|
Post by gary on Jul 14, 2014 21:53:10 GMT -5
I don't need 48 hours to decide, I need .48 seconds. You are a much more deliberative person than me.
|
|
|
Post by Ace Midnight on Jul 14, 2014 22:04:51 GMT -5
So if we take it at face value, then ODAR really is rolling out offers one or two at a time and waiting on people to decide. If that's true, at an average of 24 hours per offer/acceptance - we're looking at Veteran's Day for 90.
|
|
|
Post by 71stretch on Jul 14, 2014 22:29:55 GMT -5
I really do think it will speed up once OMHA is out of the way, as I'm not sure that they are operating as indiependently as the lurker's message to ALJD would indicate. It's interesting to me that OMHA's background check is handled so differently, and that their hires are contingent on approval from OPM. A different process than we see with ODAR.
|
|
|
Post by cheesy on Jul 14, 2014 22:39:03 GMT -5
I really do think it will speed up once OMHA is out of the way, as I'm not sure that they are operating as indiependently as the lurker's message to ALJD would indicate. It's interesting to me that OMHA's background check is handled so differently, and that their hires are contingent on approval from OPM. A different process than we see with ODAR. This time. I'd be taking away some serious lessons learned if I were OMHA and my top choices began declining offers. OMHA needs to get far out in front of ODAR to take out the best people -- long before ODAR has a chance to engage. Once OMHA and ODAR come head-to-head in terms of scheduling offers, though, OMHA just cannot compete geographically.
|
|
|
Post by BagLady on Jul 14, 2014 22:50:48 GMT -5
I really do think it will speed up once OMHA is out of the way, as I'm not sure that they are operating as indiependently as the lurker's message to ALJD would indicate. It's interesting to me that OMHA's background check is handled so differently, and that their hires are contingent on approval from OPM. A different process than we see with ODAR. This time. I'd be taking away some serious lessons learned if I were OMHA and my top choices began declining offers. OMHA needs to get far out in front of ODAR to take out the best people -- long before ODAR has a chance to engage. Once OMHA and ODAR come head-to-head in terms of scheduling offers, though, OMHA just cannot compete geographically. The fact that they aren't paying relocation expenses doesn't help, either.
|
|
|
Post by geauxtiger on Jul 14, 2014 22:53:56 GMT -5
Congratulations!! Did you have a OMHA offer also? Vet? Tell us more! GeauxTiger had fingerprints requested and submitted to OMHA but no follow up as of today. I don't have much info, GeauxTiger is hiking and we've only spoken for a few moments. Supposed to report by the 25th of August. Not a vet. Just wanted to let you all know. Thanks to all of you for the well-wishes. I am backpacking and generally out of cell range, but wanted to encourage you. Offers are steadily coming...best of luck to all!
|
|
|
Post by funkyodar on Jul 15, 2014 7:10:15 GMT -5
I really do think it will speed up once OMHA is out of the way, as I'm not sure that they are operating as indiependently as the lurker's message to ALJD would indicate. It's interesting to me that OMHA's background check is handled so differently, and that their hires are contingent on approval from OPM. A different process than we see with ODAR. But when will omha be out of the way? It seems that every time we hear of them extending someone an offer or even requesting fingerprints, ssa swoops in with their offer to that candidate. In the past, rarely would someone turn down omha for odar. Not because omha is inherently a better gig. But because an omha offer was generally in places people considered "better" than the east crapland spot they were likely to get with odar. Now, though, odar is armed with powerful knowledge. The person's actual preferred locale. What we are seeing is omha offering. Those folks would normally accept and be off the ssa board. Maybe not officially, but unlikely they would turn down omha kc for odar mt pleasant. Now that odar can offer them exactly where they want it's a new game. And if what is slowing everything down is the battle with omha, every one odar "wins" just extends the battle because it means omha has to go to someone else, start over with its process, extend and offer then wait and see if odar snatches that one away too. This could drag on for a while.
|
|
|
Post by cubbietax on Jul 15, 2014 7:20:43 GMT -5
One thing I thought about this morning is ODAR only needs to get offers to the first training class (45 people approximately) done by the end of the first week of August. The second training class offers could go much later as there is no need, other than for those who need to close a private practice, to make offers in July or early August.
