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Post by roymcavoy on Apr 16, 2020 8:41:38 GMT -5
2017-2018 Influenza Season (Oct 2017 to May 2018 - 8 months): 45 Million infected; 61,000 deaths. 2018-2019 Influenza Season (Oct 2018 to May 2019 - 8 months): 35 Million infected; 34,200 deaths. 2020 Covid-19 (March 1, 2020 to April 16, 2020 - 6 weeks): 639,664 infected; 30,985 deaths. (Updating daily). I realize you aren’t making it, but this equation is the argument that astounds me the most. At its peak, the 2017-18 flu season killed 4,000 people in one *week*—CV19 has killed nearly 4,900 in the past two *days*. |
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Post by Pixie on Apr 16, 2020 10:27:13 GMT -5
I know, the info in the top 2 lines is from CDC, and the Covid numbers are from John Hopkins University, so I cannot vouch for its accuracy. But I'm going to keep updating it with what they put out going forward just for comparisons. (But is does make you wonder how they are getting their numbers. Even the media outlets are only reporting just over 2000 in a single day as of April 8th). It will be interesting to see how the rate of increase is effected when they ease social distancing, etc. If what JHU is reporting is near accurate, then it is very telling how many people have already died even with all of the extraordinary and drastic measures taken thus far.The new cases and deaths have been slowing in the last few days, probably due to the drastic measures taken. If the measures are working, and they should be, then the numbers will slow even more in the next few weeks. Pixie |
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Post by roymcavoy on Apr 16, 2020 12:43:00 GMT -5
I know, the info in the top 2 lines is from CDC, and the Covid numbers are from John Hopkins University, so I cannot vouch for its accuracy. But I'm going to keep updating it with what they put out going forward just for comparisons. (But is does make you wonder how they are getting their numbers. Even the media outlets are only reporting just over 2000 in a single day as of April 8th). It will be interesting to see how the rate of increase is effected when they ease social distancing, etc. If what JHU is reporting is near accurate, then it is very telling how many people have already died even with all of the extraordinary and drastic measures taken thus far. and healthcare experts think the death total is likely under-reporting the real number due to not wanting to “waste” tests on folks who died during this period from covid-like symptoms but had not been diagnosed |
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Post by roymcavoy on Apr 16, 2020 12:59:49 GMT -5
2017-2018 Influenza Season (Oct 2017 to May 2018 - 8 months): 45 Million infected; 61,000 deaths. 2018-2019 Influenza Season (Oct 2018 to May 2019 - 8 months): 35 Million infected; 34,200 deaths. 2020 Covid-19 (March 1, 2020 to April 16, 2020 - 6 weeks): 639,733 infected; 30,990 deaths. (Updating daily). I’d add another thing about these numbers (I love numbers and the stories they tell). The current numbers correlates to a mortality rate of 4.8%, which is far higher than projected US mortality rate of 1-1.2%. While some people think this means that we have more serious cases than anticipated, I personally think it shows the gap between confirmed cases and actual cases. At a mortality rate of 1.2%, 30,990 deaths *should* equate to 2,582,500 infections. This means, of course, that there are approximately 1,942,767 people in the US who are/have been infected but have not been tested or confirmed to have the virus. |
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Post by Wynona Writer on Apr 17, 2020 10:38:46 GMT -5
2017-2018 Influenza Season (Oct 2017 to May 2018 - 8 months): 45 Million infected; 61,000 deaths. 2018-2019 Influenza Season (Oct 2018 to May 2019 - 8 months): 35 Million infected; 34,200 deaths. 2020 Covid-19 (March 1, 2020 to April 16, 2020 - 6 weeks): 639,733 infected; 30,990 deaths. (Updating daily). I’d add another thing about these numbers (I love numbers and the stories they tell). The current numbers correlates to a mortality rate of 4.8%, which is far higher than projected US mortality rate of 1-1.2%. While some people think this means that we have more serious cases than anticipated, I personally think it shows the gap between confirmed cases and actual cases. At a mortality rate of 1.2%, 30,990 deaths *should* equate to 2,582,500 infections. This means, of course, that there are approximately 1,942,767 people in the US who are/have been infected but have not been tested or confirmed to have the virus. And this is assuming that the official death toll is accurate. We have already been told that only people who tested positive before they died are being counted. |
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Post by roymcavoy on Apr 22, 2020 8:32:09 GMT -5
