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Post by dropduff on Nov 5, 2013 13:56:22 GMT -5
all good points but I have to go back to Funkyodar's "cynical, conspiracy theorist" views - they somehow have a calming effect on me. It all makes sense now. "These steps will have the effect of drastically increasing the backlog under the cover of a new quest for quality and budgetary restraints. As the backlog grows, angry constituent calls grow and ssa's depleted weapon is reloaded for future budget battles." For those of you who have ever had the pleasure of handling a congressional inquiry at your agency, you totally understand. So keep those pics of long lines outside the SSA field offices coming! I was going to make a brazen remark about SSA putting HHS in charge of the ODAR website just to really gum it up, but I catch myself. I am hoping that HHS (medicare appeals) has the wherewithal to pressure OPM to get the NORs out early, but they may be just a little preoccupied these days. Yes, certs may be pulled as early as June, even for a September hire, but I am still holding out for January NOR, February certs.
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Post by dropduff on Nov 5, 2013 13:56:32 GMT -5
all good points but I have to go back to Funkyodar's "cynical, conspiracy theorist" views - they somehow have a calming effect on me. It all makes sense now. "These steps will have the effect of drastically increasing the backlog under the cover of a new quest for quality and budgetary restraints. As the backlog grows, angry constituent calls grow and ssa's depleted weapon is reloaded for future budget battles." For those of you who have ever had the pleasure of handling a congressional inquiry at your agency, you totally understand. So keep those pics of long lines outside the SSA field offices coming! I was going to make a brazen remark about SSA putting HHS in charge of the ODAR website just to really gum it up, but I catch myself. I am hoping that HHS (medicare appeals) has the wherewithal to pressure OPM to get the NORs out early, but they may be just a little preoccupied these days. Yes, certs may be pulled as early as June, even for a September hire, but I am still holding out for January NOR, February certs.
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Post by dropduff on Nov 5, 2013 13:57:36 GMT -5
all good points but I have to go back to Funkyodar's "cynical, conspiracy theorist" views - they somehow have a calming effect on me. It all makes sense now. "These steps will have the effect of drastically increasing the backlog under the cover of a new quest for quality and budgetary restraints. As the backlog grows, angry constituent calls grow and ssa's depleted weapon is reloaded for future budget battles." For those of you who have ever had the pleasure of handling a congressional inquiry at your agency, you totally understand. So keep those pics of long lines outside the SSA field offices coming! I was going to make a brazen remark about SSA putting HHS in charge of the ODAR website just to really gum it up, but I catch myself. I am hoping that HHS (medicare appeals) has the wherewithal to pressure OPM to get the NORs out early, but they may be just a little preoccupied these days. Yes, certs may be pulled as early as June, even for a September hire, but I am still holding out for January NOR, February certs. And the roller coaster ride continues...
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Post by epic0ego on Nov 5, 2013 14:34:21 GMT -5
the thing about the roller coaster ride is that some get to ride and some are destined to watch from afar. For Benny, I would say go back to the early frames on this thread. You will see it all, from the mad conspiracy theorists (put me in that camp), to the pure scientific reasoning crowd (funkyodar, observer53, ssaogc, acemidnight, et al.) All I know is, in the end, ODAR will get their man or woman, and that is as it should be.
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Benny
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Post by Benny on Nov 5, 2013 15:40:53 GMT -5
I see epic0ego, some interesting reading in the past posts, conspiracy and otherwise. My confusion is here...if OPM picks the Cert, then how can ODAR have a hand in finding/going after their "special" one! Or do most conspiracy theorists believe the magic manipulation begins when the Cert comes out.
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Post by zebra51 on Nov 5, 2013 15:52:48 GMT -5
I am unclear on how the cert goes to ODAR. Say 20 cites (times 3 names).
Does OPM give ODAR one list with 60+ names and then ODAR arranges. OR Does OPM give 20 list with 3+ names on each?
