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Post by djones1975 on May 6, 2015 14:52:28 GMT -5
I know this is exactly what no one who is hoping to get a job offer is thinking about, but . . . .
Any guesses at when they will start the process for new applicants?
Looks like it has been a while, but it also looks like the pool of qualified people might be deep enough that they will not need new applicants.
Any thoughts appreciated.
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Post by gary on May 6, 2015 15:16:51 GMT -5
I know this is exactly what no one who is hoping to get a job offer is thinking about, but . . . . Any guesses at when they will start the process for new applicants? Looks like it has been a while, but it also looks like the pool of qualified people might be deep enough that they will not need new applicants. Any thoughts appreciated. Hi djones1975. This is actually a topic that gets kicked around on this Board from time to time. There are two ways OPM could start the process for new applicants. 1. They could create a whole new register, which would mean everyone currently on the register would have to reapply. This is unlikely anytime soon. The current register was established something like 14 months ago following a year long application, testing, and grading process. I am unaware of any reason OPM at this point would want to start over from scratch. 2. They could refresh the register. This would allow new applicants to go through the process and put the successful applicants on the register with those of us still on it at that time. This is most likely the way OPM will proceed when they decide they need more candidates on the register. But your question is when do we think this will happen. Opinions vary. You may be able to find some of the past discussions of the topic using the search function. The factors that get discussed include the present rate of SSA hiring, guesses as to the size of the initial register, and how long it is thought it will be before OPM will no longer be able to supply SSA with enough candidates to have a top 3 in SSA's least popular locations (which implicates the GALs of those on the register). That may sound like me ducking your question, but I just wanted you to be aware of the complexity involved. My own best guess would be maybe they will start the process early next fiscal year to try to stay ahead of SSA's need for candidates. That is just a guess, and you will find greatly varying opinions on this subject among those on the Board.
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Post by Gaidin on May 6, 2015 16:10:22 GMT -5
What Gary said.
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Post by saaao on May 6, 2015 16:20:10 GMT -5
I know this is exactly what no one who is hoping to get a job offer is thinking about, but . . . . Any guesses at when they will start the process for new applicants? Looks like it has been a while, but it also looks like the pool of qualified people might be deep enough that they will not need new applicants. Any thoughts appreciated. Hi djones1975. This is actually a topic that gets kicked around on this Board from time to time. There are two ways OPM could start the process for new applicants. 1. They could create a whole new register, which would mean everyone currently on the register would have to reapply. This is unlikely anytime soon. The current register was established something like 14 months ago following a year long application, testing, and grading process. I am unaware of any reason OPM at this point would want to start over from scratch. 2. They could refresh the register. This would allow new applicants to go through the process and put the successful applicants on the register with those of us still on it at that time. This is most likely the way OPM will proceed when they decide they need more candidates on the register. But your question is when do we think this will happen. Opinions vary. You may be able to find some of the past discussions of the topic using the search function. The factors that get discussed include the present rate of SSA hiring, guesses as to the size of the initial register, and how long it is thought it will be before OPM will no longer be able to supply SSA with enough candidates to have a top 3 in SSA's least popular locations (which implicates the GALs of those on the register). That may sound like me ducking your question, but I just wanted you to be aware of the complexity involved. My own best guess would be maybe they will start the process early next fiscal year to try to stay ahead of SSA's need for candidates. That is just a guess, and you will find greatly varying opinions on this subject among those on the Board. I would agree that would be the smart approach. However OPM has other fish to fry too (it should be another banner year for federal retirements), and a shrinking staff and budget to do it with. I notice that we got a very small response to polling this time around, despite there being around 60 cities in play. Even accounting for people who have lost interest in following the process, it really seems like OPM drastically cut the number of candidates it referred. I think they are trying to avoid opening up testing for as long as possible. Between this FY and next FY SSA wants 500 ALJs, and next FY Medicare wants ~115. After that SSA will need to hire about 50-100 a year to keep up with retirement attrition. A refresh is going to have to happen within the next two to three years, but I think we will see OPM drag it out as long as they can get away with.
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Post by ba on May 6, 2015 16:24:20 GMT -5
I realize this isn't what the OP asked, but could OPM do a refresh of the GALs of existing people on the register and not open up the register to new candidates at the same time (to avoid the expense of additional testing)?
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Post by prescient on May 6, 2015 16:33:55 GMT -5
I realize this isn't what the OP asked, but could OPM do a refresh of the GALs of existing people on the register and not open up the register to new candidates at the same time (to avoid the expense of additional testing)? This happened once near the end of the last register. My understanding is that this was highly unusual
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Post by gary on May 6, 2015 16:36:04 GMT -5
I realize this isn't what the OP asked, but could OPM do a refresh of the GALs of existing people on the register and not open up the register to new candidates at the same time (to avoid the expense of additional testing)? They could and they have on one occasion done so. I don't know if they got enough mileage out of the move for them to do it again. If I were them though I'd think it worth trying.
