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Post by numbersix on May 7, 2013 18:41:44 GMT -5
Someone posted in the "application status" thread that there were 4,300 plus applicants this year. Wow...It was posted in another thread ("the unofficial ALJ exam timeline") that only the first 900 applicants were accepted in 2009. Huge difference! Does anyone have information on how many people made the first cut this year? And/or any information/speculation on when we will hear if we made it to the Proctored Component?
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2013 18:53:44 GMT -5
Someone posted in the "application status" thread that there were 4,300 plus applicants this year. Wow...It was posted in another thread ("the unofficial ALJ exam timeline") that only the first 900 applicants were accepted in 2009. Huge difference! Does anyone have information on how many people made the first cut this year? And/or any information/speculation on when we will here if we made it to the Proctored Component? I do not know how much credence to give the 4300 but from the poll in the other section and the "percentage in and out" thread it looks like the majority of the folks made the cut. There are many highly qualified folks that were sidelined on technical grounds and they are vocal about it on this board but I venture to say that there is a silent majority that got through to the second phase. The online phase will be a discriminator for a lot of us. Lets face it, the second phase was designed with the purpose in mind to be able to have maximum flexibility on how many people they let through to the last three phases. They probably already have the numbers lined up and from previous experience know how many people to let through in each phase.
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Post by 71stretch on May 7, 2013 22:40:19 GMT -5
Both those figures are incorrect. The 4300 figure was posted by someone who asked before the deadline; in 2009, they planned to take 1100 and as many beyond that that came in by midnight on the day the 1100th was filed. We don't know for sure how many came in in the 48 hours applications were open.
There's no way to know how many made in to round two, we only have about 35 percent representation here.
I'd think it will be a while before we hear about phase three. The SJT can be scored fairly easily, but the other two components will take longer. So, we just go on with our lives in the meantime.
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Post by zebra51 on May 8, 2013 9:50:33 GMT -5
My speculation is that OPM has a number in mind for proceeding to the next phase.
Me picking a number at random (ie I am not guessing this is OPMs number), say 1000. I speculate that OPM will determine the "within the range for the higher-scored sub-group of all the eligible applicants" much the way the Navy determined enlisted advancement way back when I was on active duty (just on a much larger scale).
Speculating: OPM will put all the scores in numerical order from highest to lowest. Determine the score of the 1000th person. And that score (say 49 for example sake) will be the cut off for the "higher-scored sub-group". At that point every one with a 49 or higher moves to the next phase. This would include applicants with the same score on the highest to lowest list below the 1000th person (So 1001-10xx would also be included if they also had a 49).
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Post by robespierre on May 8, 2013 11:44:33 GMT -5
My speculation is that OPM has a number in mind for proceeding to the next phase. Me picking a number at random (ie I am not guessing this is OPMs number), say 1000. I speculate that OPM will determine the "within the range for the higher-scored sub-group of all the eligible applicants" much the way the Navy determined enlisted advancement way back when I was on active duty (just on a much larger scale). Speculating: OPM will put all the scores in numerical order from highest to lowest. Determine the score of the 1000th person. And that score (say 49 for example sake) will be the cut off for the "higher-scored sub-group". At that point every one with a 49 or higher moves to the next phase. This would include applicants with the same score on the highest to lowest list below the 1000th person (So 1001-10xx would also be included if they also had a 49). Not only do I agree with this, but I think (based on nothing but hunch) that your "random" number of 1,000 will turn out to be about right. Seems like a good size for a register that will last multiple years.
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Post by moopigsdad on May 8, 2013 11:54:53 GMT -5
I don't think this is speculation. It is exactly what is stated in the acknowledgment e-mail:"[...] if the score for your performance on the Situational Judgment Test, Writing Sample, and Experience Assessment is within the range for the higher-scored sub-group of all the eligible applicants, you will be invited to participate in the Written Demonstration and the Logic-Based Measurement Test." Clearly, there will be a cutoff mark; they aren't bringing 3,000 people to D.C. There is no doubt 3000 people are not going to make the cut for the next part, it is propbably closer to 1500 or less. Not everyone who actually makes it to the next step will be placed on the ALJ register. You still have to score well enough on the next step of the process to be placed on the ALJ register. Lastly, please realize OPM is not bringing anyone to Washington, DC at their expense, if you are lucky enough to make it to the next stage of the process you will be paying your own way there.
