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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2014 9:37:04 GMT -5
I have joined this forum in the past but never actually pressed the submit button after filling out my ALJ application. I will definitely apply if a new round is posted. I apologize in advance if this question has already been addressed in prior threads. An ALJ in MA told me that he heard that a new round looking for 500 ALJs is in the works. It sounds too good to be true. Any feedback? Now that the January class is complete, when will the next posting show up? All speculative, of course, but I'm still interested in hearing your insights.
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Post by gary on Nov 22, 2014 9:58:10 GMT -5
We have it on extremely reliable authority that SSA is planning to hire 250 ALJs in FY2015. That number includes the January group that is still pending. I am unaware of anything about current plans for the 500 you state.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2014 10:26:29 GMT -5
Thank you for this information. How many ALJs have been hired in the recent round?
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Post by gary on Nov 22, 2014 10:34:52 GMT -5
71 at the end of FY2014, who were the first hires off the new register.
We have reports from 2 board members on the first set of certs that they were hired to start in January. There may be a few more hired for January who are not on the Board or are remaining silent.
The emails for the present set of certs said candidates if hired needed to be prepared to start in late January, so at least some of those candidates are to be hired to fill out the January class. Interviews have not been completed for the second set of certs.
Whether they will be hiring for additional classes starting after January from this set of certs is subject to debate among us.
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Post by luckylady2 on Nov 22, 2014 10:58:50 GMT -5
Well 1st. Welcome back to the forum Hannah!
If this is more basic info than you need , I apologize, but unless you apply for a direct-hire job through USA Jobs, the only way to be eliglble to be hired is to be on OPM!s Register of eligibles. The last time applications for the Register was open was for 1 week in March 2013. All of the "rounds" of hiring at SSA that we are talking about will be done from this Register. The consensus it that in this last solicitation, approximately 900 people made the Register & so far about 70 have been hired from it. It will be a couple of years before OPM solicits applications for the Register again.
You should also be aware that, for the current Register, once we applied, to took about 18 months to go through the testing & interview process. Now this may have been unusually long, because litigation had held up ALJ hiring for several years & a lot of people applied. (I think the number of applications was estimated to be in the 6,000 to 7,000 range)
Moral of the story - Next time hit the Submit button!
Now the good news is that you'll have info from the forum BEFORE you apply - something many of us wished we'd had - and might think differently about some of the application choices as a result. So there IS an up side to waiting till you are really ready
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2014 11:12:15 GMT -5
Thank you for this summary of the process. I came so close to applying in March 2013, but my gut said wait. It's not time. Since then, I have moved to another state and would only apply for 3 local ODARS anyway, so I realize it's a long shot. I do hope that you are incorrect in stating that it will be a couple of years or so before a new register of applicants. As I recall, there were a few registers in the years prior to the March 2013 invite and they were not that far apart in time. Does everyone agree that a new register won't take place for a long time? Insights much appreciated.
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Post by gary on Nov 22, 2014 11:29:53 GMT -5
There are three different things OPM has in the past done when a register becomes thin applicant-wise.
First, they have refreshed the register. This allows new applicants to go through the application/testing process and, if successful, join the others still on the register.
Second, they have created a whole new register. Everyone, including those on the old register, would have to go through the whole process to, if successful, get on the new register. Once the process is complete and the new register is created, the old register is gone. This is the process we went through beginning in March 2013.
Third, on one occasion without taking new applicants OPM allowed people on the register to expand their GALs. This would benefit you not at all.
The one that would help you that we expect will happen earliest is a register refresh. Our guesses, and keep in mind they are only guesses, have been that it will be a few years before OPM will refresh the register.
However, with the current aggressive hiring push and a historically small register, it may be they will reach the point where they need to refresh sooner than we think. Estimates by us of register size mostly range from 820 or so to maybe 1000. If they hire the full 250 in FY2015, with the 71 they will have hired more than 30 percent of everyone on the register, possibly more than 1/3.
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Post by saaao on Nov 22, 2014 11:45:29 GMT -5
It should probably be noted that even if SSA hires all 250 it aims for this FY with a total of 320 hires from the current register, they will still go into FY2016 behind where they had wanted to be on ALJ hiring. SSA had wanted to start aggressive hiring three years ago but had been stymied by battles with OPM and budget wars on the Hill. Granted it will be a big election year, but I would expect next FY there will continue to be aggressive hiring, likely 100-175 hires next year. At a minimum they will need to hire about 50-75 just to keep the number of ALJ's more or less stable. If SSA can get the hiring authority they desire, the current register should be exhausted due to hiring, three striking or GAL availability within a year or two. All guesstimation on my part and not solid info, but that is my read on how things will happen down the road.
