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Post by gary on Jun 20, 2016 1:22:27 GMT -5
Ok, as of Sunday night 9:35 pm CST I counted 75 reported acceptances across the 4 polls. First a.s.s.umption, despite not all being confirmed by PM or post, is we have no FFV. Second a.s.s.umption I will make is the 107 that has been vastly reported by many different sources is the total number for June and July. I know there has been some recent Intel that has been interpreted to possibly mean they have the 107 and were going for 35 more. But my sources say it's still a total of 107 and what was meant by that comment is they still then had 35 offers to make to get to the 107. I would gladly be proven wrong. So, 75 from 107 means they still have 32 more offers to make for July. And given the 18 or so July class folks that have reportedly PM the class contact, that 32 number sounds right if the class is to be around 50-54. But, we know we never capture all the hires in polling. Off pure recollection, it seems the best we ever did was like 80% . Even if we reduce the 32 by 20%, that's still 25-26 that will get called this week. Perhaps more. Perhaps many more. Keep your heads up folks. All are still in the game. Even if you don't get the belt this time, champ, you get another fight for it in September. I wanna see the board light up this week. I'm pulling for all of you. Funky If there will be 107 total hired, and if our polls are capturing 80% of those being hired, then: 1. The 75 offers in our polls are likely 80% of the total offers that have been made thus far. In whole numbers that would mean approximately 94 offers have so far been made. 2. If 94 offers have been made so far, that leaves only 13 of the 107 total left to be made. 3. Again assuming an 80% capture rate and rounding to whole numbers, we can expect our polls to show a total of about 86 (approximately 80% of 107) when the hiring dust settles.
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Post by funkyodar on Jun 20, 2016 8:39:15 GMT -5
Ok, as of Sunday night 9:35 pm CST I counted 75 reported acceptances across the 4 polls. First a.s.s.umption, despite not all being confirmed by PM or post, is we have no FFV. Second a.s.s.umption I will make is the 107 that has been vastly reported by many different sources is the total number for June and July. I know there has been some recent Intel that has been interpreted to possibly mean they have the 107 and were going for 35 more. But my sources say it's still a total of 107 and what was meant by that comment is they still then had 35 offers to make to get to the 107. I would gladly be proven wrong. So, 75 from 107 means they still have 32 more offers to make for July. And given the 18 or so July class folks that have reportedly PM the class contact, that 32 number sounds right if the class is to be around 50-54. But, we know we never capture all the hires in polling. Off pure recollection, it seems the best we ever did was like 80% . Even if we reduce the 32 by 20%, that's still 25-26 that will get called this week. Perhaps more. Perhaps many more. Keep your heads up folks. All are still in the game. Even if you don't get the belt this time, champ, you get another fight for it in September. I wanna see the board light up this week. I'm pulling for all of you. Funky If there will be 107 total hired, and if our polls are capturing 80% of those being hired, then: 1. The 75 offers in our polls are likely 80% of the total offers that have been made thus far. In whole numbers that would mean approximately 94 offers have so far been made. 2. If 94 offers have been made so far, that leaves only 13 of the 107 total left to be made. 3. Again assuming an 80% capture rate and rounding to whole numbers, we can expect our polls to show a total of about 86 (approximately 80% of 107) when the hiring dust settles. Well, damn, Captain Math. Your numbers look worse than mine. But, alas, I fear yours are correct as 1) they correctly apply the 80% a.s.s.umption to both the past and future and 2) mine were done under the influence of alcoholic beverage and the epic GoT "Battle of the Bast.ards".
In any event...good luck all.
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Post by Serious, J. on Jun 20, 2016 8:59:57 GMT -5
All math aside, I think they are winding down on the calls for this cert. There may be a few more calls to go, but I think the hiring frenzy we've seen is over and we'll see a trickle over the next few days. And then the FOAD letters.
Based on nothing more than a hunch a/k/a WAG. No inside information, reliable sources, or good authority.
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Post by christina on Jun 20, 2016 9:05:36 GMT -5
All math aside, I think they are winding down on the calls for this cert. There may be a few more calls to go, but I think the hiring frenzy we've seen is over and we'll see a trickle over the next few days. And then the FOAD letters. Based on nothing more than a hunch a/k/a WAG. No inside information, reliable sources, or good authority. most of this has been a trickle with occasional spurts....
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Post by hopefalj on Jun 20, 2016 9:36:25 GMT -5
All math aside, I think they are winding down on the calls for this cert. There may be a few more calls to go, but I think the hiring frenzy we've seen is over and we'll see a trickle over the next few days. And then the FOAD letters. Based on nothing more than a hunch a/k/a WAG. No inside information, reliable sources, or good authority. You may not see FOAD letters since they probably won't close all the cities currently certed, though I guess they could re-request any continuation cities to see if more names pop up in the future. I think you're definitely going to see several new cities on the certs as well as I know there are offices not included in these 81 that have an opening or three.
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Post by tripper on Jun 20, 2016 9:56:32 GMT -5
All math aside, I think they are winding down on the calls for this cert. There may be a few more calls to go, but I think the hiring frenzy we've seen is over and we'll see a trickle over the next few days. And then the FOAD letters. Based on nothing more than a hunch a/k/a WAG. No inside information, reliable sources, or good authority. You may not see FOAD letters since they probably won't close all the cities currently certed, though I guess they could re-request any continuation cities to see if more names pop up in the future. I think you're definitely going to see several new cities on the certs as well as I know there are offices not included in these 81 that have an opening or three.And there are still cities on this cert showing no hires where we know there are multiple openings, like Mt. Pleasant and Tupelo. Do we assume that there are high scorers blocking hiring in those cities? Would it be beneficial in that case to close these certs? I guess those same people would just show up again.
