Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2016 12:26:55 GMT -5
In the newbie guide stickied above, there is a quote that the most chance you have is 33% of making ALJ because three names are submitted for each opening. But isn't that a 33% chance per opening you are considered for? I also tried to understand the rumored, "three tries and your out" (theory?) that you only get considered three times then you aren't considered anymore. Can someone clear this up for me. Thanks for helping a newbie.
Found the direct quote from the thread:
"8. Getting on a CERTICATE guarantees you at best a 33% chance of eventual selection as an ALJ,"
Maybe I am reading it too literally, but isn't that 33% chance PER CERTIFICATE you are on... not "EVENTUAL selection"?
|
|
|
Post by trickbag on Feb 3, 2016 13:15:51 GMT -5
Theoretically you might have a 1 in 3 chance per cert you're on - IF you are one of the 3 actually in contention for a spot. It's also distinctly possible you are merely "filler" on the cert placed there to ensure enough unique candidates per opening, in which case your chances are zero. Moreover if a qualified candidate is one of the 3 and you're not, your chances likely drop below 1/3. Hence the description "at best."
As to the three strikes, it's discretionary - if you have received 3 bona fide considerations for an opening (i.e., you were actually considered and not just the aforementioned filler) - an agency can choose not to have you included on future certs, but it is not required to strike you.
|
|
|
Post by Gaidin on Feb 3, 2016 13:19:00 GMT -5
Search rule of three and three strikes rule. There is actually a thread on here that explains in detail the differences and answers common questions. trickbag is correct about it but that will probably lead to additional questions.
|
|
|
Post by trickbag on Feb 3, 2016 13:22:45 GMT -5
Good advice from Gaidin and just to clarify, I meant to say above "if a qualified candidate with veteran's preference is one of the 3 and you're not..." but judging by the other thread, the reverse is true for you - thus, your chances may be greater than 1/3, depending on whether the other 2 also have preference.
|
|
|
Post by Pixie on Feb 3, 2016 13:27:42 GMT -5
The more certificates you are on, the better the chance for selection. But each one, taken individually and separately, only gives a 33.3% chance of selection. Of course this doesn't take into consideration how much TPTB want you onboard (or alternatively, don't want you onboard!)
The three and out rule is at the discretion of the agency. That is, the agency can consider a candidate more than three times if it wishes. Pixie.
|
|
|
Post by valkyrie on Feb 3, 2016 13:27:47 GMT -5
Since That was my post, for the most part, I will attempt to tackle this. A selection committee somehow selects a first slot to fill for a particular location. They are required to consider the three candidates that have included that location on their GALs, and have the highest OPM scores, and they select one candidate for an offer. They continue this process one slot at a time until all of the available slots have a candidate selected for an offer. If at any time a candidate has been passed over for a slot three times, the hiring agency is no longer required to consider that candidate for any further slots (the infamous x3 strike rule). There was no real thought given to the actual probability math there, but I think I gave myself some leeway with the "at best" 33%. Lets face it, you only have a 1 out of 3 shot for any given slot, and even then, if you are not chosen for one out of three slots, you may have been "x3 struck" and blackballed. Of course, Yours Truly was passed over three times in multiple certs, yet eventually hired. So just because you are x3 struck, it doesn't necessarily mean that you are blackballed, but they sure as hell don't feel obligated to tell you that, because they obviously have no consideration for the feelings of others, or the fact that they might create serious residual F*&%%*&(*%^%$&*&*$#%^&**ing ANGER ISSUES!!! Along with other symptoms of psychiatric distress such as flight of ideas, paranoid obsessions, and, and, and WHY do you people keep asking ME these questions?!?!
I'm sorry. What were you asking?
|
|
|
Post by Gaidin on Feb 3, 2016 13:28:29 GMT -5
I do not believe you can calculate your odds of getting the job. I will say that if we are calculating the odds from hitting submit on the application then they are much, much lower than 33% and probably in the 1% range.
When I applied in 2013 approximately 6,000 people applied.
Only about 1,200 (and probably less) were invited to DC for testing in 2013.
Of those folks less than 500 have been hired.
You have to make it through testing with an NOR score. Many fine attorneys did not make it through. You have to have an NOR score high enough to get you an interview. You have to have a GAL wide enough to get you interviewed. Then in that interview you need to be so impressive that they recommend you for hiring. Then your NOR has to be high enough to get you into the top 3 for a location on your GAL. Then you have to be more impressive than the other 2 people you are in the top 3 with.
And then they still aren't obligated to hire you.
I don't know how you calculate those odds.