With that said, delaying offers until late August or September, goes against the intel that a second cert. will come out quickly after the first round of hiring is done. If you delay the first cert hires into September, the timeline to get 200 total hires by the end of the calendar begins to get really compressed.
Who knows, but it would seem that the dam has to break soon. Hopefully today, or this week, or this month, or ...
|
|
|
Post by orchid on Jul 15, 2014 7:25:11 GMT -5
I'm a hopeful second certer and an outsider but here are some of my thoughts, FWIW:
1. I think there is vast under reporting of offers. I looked a few times yesterday and saw in excess of 50 guests on the board. These people are obtaining info but not necessarily contributing to the board.
2. Some registered users won't share bc they don't want to give up their anoniminity. I know someone on this cert that is a registered user but has never posted and will never post. Also, some candidates may have never seen this board.
3. OMHA is reportedly seeking 10 judges but I don't see how that really can cut into the hiring of 90 by SSA. Unless SSA is hiring less this first cert.
4. I wish you first certers the best to get out of the way for the scoobies!
|
|
|
Post by Ace Midnight on Jul 15, 2014 7:26:47 GMT -5
Hopefully today, or this week, or this month, or ...
|
|
|
Post by funkyodar on Jul 15, 2014 7:27:35 GMT -5
Unfortunately Cub, that fits with the last intel I got. They could do just as you say, work.offers this month for just the first 45. Then, they start in August and train in September. In August, they could offer the next 45 who would start in September and train in october.
The judge I mentioned a few days ago reported he was told the next round of interviews would be in November. That means they woukd have plenty of time to ask for the second cert in September, after they offered the last 45 of the first cert, notify and get paperwork from the certed in October, interview in November and get offers out in December. It'd be close, but doable.
|
|
|
Post by funkyodar on Jul 15, 2014 7:53:39 GMT -5
Here's a scary thought. Let's say our anonymous friend is correct and either because odar just wants the highest scorers or this process means they have to take it that way, they are essentially just going thru and offering people in score order.
We started with 168. I figure no more than 5% self eliminated by declining the interview, declining all the cities they certed for or taking another agency's offer. So we are down to 160. Maybe another 5% got a bad ref or came across bad in the interview. So, say we are down to 152.
Our polling indicates the median score on this cert is 76 (thanks linky). So, logically 76 of that 152 are above the median. Maybe some of that 76 are gal limited and cant be selected for that reason, but with them trying to get the highest scorers and doing preference based offers, thats likely not many.
So 76 of the 90 slots go to folks on this cert with a 76 or higher score. Leaving only 14 slots for those, like yours funkily, who are on the cert but below 76.
So, from the 152, they hire 90, leaving 62 folks with above a 73 score, good references, at least a recommend on the interview and many with relatively wide gals.
So they do the second cert. Its for 110 slots. Thise 62? The vast majority will be on the second cert. As the highest scorers. Add in those high scorers that missed the first cert due to gal but make the second....could be like 80 folks with scores above 73 on the second. If they continue to hire in score order...that doesnt leave many slots for people below 73.
