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Post by nylawyer on May 13, 2020 13:16:00 GMT -5
I doubt it, at least not in the short or medium term. Besides the fact that interviewing and training would be hobbled by current conditions, whatever tidal wave of applications may be coming is not here yet. The agency has excess capacity at the moment, and even once things return to normal that capacity will keep the numbers down for a while.
The wildcard would be if the pandemic alters the number of ALJs. Maybe some retire a little earlier than they otherwise might have.
Otoh, even with a lot of the losses recovered, the stock market did just have a heart attack less than two months ago, and that may extend some careers.
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Post by lurkerbelow on May 13, 2020 13:20:07 GMT -5
I cannot conceive of a reason for SSA to significantly alter its structure at this time. Confusing people is not politically popular at the moment.
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Post by arkstfan on May 14, 2020 1:55:09 GMT -5
you are exactly right. PACs score also used to be a multiplier component in the point computation (“last PACs x 7”) for Senior Attorney jobs. I was told by HOD last spring that they would no longer be using PACs for hiring (I asked about ALJ), so maybe they realize these are too subjective for accuracy. as I noted somewhere earlier in this thread, the 2018 DW hires in our office were done under a NTE 4 years, so any DW RIF would presumably start with those who have not been made permanent from that hire. I just don't see a RIF happening at OHO. With unemployment now over 20%, I think we will soon see a flood of applications at the DDS level. If they haven't started yet, I don't think it will be long. Pixie We aren’t allowed to sign unfavorable terminations for people in pay status. Right now pumping money in the economy even via poor people is the priority.
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Post by arkstfan on May 14, 2020 2:04:27 GMT -5
A bit back someone posted the agency wants to get to 1300 something ALJs. Based on the numbers on Hall’s blog looks likely end of the third quarter of the fiscal year (3Q ends in June) we will be below 1400 and on pace for whatever that number was in the near future
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Post by roymcavoy on May 14, 2020 8:25:29 GMT -5
A bit back someone posted the agency wants to get to 1300 something ALJs. Based on the numbers on Hall’s blog looks likely end of the third quarter of the fiscal year (3Q ends in June) we will be below 1400 and on pace for whatever that number was in the near future I think 1320 was the number indicated in whatever iteration of the SSA budgetary request submitted last spring for FY 2020 (now, ending Sep 30). I think the big thing is that there are just too many variables to make any hiring decision. If this were not a pandemic situation with the economy in some sort of freefall/uncertainty, the lack of decisions to be written would surely be reason to cut writers. But everyone who has been with SSA long enough knows that economic downturns eventually cause an increase applications. So RIFing a bunch of folks right now might only necessitate a hiring in the future, which would cost additional money with training, etc. The caveat being no one knows when the surge will hit or how big it will be. Right now, district offices are closed so initial apps are theoretically being limited, and there is a time gap between denial, reconsideration, and a request for hearing. Additionally, as I recall, unemployment benefits were extended to 36 or 39 weeks in the first CV bill. All of this will likely lengthen the delay before the app increase.
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Post by patiently on May 14, 2020 9:45:22 GMT -5
Any info on management ALJ hiring? They rescinded one NHC announcement (but not the other) and to my knowledge have not extended HOCALJ offers on any of the multiple postings that were having interviews conducted shortly before our change in operational status.
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Post by samone on May 14, 2020 11:26:37 GMT -5
Which announcement did they rescind?
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Post by ssaogc on May 14, 2020 13:48:01 GMT -5
Which announcement did they rescind? There was a NHC job announcement from 2019 that was rescinded for unk reasons. It had closed long time ago.
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Post by ssaogc on May 14, 2020 13:48:47 GMT -5
Any info on management ALJ hiring? They rescinded one NHC announcement (but not the other) and to my knowledge have not extended HOCALJ offers on any of the multiple postings that were having interviews conducted shortly before our change in operational status. Many offices are running with remote Acting HOCALJs. In many places the HOD is actually driving the bus
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Post by nappyloxs on May 15, 2020 1:53:57 GMT -5
A bit back someone posted the agency wants to get to 1300 something ALJs. Based on the numbers on Hall’s blog looks likely end of the third quarter of the fiscal year (3Q ends in June) we will be below 1400 and on pace for whatever that number was in the near future I think 1320 was the number indicated in whatever iteration of the SSA budgetary request submitted last spring for FY 2020 (now, ending Sep 30). I think the big thing is that there are just too many variables to make any hiring decision. If this were not a pandemic situation with the economy in some sort of freefall/uncertainty, the lack of decisions to be written would surely be reason to cut writers. But everyone who has been with SSA long enough knows that economic downturns eventually cause an increase applications. So RIFing a bunch of folks right now might only necessitate a hiring in the future, which would cost additional money with training, etc. The caveat being no one knows when the surge will hit or how big it will be. Right now, district offices are closed so initial apps are theoretically being limited, and there is a time gap between denial, reconsideration, and a request for hearing. Additionally, as I recall, unemployment benefits were extended to 36 or 39 weeks in the first CV bill. All of this will likely lengthen the delay before the app increase. April and May’s reports will tell a lot. According to March’s report, there are 1320 ALJs available. There was already a backlog at the DDS. Since people can only apply online currently, there will be a lag in applications until offices open. Everyone expects an increase in applications because of CV19. I could foresee ALJ hiring later this year or next year, because of the ALJs learning curve. SSA can hire soon and train new ALJs prior to these new cases get to OHO.
