ehjd
Member
Posts: 20
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Post by ehjd on Aug 2, 2013 18:44:38 GMT -5
Any idea how many people can fit in Conference Room 1350 at OPM? Here is how to spend a few empty minutes of pure speculation: So, given that my WD and SI are next week, which is the first week I've seen on this board, and if the round three continues, week in and week out for, say, the next ten weeks (mid October?), assuming that 1350 is full of round 3 applicants 2 days per week (Tuesday and Thursday?), it might be a very general way to assess the potential size of the new registry. Just a way to kill some time in advance of next week. By the way, this is my first post but I have to say that I appreciate this Board very much and the spirit and thoughtfulness of those on it! Good to know there are kindred spirits out there in government.
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Post by funkyodar on Aug 2, 2013 19:13:03 GMT -5
Welcome to the board ehjd.
I have posted before my thoughts on this topic. I've been told no more than 50 can be tested at once. But based on the dates tossed around I think testing will be 4 days a week. Thisis based on the fact that everyone has reported their wd/lbmt to be the day before their si, with no one reporting having a weekend in between. There are those who have their testing on mondays but no si have been reported on monday. similarly there are those that have si on a friday but no one has reported testing on a friday.
So 50 a day for 4 days a week is 200 per week. It also appears that only 8 weeks have been scheduled from the date ranges listed on the board (though there are a few that report not being scheduled yet and feasibly could be added in at the end). That means 1600. Take away a few slots here and there and take out labor day you get to 1500 which is the number many have guessed is the target size of the register.
Acemidnight and I discussed this and other reasons 1500 makes sense in the polling palace thread about what people ranked themselves last nite.
Its all total speculation, but I think 1500 for the register makes the most sense and fits the best with what few facts we know.
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Post by hopefalj on Aug 2, 2013 19:27:53 GMT -5
Welcome to the board ehjd. I have posted before my thoughts on this topic. I've been told no more than 50 can be tested at once. But based on the dates tossed around I think testing will be 4 days a week. Thisis based on the fact that everyone has reported their wd/lbmt to be the day before their si, with no one reporting having a weekend in between. There are those who have their testing on mondays but no si have been reported on monday. similarly there are those that have si on a friday but no one has reported testing on a friday. So 50 a day for 4 days a week is 200 per week. It also appears that only 8 weeks have been scheduled from the date ranges listed on the board (though there are a few that report not being scheduled yet and feasibly could be added in at the end). That means 1600. Take away a few slots here and there and take out labor day you get to 1500 which is the number many have guessed is the target size of the register. Acemidnight and I discussed this and other reasons 1500 makes sense in the polling palace thread about what people ranked themselves last nite. Its all total speculation, but I think 1500 for the register makes the most sense and fits the best with what few facts we know. To add to the speculation (and perhaps regurgitate the thoughts of others), I would estimate 10% of the 1500-1600 invited to round three either (a) won't go through with it or (b) will flub some portion of the testing/interviews. Here's hoping I don't fall under either category. |
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Post by carrickfergus on Aug 4, 2013 17:27:46 GMT -5
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Post by 71stretch on Aug 4, 2013 18:00:31 GMT -5
I think some people have WAY too much time on their hands...  |
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Post by moopigsdad on Aug 7, 2013 6:47:09 GMT -5
We now know that no more than 32 can take the WD/LBMT at one time. So, if the testing is done 4 days a week, times 32 people equals 128 people testing each week. Then, the 128 people times 8 weeks of testing equals 1,024 people total passed on to Phase 3. Let's assume that another 200 are added through appeal, hence the total of the new Register will be approximately 1,224 total. However, this doesn't take into account those who decide not to go to DC or don't do well enough on the testing to achieve a spot on the Register. So, it is likely there will be less than 1,200 total on the Register when all is said and done.
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Post by funkyodar on Aug 7, 2013 8:12:54 GMT -5
We now know that no more than 32 can take the WD/LBMT at one time. So, if the testing is done 4 days a week, times 32 people equals 128 people testing each week. Then, the 128 people times 8 weeks of testing equals 1,024 people total passed on to Phase 3. Let's assume that another 200 are added through appeal, hence the total of the new Register will be approximately 1,224 total. However, this doesn't take into account those who decide not to go to DC or don't do well enough on the testing to achieve a spot on the Register. So, it is likely there will be less than 1,200 total on the Register when all is said and done. Can't argue with steelrain's report or your math. 1 caveat, there are some board members that are still reporting they haven't been given assigned dates yet. I assumed they were mere victims of opm email snafus, but it could be there is an entire second group that will be scheduled beginning in october. Those posting in that scenario are a small contingent, so it would have to be a large # of lurkers and people that don't bother with the board to make a difference. That would also explain why a few who have requested rescheduling haven't been assigned new dates yet. This is purely a guess, and not one I put much stock in. Wow. if the new register only has 1200, some of the major rumors are proven wrong. This was rumored to be the largest register ever. Less than 1500 won't get that distinction. Does that mean the rumored 3 year life span is wrong? Or that opm didn't base it on total expected vacancies but on actual expected hires? All I know is, the smaller the register the better it is for those on it. And, given the vast # that applied, just getting on the register is an accomplishment. I dunno the total numbers, but I had a lot of friends, acquaintances, colleagues and friends-of-friends that didn't get by phase 1. The prevaling rumor is 4700 took phase 2. if only 1200 got to phase 3 and therefore the register....wow. This competition is kinda Ricky Bobbyish "if you ain't first, you're last" but just getting on over really high competition is an ego boosting honor. |
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Post by moopigsdad on Aug 7, 2013 8:25:53 GMT -5