Good news is interviews could go fast. For 110 slots under this new process and based on the first cert, they would likely only get 200 names. And 60'of them may.already have been interviewed.
|
|
|
Post by hal3000 on Jul 15, 2014 8:03:41 GMT -5
So if the speculation about OMHA is accurate then why is ODAR waiting st all? Why don't they simply make offers to the top scorers all at once like they have in the past? Almost none of us would turn down an offer to go anywhere, right? Why wait for OMHA to make an offer first at all? They get who they want wherever they want now without waiting.
|
|
|
Post by hopefalj on Jul 15, 2014 8:10:28 GMT -5
I agree with the lurker's general analysis except that I do not believe they are trying to hire the top 90 scores. They're going to try to hire their top 90 people of the 160+ available to them. Many of those folks will have scores towards the top, of course, but I'm not sure I agree with funky's hypothetical 76-14 scenario.
|
|
|
Post by funkyodar on Jul 15, 2014 8:13:54 GMT -5
And I'm not offering it as something I necessarily believe either.
Just showing the effect of them going after the top scorers without other considerations as proposed by the anonymous lurker.
|
|
|
Post by westernalj on Jul 15, 2014 8:21:53 GMT -5
So if the speculation about OMHA is accurate then why is ODAR waiting st all? Why don't they simply make offers to the top scorers all at once like they have in the past? Almost none of us would turn down an offer to go anywhere, right? Why wait for OMHA to make an offer first at all? They get who they want wherever they want now without waiting. Word is, OPM now requires ODAR to get an answer before they can move on. If the answer is no, they have to make another selection.
|
|
|
Post by buckeye on Jul 15, 2014 8:34:50 GMT -5
It seems that the only people that would need time to decide would be the people on both Certs. Otherwise, the people left (and our board members) will say a resounding YES as soon as we get the call. How many more can there possibly be before things start to get moving??
|
|
NP
Full Member
Posts: 82
|
Post by NP on Jul 15, 2014 8:47:46 GMT -5
Here's a scary thought. Let's say our anonymous friend is correct and either because odar just wants the highest scorers or this process means they have to take it that way, they are essentially just going thru and offering people in score order. We started with 168. I figure no more than 5% self eliminated by declining the interview, declining all the cities they certed for or taking another agency's offer. So we are down to 160. Maybe another 5% got a bad ref or came across bad in the interview. So, say we are down to 152. Our polling indicates the median score on this cert is 76 (thanks linky). So, logically 76 of that 152 are above the median. Maybe some of that 76 are gal limited and cant be selected for that reason, but with them trying to get the highest scorers and doing preference based offers, thats likely not many. So 76 of the 90 slots go to folks on this cert with a 76 or higher score. Leaving only 14 slots for those, like yours funkily, who are on the cert but below 76. So, from the 152, they hire 90, leaving 62 folks with above a 73 score, good references, at least a recommend on the interview and many with relatively wide gals. So they do the second cert. Its for 110 slots. Thise 62? The vast majority will be on the second cert. As the highest scorers. Add in those high scorers that missed the first cert due to gal but make the second....could be like 80 folks with scores above 73 on the second. If they continue to hire in score order...that doesnt leave many slots for people below 73. Good news is interviews could go fast. For 110 slots under this new process and based on the first cert, they would likely only get 200 names. And 60'of them may.already have been interviewed. Although I hope it isn't true, I think this is the effect of lurker's analysis, too (and seems plausible based on how things have played out thus far). If it is the case, I am also looking at the second cert unless there are a whole lot of very geographically limited people at the top of the first cert, which I suppose could still be the case.
|
|
NP
Full Member
Posts: 82
|
Post by NP on Jul 15, 2014 8:50:29 GMT -5
I will add that the analysis seems true unless we have reason to believe that the median score on the board is higher than the median score overall. Then they might need to dip down a little further to get the 90.
|
|
|
Post by Gaidin on Jul 15, 2014 9:26:24 GMT -5
I am not certain that OMHA won't end up doing a second cert. They certainly can hire sitting ALJs but they chose not to this time around, at least not entirely. Switching from Denver to KC may have put a serious kink in the feasibility of that (since there is no relo pay).
They keep getting scooped by ODAR and apparently they need the judges. If they can swing this cert between ODAR's 1st and 2nd cert it sounds like a win for everybody.
|
|