** For almost three years I have been reading that this is a marathon and not a sprint. After reviewing the above and giving this some thought I have decided it is more like the show Ninja Warrior. **
|
|
|
Post by Gaidin on Feb 3, 2016 13:30:30 GMT -5
Since That was my post, for the most part, I will attempt to tackle this. A selection committee somehow selects a first slot to fill for a particular location. They are required to consider the three candidates that have included that location on their GALs, and have the highest OPM scores, and they select one candidate for an offer. They continue this process one slot at a time until all of the available slots have a candidate selected for an offer. If at any time a candidate has been passed over for a slot three times, the hiring agency is no longer required to consider that candidate for any further slots (the infamous x3 strike rule). There was no real thought given to the actual probability math there, but I think I gave myself some leeway with the "at best" 33%. Lets face it, you only have a 1 out of 3 shot for any given slot, and even then, if you are not chosen for one out of three slots, you may have been "x3 struck" and blackballed. Of course, Yours Truly was passed over three times in multiple certs, yet eventually hired. So just because you are x3 struck, it doesn't necessarily mean that you are blackballed, but they sure as hell don't feel obligated to tell you that, because they obviously have no consideration for the feelings of others, or the fact that they might create serious residual F*&%%*&(*%^%$&*&*$#%^&**ing ANGER ISSUES!!! Along with other symptoms of psychiatric distress such as flight of ideas, paranoid obsessions, and, and, and WHY do you people keep asking ME these questions?!?! I'm sorry. What were you asking? I have never read a more cogent explanation of the process' impact on people.
|
|
|
Post by Pixie on Feb 3, 2016 13:34:26 GMT -5
She has more patience than I have, but then that might be due to her association with Wagner.
|
|
|
Post by valkyrie on Feb 3, 2016 14:01:05 GMT -5
Wagner? Wagner?! WAGNER!?!?!? Don't get me started on transfers too!
|
|
|
Post by Pixie on Feb 3, 2016 14:13:36 GMT -5
Wagner, as in Richard Wagner's Die Walküre, the beginning of Act 3, commonly called The Ride of the Valkryies. I thought that was where you got your board name? Pix.
|
|
|
Post by gary on Feb 3, 2016 14:17:32 GMT -5
"Wagner's music is better than it sounds."
-- Mark Twain
|
|
|
Post by Pixie on Feb 3, 2016 14:19:07 GMT -5
"Wagner's music is better than it sounds." -- Mark Twain Yes, especially if one can listen to one opera for six (seems like 10) hours straight.
|
|
|
Post by mercury on Feb 3, 2016 14:47:16 GMT -5
Loge, hor! Sorry for off-topic.
|
|
|
Post by Gaidin on Feb 3, 2016 14:50:20 GMT -5
Thank you so much for the very kind words.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2016 14:51:19 GMT -5
Only about 1,200 (and probably less) were invited to DC for testing in 2013. Of those folks less than 500 have been hired. Well, assuming I get tested and interviewed, 500/1200 chance seems ok, not great, but it is what it is. Maybe more hires off the 2013 list before the new list kicks in could bring the hire rate up to 50% over 3 years. Which isn't horrible. I've always done super-well on standardized tests, which may mean I am a life-underachiever. lol But a great candidate for ALJ.
Are there any stats on the ten point vet bumps? Like how many of the 1200 had that and how many of the 500 had it?
|
|
|
Post by Gaidin on Feb 3, 2016 14:56:04 GMT -5
Only about 1,200 (and probably less) were invited to DC for testing in 2013. Of those folks less than 500 have been hired. Well, assuming I get tested and interviewed, 500/1200 chance seems ok, not great, but it is what it is. Maybe more hires off the 2013 list before the new list kicks in could bring the hire rate up to 50% over 3 years. Which isn't horrible. I've always done super-well on standardized tests, which may mean I am a life-underachiever. lol But a great candidate for ALJ.
Are there any stats on the ten point vet bumps? Like how many of the 1200 had that and how many of the 500 had it?
I believe we polled on that when NORs came out around Feb/Mar 2014. I would look at some of those polls.
|
|
|
Post by phoenixrakkasan on Feb 3, 2016 15:19:55 GMT -5
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2016 15:58:28 GMT -5
soldack if you have the required experience before you became a writer, and now you are a writer with good quality and numbers, and you have vet points, and you are not a tool, and you are willing to start anywhere, I'll give you 33%. No need to try let us know if you are a tool or not, as most tools are not self-aware, and the source info would be invalid. Thanks! 33% over three years is both exciting and depressing.
My GAL is basically east coast and southern states (~20 states total). Does that impact my 33% chance much, if I am not open to all the country? East coast and Southern states seems large to me, but I am new and need to learn a lot from this forum's many wise people!
|
|
|
Post by Gaidin on Feb 3, 2016 16:06:27 GMT -5
soldack if you have the required experience before you became a writer, and now you are a writer with good quality and numbers, and you have vet points, and you are not a tool, and you are willing to start anywhere, I'll give you 33%. No need to try let us know if you are a tool or not, as most tools are not self-aware, and the source info would be invalid. Thanks! 33% over three years is both exciting and depressing.
My GAL is basically east coast and southern states (~20 states total). Does that impact my 33% chance much, if I am not open to all the country? East coast and Southern states seems large to me, but I am new and need to learn a lot from this forum's many wise people!
Do you have Tupelo and Middlesboro on your list? If so you will pop up on a cert after that its up to you.
|
|