NOR Speculation

[zebra51]

So I was looking over old polls last week and saw there were a number that concerned individuals NORS. What they got, Whos left with and their NORS, GALS for Scores over 70, Scores for the last cert, Scores below 60, High score on xx Cert, etc, etc, etc,. One common thing I noted over all the polls was that the scores seemed to range from 40s to the 90s with 65-75 being what would appear at the peak of a bell curve. And then yesterday it hit me, the scores on this upcoming register are most likely not going to have that kind of range.

Here is my thinking. All the past registers were from an opening that lasted around 36 hours and had small number of apps as compared to this opening. So you have around 1200+/- applying and 900+/- making the register. That works out to the top 75% of those applying (and their scores) making the register. The upcoming register was open long enough to get 5000+/- applying, say 4000+/- making it to phase II, and 1200+/- making it to phase III. That works out to around the top 25% of those applying (and their scores) making it to the register. Additionally, the cut to phase III eliminated lower scores. So if you think about a bell curve the 25% remaining are all distributed on that fairly steep down slope.

My speculation. Those remaining and going to DC do not have the wide diverse range of scores that the past folks going to DC had and will not come out of DC with that wide range of scores (40-90). Guesstimations, the range of current remaining scores (correcting for if they were the finals) are more like 70-90 with the heaviest concentration in the 70-80 range.

What does it all mean(speculation)?
1. The final register is not going to have a huge score divergence as in the past.
2. DC scores are going to be very important because this is where the divergences in individual NORS are going to made.
3. Low differences in NORS are going to give some pluses to the Vets.
4. Wide GALS are going to be favored because when certs come out all scores are gonna be close.
5. Other?

[Gaidin]

I think this is why if your score on the WD/LBMT is not sufficient they will not give you a score on the SI and thus no final score. I read the email to mean that none of the prior scoring will be used in this phase. So the only thing that matters is these scores and any vet preference a person may have. I have seen things elsewhere that indicated even in prior openings that the vet preference was a huge advantage. This may be the first time since 2003 that I regret getting out of the National Guard.

[moopigsdad]

Jul 29, 2013 10:16:25 GMT -5 zebra51 said:

So I was looking over old polls last week and saw there were a number that concerned individuals NORS. What they got, Whos left with and their NORS, GALS for Scores over 70, Scores for the last cert, Scores below 60, High score on xx Cert, etc, etc, etc,. One common thing I noted over all the polls was that the scores seemed to range from 40s to the 90s with 65-75 being what would appear at the peak of a bell curve. And then yesterday it hit me, the scores on this upcoming register are most likely not going to have that kind of range.

Here is my thinking. All the past registers were from an opening that lasted around 36 hours and had small number of apps as compared to this opening. So you have around 1200+/- applying and 900+/- making the register. That works out to the top 75% of those applying (and their scores) making the register. The upcoming register was open long enough to get 5000+/- applying, say 4000+/- making it to phase II, and 1200+/- making it to phase III. That works out to around the top 25% of those applying (and their scores) making it to the register. Additionally, the cut to phase III eliminated lower scores. So if you think about a bell curve the 25% remaining are all distributed on that fairly steep down slope.

My speculation. Those remaining and going to DC do not have the wide diverse range of scores that the past folks going to DC had and will not come out of DC with that wide range of scores (40-90). Guesstimations, the range of current remaining scores (correcting for if they were the finals) are more like 70-90 with the heaviest concentration in the 70-80 range.

What does it all mean(speculation)?
1. The final register is not going to have a huge score divergence as in the past.
2. DC scores are going to be very important because this is where the divergences in individual NORS are going to made.
3. Low differences in NORS are going to give some pluses to the Vets.
4. Wide GALS are going to be favored because when certs come out all scores are gonna be close.
5. Other?

I think there will still be a divergence in scores, but possibly not as wide, but who knows for sure. Yes, there is no doubt the D.C. scores will be the most important to date. Yes, Vets will have some pluses, but they deserve those pluses. Of course, a wide GAL will be favored over a narrow GAL should openings occur, but that has always been the case, unless your are 3-struck. I love the thought and speculation. It does give you some sobering thoughts about how well we all must have done to this point to get this far in the process. I spoke to a good ALJ friend of mine (now retired) who stated he is not sure he would have made it through the new process, if it had existed when he applied. He was amazed at all the intricacies of the process so far.

[JudgeRatty]

I bet it will be a traditional bell curve with a wide range in scores just as in the past. There are always folks who do not do well on certain types of timed testing, and those who do well. Same with interviewing, some do well, others do not. And the last email did say "If you do not receive the required minimum score on the WD or SI, you will not receive a final numerical rating and will not be placed on the ALJ register." So as Gaidin points out, you do have to have at least the "minimum" score, whatever that is, which could range from a fixed score point or not, maybe just completion of exam will suffice to be "minimum" ...rather than having a fixed numerical score at this point.

