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Post by Gaidin on Mar 14, 2014 9:10:51 GMT -5
I went to law school mostly because I found math so frustrating and decided that engineering wasn't for me. Now that we have NORs though we should look at the data we have (almost all of which is rank speculation and SWAG).
DC phase testing occurred over a roughly 9 week period with a few outliers.
Room 1350 could hold no more than 32 test takers.
The WD/LBMT was given M-Th most weeks and the SI given T-F most weeks.
We know of several test dates with fewer than 32 test takers.
If we use: 9 weeks; 32 test takers; and 4 days a week we probably have a larger number of test takers than actually took the test.
That number is 1152.
If we assume that everybody who was SD got a Dear Hopeful email and that appears to be the case (much to my dismay). We had about 28% report as SD. Which gives us 323 SD'ers.
That leaves only 829 hopefuls in the pool. I am not saying these numbers are good numbers but instead asking what you guys think of that as a possibility?
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Post by mikeinthehills on Mar 14, 2014 9:15:13 GMT -5
Gaiden, I just posted this in the polling thread: "My best estimate (it's in another thread somewhere) was that between 950 and 1,100 went to DC. From the thread on "SD vs. Complete" after the status change in December, it appears an additional 30% +/- were cut when NOR's were released. That would leave somewhere in the range of 750 +/- still standing."
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Post by Gaidin on Mar 14, 2014 9:25:40 GMT -5
mike that sounds about right and I used "conservative numbers above" I don't think we had over 1,100 people test in DC. The above is sort of a best guess. Two asides here. Since DLOTS disappeared I begin to doubt there was any testing in December and begin to believe they were a massive troll. Which is a shame because they were pretty funny. Second this Poll had 134 responses when I copied the link. That gives us a pretty good response percentage of the people left in the life boat. aljdiscussion.proboards.com/thread/2459/more-refined-results-2013-test?page=3&scrollTo=50651 |
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Post by sealaw90 on Mar 14, 2014 9:26:54 GMT -5
Gaidin, I also posted my WAG in the other thread with Mike.
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Post by Gaidin on Mar 14, 2014 14:16:08 GMT -5
The Poll I linked above has about 180 responses and the other poll has 199 or so. That means we have a huge sample size to get an idea on the results. Some (people on this board) have suggested that the people on this board tend to score higher than others. That may mean the NORs generally have skewed higher but probably not by more than a few points.
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Post by Ace Midnight on Mar 14, 2014 14:55:55 GMT -5
My number is 750 to 800 (purely estimating) to go on the register. I like my chances.
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Post by Gaidin on Mar 14, 2014 16:24:10 GMT -5
My number is 750 to 800 (purely estimating) to go on the register. I like my chances. Sealaw estimated in one of the poll threads 1025 at DC and that leaves 781 in the pool now. Another thing from over in those threads is that of the 93 respondents to demographic poll 1 only 15 were SSA insiders with passing scores. Assuming some validity to the polls that means that less than 20% (16.13%) of the applicants in the pool are insiders. This could lead to much better shot for non-insiders than previous registers. 38 of 89 respondents indicated they had a GAL of 20 or fewer locations and 13 of 89 indicated they had 3 or fewer locations on their GAL. This factor alone could be huge in hiring. I am sure that there are lots of applicants for each location but I am not sure the depth is there as it has in past registers. |
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Post by privateatty on Mar 15, 2014 8:30:12 GMT -5
Its more than enough for two healthy certs for SSA (300-400) and maybe a couple of smaller ones.
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Post by workdrone on Mar 15, 2014 8:46:50 GMT -5
Its more than enough for two healthy certs for SSA (300-400) and maybe a couple of smaller ones. I concur. A new register with 750-900 candidates should keep SSA happy for 2014 and 2015. Additionally, a late 2015/early 2016 refresh would be in line with the expiration date of 12/20/2015 on the NOR. |
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Post by chessparent on Mar 15, 2014 19:03:30 GMT -5
Gaidan, you little smartie pants. Are you available to do my taxes next week?