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Post by JudgeRatty on May 6, 2015 17:28:45 GMT -5
I would add that from this new register hiring only just started in August 2014. Given that it has only been 9 months since the first hiring off this register, I think we have a long way to go yet before OPM starts all over. I agree with those above that the more likely event will be a refresh and even that may be a while off. Even if they started the refresh process in 2016, it will take a while for that to get to the point there are more people on the register. It took over a year to get a register in place so I imagine it would be beneficial to start the refresh process about a year prior to when they think the register will be exhausted. Since there is no way to know how deep the register goes (although many learned folks have provided excellent guesses of 800-900 or so), it is hard to say when this may happen. If they hire 500 (250 this fiscal and 250 next), and the register is indeed only 8-900, I can see starting sometime late 2016 to do a refresh. But if the register is much larger, that will delay a refresh IF there are viable people on the register. By viable, I mean people who have GALs in cities that they will hire. If there are a bunch of people with only DC or other popular places, they are not really viable since those cities rarely hire right from the register. It happens, but it isn't the norm. Best thing to do djones1975 is to watch this board, and to set an alert on USAJobs so you get an email as soon as it posts. Good luck!
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Post by mamaru on May 6, 2015 17:36:59 GMT -5
Let's not forget to factor in the unknown number of pending appeals which, when resolved, could result in additional people from this round being added to the register after additional testing.
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Post by gary on May 6, 2015 18:09:10 GMT -5
See what I meant, djones1975, about there being varying views? All you can do is consider everyone's arguments and come to your own view on the subject, keeping in mind that everyone including you may be wrong.
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Post by hopefalj on May 6, 2015 18:40:45 GMT -5
Let's not forget to factor in the unknown number of pending appeals which, when resolved, could result in additional people from this round being added to the register after additional testing. Although refreshing the register would likely reduce the number of pending appeals, and this OPM's workload, substantially... Put me in the camp that thinks a refresh happens by early spring 2016. Of course, that's bad news for anyone hoping for a refresh that soon since my guesses tend to be completely wrong.
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Post by luckylady2 on May 6, 2015 19:05:36 GMT -5
Gosh - I was sure gary was going to respond "Today."
Sorry - that's a not-so-inside joke about gary's responses on the "When will the phone calls start" polls.
Welcome to the Board, DJones 1975! You should consider yourself lucky to have found it and all the information here BEFORE you apply. Many of us would have done things slightly differently on our applications if we had. Definitely read the FAQ's at the top of the General Board - they're very helpful.
If you're really into history, you can do a couple of searches and find out about how the whole process was stopped for several years by litigation over the way in which the application process had been conducted, how this is the first Register put together post-that litigation, and how the process by which hires are made from the Register has also changed. So we're in new territory on a lot of fronts. You'll see references to OPM and SSA still working things out between them, or OPM taking more time than anticipated to produce certs. You might also notice references to tons of people being shed at each stage of the vetting process for this Register, many of whom have appealed, and virtually none of the appeals have been resolved yet.
Sooo there's a lot of pent-up demand in the system, a new Register of unknown size from which hiring has being going on for less than a year. Oh, yeah, AND all the rules have changed. My personal SWAG is that it will be quite a while before OPM closes this Register and solicits applications for a new one. The refresh route is much more likely, but the parameters of those have varied over the years, so it's hard to say whether that would benefit any new applicants.
Meanwhile, enjoy the camaraderie of the Board as we all wait to see what happens next.
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Post by almostheaven on May 7, 2015 1:47:28 GMT -5
I realize this isn't what the OP asked, but could OPM do a refresh of the GALs of existing people on the register and not open up the register to new candidates at the same time (to avoid the expense of additional testing)? They could and they have on one occasion done so. I don't know if they got enough mileage out of the move for them to do it again. If I were them though I'd think it worth trying. And if there we could expand our GAL, I for one would open my choices. That is one of several reasons I wish I had found this board earlier in my venture through this process, as I would have had a larger GAL. plus time has shifted options for me, such as a family member moving to a location not on my original list. I am sure this would apply to others as well, and provide a wider list vs opening the register fully.
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Post by 71stretch on May 7, 2015 3:25:14 GMT -5
Welcome to the Board, DJones 1975! You should consider yourself lucky to have found it and all the information here BEFORE you apply. Many of us would have done things slightly differently on our applications if we had. Definitely read the FAQ's at the top of the General Board - they're very helpful. ...... The refresh route is much more likely, but the parameters of those have varied over the years, so it's hard to say whether that would benefit any new applicants. I think a refresh will happen, but not soon. I don't know what you mean by the parameters of a refresh varying so that it's hard to say whether it would benefit any new applicants. A refresh ALWAYS benefits the new applicants who pass the evaluation process and get on the Register. If their scores are good and their GALs are consistent with what ODAR's needs are, it's no different to them whether the register is new or refreshed. There are many, many people working as ALJs right now who came on the register in the Nov 2009 refresh, which was completed in May 2010, and were hired from 2010 through early 2014, which I think is when the last hire under the old register was done-- the exact date doesn't matter. So, refreshes DO matter to new applicants.... a lot.
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Post by djones1975 on May 7, 2015 5:15:02 GMT -5
Thanks for all the answers.