[71stretch]

Jul 29, 2013 11:41:10 GMT -5 JudgeRatty said:

I bet it will be a traditional bell curve with a wide range in scores just as in the past. There are always folks who do not do well on certain types of timed testing, and those who do well. Same with interviewing, some do well, others do not. And the last email did say "If you do not receive the required minimum score on the WD or SI, you will not receive a final numerical rating and will not be placed on the ALJ register." So as Gaidin points out, you do have to have at least the "minimum" score, whatever that is, which could range from a fixed score point or not, maybe just completion of exam will suffice to be "minimum" ...rather than having a fixed numerical score at this point.

Agree with this... I don't think it's going to be that different. The way to get to the numbers is not the same, but you are still going to see the same type of score range.

[funkyodar]

I disagree that our current scores (those obtained on the sjt, wd an ea) no longer matter or only mattered to get us to phase 3. if that's the case we are all at even going in to dc. from the opm explanation on how vet points are calculated it seems we are all going to dc with some point value and are ranked already.

They said vet points were added to help vets get over the cut off for phase 3 but then taken away during phase 3. after dc is done they re-add the vet points to the final score for nor and register slotting.

If phase 2 points don't matter, there is no reason to take the vet points back during phase 3.

I think phase 2 counted for some percentage of the total and phase 3 will as well, likely a greater percentage than phase 2. still, if you knocked phase 2 outta the park you can do a lil worse on 3 and still be ok. contrarily,if you barely slipped by phase 2 you need to up the game on 3. of course no one knows where they are, so no comfort attained.

I still think the final register will be like the past. if you made dc, don't vomit on the si panel, write more than a dick and jane style decision and your lbmt doesn't scream sociopath you will make the register. maybe with a score that's too low to ever make a cert, but on the register.

[JudgeRatty]

Agree! It specifically states: "The rating will be based on the scores assigned for the SJT/Writing Sample/Experience Assessment, WD/LBMT, and SI components of the examination with a maximum possible total score of 100, excluding veterans' preference." So ALL components count toward the final numerical score.

[moopigsdad]

Jul 29, 2013 11:54:47 GMT -5 funkyodar said:

I disagree that our current scores (those obtained on the sjt, wd an ea) no longer matter or only mattered to get us to phase 3. if that's the case we are all at even going in to dc. from the opm explanation on how vet points are calculated it seems we are all going to dc with some point value and are ranked already.

They said vet points were added to help vets get over the cut off for phase 3 but then taken away during phase 3. after dc is done they re-add the vet points to the final score for nor and register slotting.

If phase 2 points don't matter, there is no reason to take the vet points back during phase 3.

I think phase 2 counted for some percentage of the total and phase 3 will as well, likely a greater percentage than phase 2. still, if you knocked phase 2 outta the park you can do a lil worse on 3 and still be ok. contrarily,if you barely slipped by phase 2 you need to up the game on 3. of course no one knows where they are, so no comfort attained.

I still think the final register will be like the past. if you made dc, don't vomit on the si panel, write more than a thingy and jane style decision and your lbmt doesn't scream sociopath you will make the register. maybe with a score that's too low to ever make a cert, but on the register.

I love your use of "thingy" rather than the name which is short for Richard. God help those who write a "This is Spot. See Spot run. Run Spot run." type answer for the WD unless that writer is a first grader.

[robespierre]

Zebra - I agree with your point that since there were way more applicants this time (due to the announcement being open longer), there was a lot more winnowing down prior to getting to the number of people qualifying for the DC Testing/SI.

However, now that that winnowing down is over, OPM is free to rate the survivors on any type of curve it pleases. So I think we'll see the same 40/90/bell-type distribution as in the past; that seems to be their preferred way of doing things. They'll just construct a curve that yields that result.

Of course, people with 40 this time around are probably going to be better candidates than people with 40 in other cycles; again, because the applicant pool was deeper. Since 40 presumably won't get the job, the moral of the story, I think, is that a ton of very talented people are not going to become ALJs. This is a very high-level competition indeed. I'm honored to have gotten this far.

[funkyodar]

Jul 29, 2013 13:08:42 GMT -5 robespierre said:

Zebra - I agree with your point that since there were way more applicants this time (due to the announcement being open longer), there was a lot more winnowing down prior to getting to the number of people qualifying for the DC Testing/SI.

However, now that that winnowing down is over, OPM is free to rate the survivors on any type of curve it pleases. So I think we'll see the same 40/90/bell-type distribution as in the past; that seems to be their preferred way of doing things. They'll just construct a curve that yields that result.

Of course, people with 40 this time around are probably going to be better candidates than people with 40 in other cycles; again, because the applicant pool was deeper. Since 40 presumably won't get the job, the moral of the story, I think, is that a ton of very talented people are not going to become ALJs. This is a very high-level competition indeed. I'm honored to have gotten this far.

Agreed. under the old method if you had the 7 years your AR record (essentially a supersized EA) was graded and the higher scored subgroup got invited to dc. by the nature of the beast that grading was very subjective. with the addition of the sjt and wd and the lbmt in dc, opm has a lot more objective basis for cutting and low ranking someone.

Add that to the vast increase in the number of apps accepted and it is easy to see the 40 scorers of this new method won't be the same as the 40 scorers in the past. Then, this new method was designed to that end. sadly, the result will be the same though, 40ers won't have a real shot.