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Post by Mjǿlner on Aug 11, 2016 16:48:10 GMT -5
I've thought that rolling grading would make perfect sense; however, I understand that sense has .little to do with many things in the government and I doubt that OPM would break with past practices solely to move the process along a little faster. Given the fact that 23 weeks has been scheduled for DC testing/interviews, the need to get going on schedule is understandable; however, there is no need, at least the way that I understand the process, for them to decide the entire group that will move on to DC, before they start the actual DC testing and interviews. I disagreeumptions which are all WAGs are that 5,000 people made it to online testing, and that 2,300 can be processed during the DC testing. Thus the online testing component is designed to find the top 46% of the Class of 2016.
For example, suppose the hard work working folks at OPM have only graded 2,000 of the approximately 5,000 (WAG) online tests. As the beginning of DC testing is bearing down on us, they could easily decide who are the highest scoring members of the first 2,000 and if they can process 100 (WAG) people a week, schedule the first five or six weeks, with those who are in the top of the 2,000 that have been graded. Those in the top 20% of this group are virtually certain to be in the group that would would be in the top 46% all the test takers, which is about the number that I guess is going to have to move on to DC to fill up 23 weeks.
It is very unlikely that the other 3,000 tests are going to contain applicants that are that much different than the first 2,000. Finding the very top testers who will move on should not be that hard. Thus DC testing can proceed as scheduled, the graders can continue plowing through the other 3,000 tests, eventually they can decide where the cut off point will be and all will still keep pace with the timeline announced in congressional testimony.
Unfortunately, the corollary to this is that it should also be possible to deselect some of the test takers who have scores that rank in the bottom 20% to 30%, and deselect them, before all of the tests have been graded.
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Post by Thru Hiker on Aug 11, 2016 17:49:26 GMT -5
* * * I think FOASH emails are slow because OPM is terrified of making a mistake and getting sued. Again. an unnoticed legal defect in the notice would slow things, temporarily, until OPM's legal counsel could give an opinion and a fix gets done. maybe there's legal wrangling over such a fix and who is going to pay for it, with contractors involved. oh, there i go, breaking rule 1, sorry, had a bad day at the office today. in my State, one of our public benefits systems is so miserably overdue on decisions on benefit applications, it's criminal. a very lucrative contract to a contractor is involved, that the contractor benefits from the constant flow of work because of SNAFUs. only reason legal aid agency hasn't filed a class action is because they know the legislature will punish them in the budget. but i digress....
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odarn
New Member
Posts: 9
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Post by odarn on Aug 11, 2016 18:19:44 GMT -5
* * * I think FOASH emails are slow because OPM is terrified of making a mistake and getting sued. Again. an unnoticed legal defect in the notice would slow things, temporarily, until OPM's legal counsel could give an opinion and a fix gets done. maybe there's legal wrangling over such a fix and who is going to pay for it, with contractors involved. oh, there i go, breaking rule 1, sorry, had a bad day at the office today. in my State, one of our public benefits systems is so miserably overdue on decisions on benefit applications, it's criminal. a very lucrative contract to a contractor is involved, that the contractor benefits from the constant flow of work because of SNAFUs. only reason legal aid agency hasn't filed a class action is because they know the legislature will punish them in the budget. but i digress.... This makes the most sense to me.
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DC Testing
Aug 11, 2016 19:41:13 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by christina on Aug 11, 2016 19:41:13 GMT -5
Legal aid may be prohibited from class actions too. I think due to congressional tactic a long tine ago.
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Post by katniss on Aug 11, 2016 19:41:48 GMT -5
I don't think the FOASHs are done. I know five people that also applied, and none of us got a FOASH. Statistically speaking, it seems very unlikely that all of us made it to the DC round. My guess is that there is a minimum score for the SJT and they did an initial cut of those that did not meet it, and more FOASHs will come as they score the writing and experience assessments.
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Post by Thru Hiker on Aug 11, 2016 19:42:16 GMT -5
Legal aid may be prohibited from class actions too. I think due to congressional tactic a long tine ago. oh yes, i forgot about that, you are right....
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Post by Thru Hiker on Aug 11, 2016 19:48:04 GMT -5
I think they are bringing a larger first batch, but based on the fact that they can only squeeze x amount into testing area, the weeks of testing will be extended to accommodate the value of x applicants per week, and that is my formula, although x is still a variable, so i have not solved for x. to solve this you just need to substitute SB for x
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Post by wacokid on Aug 11, 2016 19:58:04 GMT -5
Rolling grading and notifications make no sense to me. If they have a set cut off score, OPM could potentially end up with 4000 persons coming to DC. No way they do that. In the thread I linked to on the prior page, funkyodar makes a convincing case to me that the cutoff is based on the top x number of applicants, not all those above X score. OPM has the testing scheduled, they know their testing capacity and they are going to bring that many to DC. They have to grade all of the online component before they know who the higher subgroup is and who to invite. We started with 5500 applicants and between 50 and 160 are on this board. There could have been a substantial FOASH emails sent and we just don't know it. Granted, it is really odd that we don't have more than 4 or so that we know about.
I agree with the thoughts that something happened that made them stop rather than the rolling grading/notices. Even if it were rolling grading/notices, we should have started seeing FOASH emails way way earlier than this week. I think there was some premature FOASHing and we will see invites the week of 29 August. To expound a little on the bolded portion, I agree, and would add that it is likely that the percentage of people who post or otherwise share adverse news to this board is lower, and perhaps far lower, than the overall percentage of applicants who receive such information. The reason is that the self-selected group of people who take the initiative to post on this board (or share information to the board) are very likely not a representative sample of all applicants. They likely possess better overall information about the application process; have a higher level of initative; and are generally more altruistic and/or "community"-focused (particularly applicants who post adverse information about themselves solely for the good of anonymous others).