The announcement suggest that it is 20 list. "It is the responsibility of the hiring agency to make selections from the list of candidates referred for employment consideration from among the highest three available names"
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Post by JudgeRatty on Nov 5, 2013 16:09:30 GMT -5
I see epic0ego, some interesting reading in the past posts, conspiracy and otherwise. My confusion is here...if OPM picks the Cert, then how can ODAR have a hand in finding/going after their "special" one! Or do most conspiracy theorists believe the magic manipulation begins when the Cert comes out. I am unclear on how the cert goes to ODAR. Say 20 cites (times 3 names). Does OPM give ODAR one list with 60+ names and then ODAR arranges. OR Does OPM give 20 list with 3+ names on each? The announcement suggest that it is 20 list. "It is the responsibility of the hiring agency to make selections from the list of candidates referred for employment consideration from among the highest three available names" I was under the impression that OPM creates the "register" and then different agencies issue a "certificate" according to their needs, i.e. different cities. Then the individual agencies do their interviews and reference checks. I did not think that OPM had a hand in the various certificates. I thought once the register was complete, OPM was finished with their part and then dealt with appeals to get on the register. And I stand corrected, OPM does issue the certificate to the hiring agency... just went back and looked at the hiring info on the main web page. For some reason I thought the certificate came from the individual agency... but not so. See this thread: aljdiscussion.proboards.com/thread/824/alj-hiring-faq-intro-processWhat is the difference between being on the ALJ registry and being on a cert? Registry = list of people who took the test and got scored. Everyone who made the initial cut on the OPM test gets scored and put on there. Certificate = list sent to the hiring agency from OPM. Contains the names of three geographically compatible top scorers for each ALJ opening. So if an agency is hiring 10 ALJs, OPM will send a certificate with 30 names on it. And THIS is why it is so important to have a wide GAL. You need to be one of the 3 top scorers for THAT particular city. So the more cities you have, the better chances of having your name come up on a cert.
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Post by redryder on Nov 5, 2013 16:15:31 GMT -5
The list of candidates for any given location has more than 3 names on it. As a selection is made, that person is removed for any other locations included in his GAL and another name is slotted into the top three candidates for the remaining locations.
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Post by epic0ego on Nov 5, 2013 16:16:57 GMT -5
I agree with Sratty's understanding. I have personally seen certs with 10 names on them, and some with only 3. ODAR can probably request a particular number for each city. But here is the rub, some superstar candidates will score around 100, have a wide-open GAL, and have veteran status. That person will likely appear among the top 3 on every city that has a cert pulled. that is why ODAR often requests a "deep" cert listing for certain "popular" cities. some scientists on the board will tell you that ODAR simply goes down the list in order of high score, making sure to observe the "rule of 3s" and not skipping over veterans to get to the candidates that they want. The cynical conspiratorial-types (like me), think ODAR wants who they want and is fully prepared to move some superstars to what has become known as "crapland" in the vernacular, if need be, and in order to get what they want. There is nothing wrong or bad about this unless you end up being a selectee who later wishes they had been more circumspect in choosing their GAL. the basic idea is that if you move enough superstars (who can't complain because, after all, they chose to go to crapland), out of the way, then you can reach the people you want who have lower scores or narrow GALs. I now issue the proverbial disclaimer and invite comment from those who know alot more about this than I do.
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Post by redryder on Nov 5, 2013 16:22:11 GMT -5
A word of caution to all applicants. While it passes the time to speculate on when the NOR will come out and how an agency does its hiring, please don't get too wrapped up in it. I have been a reader of the blog for many years and have seen the responses when the NOR do come out and later when the offers are made. Getting an appointment as an ALJ is never a sure thing, no matter how confident you may be in your abilities. There are people who have never been selected. Some have accepted with grace and others have become very bitter. While passing the time, you may want to think about the possibilities of failure, and how will you handle it?
