "relative" NORs until all results are known for all persons in the overall pool.
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Post by Ready-Now! on Oct 6, 2015 16:04:14 GMT -5
I did use the word hope...
"Better hope deferred than none."- SAMUEL BECKETT
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Post by Gaidin on Oct 6, 2015 16:19:59 GMT -5
There is no chance in my opinion. OPM is not readynow to finish all the grading. Expect March or April 2016. Enjoy your December and avoid the SD status. I believe that phoenixrakkadan is probably correct that the groups now testing in DC will not receive their NORs until all testing and grading is finished. According to the original announcement as well as the explanatory email received with the original group of NORs, your score is in fact a determination of your position relative to all others qualifying for the register. I don't see how OPM could assign any further "relative" NORs until all results are known for all persons in the overall pool. While I agree that those testing now won't get results until next year, I don't think its because of this reason. People are constantly being placed on the register in the form of 10 pt vets and now successful appeals. I'm not sure how the we are placed relative to each other but I do not believe that there can only be one person out there with a specific score. There was a lot of speculation when the NORs first came out. Instead I just think it will take a long time to score all the tests. If there are a thousand people testing that will take time to grade. Probably, nearly as long as the original batch of testing took in 2013. The folks who tested in August though may be pretty close to getting their scores. I don't know whether I believe they will come out before certs for a potential January 2016 hire.
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Post by keepsake on Oct 6, 2015 16:20:25 GMT -5
As time goes by without a score from the August/September group, I become more inclined to think that we will get scores after all the current takers are finished. I give the odds about even to get a score during this month for the August/September group (given the few numbers who actually tested in this period) and failing that, I think that the odds of getting a score before the current testers becomes very long indeed and we August/Septemberers will get a score in the new year sometime. Hope I am wrong on this, but time will tell.
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Post by gary on Oct 6, 2015 16:34:32 GMT -5
There is no chance in my opinion. OPM is not readynow to finish all the grading. Expect March or April 2016. Enjoy your December and avoid the SD status. I believe that phoenixrakkadan is probably correct that the groups now testing in DC will not receive their NORs until all testing and grading is finished. According to the original announcement as well as the explanatory email received with the original group of NORs, your score is in fact a determination of your position relative to all others qualifying for the register. I don't see how OPM could assign any further "relative" NORs until all results are known for all persons in the overall pool. After they created the register, OPM has to score all subsequent test takers exactly the same way they scored the group originally put on the register. They do this whenever they test preference-eligibles, which can be as frequently as quarterly. They have to do it with the August/September test takers. And they have to do it with the group presently testing. OPM's MO has been to score the tests and release the results in groups. I expect the August/September group fairly soon and the current group in the March to May period.
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Post by beenlurking on Oct 6, 2015 17:15:43 GMT -5
I am confused (surprise). Are the August/September test takers and the current round of test takers all the same folks who were were re-scored on the 2nd phase and passed on to the DC phase?
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Post by christina on Oct 6, 2015 17:33:12 GMT -5
no is short answer to above question.
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Post by keepsake on Oct 6, 2015 17:59:12 GMT -5
There is no way to know for sure, but the August/September folks seemingly consisted of two groups - 1) successful appeals of earlier round(s) (or those who were deemed eligible to take the online component but did not for whatever reason) and 2) qualified vets.
The question as to whether these people were eligible to move onto DC for WD/LBMT pursuant to a lower threshold score is unanswered, but it is speculated that given: 1) the nature of their admission to DC in terms of timing (earlier than those currently testing) and 2) no ability to self-schedule, this group was different in some way than the group now testing. Take it FWIW, as there is no real definitive info on this as far as I can tell. Thus the speculation that this August/September group might get scored prior to current test takers.
An interesting data point would be hearing from someone who successfully appealed or who was asked if they were still interested in taking the online component and did so, but who is currently testing and was not given an August/September DC chance. That would perhaps answer this second question about this group from August/September. Many wheels move in this process and it is frankly hard to keep track of everything not knowing complete information.