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Post by workdrone on May 8, 2013 12:58:28 GMT -5
I wonder what the attrition rate is for people who get to the WD/SI stage and then don't show up because they don't want to pay for the flight/hotel. That has to be a $800-$1000 proposition for some applicants. I have mentored many ALJ candidates in real life since 2007. Travel costs to DC was never an issue to any of them. In fact, everyone I knew was very happy to have gotten that far and highly motivated to go there for WD/SI.
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Post by 71stretch on May 8, 2013 13:13:50 GMT -5
Actually, they sometimes on the same day, if not that, successive days. I think the job announcement this time actually discussed that issue, and says they would be on the same day.
OPM isn't paying for YOUR travel, but they are paying for the travel of those conducting the SIs, and the costs of administering/proctoring the WD.
I went on Priceline and got a really good hotel deal at a VERY nice hotel, it was way less than 200 a night. And during the Cherry Blossom Festival, to boot.
I, too, don't think the cost of the travel deters anyone from proceeding. They used to offer the WDs and SIs in at least three cities, (I was originally set in San Francisco, but had to reset, and all the resets went to DC). now everything is in DC.
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Post by moopigsdad on May 8, 2013 13:24:54 GMT -5
Actually, they sometimes on the same day, if not that, successive days. I think the job announcement this time actually discussed that issue, and says they would be on the same day. OPM isn't paying for YOUR travel, but they are paying for the travel of those conducting the SIs, and the costs of administering/proctoring the WD. I agree the anouncement stated the WD and LBMT would be scheduled the same day. While it is not clear, in the announcement I don't think everyone will be invited to take the SI, but will depend upon your scoring on the WD and LBMT. If that is the case, you may need to come back to Washington, DC for a second time when invited for the SI. It would make sense because I can't see them doing an SI for all 1500 or less participants of the WD and LBMT. Otherwise, it would take weeks to interview everyone, even if there were 30 panels doing the interviews. I doubt there will be 30 panels doing interviews. Just my best guess depending on what I read in the announcement and using common sense.
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Post by hopefalj on May 8, 2013 14:00:42 GMT -5
Actually, they sometimes on the same day, if not that, successive days. I think the job announcement this time actually discussed that issue, and says they would be on the same day. OPM isn't paying for YOUR travel, but they are paying for the travel of those conducting the SIs, and the costs of administering/proctoring the WD. I agree the anouncement stated the WD and LBMT would be scheduled the same day. While it is not clear, in the announcement I don't think everyone will be invited to take the SI, but will depend upon your scoring on the WD and LBMT. If that is the case, you may need to come back to Washington, DC for a second time when invited for the SI. It would make sense because I can't see them doing an SI for all 1500 or less participants of the WD and LBMT. Otherwise, it would take weeks to interview everyone, even if there were 30 panels doing the interviews. I doubt there will be 30 panels doing interviews. Just my best guess depending on what I read in the announcement and using common sense. Your reading of the announcement re: the proctored testing before the SI is how I read it. There will be cuts made at the current stage and after the written testing in DC before the SIs are conducted.
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Post by 71stretch on May 9, 2013 12:48:24 GMT -5
The announcement is not all that clear. All it says is: You must complete the WD and LBMT before participating in the Structured Interview.
In-person Component: Structured Interview (SI). If you are invited to participate in the SI, this part of the examination will be administered in an in-person panel interview environment.
There's nothing about having to get a certain score, unlike the earlier stages. The SI is timed, not long, and there are multiple panels. I don't think there will be anywhere near 1500 left at the WD stage, though I'm willing to be wrong.
The later parts of that portion of the announcement sound like they haven't been revised since the old system, as they refer only to the WD and SI, and not to the LBMT.
Perhaps OPM would give some clarification on this if asked.
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Post by ALJ Someday Maybe on May 9, 2013 14:21:14 GMT -5
Maybe they will get creative this time and do some of the SI by skype. ??
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Post by moopigsdad on May 9, 2013 14:26:44 GMT -5
The announcement is not all that clear. All it says is: You must complete the WD and LBMT before participating in the Structured Interview. In-person Component: Structured Interview (SI). If you are invited to participate in the SI, this part of the examination will be administered in an in-person panel interview environment. There's nothing about having to get a certain score, unlike the earlier stages. The SI is timed, not long, and there are multiple panels. I don't think there will be anywhere near 1500 left at the WD stage, though I'm willing to be wrong. The later parts of that portion of the announcement sound like they haven't been revised since the old system, as they refer only to the WD and SI, and not to the LBMT. Perhaps OPM would give some clarification on this if asked. I am sure those of us who make it to the next stage will get more information soon. Nobody knows for sure the possible number of applicants that will move on and see the SI, after the WD and LBMT. Everything is a guess at best. I assume it should be greater than 500, but less than 1500, but I cannot verify it one way or the other. However, I do agree that the instructions after the SI seem very similar to the instructions from last time. It is a waiting game at best to see what happens in the future. I am not goint to ask OPM, but wait and see what happens in the process. We will know within a reasonable amount of time for sure.
