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Post by moopigsdad on Aug 13, 2013 8:38:32 GMT -5
Actually since nobody has reported a completely full room yet, it is likely there may be closer to only 1000 on the Register without counting appeals. Much smaller than any of us thought. I bet the cost of the travel, short notice, and just general attrition from the process is part of it. They may have anticipated more would show. No doubt true. I think a lot of people who are lurkers on this Board and find out the possibility of acquiring an ALJ position is very slim makes them seriously consider not spending the money to go to DC. Of course, if you don't try, you have zero chance. At least my slim chance by going to DC is better than zero chance by not going. Yet, I must say I am happy that a few people are opting not to go to DC because my slim chances become much better.
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Post by JudgeRatty on Aug 13, 2013 8:49:10 GMT -5
I bet the cost of the travel, short notice, and just general attrition from the process is part of it. They may have anticipated more would show. No doubt true. I think a lot of people who are lurkers on this Board and find out the possibility of acquiring an ALJ position is very slim makes them seriously consider not spending the money to go to DC. Of course, if you don't try, you have zero chance. At least my slim chance by going to DC is better than zero chance by not going. Yet, I must say I am happy that a few people are opting not to go to DC because my slim chances become much better. Indeed! Yes, I think there are many things folks consider like no guarantee with the transfer situation if they get a place they do not like or is not close to family etc. and all the tales about management variations in the different offices. It is certainly not the glamor job some may think by having the title "judge" but it is good solid public service work. I think those who understand what it takes to work within a big bureaucracy, and who want to serve the public, will enjoy the job.
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Post by steelrain on Aug 13, 2013 9:04:16 GMT -5
I agree with Moopig, I chatted with a guy during the lunch break between the WD and LBMT who had never heard of this site and his impression of how the process worked was far from reality. He assumed since his city was on the original USA Jobs listing that he was competing for an position in that city. He had no clue that he was competing for a slot on a 1000+ national list. When he mentioned that he only listed Southern CA, someone else informed him that was a "desirable" location that rarely had new hire opportunities. His response was that if he had known that he wouldn't have taken three days of vacation and spent almost $1,000 on travel and hotels.
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Post by funkyodar on Aug 13, 2013 9:12:06 GMT -5
I'm thinking the theory that 10% may opt out due to costs or personal situation driven choice may need to be revised upwards. may be closer to 15% based on the reports we have of the number of no shows.
i'm with you, the more that opt out the better. Would love to know if there is planned testing beyond the first week of October. if not, it certainly means a register of around a thousand and that's great news for those on it.
Could also mean good news for those appealing. If OPM wanted a register of greater size and due to voluntary withdrawals they get one substantially smaller than expected/needed....may mean they are more loose with the appeal process and who they let through. or maybe not.
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Post by funkyodar on Aug 13, 2013 9:13:58 GMT -5
I agree with Moopig, I chatted with a guy during the lunch break between the WD and LBMT who had never heard of this site and his impression of how the process worked was far from reality. He assumed since his city was on the original USA Jobs listing that he was competing for an position in that city. He had no clue that he was competing for a slot on a 1000+ national list. When he mentioned that he only listed Southern CA, someone else informed him that was a "desirable" location that rarely had new hire opportunities. His response was that if he had known that he wouldn't have taken three days of vacation and spent almost $1,000 on travel and hotels. It is amazing to me that someone would have applied for a job without at least doing a google search.
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Post by steelrain on Aug 13, 2013 9:20:18 GMT -5
I agree Funky, but in this case it might have been a generational issue as well. But there were quite of few people who professed no knowledge of this site. I often remark to my wife that I would be lost without the internet.
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Post by trekker on Aug 13, 2013 9:35:26 GMT -5
I am not sure it is a generational thing since the participants on this board appear to represent a broad spectrum of ages, experiences and legal work -- both as current ALJ's and wannabe's. I also think that the job application process has changed so much over the past few years and for most jobs, you apply on-line and then someone from HR calls you and asks you questions totally unrelated to your skill set. I have also been amazed at how many applicants for any job these days do not really read the minimum requirements for the job (bet there was more than one applicant for this register that had less than 7 years experience as an attorney). Finally, a fair number of people who have been actively posting here really do not know anything about how SSA works. This doesn't mean they aren't qualified for the position or would not be a good ALJ, it just has been an eye opener for them. For those applicants who have never had to deal with administrative hearings, especially SSA ODAR hearings, they are in for a surprise. Despite that, I still want the job and it has been a goal that I have wanted to achieve for about 10 years (missed all the past opportunities because of the time limitations).
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Post by lurker/dibs on Aug 13, 2013 9:35:52 GMT -5
I went to law school, not math school, but I will take a shot at this....guessing 9 weeks of testing, guessing 4 days per week with 27 participants being present (trying to average the number attending with maximum of 32 and reports of 23-29)...that would mean only 972 actually testing. Then assuming that 10% actually not being able to formulate a true sentence or totally crashing on the SI....that would leave approx 875.
