Fiscal 2017 hiring if OPM takes longer than expected to test

[Topperlaw]

So, it appears that the new applicants have not yet received Notices that they get to move on to the online portion of the process (SJT, etc.). Friday will be four weeks since the application period closed, correct? Thus, it appears that OPM is already falling behind the pace of the 2013 hiring period. Last time it took almost exactly one year from the closing of the application period until NOR came out placing the first batch of applicants onto the register. Does anyone have any guesses as to how long this process will take this time? If OPM were to fall behind by any more than a month, then we're talking no NOR until about June 2017. No NOR until June 1, 2017 would likely mean no new ALJ classes from the newbies until, what, August 1, 2017? 

Obviously, for us individuals who are currently on the register but don't have the best of scores, we have a pretty significant interest in the process taking a little bit longer to give us at least some chance of making a cert or two and getting picked up before we are washed over by the tide of incoming new scores that are much better. Let's say that I am correct and no NOR go out until June 1, 2017, how much hiring must SSA do in the first part of fiscal 2017 (from October 1, 2016 until June 1, 2016) in order to keep up with their stated goals. Could SSA finish up all of their fiscal 2016 hiring and decide to wait until June 2017 for the new applicants to get on board then do all of the fiscal 2017 hiring after that. My guess is that SSA needs to do at least 100 hires in the period from October 2016 to June 2017 off of the register as it currently stands in order to meet their hiring goals. It also seems, however, that next Spring SSA, will need to do the same thing it did this Spring---a new cert in early April for interviews in May and start dates in June/July. It doesn't seem that SSA would be able to wait on OPM to finish the process if it was going to take until June 2017 and would have to do significant hiring in fiscal 2017 without the newbies on board. Does anyone else have any thoughts on how this might all play out?

[Gaidin]

My SWAG is that whatever additional time there is between the invitations to the second phase and what happened in 2013 is likely to be the total additional time.

The fact that some folks are already seeing status changes makes me think that it may not be as much of a delay as I previously predicted.

I do not make predictions about ODAR's hiring plans more that a year away.

[gary]

I have not yet seen evidence that OPM has fallen behind the timing of the 2013 schedule.

Thursday will be the day that is the same length of time after the JOA closed as the 2013 date on which I received my online testing invite.

More telling will be the dates the online testing link is open. To match 2013's timing the link would need to be open 5/23-6/3/2016.

[southernfun]

I still don't see hard evidence the process is slower. If the online testing opens by May 23rd (my WAG) then it's tracking with prior processes.

There is zero point in speculating about next year hiring because this November election could have a YUGE effect on the hiring numbers next year.

[Deleted]

I understand the arguments you all make regarding no time delay, but there is evidence the process is slower this time: one ALJ I know got the email inviting him to the online testing on Apr 2, which was 18 days after the close of applications. While status changes may be occurring now, there is no evidence that anyone has received the email invite to the online stage. The Apr 2 email would have equated to email invites occurring on Apr 26 this time--so there is at least a delay in the emails going out.

An earlier post about the online component for the quarterly vet testing happening indicates that the gap between the invite email and actual testing may be quicker this time, so it is possible they can make up the time and the online component might still be offered by May 23, So I guess we will know on May 23 for sure.

Topper---The 2013 period also included the Oct government shutdown, which could have delayed the initial certs from being procured, so it is possible they may have been completed prior to that 1y window.

[71stretch]

Even if this stage goes a bit slower, that doesn't mean the succeeding stages will, too. And if taking this initial stage a bit slower means greater accuracy at this stage , those of you who applied or reapplied should be happy for that.

Good point about the shutdown. It didn't last long, but it doesn't take much to affect what momentum there is in this process.

[Deleted]

100% concur with stretch.

There were several gaps in the 2013-14 timeline that offer the opportunity for quicker turnaround time on procuring the first cert, so it's entirely possible this process can (should) be faster this time. Which is precisely why a delay at those early stages is maddening.

