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Post by funkyodar on May 7, 2014 12:12:48 GMT -5
ok, help me out. Am I correct in understanding that all those who got an e-mail Friday saying that they made cert have around a 50 percent chance of getting hired this fiscal year? No. 50% or thereabouts is the AVERAGE chance of being hired. Someone who scored an 80+, had a wide GAL, and made the cert for 40 different cities, has a superb chace of being hired if she interviews well. She'll be Top 3 for many cities and, with so many chances, is likely to be chosen. But someone who scored 74 and made the cert for only one city has only a small chance of being hired. He probably won't be Top 3 for his one city and thus, by law, can't be chosen. In fact, his only chance arises if (a) his city is one of the last to be reached for hiring, and (b) by that time almost all the people above him have been either hired for other cities or three-struck. Perfectly stated. One caveat, I really think to have made the cert at all you had to have been in the top 3 to 5 (depending on how many slots in that city) for at least one city. That got you on the cert, then you were added to every city where your score got you in the top 20, 40, 60 or whatever cut off they used. So, I think if you made the cert you must be technically "reachable" for at least one city in your list. Now, those in front may have VP and essentially means you aren't reachable. Also, as noted by bucksfan, the odds will go up as some will decline and others may strike cities in which they were higher ranked. I have also heard thru the grapevine that they may do the background checks (if not the full ref checks) before sending interview invites this time so they can avoid the expense of bringing someone to interview only to find out later they can't hire them. I doubt many will fall to that, but a couple might. Finally, its still possible that omha could get the lead out and snap up a few of the higher scorers.
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Post by christina on May 7, 2014 12:33:45 GMT -5
good points robespierre and funky. doing the background checks first actually makes a lot of sense so maybe they will go that route
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wayne
Full Member
Posts: 55
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Post by wayne on May 7, 2014 12:37:51 GMT -5
Does anyone have any suggestions as to what we need to tell our references to "get them up to speed"?
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Post by funkyodar on May 7, 2014 12:41:33 GMT -5
Does anyone have any suggestions as to what we need to tell our references to "get them up to speed"? I recommend them saying something like: "Wayne is amazing. Best lawyer in the world. I mean, he's no funkyodar, but he is awesome."
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Post by hopefalj on May 7, 2014 12:45:26 GMT -5
Does anyone have any suggestions as to what we need to tell our references to "get them up to speed"? I don't know where it is, but there is a post that actually contains the questions asked of references in the past.
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Post by 71stretch on May 7, 2014 12:49:29 GMT -5
Does anyone have any suggestions as to what we need to tell our references to "get them up to speed"? Well, there is no guarantee that they won't change the interview questions, but the ones that have been used up to now for several years have been posted or linked to many times here. Here you go: aljdiscussion.proboards.com/thread/1396/dear-reference-make-cert
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Post by gary on May 7, 2014 13:23:52 GMT -5
No. 50% or thereabouts is the AVERAGE chance of being hired. Someone who scored an 80+, had a wide GAL, and made the cert for 40 different cities, has a superb chace of being hired if she interviews well. She'll be Top 3 for many cities and, with so many chances, is likely to be chosen. But someone who scored 74 and made the cert for only one city has only a small chance of being hired. He probably won't be Top 3 for his one city and thus, by law, can't be chosen. In fact, his only chance arises if (a) his city is one of the last to be reached for hiring, and (b) by that time almost all the people above him have been either hired for other cities or three-struck. Perfectly stated. One caveat, I really think to have made the cert at all you had to have been in the top 3 to 5 (depending on how many slots in that city) for at least one city. That got you on the cert, then you were added to every city where your score got you in the top 20, 40, 60 or whatever cut off they used. So, I think if you made the cert you must be technically "reachable" for at least one city in your list. Now, those in front may have VP and essentially means you aren't reachable. Also, as noted by bucksfan, the odds will go up as some will decline and others may strike cities in which they were higher ranked. I have also heard thru the grapevine that they may do the background checks (if not the full ref checks) before sending interview invites this time so they can avoid the expense of bringing someone to interview only to find out later they can't hire them. I doubt many will fall to that, but a couple might. Finally, its still possible that omha could get the lead out and snap up a few of the higher scorers. They could add you to all those other certs only if everyone with a higher score whose GAL included that city was also on the cert. My guess is that for each city they figured out how many candidates they would need (taking into account all the possible hiring and three-striking for other locations) and just went that far down the list of people whose GALs included that city.