Funky, I believe you did the math before. If we are to believe that the register will be open a minimum of 3 years, what is the likelihood that you will be hired if you are one of the 875? I looked to see what the expected attrition rates are, but couldn't find them. Perhaps I'm brain dead today.
I realize this is a bit like counting your eggs before they hatch, but it's fun to fantasize about. Kind of like wondering how I would actually spend my lottery winnings when I play. And it seems after this little math equation that the odds of winning this lottery are getting better by the week--of course that only applies if I don't screw myself up.
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Post by trickbag on Aug 13, 2013 9:47:17 GMT -5
It is amazing to me that someone would have applied for a job without at least doing a google search. Just my personal, relatively uninformed theory, but I think the practice of leaving the application open for two weeks is backfiring a bit. Instead of getting 600 or 900 truly motivated people who understood the job (likely SSA ALJ), the application process, and were 100% invested in becoming an ALJ, they got a pool of 5500 people with varying degrees of motivation and knowledge of the application process / job requirements (maybe even with very limited GAL, like the individual mentioned above). I'd assume that the result is a lot of well-qualified people who understood the job got cut due to the sheer numbers game, while a non-significant portion of the survivors eventually said "no thanks" when they realized the costs, chances of success, and other factors. I think that's very insightful, sbb. Hopefully the opposite side of that coin is that they pulled a more diverse, better-qualified group than they would have otherwise...but I'm not sure that's what every hiring agency would have chosen. (since qualified is a term that means different things for different agencies!)
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Post by funkyodar on Aug 13, 2013 10:04:19 GMT -5
I went to law school, not math school, but I will take a shot at this....guessing 9 weeks of testing, guessing 4 days per week with 27 participants being present (trying to average the number attending with maximum of 32 and reports of 23-29)...that would mean only 972 actually testing. Then assuming that 10% actually not being able to formulate a true sentence or totally crashing on the SI....that would leave approx 875. Funky, I believe you did the math before. If we are to believe that the register will be open a minimum of 3 years, what is the likelihood that you will be hired if you are one of the 875? I looked to see what the expected attrition rates are, but couldn't find them. Perhaps I'm brain dead today. I realize this is a bit like counting your eggs before they hatch, but it's fun to fantasize about. Kind of like wondering how I would actually spend my lottery winnings when I play. And it seems after this little math equation that the odds of winning this lottery are getting better by the week--of course that only applies if I don't screw myself up. Ok Lurker, let me take a swing at this.... SSA has 90+ current openings. They are hireing up to 30 by next month. So let's say 60 openings. It has previously been reported that SSA loses 10% of its ALJs per year to retirment/attrition. (I know there is a theory that is well supported that retirements over the next year or so will increase due to the sick time being counted deal, but lets just stick to the 10%.) That is roughly 150 retirements a year. Over three years (the rumored life of the register, though that rumor is suspect given the register was also rumored to have 1500 or so on it) that is 450 SSA ALJ retirements, adding the 60 other openings that 510. I have no clue on the other agencies alj attrition or vacancies, but given they have only around 10% of the total aljs lets just go with 40 for a nice total number of 550. If the register ends with only the 875 (your best guestimation) and all vacancies are filled in that three year period, thats a 63% chance of landing the job. Now, we know that the budget situation will not allow the filling of all vacancies. The fact that SSA has 90+ openings and is filling only 30 would seem to indicate that the best we could hope for is filling 1/3 of all vacancies. So, that means of the 550 total, only 183 get filled. With a register of 875, thats a 21% chance of landing a job. As i noted before though, your scores, GAL, insider/outsider status and probably 100 other things can increase or decrease your chances. There will be those with high scores and extremely narrow GALs that have waaaaaay less than a 20% chance of getting a job. Similarly, there will be those among us that have low scores that never make a cert. So, this exercise is not even close to accurate (given the vast unknowns) but it's fun. In truth, if the register is less than 1k and lasts for three years...I would think anyone that scores in the top half and has a fairly open GAL has a very good shot of landing a job. Depending of course on whether or not there even is a job.
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Post by moopigsdad on Aug 13, 2013 10:16:50 GMT -5
I went to law school, not math school, but I will take a shot at this....guessing 9 weeks of testing, guessing 4 days per week with 27 participants being present (trying to average the number attending with maximum of 32 and reports of 23-29)...that would mean only 972 actually testing. Then assuming that 10% actually not being able to formulate a true sentence or totally crashing on the SI....that would leave approx 875. Funky, I believe you did the math before. If we are to believe that the register will be open a minimum of 3 years, what is the likelihood that you will be hired if you are one of the 875? I looked to see what the expected attrition rates are, but couldn't find them. Perhaps I'm brain dead today. I realize this is a bit like counting your eggs before they hatch, but it's fun to fantasize about. Kind of like wondering how I would actually spend my lottery winnings when I play. And it seems after this little math equation that the odds of winning this lottery are getting better by the week--of course that only applies if I don't screw myself up. I like funky's math, but here is my take on it, but from a different angle. The assumption is the sequester will be taken care of in the next year, so hiring may go back to closer to normal. So, here is my take at it. Assuming a 5% to 10% attrition rate due to retirement or other reason or approximately 90 to 100 or so each year. There have been some report that it could go as high as 15% to 20% for the next couple of years due to changes in how the Federal Govt. counts sick/annual leave time, which could mean 150 or more each year. There are already 60 ALJ positions not being filled right now after this last round of hiring. Hence, add another 250 or 300 to that over the next few years and the total hires (if fully replaced) would be around 300 to 350 or more positions. Hence, you could have a one in three shot of a position. Of course that depends upon you GAL and other factors. I would think you odds are up from what had been 1 in 6 to acquire a position from past Registers to 1 in 3 or 4 from this Register. It still depends upon how well you do in the entire process, including the SSA interview, if you are chosen to take one. If SSA doesn't like those left remaining on the Register after some hiring, they will ask for a refresh and then all bets are off as to odds. Also, if you get 3 struck you are out too. Odds are still against you, but not as great as before.
