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Post by foghorn on Aug 9, 2017 15:29:19 GMT -5
I have been on a hiatus and checked back in only to find this major issue! So it maybe way too early to be pontificating but what in the world to do? To have made it all the way except the WD and to have filed an appeal. I am terrified to simply blindly start all over again knowing that some pencil head or computer glitch could arbitrarily end my chances way earlier. Some of the post I've read talked about this refresh occurring more frequently in the future. I am just really torn about what to do if our appeals are not decided which seems like they will not be. I guess one thought would be to stick with the appeal and if you lose it simply wait until another refresh? Or understanding that so few appeals are successful abandon the appeal and start all over. For those of you all that are in this boat what say you? I'm in your boat. Completely flummoxed on what to do. I was wondering though what happens to our appeals if we reapply....are the appeals automatically dropped? Say my WD has already been rescored in the appeal process with a favorable outcome but we don't know this yet because they are releasing all appeals at the same time. If I reapply, do I lose that favorable appeal outcome?
Even if they do rescore, if you get an NOR of 54, not sure you'll be super happy.
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Post by ediemcgee on Aug 10, 2017 10:22:42 GMT -5
This is crazy. How? What? Maybe OPM caught a lot of political flack for cutting so many people after the D.C. stage? This was my thought- that they ended up with far fewer people than they expected. Curious here. How many people ended up on the register as a result of the 2016 vacancy announcement/testing cycle? Out of how many overall applicants? Anyone have a clue? |
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Post by fowlfinder on Aug 10, 2017 10:33:51 GMT -5
The current thought is that about a 1000 were added from the refresh and about 300 were pre-existing on the register, for a current approximate total of 1300 on the register.
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Post by judgymcjudgypants on Aug 10, 2017 10:58:21 GMT -5
My rule of thumb was to assume anyone in jeans was a Board member, while those in suits were not.
I was on the down low that day, so wore neither jeans nor formal suit.
Not all Board members want to out themselves at testing, BTW.
If you want to announce your test date and solicit a Board buddy who shares your date, that's been done.
J
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Post by denise on Aug 10, 2017 11:18:37 GMT -5
This was my thought- that they ended up with far fewer people than they expected. Curious here. How many people ended up on the register as a result of the 2016 vacancy announcement/testing cycle? Out of how many overall applicants? Anyone have a clue? OPM reportedly received over 5,000 applications. |
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Post by Pixie on Aug 10, 2017 11:23:20 GMT -5
That's the number I remember as well. That makes it a washout rate of 80% I wonder if that was by design or by accident?
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Post by judgymcjudgypants on Aug 10, 2017 11:29:28 GMT -5
It was the LBMT.
Just kidding.
J
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Post by aa7 on Aug 10, 2017 11:50:41 GMT -5
That's the number I remember as well. That makes it a washout rate of 80% I wonder if that was by design or by accident?I wanna know this too! I think meaning that a lot of qualified people were cut, especially at the DC blood bath of ~50%. With this very soon thereafter refresh, I bet they will be getting a lot of the same people applying and making the register. So what a waste of time and money that was to cut that many from the 2016 refresh. My WAG is that there was a rogue retired ALJ grader who failed a lot of people on the WD, people who would have passed with another grader. But that's based on nothing. Some intel on what is up at OPM would be nice.
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Post by Ace Midnight on Aug 10, 2017 12:48:44 GMT -5
That's the number I remember as well. That makes it a washout rate of 80% I wonder if that was by design or by accident? At a certain point, perhaps that's a distinction without substance. Regardless, these numbers (anecdotally, anyway) are fairly consistent with the 2013 application numbers. Something like 5000 applicants was the number tossed out and between 1000 and 1200 received scores at the other end of the process. Some folks got back in the mix upon appeal, but I think they numbered in the dozens, not hundreds. So this process seems more selective as it goes on. The cut point for previous registers seemed to be at the application stage. Since the app only opened for a couple of days, one had to be poised and ready to strike. However, if you got past the preliminaries, you usually got to the register. Now, the process cuts a significant number of folks at the app and online testing stage, and there is still the risk of not getting a score if you go all the way to OPM. Previously, testing in D.C. all but assured you a place (however humbly situated) on the register. |
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Post by foghorn on Aug 10, 2017 12:52:24 GMT -5
That's the number I remember as well. That makes it a washout rate of 80% I wonder if that was by design or by accident?I wanna know this too! I think meaning that a lot of qualified people were cut, especially at the DC blood bath of ~50%. With this very soon thereafter refresh, I bet they will be getting a lot of the same people applying and making the register. So what a waste of time and money that was to cut that many from the 2016 refresh. My WAG is that there was a rogue retired ALJ grader who failed a lot of people on the WD, people who would have passed with another grader. But that's based on nothing. Some intel on what is up at OPM would be nice.