[southernfun]

I had someone at ODAR tell me they believe it was between seven and eight thousand applicants this round.  I suspect that was a WAG on their part, they are higher up the food chain than I am, but still don't know why they would know.

Anything in that range would have to slow the process down, I would suspect.  However, OPM workers are amazing and they do a fantastic job, so maybe they can keep it tracking quickly even with this large bolus.

I still believe ODAR wants to hire as much as possible in this year due to election uncertainty.

[Topperlaw]

I understand that the hiring is up in the air and that the timeline for the new applicants to make the register is in flux. But, if the new applicants don't come on board until June 2017 and therefore can't even be interviewed until July 2017, is it logistically possible for SSA to conduct 250 (or even 200) hires in fiscal 2017 but do none of the hiring until after the new applicants come on board.

[gary]

That would require classes of 100 each (for 200) or 125 each (for 250) in August and September. That would strain possibly to the breaking HR (Bob, Mellinda, and anyone else working with them) to start the new hires, would require holding training away from the FC training facility which could not accomodate that many in that short a time, would likely require them to rent additional equipment to allow the new ALJs to be at computers and monitors during trainings, and would likely put additional strains on their resources I'm not thinking of right now.

I doubt that SSA could do that much hiring in that timeframe and, even if they could, I don't think they'd strain their resources like that to do so.

[Propmaster]

There is a viable Midwest training facility with computers, etc., already controlled by SSA. Nonetheless, I agree they will never do that.

[gary]

Have they ever trained new ALJs there, Prop? I understand they used to train at a hotel near DC or Baltimore, but I'm not sure they've done that since they got the FC training facility.

[Pixie]

May 3, 2016 16:18:54 GMT -5 gary said:

Have they ever trained new ALJs there, Prop? I understand they used to train at a hotel near DC or Baltimore, but I'm not sure they've done that since they got the FC training facility.

If Prop is talking about the St. Louis training center, no. There are a bunch of hotels in D.C. Alexandria, Arlington, etc. that have been used in the past, as well as Baltimore. Pixie.

[cowboy]

Training is not constrained just by space, but time and trainers. ALJ trainers are experienced ALJs who have their own case loads and work requirements. Usually they are only training for a week at a time, sometimes more, but the ALJ training usually last 4 weeks. Even with the VODs I don't think they've been able to trim down the time yet. There is a LOT of information to pass on and 4 weeks seems short, especially to those new to the agency. Thus, for one 40 person training class, they may use up to two dozen trainers. Along with the trainers, there is a lot of staff working to make training efficient and then there are the visits by the Chief Judge and other Agency leaders. That's a lot of logistics to keep straight and plan in advance. All might change by the time the decision to hire and the amount of new hires is made. The current schedule of training takes hiring to the last possible moment before the new budget year. Since it is an election year, don't expect a budget to be formalized before the election results are know. That means all decisions should be completed by October 1 (hiring, not training - hiring is the important point for budget decisions).

I hope for all those waiting that it will finally turn out to be a big hiring year. It's a long time in coming, not just for those of you waiting to hear the call, but those in the offices looking at huge vacancies.

[wvjabes]

May 3, 2016 13:39:17 GMT -5 southernfun said:

I had someone at ODAR tell me they believe it was between seven and eight thousand applicants this round.  I suspect that was a WAG on their part, they are higher up the food chain than I am, but still don't know why they would know.

Anything in that range would have to slow the process down, I would suspect.  However, OPM workers are amazing and they do a fantastic job, so maybe they can keep it tracking quickly even with this large bolus.

I still believe ODAR wants to hire as much as possible in this year due to election uncertainty.

IMO, the belief is likely stemming from "gossip" that's filtered around the "grapevine".     

I've been questioned about the number of applicants this round from a few people who knew I applied, which people have ODAR connections of sorts. I have offered my suspicion of at least 8k (I actually wouldn't be surprised if the number is much higher even), which is only a WAG on my part, which WAG was solely formed based upon various pieces of info gleaned from a whole bunch of threads here and other reasoning.  Frankly what I KNOW about all of this is truly nothing.  And of course .... I could be wrong on all of this too.