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Post by lurker/dibs on Aug 13, 2013 10:25:46 GMT -5
Thanks folks! I know it's silly. But the "what ifs" are fun at this point. I know I have to do well on the DC portion to have a shot and I have a fairly wide GAL. But with the smaller and smaller numbers reported, the odds seem to be getting better!
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Post by hopefalj on Aug 13, 2013 10:57:30 GMT -5
I wouldn't make any assumptions about the end of the sequester at this point. The original assumption was the sequester was problematic for both sides, which would cause the two sides to compromise on some sort of budget that called for increased revenue and Spending cuts. We've seen how that's played out. Congress and the President still have debt ceiling issues to grand stand about on top of the generic budget issues, and I would guess a CR (or 2, or 3, etc.) will be used throughout FY2014 yet again.
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Post by workdrone on Aug 13, 2013 10:58:48 GMT -5
Well, couple angles to add:
1. 10 pt vets can take the test anytime.
2. Words on the street is the Agency is unhappy with how the test progression turned out this time due to significant insider attrition. So don't be surprised that it pushes OPM to do a refresh as soon as it can.
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Post by Gaidin on Aug 13, 2013 10:59:27 GMT -5
I agree with Moopig, I chatted with a guy during the lunch break between the WD and LBMT who had never heard of this site and his impression of how the process worked was far from reality. He assumed since his city was on the original USA Jobs listing that he was competing for an position in that city. He had no clue that he was competing for a slot on a 1000+ national list. When he mentioned that he only listed Southern CA, someone else informed him that was a "desirable" location that rarely had new hire opportunities. His response was that if he had known that he wouldn't have taken three days of vacation and spent almost $1,000 on travel and hotels. It is amazing to me that someone would have applied for a job without at least doing a google search. I am not amazed they would have applied. I am amazed they spent that much time and money going to DC without doing a Google search.
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Post by funkyodar on Aug 13, 2013 11:24:07 GMT -5
2. Words on the street is the Agency is unhappy with how the test progression turned out this time due to significant insider attrition. So don't be surprised that it pushes OPM to do a refresh as soon as it can. Me likey this ^^^^^^^. I also expect a relatively quick hire from the register as I think many expect legal challenges to the new testing. Such a challenge could freeze hiring from it for some time as it did in the past. An individual's right wouldnt be ripe until all appeal procesess are completed. That is why i think OPM has made it a point to state that appeals would not be ruled upon until the original folks are thru and on the register. If they take their time ruling on the appeals, that would let there be at least one hiring before anyone could rightfully sue and stop it. Warning: Complete conspiracy theory nutcase thoughts ahead I too have heard that SSA is unhappy with the insider numbers issue. Perhaps they are simply waiting for teh register to be completed, then plan to come in and cherry pick who they want (insiders and outsiders) and then join in the chorus of lawsuits and political pressure to refresh/redo/kill the rest of the register. If so, that first hire (perhaps only hire) from the new register may be larger than we could normally expect.
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Post by grandparay1 on Aug 13, 2013 11:43:41 GMT -5
If SSA is really unhappy with the insider issue, would SSA consider another cert from the current register? I have repeatedly expressed this option, and Observer53 has responded (rightfully so) that due to fiscal year issues as well as SSA's apparent disdain for those of us remaining on this register, that it won't happen. I am just hopping to get one more chance off this register. Any thoughts?
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Post by crab on Aug 13, 2013 11:54:22 GMT -5
2. Words on the street is the Agency is unhappy with how the test progression turned out this time due to significant insider attrition. So don't be surprised that it pushes OPM to do a refresh as soon as it can. What is a "refresh"? Is that OPM administering the test again? And when you say insider attrition, does that mean they are displeased with the number of insiders that failed to move on to the final round of testing?
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Post by workdrone on Aug 13, 2013 12:02:16 GMT -5
Crab, yes and yes to both points.
As for getting another cert off current register. No, CW is that the well is empty after this final dance in August.
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Post by crab on Aug 13, 2013 12:15:18 GMT -5
Seems like a lot of money and effort in these austere fiscal times to do this process over again any time soon. I hope for everyone's sake that they are pleased with the talent culled from the current test-takers, whether they be inside, outside, or upside down.
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