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Benny
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Post by Benny on Nov 5, 2013 16:33:11 GMT -5
Thanks epic0ego for the response and description of the "shell game" that could be played. It makes sense for some reason. Maybe I have spent too much time on this board!
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Post by epic0ego on Nov 5, 2013 16:35:30 GMT -5
A word of caution to all applicants. While it passes the time to speculate on when the NOR will come out and how an agency does its hiring, please don't get too wrapped up in it. I have been a reader of the blog for many years and have seen the responses when the NOR do come out and later when the offers are made. Getting an appointment as an ALJ is never a sure thing, no matter how confident you may be in your abilities. There are people who have never been selected. Some have accepted with grace and others have become very bitter. While passing the time, you may want to think about the possibilities of failure, and how will you handle it? very apropos redryder. I am one of those who has failed many times despite being a veteran with a score in the 80s. i fully expect this will be my last rodeo one way or the other.
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Post by Ace Midnight on Nov 5, 2013 16:40:09 GMT -5
But here is the rub, some superstar candidates will score around 100, have a wide-open GAL, and have veteran status. That person will likely appear among the top 3 on every city that has a cert pulled. What I'm going to do, at that point, is to cut it to 5 to 7 locations with likely vacancies (after carefully reviewing the transfers and consulting with my brain trust) and are a comfortable drive from my home (and ultimate destination city).
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Post by Ace Midnight on Nov 5, 2013 16:42:47 GMT -5
Remember that if hire is September, 2014 then go 4 months prior for certs interviews, transfers etc. I was told Honestly, regardless of what OPM does with the register, the transfer list being worked will be THE key indicator that ODAR hiring is coming, and coming in ~100 days or so.
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Post by moopigsdad on Nov 5, 2013 16:45:38 GMT -5
A word of caution to all applicants. While it passes the time to speculate on when the NOR will come out and how an agency does its hiring, please don't get too wrapped up in it. I have been a reader of the blog for many years and have seen the responses when the NOR do come out and later when the offers are made. Getting an appointment as an ALJ is never a sure thing, no matter how confident you may be in your abilities. There are people who have never been selected. Some have accepted with grace and others have become very bitter. While passing the time, you may want to think about the possibilities of failure, and how will you handle it? While I agree with your post redryder, I wouldn't use the term "failure". I don't think anyone who earns a NOR is a failure, although they may not ever be offered an ALJ position or make a cert. It just means it wasn't in the cards. I think the correct term is how will you deal with the disappointment rather than "failure". Other than that your post is right on.
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Post by epic0ego on Nov 5, 2013 16:49:28 GMT -5
But here is the rub, some superstar candidates will score around 100, have a wide-open GAL, and have veteran status. That person will likely appear among the top 3 on every city that has a cert pulled. What I'm going to do, at that point, is to cut it to 5 to 7 locations with likely vacancies (after carefully reviewing the transfers and consulting with my brain trust) and are a comfortable drive from my home (and ultimate destination city). Ace, yours is the superior strategy. Where I differ is the "likely vacancies" part. My problem is that I want to go to the same places everyone else wants to go to.
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Post by JudgeRatty on Nov 5, 2013 16:50:51 GMT -5
A word of caution to all applicants. While it passes the time to speculate on when the NOR will come out and how an agency does its hiring, please don't get too wrapped up in it. I have been a reader of the blog for many years and have seen the responses when the NOR do come out and later when the offers are made. Getting an appointment as an ALJ is never a sure thing, no matter how confident you may be in your abilities. There are people who have never been selected. Some have accepted with grace and others have become very bitter. While passing the time, you may want to think about the possibilities of failure, and how will you handle it? Very true. For me, I will trudge on... I love my current job, but want more involvement and contact with people. I miss the courtroom. I have no negative side in this venture as I will keep plugging away in the current position at ODAR until I can try for an ALJ position again in the future! It's a win win for me. I will of course be disappointed if I do not make it this time, but I am prepared for either result. It is certainly NOT in the bag! Many people have been passed over throughout the years, many qualified excellent people. My hats off to those who do make it!
