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Post by hopefalj on Feb 12, 2016 8:20:04 GMT -5
Oh, okay. I was thinking the first hires from the 2013 announcement started in August 2014. I'm still learning this board and the application process, though. Maybe what I saw was for something else. Don't take mine as gospel, there might have been some hires earlier. But I would doubt 8/14, since that was right after everyone I knew went for the SI/WD in July 2014. I did not get a proper rejection letter until March of 2014. It was actually July 2014 that offers for the August class started rolling out. There were 70-something hired in FY2014. aljdiscussion.proboards.com/thread/2650/ssa-first-cert-offers-2014
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Post by Lawesome on Feb 12, 2016 8:38:52 GMT -5
I unfortunately missed the last announcement by a few months of experience. To give you a mental picture of my outlook right now, picture Lloyd from "Dumb and Dumber." So you're telling me there's a chance....
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Post by valkyrie on Feb 12, 2016 9:36:23 GMT -5
In looking at the timelines for the previous announcements, wouldn't new applicants have a shot at 2017 or 2018 hires (assuming the application opens by April 1st)? I would not completely rule it out for them. Especially in light of the fact that the participants of the conference call were told to encourage people to apply. I realize SSA does not create the register, but it could be seen as an encouraging sign for new applicants. Remember, I'm new here, so feel free to correct me. We're almost 1/2 way through FY 16. The earliest that I know of anyone getting picked up from the March 2013 opening was March 2015. So maybe, arguably, the tail end 2018 maybe influenced by the refresh. Really why call it a refresh at that point, as everyone left with any open GAL will have been passed over many times. So maybe. But more than likely, to the extent these goals are met, they will have completely exhausted the 013 register, more so than any post 07 register. if they actually get 1900 ALJs, almost all of them will be less than 10-15 years into their life tenure, and attrition will be non-existent. And no more baby boomers to justify the numbers. All of which to say, if you aren't on now, don't expect any movement near this magnitude until 2030-35ish, probably later. 2013 was the year to get on for sure. basically if you have the 7 years now, your next best shot will be when you hit 55-60 ish. ALJ attrition at ODAR has been pretty consistent at 10% per year for as long as I can remember, which is why it has been so painful for the agency when OPM doesn't do any hiring. The ALJ classes hired within the past 10 years are historically younger than past classes. That said, there has still been a number of new ALJs hired in their 60s and 70s, and the younger ALJs are typically more open to quickly transferring to other agencies, or leaving the ALJ gig all together. I do not foresee that 10% number changing significantly any time soon, and until the backlog is gone, ODAR will continue to be motivated to hire new ALJs to replace the attrition.
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Post by christina on Feb 12, 2016 9:44:43 GMT -5
We're almost 1/2 way through FY 16. The earliest that I know of anyone getting picked up from the March 2013 opening was March 2015. So maybe, arguably, the tail end 2018 maybe influenced by the refresh. Really why call it a refresh at that point, as everyone left with any open GAL will have been passed over many times. So maybe. But more than likely, to the extent these goals are met, they will have completely exhausted the 013 register, more so than any post 07 register. if they actually get 1900 ALJs, almost all of them will be less than 10-15 years into their life tenure, and attrition will be non-existent. And no more baby boomers to justify the numbers. All of which to say, if you aren't on now, don't expect any movement near this magnitude until 2030-35ish, probably later. 2013 was the year to get on for sure. basically if you have the 7 years now, your next best shot will be when you hit 55-60 ish. ALJ attrition at ODAR has been pretty consistent at 10% per year for as long as I can remember, which is why it has been so painful for the agency when OPM doesn't do any hiring. The ALJ classes hired within the past 10 years are historically younger than past classes. That said, there has still been a number of new ALJs hired in their 60s and 70s, and the younger ALJs are typically more open to quickly transferring to other agencies, or leaving the ALJ gig all together. I do not foresee that 10% number changing significantly any time soon, and until the backlog is gone, ODAR will continue to be motivated to hire new ALJs to replace the attrition. yeah, i agree with Val
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2016 9:53:18 GMT -5
250 was the goal last year as well, and the agency only ended up hiring about 200 ALJs. With attrition, I think the agency only netted about 50 ALJs. How many of those 200 ended up (or will end up) moving onto other agencies (with the limited number of insiders) is unclear. I think ODAR has a significant amount of hiring to do to increase the dispositional capacity it needs to address this backlog, considering that hiring targets seem to be more aspirational than operational. Now may be a great time to be on the register (no doubt), but I don't see hiring slowing down in 2 or 3 years.
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Post by Propmaster on Feb 12, 2016 11:31:55 GMT -5
I agree with Ramspider. I have significant doubts about the agency hiring 250 this year or either of the coming two FYs.
I also think OPM will process this refresh faster than some people think because they have ever more experience at administering it and the aftereffects of a Congressional mandate.
Those who apply imminently should consider themselves part of a broadly positive period of time for chances of being appointed. The chances will really only go down when OPM gets far enough along in their process that they can and do leave the application open year-round, or at least several times a year.
Not to mention what looks like it might be MASSIVE OMHA hiring to deal with the backlog from care for an aging population of people, virtually ALL of whom will be on Medicare when they are old enough.