In a way, does it matter? If you got your NOR, you don't have to worry about a new group for at least 15 months from whenever they kick off the new round. If you didn't get a NOR, most of us are happy, some are conflicted, but no one is distressed on our side of the fence:we're happy they did, whatever the reason. We love pain--hit us again! But as long as we are speculating, I find it curious that many of those cut from SI and WD had a good amount of experience, and wonder if they also found that they wound up with fewer experienced people then they wanted. However, for whatever reason they are re-opening, and I'm not assuming because I got through the online that I can take it easy--reviewing my resume for things I missed, competencies I didn't sufficiently burnish, re check each competency so it cries out for recognition.......& OPM love. |
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Post by bayou on Aug 10, 2017 12:56:12 GMT -5
This was my thought- that they ended up with far fewer people than they expected. Curious here. How many people ended up on the register as a result of the 2016 vacancy announcement/testing cycle? Out of how many overall applicants? Anyone have a clue? there was congressional hearing testimony near the start of the 2016 which stated there was approximately 5600 applicants there was a thread discussing it with links to the transcripts
during dc testing sophie ran a thread in which we counted the number of people who tested at dc and the final count was in the 2200 range
the polling we did on the Voldemort status prior to the release of NORs indicated a 50% cut after the dc testing
so the reasonable guess is that approximately 1100 new souls were added to the existing register in june
guessing the number of persons on the register from 13/15 is a bit more difficult there was discussion of the number in the congressional testimony discussed above but i cant recall the number off the top of my head i want to say 600 but im not sure
plus there was hiring from the register after the congressional testimony and before the NORs were issued so my guess is about 300 existing people were on the register but that is a really loose guess
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Post by foghorn on Aug 10, 2017 13:07:21 GMT -5
Nice intel collation and analysis Bayou!
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Post by montyburns on Aug 10, 2017 13:13:56 GMT -5
Bayou's stats accord with my memory. I would expect similar results this time, other than perhaps less overall initial applicants (hey RCALJs, let's NOT post the OPM notice in the waiting area - I'm trying to get on the register here dammit!).
To me it's clear they took the higher and lower scoring subgroups at once in 16 (bonus points- how many scoring subgroups are there?) and thus the "slaughter" in DC. Maybe they figure they'll run it every 15 months and just cull the top 20%. Even at that rate, the register will still be well stocked with thousands of applicants by 2022. Not to mention repeat applicants may get exam fatigue and stop trying.
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Post by foghorn on Aug 10, 2017 13:29:25 GMT -5
exam fatigue? Never! We love it!