Sounds like at best, it will be a year to two years. Sounds like at worst (for me; which is really what's important, right), it could be multiple years (3+). I assume I am understanding correctly. They could open up for past applicants to refresh the current pool, without opening up for new applicants.
Good luck to everyone. Hard to think about what will be going on 3+ years from now, but I will go and try and put an alert on the job site.
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Post by moopigsdad on May 7, 2015 6:58:40 GMT -5
Djones1975 I wouldn't be so quick to think it will be two or more years prior to a refresh. I have to think one will occur sometime next fiscal year, more than likely the second or third quarter of the next fiscal year (January 2016 - June 2016). The candidates on this Register understand it takes a year or so to go through the testing process, so OPM needs to factor that in when it will decide to open up the Register for a refresh. So, as suggested above, I would set up an alert on USAJobs as well as watch this Board once a week to see when the refresh occurs. In the meantime, read some older posts and get to know how the process works and what you should do when it opens up again. It never hurts to be forewarned about how to prepared for a refresh of the Register. Good luck!
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Post by mikeinthehills on May 7, 2015 8:19:35 GMT -5
On the issue of when a refresh will occur, I have looked at what we know about the size of this register, GAL’s and hires to date. The numbers below assume that the participation rate on this board is very high, which I think is a fair assumption. This is what we know (approximately):
-- The register is approximately 800 to 900 people.
-- The first certs included somewhere in the range of 160 to 180 candidates. 70 were hired, leaving 90 to 110 available.
-- The second certs added 100 to 120 candidates to the pool, bring the pool to 190 to 230 candidates. Approximately 90 were hired on the second certs, leaving 100 to 130 candidates available.
The third certs added only 20 potential new candidates, although the certs totaled 62 cities, with approximately 20 cities certed for the first time. The third certs increased the pool to 120 to 150. There have been 20 hires to date, leaving 100 to 130 candidates for the June hires. If 45 are hired from this pool for June, this reduces the candidate pool to 55 to 85 before the next set of certs are pulled.
This raises an issue concerning the next refresh. The current certs cover in excess of 1/3 of all ODAR offices, and these certs added only 20 to the pool of potential hires. That’s very surprising to me and I’ll bet SSA too. (it may explain why the emails were so late in arriving and only 20 were hired for May) With 800 to 900 on the register, and at most 320 interviewed, where are all the candidates that still need to be interviewed? My guess is that we have a large percentage of candidates with very limited GAL’s in the most popular cities. That’s a problem if you plan to hire 90 ALJ’s after the June hire this fiscal year and another 250 ALJ’s next fiscal year. If the next certs draw a similar number of new candidates to be interviewed, SSA is going to have a hard time meeting its hiring goals.
How do OPM and SSA address this problem? Allow candidates to reconsider their GAL? Pull certs for the more popular cities? Do a refresh? It doesn’t appear to me that SSA can just continue on in the fashion they have to date through another 350 to 400 hires.
WAG's, SWAG's and considered opinions anyone?
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Post by redryder on May 7, 2015 8:23:24 GMT -5
While OPM does the actual testing of candidates and pulling of list of eligible candidates for agencies looking to hire, it is not the only player who decides when to reopen the testing process. The agencies have input as well. For example, if ODAR was trying to fill a slot, has requested several certificates for that slot and keeps getting the same names (none of which ODAR finds acceptable), ODAR will start agitating for OPM to take action. It could be the allowing persons with scores to expand their GALs or opening up the testing process.
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Post by ba on May 7, 2015 8:41:48 GMT -5
They could and they have on one occasion done so. I don't know if they got enough mileage out of the move for them to do it again. If I were them though I'd think it worth trying. And if there we could expand our GAL, I for one would open my choices. That is one of several reasons I wish I had found this board earlier in my venture through this process, as I would have had a larger GAL. plus time has shifted options for me, such as a family member moving to a location not on my original list. I am sure this would apply to others as well, and provide a wider list vs opening the register fully. Amen sister. Amen.
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Post by Gaidin on May 7, 2015 9:03:32 GMT -5
I believe that limited GALs are the single biggest reason that this register may be enhanced in some way. The fastest and cheapest way to get a bump in the register would be to allow applicants to reset their GAL. This could be done in part as a response to the fact that ODAR is opening new offices since the register was created and has also eliminated the office in Savannah. I suspect that this would make at most 100 candidates reachable who are not currently reachable. That is my WAG and nothing more. That might be enough to get through FY2015/2016 before you need to refresh. However, if OMHA does in fact get their 100+ additional ALJs then the register will need a refresh almost immediately.
If you look at the poll about cities running dry you will see that Harlingen, Fargo, and McAlester have 10 people with those locales on their GAL. I would be willing to bet a dollar that at least 7 of those are the exact same people on all 3. Even if we are only getting 60% of the people with those cities on their GAL voting the number only goes up to 14 and I would still bet on 11 of them being the same people.
I believe that OPM probably has a better sense of how to conduct the testing and could shorten the time frame a bit but I would still expect a refresh to take between 8 months to a year to add a new name to the register.
A new register entirely is not a reasonable scenario at this point.
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