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Post by luckylady2 on Nov 22, 2014 11:49:21 GMT -5
Under the newbie FAQ section on the General info page there's a timeline that gives OPM's prior history on opening & hiring from the Register. Here's the link. aljdiscussion.proboards.com/thread/1511/unofficial-alj-exam-timeline-threadIn the past OPM had quotas as to how many applications it would take, which spawned the litigation that held up hiring for several years. This was the 1st time in more than 10 years that applications were not limited by a quota. Opm will not solicit applications for a new Register until the current one has been picked pretty clean. Right now our collective guess is that there's about 830 people whose applications have been vetted, have gone through 2 sets of testing, traveled to DC for an interview, and have received a score placing them on the Register as eligible for the job. Currently there's funding to hire approximately 250 of these 830 people. More slots will probably open over time. Let's put it this way: it's really, really likely that 100% of the 2015 hiring will be from this Register. It's also really, really likely that after the 2015 hiring is done there'll still be about 400 or so people that OPM has already vetted and declared eligible still left waiting for slots to open. So we think it's very unlikely that OPM will solicit applications for a new Register when it still has 400 or more people ready willing & able. It's very unlikely that there will be a solicitation for a new Register in 2015 or 2016. Sorry but that's the way it looks right now.
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Post by robespierre on Nov 22, 2014 15:57:53 GMT -5
Hannah - Short version: The current waves of hiring are being done from the existing register, so you're out of luck there. But once we get into FY '16 starting 10/1/15, who knows? The register will be starting to show its age at that time, and could be refreshed, thus opening things up for you to apply. In my opinion it will be, but I'm in a small minority on this board, so take it with a huge grain of salt.
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Post by luckylady2 on Nov 22, 2014 16:16:30 GMT -5
Also - you're not alone in the "circumstances have changed since March 2013" department. But be aware that, for various reasons, the March 2013 application did not yield any actual hiring until August 2014, and to date only 70-80 ALJ's (best guess) have been hired from it, so the Register is not quite as old as it sounds.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2014 9:58:17 GMT -5
OK. I am optimistically hoping that the refresh will occur a year from now. One final question: I know that points are given for different types of work history like litigation experience, prior decision making roles, etc. With respect to having been a decision writer for ODAR, I did that for 21 months before returning to private practice. Are points only given in that area if the applicant surpassed the 24 month mark for SSA employment?
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Post by privateatty on Nov 23, 2014 11:56:19 GMT -5
OK. I am optimistically hoping that the refresh will occur a year from now. One final question: I know that points are given for different types of work history like litigation experience, prior decision making roles, etc. With respect to having been a decision writer for ODAR, I did that for 21 months before returning to private practice. Are points only given in that area if the applicant surpassed the 24 month mark for SSA employment? How OPM ranks experience specifically is always a mystery. We all got and you will get information in the application, but beyond that is speculative. Having said that we do know that those in an adjudicative capacity with varied experience have a leg up as do those with more rather than less in their resume.
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Post by hilltopper on Nov 23, 2014 13:05:46 GMT -5
It should probably be noted that even if SSA hires all 250 it aims for this FY with a total of 320 hires from the current register, they will still go into FY2016 behind where they had wanted to be on ALJ hiring. SSA had wanted to start aggressive hiring three years ago but had been stymied by battles with OPM and budget wars on the Hill. Granted it will be a big election year, but I would expect next FY there will continue to be aggressive hiring, likely 100-175 hires next year. At a minimum they will need to hire about 50-75 just to keep the number of ALJ's more or less stable. If SSA can get the hiring authority they desire, the current register should be exhausted due to hiring, three striking or GAL availability within a year or two. All guesstimation on my part and not solid info, but that is my read on how things will happen down the road. Since we are "guesstimating" I would make the following observations: In May 2007, OPM opened the application process in order to create a new register. (Although the notice email I received accepting my application, indicated a 2-week open period, my recollection is that the open period was closed the day they received their 1500th application which was about the 3rd day.) Testing notices were sent out in July 2007 and testing was completed in September. After testing was completed, NOR's (notices of results) were sent out October 30th. So from start to finish, the new register took a little over 5 months to create under the old testing methods. After several Certs and aggressive hiring by SSA (and a few very small ones for other agencies) OPM opened the application process to "refresh" the register in November 2009. That's about 2 years after NOR's went out that the prior register had been created. My SWAG would be that having provided NORs that the current register was created in March 2014, it will be at least March 2016 before OPM does a refresh. By that time, SSA will have hired 75 ALJ's in FY 2014, 250 or so ALJ's in FY 2015, and probably another 75 or so in early FY 2016 all off this current Register (and by my guess, a total of about 400). A March 2016 refresh will permit OPM to allow (1) some who provided very limited GAL's to change their minds and expand them; (2) allow those who scored below 60 to try again and bump their number up [which I highly recommend]; and (3) allow new blood to enter the register. This also helps SSA -- who according to what I have experienced, really does not want to interview anyone with a score lower than 60 [again that's my experience/guess]. So, for those of you with very limited GAL's, lower scores, or on the outside looking in, hang in there till early 2016 - or so. And as you will see repeated quite often in many threads, this is a marathon, not a sprint. HT
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2014 13:41:06 GMT -5
Well, I took over a retiring Social Security attorney's practice in May 2013 and we're under contract as partners until December 31, 2016- so I'm certainly in no rush.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 5, 2014 10:08:31 GMT -5
I keep hearing the magic number of 500 ALJs being hired and I assume that this figure covers 2015 and 2016. This number keeps coming from ALJs themselves who seem to have some kind of inside scoop. Not sure. This leads me to believe that a refresh will occur by Fall 2015. Makes sense that a fatter register would lead to better hires. I speak with great self interest, of course.