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Post by moopigsdad on May 7, 2014 13:44:27 GMT -5
Perfectly stated. One caveat, I really think to have made the cert at all you had to have been in the top 3 to 5 (depending on how many slots in that city) for at least one city. That got you on the cert, then you were added to every city where your score got you in the top 20, 40, 60 or whatever cut off they used. So, I think if you made the cert you must be technically "reachable" for at least one city in your list. Now, those in front may have VP and essentially means you aren't reachable. Also, as noted by bucksfan, the odds will go up as some will decline and others may strike cities in which they were higher ranked. I have also heard thru the grapevine that they may do the background checks (if not the full ref checks) before sending interview invites this time so they can avoid the expense of bringing someone to interview only to find out later they can't hire them. I doubt many will fall to that, but a couple might. Finally, its still possible that omha could get the lead out and snap up a few of the higher scorers. They could add you to all those other certs only if everyone with a higher score whose GAL included that city was also on the cert. My guess is that for each city they figured out how many candidates they would need (taking into account all the possible hiring and three-striking for other locations) and just went that far down the list of people whose GALs included that city. Well stated Gary it sounds familiar, like I heard or said something strangely similar yesterday, but I truly believe you are right on with the statement in bold above.
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Post by funkyodar on May 7, 2014 13:45:42 GMT -5
I didn't mean having people decline, or strike a city or get hired by omha or fail the background would mean someone on a cert for Alexandria could some how make the cert for Philly.
But if those drop outs are above them for Alexandria, naturally they move up that list and have a better shot.
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Post by funkyodar on May 7, 2014 13:46:56 GMT -5
Sorry...misunderstood your point, I think
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Post by orchid on May 7, 2014 13:47:26 GMT -5
I didn't mean having people decline, or strike a city or get hired by omha or fail the background would mean someone on a cert for Alexandria could some how make the cert for Philly. But if those drop outs are above them for Alexandria, naturally they move up that list and have a better shot. Are candidates ever added to a cert if a certain number decline the interview?
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Post by funkyodar on May 7, 2014 13:49:46 GMT -5
So then its your theory they just took the top 20, 40 or 60 for each city?
And with gals in consideration, that accounted for just 168 folks?
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Post by gary on May 7, 2014 13:51:34 GMT -5
They could add you to all those other certs only if everyone with a higher score whose GAL included that city was also on the cert. My guess is that for each city they figured out how many candidates they would need (taking into account all the possible hiring and three-striking for other locations) and just went that far down the list of people whose GALs included that city. Well stated Gary it sounds familiar, like I heard or said something strangely similar yesterday, but I truly believe you are right on with the statement in bold above. I think we've been in agreement much of the time on this subject. If you said it first, I apologize for the lack of attribution. Any plagiarism in that regard was purely unintentional.
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Post by moopigsdad on May 7, 2014 14:00:22 GMT -5
So then its your theory they just took the top 20, 40 or 60 for each city? And with gals in consideration, that accounted for just 168 folks? Remember the discussion yesterday. Quite a few at the top have a wide enough GAL to include most of the cities in the cert. Some did not. Let's use F as an example again. F certed for 38 cities out of 45 cities. Either F didn't have a completely wide open GAL or F's score was not in the top 47 scores for the other 7 cities he didn't receive a cert on. However, some cities may need 50 or 53 people on the cert because there are two or three openings. Person A had a score of 85 and a complete wide open GAL, so A made every city on the cert. F's score was only 75, so he wasn't in the top 47, 50 or 53 people for 7 cities (if F had a wide open GAL, but if it was not wide open that could explain why some of those cities weren't on F's cert). This way SSA could start and end with any city on the cert and still have three unique names to choose from. Of course, it is always using the top three scores of individuals for each city that remain in the process. (Caveat this is assuming no three strikes. SSA and OPM could add few more names to the 47, 50 or 53 individuals to account for the possibility of three struck individuals.)
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Post by 71stretch on May 7, 2014 14:06:45 GMT -5
I didn't mean having people decline, or strike a city or get hired by omha or fail the background would mean someone on a cert for Alexandria could some how make the cert for Philly. But if those drop outs are above them for Alexandria, naturally they move up that list and have a better shot. Are candidates ever added to a cert if a certain number decline the interview? No, but it could THEORETICALLY lead to a small supplemental cert if they end up not being able to fill all 90. They'd have to get that done in time that those few hires could make the second hire date and training class.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2014 14:18:20 GMT -5
Would we guess that most of those on the OMHA certs are also are also on ODAR certs? If so, is there a sense whether OMHA will extend offers before ODAR extends its offers? Some on the Board have said that OMHA moves slowly, but it seems OMHA is dealing with a much smaller number of candidates who could be more quickly interviewed and background/reference checked. It also seems that if OMHA does not move more quickly than ODAR to extend offers, then its possible that a large number of the OMHA candidates will no longer be available when OMHA wants to hire. I ask these questions in light of the post earlier today that the new OMHA Denver office will have 16 ALJ's. If (a) OMHA hires anything close to 16 new ALJ's off of the certs sent to them (they also have at least one vacancy each in Cleveland, Miami and Irvine) and (b) if those OMHA new hires are then no longer available to be hired by ODAR, then the 168 now on the ODAR certs might become more like 150 - 155 if OMHA hires its ALJs first.