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Post by roymcavoy on Aug 10, 2017 13:31:51 GMT -5
Curious here. How many people ended up on the register as a result of the 2016 vacancy announcement/testing cycle? Out of how many overall applicants? Anyone have a clue? there was congressional hearing testimony near the start of the 2016 which stated there was approximately 5600 applicants there was a thread discussing it with links to the transcripts
during dc testing sophie ran a thread in which we counted the number of people who tested at dc and the final count was in the 2200 range
the polling we did on the Voldemort status prior to the release of NORs indicated a 50% cut after the dc testing
so the reasonable guess is that approximately 1100 new souls were added to the existing register in june
guessing the number of persons on the register from 13/15 is a bit more difficult there was discussion of the number in the congressional testimony discussed above but i cant recall the number off the top of my head i want to say 600 but im not sure
plus there was hiring from the register after the congressional testimony and before the NORs were issued so my guess is about 300 existing people were on the register but that is a really loose guess
I think the congressional testimony preceded the opening of the application in Mar 2016, and accordingly referenced the 2013 applicants. There was another document or indication made by someone--SSA or OPM--that indicated a number similar to the 2013 number--I remember 5200 for some reason (because I remember being amazed that fewer applied in '16 than '13). |
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Post by hopefulop on Aug 10, 2017 13:54:06 GMT -5
Bayou's stats accord with my memory. I would expect similar results this time, other than perhaps less overall initial applicants (hey RCALJs, let's NOT post the OPM notice in the waiting area - I'm trying to get on the register here dammit!). To me it's clear they took the higher and lower scoring subgroups at once in 16 (bonus points- how many scoring subgroups are there?) and thus the "slaughter" in DC. Maybe they figure they'll run it every 15 months and just cull the top 20%. Even at that rate, the register will still be well stocked with thousands of applicants by 2022. Not to mention repeat applicants may get exam fatigue and stop trying. "Run it every 15 months" sure doesn't sound like a good use of federal resources -- but what do I know
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Post by gary on Aug 10, 2017 14:01:12 GMT -5
My rule of thumb was to assume anyone in jeans was a Board member, while those in suits were not. I was on the down low that day, so wore neither jeans nor formal suit. Not all Board members want to out themselves at testing, BTW. If you want to announce your test date and solicit a Board buddy who shares your date, that's been done. J "I was on the down low that day, so wore neither jeans nor formal suit." Birthday suit makes a strong statement. |
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Post by montyburns on Aug 10, 2017 14:14:05 GMT -5
Bayou's stats accord with my memory. I would expect similar results this time, other than perhaps less overall initial applicants (hey RCALJs, let's NOT post the OPM notice in the waiting area - I'm trying to get on the register here dammit!). To me it's clear they took the higher and lower scoring subgroups at once in 16 (bonus points- how many scoring subgroups are there?) and thus the "slaughter" in DC. Maybe they figure they'll run it every 15 months and just cull the top 20%. Even at that rate, the register will still be well stocked with thousands of applicants by 2022. Not to mention repeat applicants may get exam fatigue and stop trying. "Run it every 15 months" sure doesn't sound like a good use of federal resources -- but what do I know
Well sure, to people with normal brains like you and I it seems dumb but - and I say this with great surety - this has been thought up by people with the best brains. I mean you'd also think it was stupid to build a transparent border wall so you could see the bales of cocaine being thrown over and avoid being crushed by them. But these are the sort of contingencies that the best brains intuitively detect. |
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Post by bayou on Aug 10, 2017 14:21:48 GMT -5
there was congressional hearing testimony near the start of the 2016 which stated there was approximately 5600 applicants there was a thread discussing it with links to the transcripts
during dc testing sophie ran a thread in which we counted the number of people who tested at dc and the final count was in the 2200 range
the polling we did on the Voldemort status prior to the release of NORs indicated a 50% cut after the dc testing
so the reasonable guess is that approximately 1100 new souls were added to the existing register in june
guessing the number of persons on the register from 13/15 is a bit more difficult there was discussion of the number in the congressional testimony discussed above but i cant recall the number off the top of my head i want to say 600 but im not sure
plus there was hiring from the register after the congressional testimony and before the NORs were issued so my guess is about 300 existing people were on the register but that is a really loose guess
I think the congressional testimony preceded the opening of the application in Mar 2016, and accordingly referenced the 2013 applicants. There was another document or indication made by someone--SSA or OPM--that indicated a number similar to the 2013 number--I remember 5200 for some reason (because I remember being amazed that fewer applied in '16 than '13). here is the thread it was definitely the numbers for the 16 refresh
edit to say ignore the first post which has an incorrect number that is corrected later in the thread
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Post by Mermaid on Aug 10, 2017 14:26:10 GMT -5
Que sera, sera ...
It takes too much energy to figure out what OPM/SSA/AnyOtherAgency were thinking when they made the decision to have a 2017 ALJ exam and reopen the register.
Just going to roll with the punches until I get an offer or a FOAD letter.
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