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Post by numbersix on May 10, 2013 6:46:56 GMT -5
Thanks to everyone for their insight on these issues. I think the 1000 to 1500 guesstimate is reasonable re those moving on to the proctorered portion. And ultimately a number around 500, no more than a 1000 for those moving on to the SI makes sense.
But, what is the consensus on the number of those apx 4300 who made it to the second phase? I get the idea that it is believe that most did - is that correct? Isn't it possible that OPM needed to cut it down to at least half, maybe 2000, in order to efficiently score so many applications? Thoughts?
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2013 6:57:55 GMT -5
aljdiscussion.proboards.com/thread/2081/total-number-applications?page=2#See thread above, another poster reports that when dealing with the help desk he was told that 5161 applications were sent for evaluation. Perhaps the numbers may be a little higher than we estimated. If SSA wants to hire say 300 ALJs in the next couple of years would a 600-900 person roster be in order? How big were the prior rosters?
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Post by 71stretch on May 10, 2013 8:42:04 GMT -5
I think the big hires we saw in 2010 and 2011 are a thing of the past. The first hire off the new register may be of good size, as there will have been a lot of retirements, etc. to replace, but after that, with budget constraints, no. There aren't going to be the number of new offices opening that there were, either.
The register will be bigger than 6-900, as it doesn't cost OPM more $$ to keep a larger register. After all the $$ they've spent developing this process, there's no reason not to have a 1000+ register.
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Post by zebra51 on May 10, 2013 10:17:45 GMT -5
There should be an increase in retirements beginning in 2014. The rules concerning how accrued sick leave applies to retirement calculations changes 1/1/14. A number of people are waiting on that change to retire.
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Post by hod on May 10, 2013 10:20:36 GMT -5
I am sure the register will be large. the larger it is the more viable it will be and the longer they can "mine" the eligible lawyers. It is the cert that tends to have numbers that relate to the hiring request. Generally SSA says that they plan to hire x number of people and OPM provides a list, the cert, that is approximately three times x. That being said, I heard a rumor that this current cert has all the members who were left on the last register. So maybe there are more than three times the anticipated hires on this particular cert.
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Post by 71stretch on May 10, 2013 13:43:02 GMT -5
The announcement is not all that clear. All it says is: You must complete the WD and LBMT before participating in the Structured Interview. In-person Component: Structured Interview (SI). If you are invited to participate in the SI, this part of the examination will be administered in an in-person panel interview environment. There's nothing about having to get a certain score, unlike the earlier stages. The SI is timed, not long, and there are multiple panels. I don't think there will be anywhere near 1500 left at the WD stage, though I'm willing to be wrong. The later parts of that portion of the announcement sound like they haven't been revised since the old system, as they refer only to the WD and SI, and not to the LBMT. Perhaps OPM would give some clarification on this if asked. Updating my own post: Here's what OPM says in the Acknowledgement email after the second phase is completed: As indicated in the current ALJ Job Opportunity Announcement, if the score for your performance on the Situational Judgment Test, Writing Sample, and Experience Assessment is within the range for the higher-scored sub-group of all the eligible applicants, you will be invited to participate in the Written Demonstration and the Logic-Based Measurement Test, which will be scheduled for the same day, and a Structured Interview, which will be scheduled for a separate day. You will be notified via email regarding when and where to report for the Written Demonstration and Logic-Based Measurement Test and for the Structured Interview. Your official Notice of Results and a notice describing your appeal rights will be issued after all stages of the examination have been completed.
This makes it pretty clear that there is no separate scoring of the WD and LBMT before one is invited to the SI, as those invitations all come at once. It doesn't make it entirely clear that the "separate day" for the SI is the day after the WD/LBMT, but one can hope that's the case. It's a stressful two days, based on prior experience (without the LBMT) but it's doable.
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Post by dreamer on May 10, 2013 19:18:03 GMT -5
Does anyone know how long it will take to hear if we made it to the next round?
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