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Post by bayou on Aug 11, 2016 20:10:02 GMT -5
In the spirit of discussion, not argument, I ask: if they are using rolling grading and sending notifications before grading all of them, why did they just start going out and why only a very few? Even if they waited until they graded 2000 and are only taking the for sure top scorers and FOASHing the for sure low scorers, why do we only know about 4 or 5 FOASHs and 0 invites? Good theory but the evidence doesn't fit.
If they are using a cut off score for the SJT, why the long wait and why only 4 or 5? The SJT should have been graded instantly.
I still think it was just a mistake that a few were sent by accident. Somebody pressed the wrong button.
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Post by weisstho on Aug 11, 2016 20:22:28 GMT -5
This cast of characters pressing the wrong button? Could be.
But allow me to argue against rolling notifications: I can imagine the conversation in OPM "do we make a first round notification, or just hold off giving any notice until we get this whole thing done?" And the Boss says: "let's exercise a modest amount of caution and wait on the notices until we finish the entire grading, even though we are not grading Writing where the SJT is below a certain number." "OK Boss. We'll hold off on sending notices."
But, I wasn't in the room.
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Post by Mjǿlner on Aug 11, 2016 20:29:22 GMT -5
Bayou I agree with you. I don't think that are likely to release scores incrementally. I just believe that theoretically this could be done and that it might make sense to do it if they really want to keep this train on schedule. The slow release of FOASHs during 2016 may go down as one of the giant mysteries in the annals of ALJ history. It could be that someone inadvertently hit send to a few candidates although I find this hard to believe. I think that what we are seeing is OPM's version of launching wing attack plan "R". It is only a matter of time till the OPM doomsday machine rears its head.
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Post by DogLady on Aug 11, 2016 20:39:15 GMT -5
I just had an image in my mind of people from OPM and/or the contractor reading this thread and laughing hysterically at our wild speculation (which I am as guilty of as the next person). And then muttering things like, "can you believe this? Rolling grading ... premature FOASHing ..." as they laugh and laugh.
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Post by Lawesome on Aug 11, 2016 20:39:21 GMT -5
Do you think these might have been people whose answers did not meet the minimum qualifications (portion not completed sufficiently, people who had computer issues, etc.)? Those would be relatively easy to separate from the completed tests, and you would think there would not be many of them. Just a random thought i wanted to throw out
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Post by nestle on Aug 11, 2016 20:54:01 GMT -5
I just had an image in my mind of people from OPM and/or the contractor reading this thread and laughing hysterically at our wild speculation (which I am as guilty of as the next person). And then muttering things like, "can you believe this? Rolling grading ... premature FOASHing ..." as they laugh and laugh. I agree completely. I have written for a number of appeals judges, and I have consistently been amused by 1) how the media COMPLETELY flubs what a given opinion did and 2) how wildly wrong the folks interpreted the opinion in the comment sections, especially as it applied to the intents and motivations of the various judges. So. Anywho. At least this gives us something to do while we wait.
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Post by judgymcjudgypants on Aug 11, 2016 21:18:46 GMT -5
Or, the few FOASH emails that have gone out included errors. It's not like we haven't already seen email errors in the 2016 process.
Side note: From all the likes received - apparently, a whole bunch of us hated algebra class!
J
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Post by hopingforalj on Aug 11, 2016 21:28:20 GMT -5
Remember, "eventually all things merge into one and a river runs through it" Tomor the 2015 second chance club is done training, 6 weeks has passed since closing date just like in 2013 when the axe fell, and its Friday, best day for opm to deliver the hammer, and all things merge into one and a river runs through it, good luck to all i think tomor is the day.
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Post by sophie22 on Aug 11, 2016 21:28:54 GMT -5
I just had an image in my mind of people from OPM and/or the contractor reading this thread and laughing hysterically at our wild speculation (which I am as guilty of as the next person). And then muttering things like, "can you believe this? Rolling grading ... premature FOASHing ..." as they laugh and laugh. I hope they at least appreciate our new Acronym! Lol! 2016 will be known as the year of the premature FOASH.
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Post by Ready-Now! on Aug 11, 2016 21:54:27 GMT -5
in the last dc testing they were able to test more than 25 per day.
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Post by Thru Hiker on Aug 11, 2016 22:02:08 GMT -5
In the spirit of discussion, not argument, I ask: . . . why did they just start going out and why only a very few? Even if they waited until they graded 2000 and are only taking the for sure top scorers and FOASHing the for sure low scorers, why do we only know about 4 or 5 FOASHs and 0 invites?. . . . because this is the logic based measurement test (LBMT). don't you see the logic yet?
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Post by Thru Hiker on Aug 11, 2016 22:06:13 GMT -5
Bayou I agree with you. I don't think that are likely to release scores incrementally. I just believe that theoretically this could be done and that it might make sense to do it if they really want to keep this train on schedule. The slow release of FOASHs during 2016 may go down as one of the giant mysteries in the annals of ALJ history. It could be that someone inadvertently hit send to a few candidates although I find this hard to believe. I think that what we are seeing is OPM's version of launching wing attack plan "R". It is only a matter of time till the OPM doomsday machine rears its head. i knew it, i could just sense the invasion of my precious bodily fluids. or maybe it was that beer last night...
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