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Post by yarddog on Nov 5, 2013 18:16:39 GMT -5
In my attempt to pay it forward for all of the great information I have learned on these Boards, I just wanted all to know that Chief Judge Bice spoke at the new ALJ class today and indicated that the next hire would most likely be in Sept., 2014; budget permitting. thanks for the Falls Church info TMG. IF I remember correctly. Judge Bice earlier said June 2014 hiring. Given what has happened in the last few months, that delay could happen. I wonder why this process was started without a plan to hire sooner than 18 months out at the earliest. Things happen I suppose. For nonsensical reasons too. I'm trying to work myself into another better job from the one I just got. Failure is not an option. Just may have to adjust my plan, thats all. Still think Jan cert. will happen. call me crazy/yarddog. Thanks for the varying opinions. Life is so interesting!
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Post by epic0ego on Nov 5, 2013 18:46:42 GMT -5
as best I can determine, the "sense of the board" is that, overall, folks have a 1 in 3 chance of getting selected. if you have a score in the 80s/90s with a wide open GAL, and you are a veteran, I would put your chances at 70-80% that you will get picked. That's assuming you did ok in the ODAR interview. If you get a "no go" from the interviewers, they may seek to work around you, notwithstanding your high scores.
if you are not in the "gilded few," things get alot "dicyer", and thus, your chances drop to 1 in 3 or maybe impossible. if your narrow GAL is New York, Washington D.C., Boston, Philadelphia, Baltimore, San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, Seattle, Chicago, Houston, Denver, Charleston, Atlanta, Miami, or any city within driving distance of those cities, as well as most major cities in Florida, Colorado, Texas, or Arizona, your odds probably drop to 1 in 10, or lower. Please don't ask me for the math supporting this guesstimation. It is a matter of permutations and combinations which I have some knowledge of because my school made me take it. The underlying data is also questionable because it is based on dated information set forth in the third post on page 9 of this thread. If someone has better data, please step forward. Suffice it to say that if you pick a popular city, you will face competition from hundreds of highly qualified judges and attorneys, and the odds of you being picked will be 1 in 100s. The way to understand this figure, however, is to recognize that scores of the people ahead of you could well be eliminated because they will be picked for other cities, or they will be 3-struck, or they blew the interview, or someone doesn't like them, or whatever. I was once chosen as the 8th alternate selection for the U.S. Air Force Academy but because the people ahead of me went to Harvard, Yale, or whatever, I was eventually selected. So it is hardly an impossible situation, just unlikely if you have a narrow GAL.
Acemidnight gave us the answer. Pick as many places on your GAL as you can consistent with where you would really, really, be willing to go - even on the fringes of where you would be willing to go - having some sense of how well you might score. If you are real smart, test well, and are a veteran, you may be able to play it like your approach for picking colleges. Pick where you want to go, but pick a "safe school" that you would find tolerable. If you pick crapland, you just might get it, no matter how great and wonderful you are. If you think you might score in the 70s or lower, make your GAL as wide as possible, even places you don't think you could live in, but not places you know you would hate.
I did not take my own advice. I was highly selective with my GAL because my current position is acceptable to me. I want ODAR but not at the cost of living in crapland every day. Again, this is not geographic chauvinism. I love visiting the country. I just need to be near culture, airports, employment centers, and my peeps. Let's face it folks, it's all a trade-off.
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Post by 71stretch on Nov 5, 2013 20:49:03 GMT -5
It's not that easy to figure out where the "likely vacancies" are in the list of cities that are tied to a cert, and take cities off the list they send you to get it down to the most likely 5 to 7. You won't know the transfer situation before you have to make those choices. And, unless your score is high and you wowed them at the interview, all that whittling down if your GAL won't help you get hired.
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