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Post by gary on Feb 12, 2016 11:36:57 GMT -5
I agree with Ramspider. I have significant doubts about the agency hiring 250 this year or either of the coming two FYs. I also think OPM will process this refresh faster than some people think because they have ever more experience at administering it and the aftereffects of a Congressional mandate. Those who apply imminently should consider themselves part of a broadly positive period of time for chances of being appointed. The chances will really only go down when OPM gets far enough along in their process that they can and do leave the application open year-round, or at least several times a year. Not to mention what looks like it might be MASSIVE OMHA hiring to deal with the backlog from care for an aging population of people, virtually ALL of whom will be on Medicare when they are old enough. At the rate this process is going, if anybody hires me I'll be on Medicare.
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Post by christina on Feb 12, 2016 11:46:02 GMT -5
We all might be even the young ones!!
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Post by phoenixrakkasan on Feb 12, 2016 12:21:53 GMT -5
I agree with Ramspider. I have significant doubts about the agency hiring 250 this year or either of the coming two FYs. I also think OPM will process this refresh faster than some people think because they have ever more experience at administering it and the aftereffects of a Congressional mandate. Those who apply imminently should consider themselves part of a broadly positive period of time for chances of being appointed. The chances will really only go down when OPM gets far enough along in their process that they can and do leave the application open year-round, or at least several times a year. Not to mention what looks like it might be MASSIVE OMHA hiring to deal with the backlog from care for an aging population of people, virtually ALL of whom will be on Medicare when they are old enough. Do you think it is a Refresh as opposed to a brand new Register?
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Post by Gaidin on Feb 12, 2016 12:23:29 GMT -5
I also think OPM will process this refresh faster than some people think because they have ever more experience at administering it and the aftereffects of a Congressional mandate. I think you're wrong on what they do with the additional experience and efficiencies. Based upon how they processed the group currently waiting on NORs I don't think they are speeding it up. I suspect they are just committing fewer resources to the project or alternatively will allow more people into the pool this time around.
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Post by 71stretch on Feb 12, 2016 12:48:08 GMT -5
I agree with Ramspider. I have significant doubts about the agency hiring 250 this year or either of the coming two FYs. I also think OPM will process this refresh faster than some people think because they have ever more experience at administering it and the aftereffects of a Congressional mandate. Those who apply imminently should consider themselves part of a broadly positive period of time for chances of being appointed. The chances will really only go down when OPM gets far enough along in their process that they can and do leave the application open year-round, or at least several times a year. Not to mention what looks like it might be MASSIVE OMHA hiring to deal with the backlog from care for an aging population of people, virtually ALL of whom will be on Medicare when they are old enough. Do you think it is a Refresh as opposed to a brand new Register? It's a refresh. This register is not expiring until 2018, IIRC. And it will more than likely be extended again.
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Post by rocco1 on Feb 12, 2016 13:16:46 GMT -5
I noticed a post stating that there is some hiring of older individuals for the ALJ positions. I am in my early 60s and have been a state judge for the past decade. Is there a possibility that the hiring individuals would have an interest in someone like me at my age? I always thought older individuals may have a more difficult time in the hiring process.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2016 13:37:25 GMT -5
I won't hit the seven years experience requirement until end of summer 2016. Advice?
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Post by phoenixrakkasan on Feb 12, 2016 13:49:32 GMT -5
I noticed a post stating that there is some hiring of older individuals for the ALJ positions. I am in my early 60s and have been a state judge for the past decade. Is there a possibility that the hiring individuals would have an interest in someone like me at my age? I always thought older individuals may have a more difficult time in the hiring process. They do not care about your age. You would be considered.
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Post by christina on Feb 12, 2016 14:00:43 GMT -5
I won't hit the seven years experience requirement until end of summer 2016. Advice? hate to say it but i think you are SOL. i think you need the 7 years in by date application period closes
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2016 14:12:20 GMT -5
I won't hit the seven years experience requirement until end of summer 2016. Advice? hate to say it but i think you are SOL. i think you need the 7 years in by date application period closes The fellow above who stated it's now or not again until 2030 has me a bit worried!
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Post by christina on Feb 12, 2016 14:14:48 GMT -5
2030 sounds too long but it could be awhile.
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Post by gary on Feb 12, 2016 14:20:17 GMT -5
We are expecting a refresh to begin just over three years after they started the process that created this register. Based on that history, one might predict another refresh beginning in May 2019.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2016 14:21:59 GMT -5
We are expecting a refresh to begin just over three years after they started the process that created this register. Based on that history, one might predict another refresh beginning in May 2019. New to some of the lingo, would that mean a new chance to apply in May 2019?
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Post by Propmaster on Feb 12, 2016 14:28:45 GMT -5
We are expecting a refresh to begin just over three years after they started the process that created this register. Based on that history, one might predict another refresh beginning in May 2019. New to some of the lingo, would that mean a new chance to apply in May 2019? Yes. I would expect them more frequently. Now that SSA has the power to 'ask' for more testing, I seriously look for OPM to work toward a rolling application system. In response to an earlier post in this thread - this is definitely a refresh. I am not sure that is an official term. It may be more accurate to just say that this is a new announcement of an opening for the existing register from which ALJs are selected to be selected, and those who apply on time and complete the process will join the existing register, much like the next contestant on The Price is Right - he or she just has one less round to get on stage until the show is over and the next day starts again.
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