We now know that no more than 32 can take the WD/LBMT at one time. So, if the testing is done 4 days a week, times 32 people equals 128 people testing each week. Then, the 128 people times 8 weeks of testing equals 1,024 people total passed on to Phase 3. Let's assume that another 200 are added through appeal, hence the total of the new Register will be approximately 1,224 total. However, this doesn't take into account those who decide not to go to DC or don't do well enough on the testing to achieve a spot on the Register. So, it is likely there will be less than 1,200 total on the Register when all is said and done. Can't argue with steelrain's report or your math. 1 caveat, there are some board members that are still reporting they haven't been given assigned dates yet. I assumed they were mere victims of opm email snafus, but it could be there is an entire second group that will be scheduled beginning in october. Those posting in that scenario are a small contingent, so it would have to be a large # of lurkers and people that don't bother with the board to make a difference. That would also explain why a few who have requested rescheduling haven't been assigned new dates yet. This is purely a guess, and not one I put much stock in. Wow. if the new register only has 1200, some of the major rumors are proven wrong. This was rumored to be the largest register ever. Less than 1500 won't get that distinction. Does that mean the rumored 3 year life span is wrong? Or that opm didn't base it on total expected vacancies but on actual expected hires? All I know is, the smaller the register the better it is for those on it. And, given the vast # that applied, just getting on the register is an accomplishment. I dunno the total numbers, but I had a lot of friends, acquaintances, colleagues and friends-of-friends that didn't get by phase 1. The prevaling rumor is 4700 took phase 2. if only 1200 got to phase 3 and therefore the register....wow. This competition is kinda Ricky Bobbyish "if you ain't first, you're last" but just getting on over really high competition is an ego boosting honor. I do agree that the odds increasingly seem to favor those who make it through the process at possibly landing a position if there are indeed high numbers of retirees as expected from SSA. I agree that just making it through the process and achieving a NOR makes you one of a very select few, especially considering the process changed completely from past procedure. However, I am not so sure that 4700 took Phase 2, but I think the number taking Phase 2 was closer to between 3600 and 4000 total. Hence, only the top 1/3 or 1/4 made it to Phase 3. This is indeed an accomplishment for all those going on to DC for testing. Pat yourselves on the back, but know the process isn't just to make it to DC, but to acquire an ALJ position. Assume that less than 1/3 (perhaps as few as 1/4) of those actually making the Register will be lucky enough to gain a position. Still, you should be proud of where you are and it should make you try even harder to push farther.  |
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Post by gunner on Aug 8, 2013 16:32:15 GMT -5
For the record, I counted 23 people at today's WD/LBMT. So there should probably be some appropriate averaging to account for days in which the room is not completely full.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2013 16:38:56 GMT -5
I was told 28 were there yesterday. I think two people were no shows.
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Post by dreamer13 on Aug 8, 2013 16:43:06 GMT -5
Yup, Gunner is correct only 23 people showed up today.
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Post by moopigsdad on Aug 8, 2013 16:44:27 GMT -5
For the record, I counted 23 people at today's WD/LBMT. So there should probably be some appropriate averaging to account for days in which the room is not completely full. Based upon the fact that nobody this week claimed a full room, it is likely there may only be around 960 people (30 people times 4 days times 8 weeks) actually going to DC for testing. Add in another 140 for successful appeals and you might have 1100 total on the register. Of course this is all guess work at best. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2013 17:02:24 GMT -5
MPD guy told me today he has heard they are testing into early oct. anyone report an oct test date?
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Post by hopefalj on Aug 8, 2013 17:32:13 GMT -5
MPD guy told me today he has heard they are testing into early oct. anyone report an oct test date? I believe someone was rescheduled to 10/1 and 10/2 after making the schedule change request. |
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Post by moopigsdad on Aug 8, 2013 18:01:22 GMT -5
MPD guy told me today he has heard they are testing into early oct. anyone report an oct test date? It is my understanding that some people are testing through the first week in October 2013. |
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Post by minny on Aug 8, 2013 18:56:19 GMT -5
MPD guy told me today he has heard they are testing into early oct. anyone report an oct test date? I believe someone was rescheduled to 10/1 and 10/2 after making the schedule change request. |
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Post by minny on Aug 8, 2013 18:57:44 GMT -5
Sorry posted too early just now. I was rescheduled to October 1 and 2.
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Post by sealaw90 on Aug 12, 2013 17:40:03 GMT -5
We had 25 in our room, and OPM indicated there were a couple of no shows. Some folks also confirmed that they had friends who were testing the first week of October, but no word that there were any later testing dates. It is looking more and more that we are talking about 1100 - 1200 folks on the register when all is said and done - wow, I really thought there'd be more.
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Post by moopigsdad on Aug 12, 2013 18:08:42 GMT -5
We had 25 in our room, and OPM indicated there were a couple of no shows. Some folks also confirmed that they had friends who were testing the first week of October, but no word that there were any later testing dates. It is looking more and more that we are talking about 1100 - 1200 folks on the register when all is said and done - wow, I really thought there'd be more. Actually since nobody has reported a completely full room yet, it is likely there may be closer to only 1000 on the Register without counting appeals. Much smaller than any of us thought. |
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Post by JudgeRatty on Aug 13, 2013 8:20:49 GMT -5
We had 25 in our room, and OPM indicated there were a couple of no shows. Some folks also confirmed that they had friends who were testing the first week of October, but no word that there were any later testing dates. It is looking more and more that we are talking about 1100 - 1200 folks on the register when all is said and done - wow, I really thought there'd be more. Actually since nobody has reported a completely full room yet, it is likely there may be closer to only 1000 on the Register without counting appeals. Much smaller than any of us thought. I bet the cost of the travel, short notice, and just general attrition from the process is part of it. They may have anticipated more would show. |
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