I’d add another thing about these numbers (I love numbers and the stories they tell). The current numbers correlates to a mortality rate of 4.8%, which is far higher than projected US mortality rate of 1-1.2%. While some people think this means that we have more serious cases than anticipated, I personally think it shows the gap between confirmed cases and actual cases. At a mortality rate of 1.2%, 30,990 deaths *should* equate to 2,582,500 infections. This means, of course, that there are approximately 1,942,767 people in the US who are/have been infected but have not been tested or confirmed to have the virus. This article appears to support your analysis. www.courthousenews.com/antibody-testing-reveals-covid-19-cases-could-top-440000-in-la-county/ I think when this is all over we will find out that there was far more CV-19 exposure than we had any idea about. The severe impact on healthy doctors, nurses, etc (thank you all for all you do!!) by the CV infection seems to indicate a difference not only between the underlying health condition of the patient, but also that there may be a difference in severity between the virus being passed via fomites and through person to person contact. I have a friend from college who is a DPM and has a referral agreement with a General Practice doctor in her town, which has a state university in it. My friend told me that she referred 25-30 people with flu symptoms in Dec-Jan to the GP, but only 4 of them tested positive. The GP recently told her that out of nearly 250 flu tests he performed in Dec/Jan, only 40 or so were positive. The GP did some research and there was an international studies class that returned from—you guessed it—China in early December. He told her none of the people he tested died, which is good news. But it raises the specter that maybe contact cases occurred that far back that were less severe than later cases While it’s WAY TOO EARLY to know, I’ll bet what we learn down the road is that we had mild cases in US as far back as December, and they were spread during the holidays. |
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Post by arkstfan on Apr 24, 2020 1:30:44 GMT -5
Reportedly surpassed flu season deaths for last year (even though no one quarantined for the flu). Thing is about the flu argument, few years ago we had a bad flu outbreak here. Most schools closed, nursing homes were closed to visitors, my doctor required masks on all patients as did some local emergency rooms, a few factories shut down because of absenteeism. The just the flu people can’t seem to remember we have had to take fairly drastic measures for flu outbreaks that caused fewer deaths. |
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Post by Pixie on Apr 24, 2020 6:44:29 GMT -5
Reportedly surpassed flu season deaths for last year (even though no one quarantined for the flu). Thing is about the flu argument, few years ago we had a bad flu outbreak here. Most schools closed, nursing homes were closed to visitors, my doctor required masks on all patients as did some local emergency rooms, a few factories shut down because of absenteeism. The just the flu people can’t seem to remember we have had to take fairly drastic measures for flu outbreaks that caused fewer deaths. I have heard them called, "Deniers" elsewhere. Pixie |
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Post by jagvet on Apr 24, 2020 8:57:10 GMT -5
Hey, folks, let's have some perspective. Our institutions have been pretty successfully dealing with flu outbreaks for decades because vaccines are widely available, the symptoms were standard and easy to recognize. Measures taken were never "drastic" in anywhere the scale we have now. Severe flu symptom outbreaks have been rare and localized (generally among unvaccinated people). This whole coronavirus is different. An early thinking that it was "just the flu," even if wrong, is understandable. Until it really got going, no one, not even all the smarty-pants on this board, realized how bad it would be until it was. I have a friend in critical condition now, a young father, and I know of at least a dozen acquaintances who have died.
I look at medical records all day, and I still have very little confidence in my understanding of how to deal with corona. I do not envy government officials who are trying to figure out how best to handle things without throwing the country into a depression. I just pray that they make good decisions. I won't criticize if they make some mistakes.
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Post by lurkerbelow on Apr 27, 2020 10:11:06 GMT -5
So should most Americans ease social distancing and test the "herd immunity" by returning to somewhat normal operations? I'll pass, personally. Not until we know what the hell is going on and things settle down. |
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Post by JudgeKnot on Apr 29, 2020 11:11:14 GMT -5
I remain skeptical anytime someone reports a number of deaths "caused" by Covid-19. "The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated its website this week to explicitly say that cases where the infection was not confirmed by a test may now be counted. But attributing a death to the virus can be a judgment call, experts say, and potentially a vexing one as indications emerge that the disease damages not just the lungs but also the heart, kidneys and other organs. As a result, the overall tally — a benchmark broadcast constantly on cable news and elsewhere — is a less concrete figure than it appears. The inconsistent counting methods also raise questions about the ability to draw comparisons from state to state, and they play into a political debate about the reliability of the numbers."