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Post by burwell on Jun 20, 2016 10:04:04 GMT -5
The word Thursday evening was 35 more offers to go. That's the part that matters. Whether it was 35 of the 107 or 35 more after 107, there were 35 to go, with only Friday ahead. I don't think they got out more than 10 Friday, at best.
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Post by christina on Jun 20, 2016 10:07:24 GMT -5
The word Thursday evening was 35 more offers to go. That's the part that matters. Whether it was 35 of the 107 or 35 more after 107, there were 35 to go, with only Friday ahead. I don't think they got out more than 10 Friday, at best. agreed. and that part of the word sounds consistent across odar internally
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Post by burwell on Jun 20, 2016 10:11:43 GMT -5
The word Thursday evening was 35 more offers to go. That's the part that matters. Whether it was 35 of the 107 or 35 more after 107, there were 35 to go, with only Friday ahead. I don't think they got out more than 10 Friday, at best. agreed. and that part of the word sounds consistent across odar internally Right. And consistent with the fact that they only recently even started hiring for the July class. That class can't be more than half full at this point.
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Post by raylan on Jun 20, 2016 10:27:24 GMT -5
I just received word that calls are continuing today.
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Post by anotherfed on Jun 20, 2016 10:47:03 GMT -5
My WAG, for what it's worth, is that the remaining 35 will be evenly split between Mt Pleasant and Tupelo (Mt P gets first pick). Well, ... er, maybe not evenly. The 35th new ALJ will be travelling between Mt P and Tupelo. Wouldn't want to split him/her, that could be messy...
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Post by Pixie on Jun 20, 2016 10:55:03 GMT -5
My WAG, for what it's worth, is that the remaining 35 will be evenly split between Mt Pleasant and Tupelo (Mt P gets first pick). Well, ... er, maybe not evenly. The 35th new ALJ will be travelling between Mt P and Tupelo. Wouldn't want to split him/her, that could be messy... Ha! Christina would like it even less.
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Post by funkyodar on Jun 20, 2016 10:57:41 GMT -5
My WAG, for what it's worth, is that the remaining 35 will be evenly split between Mt Pleasant and Tupelo (Mt P gets first pick). Well, ... er, maybe not evenly. The 35th new ALJ will be travelling between Mt P and Tupelo. Wouldn't want to split him/her, that could be messy... Ha! Christina would like it even less. Nah, Christina would be perfect for the dual role. She could have red hair in Tupelo and green in Mt Pleasant.
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Post by christina on Jun 20, 2016 11:03:35 GMT -5
Ha! Christina would like it even less. Nah, Christina would be perfect for the dual role. She could have red hair in Tupelo and green in Mt Pleasant. and we def have to follow Gary's recommendation of Tupelo in the summer and Mt P in the winter!!!! except i think he was talking about Ga. not mississippi. Still, it works. i could change my hair every time i cross a county er, "i mean" state line!!!!
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Post by christina on Jun 20, 2016 11:04:12 GMT -5
Ha! Christina would like it even less. Nah, Christina would be perfect for the dual role. She could have red hair in Tupelo and green in Mt Pleasant. and funky would want me as a redhead in Tupelo!!!!
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Post by raylan on Jun 20, 2016 11:05:48 GMT -5
My WAG, for what it's worth, is that the remaining 35 will be evenly split between Mt Pleasant and Tupelo (Mt P gets first pick). Well, ... er, maybe not evenly. The 35th new ALJ will be travelling between Mt P and Tupelo. Wouldn't want to split him/her, that could be messy... Good news @anotherfed, because the person I know who got the call today was for Mt. Pleasant.
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Post by anotherfed on Jun 20, 2016 11:54:01 GMT -5
My WAG, for what it's worth, is that the remaining 35 will be evenly split between Mt Pleasant and Tupelo (Mt P gets first pick). Well, ... er, maybe not evenly. The 35th new ALJ will be travelling between Mt P and Tupelo. Wouldn't want to split him/her, that could be messy... Good news @anotherfed, because the person I know who got the call today was for Mt. Pleasant. Two thumbs up!!!
Hahahahahaha Tupelo, Mt. P wins!
raylan, would it be possible for your friend to vote in the polls? Or ask a trusted Board member to vote on his/her behalf? I just want to see a vote for lonely Mt. P...
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Updog
Member
Do I know what rhetorical means?!?
Posts: 29
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Post by Updog on Jun 20, 2016 11:57:50 GMT -5
I received the call from Bob this morning and accepted immediately. I will start in July. Bob confirmed that he's still got more calls to make, and that he should finish early this week. I figured with as much help as members of this Board have provided me, I wanted to make sure to pass it forward and give yall info.
On a personal note, in high school I participated in Youth in Government through the YMCA. The first year I competed as an attorney, and the second as a judge. In the second year, the adult-judges sent me to the state competition where I served as a state Supreme Court justice. In addition to sitting in the same seats where the state Supreme Court justices sat, I also received a black judge's robe. I saved the robe and look forward to donning it as an ALJ.
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Post by Serious, J. on Jun 20, 2016 12:04:24 GMT -5
Congrats, Updog!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2016 12:05:59 GMT -5
Way to go Judge Updog!
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