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Post by villedonna on May 15, 2020 10:23:13 GMT -5
I'm just a little fish, but 46% of the cases in my disability law office are at the initial or reconsideration stage. In April 2019, it was 17%. In April 2018, it was 18%. We are not necessarily seeing increased traffic, but increased new applications. Fewer people are coming in that already have a case pending at the hearing office. Also, we have a handful of cases on hold at the initial/recon level waiting for CEs.
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Post by hopefalj on May 15, 2020 10:56:23 GMT -5
I think 1320 was the number indicated in whatever iteration of the SSA budgetary request submitted last spring for FY 2020 (now, ending Sep 30). I think the big thing is that there are just too many variables to make any hiring decision. If this were not a pandemic situation with the economy in some sort of freefall/uncertainty, the lack of decisions to be written would surely be reason to cut writers. But everyone who has been with SSA long enough knows that economic downturns eventually cause an increase applications. So RIFing a bunch of folks right now might only necessitate a hiring in the future, which would cost additional money with training, etc. The caveat being no one knows when the surge will hit or how big it will be. Right now, district offices are closed so initial apps are theoretically being limited, and there is a time gap between denial, reconsideration, and a request for hearing. Additionally, as I recall, unemployment benefits were extended to 36 or 39 weeks in the first CV bill. All of this will likely lengthen the delay before the app increase. April and May’s reports will tell a lot. According to March’s report, there are 1320 ALJs available. There was already a backlog at the DDS. Since people can only apply online currently, there will be a lag in applications until offices open. Everyone expects an increase in applications because of CV19. I could foresee ALJ hiring later this year or next year, because of the ALJs learning curve. SSA can hire soon and train new ALJs prior to these new cases get to OHO. I am both surprised and somewhat encouraged that you can still be optimistic about the foresight of those in charge despite your years of experience that likely tells you otherwise.
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Post by nylawyer on May 15, 2020 18:17:08 GMT -5
I'm just a little fish, but 46% of the cases in my disability law office are at the initial or reconsideration stage. In April 2019, it was 17%. In April 2018, it was 18%. We are not necessarily seeing increased traffic, but increased new applications. Fewer people are coming in that already have a case pending at the hearing office. Also, we have a handful of cases on hold at the initial/recon level waiting for CEs. It will be interesting to see. There is going to be a surge at OHO, but when and how big are yet to be determined. There will likely be a big jump in initial applications- but if those cases sit and wait until CEs are being performed again, then a lot of those applicants may well have the opportunity to return to work, so maybe they never see OHO. Also, how many of those applicants are going to wait until after unemployment runs out, which could easily end up being mid 2021 or even later. Then, how quickly will the FOs be able to churn through the stockpile. A thought- maybe suspend redetermination? (If they can unilaterally suspend the language rule, then why not?) This gets the cases through the FO's faster and frees them up to process more cases.
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Post by nappyloxs on May 16, 2020 19:19:46 GMT -5
April and May’s reports will tell a lot. According to March’s report, there are 1320 ALJs available. There was already a backlog at the DDS. Since people can only apply online currently, there will be a lag in applications until offices open. Everyone expects an increase in applications because of CV19. I could foresee ALJ hiring later this year or next year, because of the ALJs learning curve. SSA can hire soon and train new ALJs prior to these new cases get to OHO. I am both surprised and somewhat encouraged that you can still be optimistic about the foresight of those in charge despite your years of experience that likely tells you otherwise. Thanks! You’re right that my experience tells me otherwise. However, they were going to hire 30-40 ALJs last year and there was money allocated to ALJ hiring in past budgets, but who knows where it went. I am expecting an increase in retirements once offices open back up and they will be requesting for additional hiring in next year’s budget. History shows they ask for additional hiring with increased receipts. Hiring and training can take place virtually. If it were to happen, offices would be open by then so training could be in person in smaller class sizes. Maybe regional training rather than national training. There is always hope.
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