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Post by mrmojo on Apr 29, 2020 14:23:21 GMT -5
I remain skeptical anytime someone reports a number of deaths "caused" by Covid-19. "The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated its website this week to explicitly say that cases where the infection was not confirmed by a test may now be counted. But attributing a death to the virus can be a judgment call, experts say, and potentially a vexing one as indications emerge that the disease damages not just the lungs but also the heart, kidneys and other organs. As a result, the overall tally — a benchmark broadcast constantly on cable news and elsewhere — is a less concrete figure than it appears. The inconsistent counting methods also raise questions about the ability to draw comparisons from state to state, and they play into a political debate about the reliability of the numbers." I think it's a hard thing to ascertain. We still don't have enough tests, so we're not getting proper data from people who are dying at home, be it from COVID-19 or from other conditions that would have been treated if not for this emergency. That said, we're able to look at data from prior years to ascertain "excess mortality". The New York Times has a good summary of the issue, including looking at some numbers both here in the US and abroad. www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.htmlFor some more discussion about the question of excess mortality, take a look at talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/more-from-the-annals-of-excess-mortality |
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Post by roymcavoy on May 2, 2020 16:19:14 GMT -5
There has to be way more infected than what has been reported. So, although the overall mortality rate may be lower than what is reported, the death rate is still pretty extreme considering the social distancing measure undertaken. It is encouraging to hear the non-symptomatic are displaying antibodies. So should most Americans ease social distancing and test the "herd immunity" by returning to somewhat normal operations? Herd immunity is generally attainable at approximately 40% of the population having the bug or having antibodies from it. Currently, the US population is 328million, so 40% is 131.2 million. As I noted above, while we have 1.154 million or so confirmed cases in US, the death toll of 67,000 and the presumed 1% mortality rate indicates a likelihood that some 6.7million people have contracted the virus. Thus, in order to go full scale “open” and achieve herd immunity, 124.5 million more people will need to contract the virus, meaning that 1,245,000 or (likely) more people will die to achieve herd immunity. So I say “no.” |
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Post by workdrone on May 2, 2020 17:08:16 GMT -5
I think this article from TPM re COVID-19 IFR provides a pretty good rough estimate based on the numbers from NYC: talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/in-search-of-the-covid19-ifrFor those of you who don't want to read the entire article, the raw death rate based on NYC numbers is about 0.878%. Of course, based available research, the actual odds of survival would vary based on age, health condition, etc. So if you are a young health person, your odds would be significantly better than the raw death rate. However, if you're over 60 and have heart condition, diabetes or other serious medical conditions, your chance of dying from a COVID-19 infection is probably significantly worse than the 0.878% raw rate. Someone once said we're all playing the odds in the game of life. So the bottom line as the country gradually start to reopen without a vaccine is "Do you feel lucky?" |
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Post by Orly on May 2, 2020 17:23:38 GMT -5
Someone once said we're all playing the odds in the game of life. So the bottom line as we gradually start to reopen without a vaccine is "Do you feel lucky?" Ohhh. I can't resist a good Internet mime:  via Imgflip Meme Generator |
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Post by hopefalj on May 2, 2020 19:10:52 GMT -5
Someone once said we're all playing the odds in the game of life. So the bottom line as we gradually start to reopen without a vaccine is "Do you feel lucky?" Ohhh. I can't resist a good Internet mime:  |
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Post by Pixie on May 3, 2020 7:00:48 GMT -5
Someone once said we're all playing the odds in the game of life. So the bottom line as we gradually start to reopen without a vaccine is "Do you feel lucky?" Ohhh. I can't resist a good Internet mime: Welcome back Orly; We haven't seen you in a couple of years. Pixie |
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Post by nylawyer on May 3, 2020 7:48:10 GMT -5
I remain skeptical anytime someone reports a number of deaths "caused" by Covid-19. "The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated its website this week to explicitly say that cases where the infection was not confirmed by a test may now be counted. But attributing a death to the virus can be a judgment call, experts say, and potentially a vexing one as indications emerge that the disease damages not just the lungs but also the heart, kidneys and other organs. As a result, the overall tally — a benchmark broadcast constantly on cable news and elsewhere — is a less concrete figure than it appears. The inconsistent counting methods also raise questions about the ability to draw comparisons from state to state, and they play into a political debate about the reliability of the numbers." I think it's a hard thing to ascertain. We still don't have enough tests, so we're not getting proper data from people who are dying at home, be it from COVID-19 or from other conditions that would have been treated if not for this emergency. That said, we're able to look at data from prior years to ascertain "excess mortality". The New York Times has a good summary of the issue, including looking at some numbers both here in the US and abroad. www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.htmlFor some more discussion about the question of excess mortality, take a look at talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/more-from-the-annals-of-excess-mortalityWhile excess mortality data does provide some insight as to whether we are accurately counting the deaths attributable to COVID 19, it comes with some serious caveats. The most obvious is, are there any other unusual circumstances? Also, what how much variance is there in the data year to year? Finally- what about deaths that were indirectly caused by COVID 19? The people who aren't able to get the medical care that they otherwise would. While it is fair to label their deaths as COVID 19 related, they ought not be going in the numerator of any formula calculating the mortality rate of the virus. |
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Post by SPN Lifer on May 3, 2020 13:06:38 GMT -5
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Post by Orly on May 3, 2020 13:36:37 GMT -5
Ohhh. I can't resist a good Internet mime: Welcome back Orly; We haven't seen you in a couple of years. Pixie Thanks! Glad to see the Board is doing well! All is well with me, just holding phone hearings like everyone else.  |
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