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Post by luckylady2 on Dec 5, 2014 10:40:31 GMT -5
Yeah - you've mentioned the 500 number before. Our best info from the insiders on the board is 250. Where are you getting 500? Please share!!
That would mean, if our guesstimate that the size of the register at 900-1200 folks is right, everyone currently on the register would have up to a 50% chance of being hired! Wow!
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Post by funkyodar on Dec 5, 2014 11:08:46 GMT -5
Based on rumors, some really hopeful apirational comments by the powers that be, the email from OCALJ yesterday and the great intel from Jerseymom (who is an impeccable source)...here is my best guesstimations, speculations and the like about future alj hiring.
2nd Cert: They will hire as close to 30 as they can for the first class starting in January. I had previosuly been told the 2nd cert would also be used for a March hire and, depending on the number and quality of those left on the certs, and the locales they still need to fill, maybe a third hiring around May from this second cert.
3rd Cert: If the second cert holdovers from the January and March classes aren't enough, Cert 3 could be pulled for start dates in May. That would be new folks and holdovers from Cert 2. If they don't need to pull a third by then, then the Third would come after that round. They are most definitely proceeding with the hopes of hiring 250 thru fiscal 2015. So it is a great time to be on the register.
Locales: Judge Bice's email noted the plan to convert some unused space in hearing offices to video only rooms. That would allow more Judges to be in existing HOs and flexibility in the 2 judges per hearing room model. So, logically, more cities would now have space for new judges. It has also been mentioned that there are ongoing negotiations to allow judges that choose to do so to take writer offices. If that comes to fruition, it would seem to me to open many opportunities for existing judges who agreed to take smaller digs to transfer to their preferred locales. Thus opening a ton more slots for new hires. One of the by products of the move to centralized writing is most hearing offices have at least a few vacant writer offices that could be used by Judges. I have also heard that with VPN and more video hearings, they are considering placing Judges in non traditional locales. Like if there is room at some DO for a judge and small staff, put one there. Got office space at a remote site? Put a judge there. They are looking at all options.
500: I too have heard the goal is to ultimately increase the corp by 500. Now, that would actually mean hiring more than 500 because they need to hire about 100 a year just to keep up with atrrition. So, to increase the corp by 500, that means hella hiring and great news for any on the reg. Likley means a refresh in 2016. But....while I feel very confident the 250 or close to it will happen this fiscal, the 500 total number increase is more aspirational and highly dependent on this shiny new Congress giving up the funds. Something has me a little queasy about that happening...
All speculataion, guesses and rumors. But, all in all, I think anyone on this reg has the best shot of landing a gig in years.
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Post by Gaidin on Dec 5, 2014 11:20:16 GMT -5
And that ladies and gentlemen is why we all need a little more Funk in our lives.
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Post by gary on Dec 5, 2014 11:30:28 GMT -5
Funky's always got great intel, and always clearly sets forth what's solid, what's speculative, and in this case what's aspirational.
Working with the aspirational 500 for a moment, if 250 per year is as aggressive as they can or want to be, each year at that level they would get a net increase of 150. They could get to the 500 increase with 250 FY2015, 250 FY2016, and 250 FY2017, and then hire 150 FY2018.
I doubt that these numbers will conform exactly to reality, but it shows how many they'd like to be hiring.
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