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Post by Gaidin on Mar 15, 2014 19:58:01 GMT -5
Gaidan, you little smartie pants. Are you available to do my taxes next week? I don't even do my own taxes. Got to keep the CPA's occupied. Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using proboards |
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Post by Patience on Mar 15, 2014 20:27:44 GMT -5
Gaidan, you little smartie pants. Are you available to do my taxes next week? |
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Post by Patience on Mar 15, 2014 20:28:01 GMT -5
Gaidan, you little smartie pants. Are you available to do my taxes next week? |
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Post by Patience on Mar 15, 2014 20:29:36 GMT -5
Its more than enough for two healthy certs for SSA (300-400) and maybe a couple of smaller ones. I concur. A new register with 750-900 candidates should keep SSA happy for 2014 and 2015. Additionally, a late 2015/early 2016 refresh would be in line with the expiration date of 12/20/2015 on the NOR. What is a refresh? |
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Post by funkyodar on Mar 15, 2014 21:31:03 GMT -5
I concur. A new register with 750-900 candidates should keep SSA happy for 2014 and 2015. Additionally, a late 2015/early 2016 refresh would be in line with the expiration date of 12/20/2015 on the NOR. What is a refresh? At some point due to hiring and 3 striking the numbers on the register will no longer support the provision of 3 candidates for every slot on a cert. Rather than just terminate the register and start completely anew, opm will reopen apps. Successful candidates will then be merged into the existing register. This is a refresh. given this reg is brand new and hiring expectations aren't huge, I wouldn't expect a refresh for at least 2 and maybe 3 years. |
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Post by Patience on Mar 16, 2014 18:45:01 GMT -5
Thanks Funky - you are a gem!
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Post by gary on Jun 29, 2016 7:30:10 GMT -5
I am bumping this thread because the discussion of the period of 2013 DC testing and the numbers tested may be of current interest.
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Post by bac on Jun 29, 2016 7:36:42 GMT -5
Reading this thread made my head hurt. Well, that may have been something else, but it didn't help
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Post by ba on Jun 29, 2016 7:49:23 GMT -5
At some point due to hiring and 3 striking the numbers on the register will no longer support the provision of 3 candidates for every slot on a cert. Rather than just terminate the register and start completely anew, opm will reopen apps. Successful candidates will then be merged into the existing register. This is a refresh. given this reg is brand new and hiring expectations aren't huge, I wouldn't expect a refresh for at least 2 and maybe 3 years. A refresh also generally allows those presently on the register to update their GAL. |
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Post by pubdef on Jun 29, 2016 8:03:18 GMT -5
TL;DR: This refresh will add between 1,344 and 2,175 new people to the register. This is based on current intel and historical data.
OK with Gary's intel we can plug some new numbers. This is all assuming we are still testing in the same room and they are inviting about 32 people for each day they can test (Monday through Thursday).
Last time around it was 9 weeks and the best guess was around 1152 tested in DC (which most agreed was a large guess) and around 25-30% did not meet the minimum to get on the register.
This time we are talking about 23 weeks (an additional 14 weeks). At 32 people testing all week of those weeks it would be 2,944 going to DC.
Of course, this is really too high. In 2013 it was quite common for the room to not be full, to have people not show up, and for holidays to interrupt testing. That said let's go with just 2,900 to make the numbers a little easier.
With these numbers, if they cut 25% of the people (725), OPM would end up with having 2,175 people added to the register. That would be an absolutely staggering amount. If we say they cut 30% of the testers (870) the register would add 2,030.
Now I'll try for a more conservative estimate. If they are planning on it testing over a 23 week period let's say they don't do testing the weeks of Labor Day, Columbus Day, Veterans Day, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Years, MLK, and Presidents Day. Likely it would just be partial weeks, but I will cut the entire week for a conservative number.
We would have 1,920. At 25% cut for not meeting the minimum (480) the register would add 1,440 and at 30% (576) it would add 1,344.
I am also not saying these numbers are good numbers but instead asking what you guys think of that as a possibility?
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