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Post by funkyodar on May 7, 2014 14:20:30 GMT -5
So then its your theory they just took the top 20, 40 or 60 for each city? And with gals in consideration, that accounted for just 168 folks? Remember the discussion yesterday. Quite a few at the top have a wide enough GAL to include most of the cities in the cert. Some did not. Let's use F as an example again. F certed for 38 cities out of 45 cities. Either F didn't have a completely wide open GAL or F's score was not in the top 47 scores for the other 7 cities he didn't receive a cert on. However, some cities may need 50 or 53 people on the cert because there are two or three openings. Person A had a score of 85 and a complete wide open GAL, so A made every city on the cert. F's score was only 75, so he wasn't in the top 47, 50 or 53 people for 7 cities (if F had a wide open GAL, but if it was not wide open that could explain why some of those cities weren't on F's cert). This way SSA could start and end with any city on the cert and still have three unique names to choose from. Of course, it is always using the top three scores of individuals for each city that remain in the process. (Caveat this is assuming no three strikes. SSA and OPM could add few more names to the 47, 50 or 53 individuals to account for the possibility of three struck individuals.) I don't like it because it means I could be #50 on each of my 38 cities....but it does seem reasonable.
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Post by gary on May 7, 2014 14:22:07 GMT -5
So then its your theory they just took the top 20, 40 or 60 for each city? And with gals in consideration, that accounted for just 168 folks? Remember the discussion yesterday. Quite a few at the top have a wide enough GAL to include most of the cities in the cert. Some did not. Let's use F as an example again. F certed for 38 cities out of 45 cities. Either F didn't have a completely wide open GAL or F's score was not in the top 47 scores for the other 7 cities he didn't receive a cert on. However, some cities may need 50 or 53 people on the cert because there are two or three openings. Person A had a score of 85 and a complete wide open GAL, so A made every city on the cert. F's score was only 75, so he wasn't in the top 47, 50 or 53 people for 7 cities (if F had a wide open GAL, but if it was not wide open that could explain why some of those cities weren't on F's cert). This way SSA could start and end with any city on the cert and still have three unique names to choose from. Of course, it is always using the top three scores of individuals for each city that remain in the process. It would not necessarily have been the same number in each city given the variations in people's GALs. OPM would have to take into account the possible hiring, possible 3-striking, and the effect of particular GALs. They know going in that for 90 slots there's a potential that 150 candidates will be "used up" (I.e., up to 90 hired and up to 60 three-struck) so they have to have at least that many total candidates on the certs. My theory is they went down a subset of the total register of people whose GALs included the location on the particular cert and listed enough candidates to allow SSA to be able to fill the vacancies for that city should it be taken last and should SSA have maximally hired and 3-struck along the way. They likely used a computer to do the heavy lifting on this rather than employees wearing green eyeshades.
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Post by funkyodar on May 7, 2014 14:31:20 GMT -5
Also very reasonable assumption.
But.....what that does is make it all the more necessary for ssa to be able to reach further down into certain certs to get to who they want. Sure, they can do that with 3 striking to a degree.
But, given they have that many names for each city and many of them are the same names, I still think nothing prevents them from deciding not to fill a slot in one locale in favor of filling another in a different city if they have the space in that diff city and doing so let's them drop down the list to reach someone they want.
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Post by gary on May 7, 2014 14:38:40 GMT -5
Also very reasonable assumption. But.....what that does is make it all the more necessary for ssa to be able to reach further down into certain certs to get to who they want. Sure, they can do that with 3 striking to a degree. But, given they have that many names for each city and many of them are the same names, I still think nothing prevents them from deciding not to fill a slot in one locale in favor of filling another in a different city if they have the space in that diff city and doing so let's them drop down the list to reach someone they want. If it's on the same round of certs and the second city's cert does not have enough vacancies on it, I disagree. This I believe is where OPM's requiring separate certs for each city has changed the game for SSA. However, you have far more knowledge of this process than I, so it is entirely possible you are right and I am wrong.
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