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Post by pumpkin on Oct 6, 2015 18:32:57 GMT -5
I am confused (surprise). Are the August/September test takers and the current round of test takers all the same folks who were were re-scored on the 2nd phase and passed on to the DC phase? I, for one, am an August/September test-taker and was not "re-scored" at the 2nd phase. I never received the OPM e-mail back in 2013 notifying me that I had cleared the first hurdle and was invited to the online testing. I appealed and heard nothing for two years. Someone in my same circumstance filed an action before the MSPB and was successful in her litigation. (Thank you, D.Z.!) There are at least two others who tested with me in August/September in the same boat, all three of us with @aol.com e-mail addresses. Here is the timeline as it pertains to me: mid-May 2015 - received e-mail from OPM with a survey asking if I am still interested in participating in the online component. "Hell, yes," I think. I click on the "yes" radio button in the survey, update my e-mail to a non-AOL address and poof - it's gone. The survey being irretrievable, I spend the week convinced I accidentally selected the "no" button. A week later, I received an e-mail from OPM notifying me that my appeal has been resolved in my favor, and that I would be provided with the opportunity to take the three online component assessments of the 2013 ALJ examination. June 10, 2015 - received e-mail inviting me to take the SJT, writing sample and experience assessment, during the period of 6/22/15 through 7/6/15. July 4, 2015 - who needs fireworks when you have the SJT? I give the dog a peanut butter Kong and way too many Milk Bones to keep him complacent while I complete the online testing. August 6, 2015 - received congratulatory e-mail stating I met the criteria to proceed to the next phase of assessments in the ALJ examination process. The email states I will receive a separate scheduling notice informing me of the date time and location of the tests. August 12, 2015 - received two emails: the SI admission notice and the WD/LBMT admission notice. Be in DC the week of August 31 - September 4, I am told. I print the e-mails, buy my plane tickets, make my hotel reservations, and go talk to my supervisor to let him know why I will be requesting vacation time during that week. August 31-September 4, 2015 - I complete the WD/LBMT and SI on two consecutive days, and sign multiple documents agreeing that if I breathe a word about the testing process, OPM can sell my secrets to the Chinese. September 4, 2015 - present - crickets. We do not know if OPM will grade the WD/LBMT and SI for our small group or will lump us in with the (seemingly larger) group who self-scheduled to come to DC in October - December. Of course I'm hopeful we will receive our NORs before the self-schedulers, but who really knows? I alternate between worrying that I failed to meet the minimum score on the WD and checking the ALJ discussion board to see if anyone has posted that they received their NOR. And if if I get the "thanks for playing but your NOR is zero" e-mail, I'm going to start a new business venture subletting apartments with 90-day lease terms and free WiFi in Mt. Pleasant and Cincinnati. Look for my banner ads on these boards.
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Post by wingnut on Oct 6, 2015 19:00:56 GMT -5
Pumkin, you are funny as heck.
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Post by Gaidin on Oct 6, 2015 20:29:24 GMT -5
I am confused (surprise). Are the August/September test takers and the current round of test takers all the same folks who were were re-scored on the 2nd phase and passed on to the DC phase? I, for one, am an August/September test-taker and was not "re-scored" at the 2nd phase. I never received the OPM e-mail back in 2013 notifying me that I had cleared the first hurdle and was invited to the online testing. I appealed and heard nothing for two years. Someone in my same circumstance filed an action before the MSPB and was successful in her litigation. (Thank you, D.Z.!) There are at least two others who tested with me in August/September in the same boat, all three of us with @aol.com e-mail addresses. Here is the timeline as it pertains to me: mid-May 2015 - received e-mail from OPM with a survey asking if I am still interested in participating in the online component. "Hell, yes," I think. I click on the "yes" radio button in the survey, update my e-mail to a non-AOL address and poof - it's gone. The survey being irretrievable, I spend the week convinced I accidentally selected the "no" button. A week later, I received an e-mail from OPM notifying me that my appeal has been resolved in my favor, and that I would be provided with the opportunity to take the three online component assessments of the 2013 ALJ examination. June 10, 2015 - received e-mail inviting me to take the SJT, writing sample and experience assessment, during the period of 6/22/15 through 7/6/15. July 4, 2015 - who needs fireworks when you have the SJT? I give the dog a peanut butter Kong and way too many Milk Bones to keep him complacent while I complete the online testing. August 6, 2015 - received congratulatory e-mail stating I met the criteria to proceed to the next phase of assessments in the ALJ examination process. The email states I will receive a separate scheduling notice informing me of the date time and location of the tests. August 12, 2015 - received two emails: the SI admission notice and the WD/LBMT admission notice. Be in DC the week of August 31 - September 4, I am told. I print the e-mails, buy my plane tickets, make my hotel reservations, and go talk to my supervisor to let him know why I will be requesting vacation time during that week. August 31-September 4, 2015 - I complete the WD/LBMT and SI on two consecutive days, and sign multiple documents agreeing that if I breathe a word about the testing process, OPM can sell my secrets to the Chinese. September 4, 2015 - present - crickets. We do not know if OPM will grade the WD/LBMT and SI for our small group or will lump us in with the (seemingly larger) group who self-scheduled to come to DC in October - December. Of course I'm hopeful we will receive our NORs before the self-schedulers, but who really knows? I alternate between worrying that I failed to meet the minimum score on the WD and checking the ALJ discussion board to see if anyone has posted that they received their NOR. And if if I get the "thanks for playing but your NOR is zero" e-mail, I'm going to start a new business venture subletting apartments with 90-day lease terms and free WiFi in Mt. Pleasant and Cincinnati. Look for my banner ads on these boards. If I am lucky enough to go to FC when you get hired I'm going to buy the first round because you're funny as heck.
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Post by pumpkin on Oct 7, 2015 9:53:21 GMT -5
Thanks Gaidin - I would consider myself doubly lucky to be at FC with you! I vote for a first night of FC class fireside chat at a local establishment which serves situational bourbon and will let us use G's playlist for the evening's musical ambience.
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Post by sealaw90 on Oct 7, 2015 10:59:41 GMT -5
Thanks Gaidin - I would consider myself doubly lucky to be at FC with you! I vote for a first night of FC class fireside chat at a local establishment which serves situational bourbon and will let us use G's playlist for the evening's musical ambience. I'm so there with Pumpkin and Gaidin, right Bob? (even though he doesn't read this board)
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