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Post by foghorn on May 23, 2023 17:13:02 GMT -5
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Post by roymcavoy on May 23, 2023 19:08:08 GMT -5
I saw two patrons in a bar get into fisticuffs after raising these exact points earlier this week. 🤣🤣
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Post by mercury on May 24, 2023 0:18:22 GMT -5
Very interesting, although it’s not AFGE; it’s NAGE.
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Post by hillsarealive on May 24, 2023 10:59:41 GMT -5
I have strong thoughts and feelings on the debt ceiling standoff and the 14th amendment argument, but I'm not going to express those here--mostly because I doubt I could stay within the bounds of civility (and board rules and the Hatch Act etc).
But I will say that I have a hard time imagining a compromise that would be palatable to both sides. So we could be in for a bumpy ride. As a federal employee, I'm planning around the possibility that some paychecks may be delayed. My TSP account may take a big hit, at least temporarily. From what I have read, it's possible that default would hurt the country in about the same way as the 2008 financial crisis, which is really bad news for everybody. Nobody wants that, and yet I'm not seeing a great exit ramp for either side.
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Post by foghorn on May 24, 2023 17:45:23 GMT -5
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Post by arkstfan on May 25, 2023 1:57:40 GMT -5
Legally I don’t think government can default but I would assume we are also aware that for just over 8 decades the 14th and especially 15th amendments were mostly ignored. Government enforcement of segregation was an affront to section 1 of the 14th. If we can dismiss section 1 by contriving separate and (laughable) claims of equal to be compliant then the fourth section can be dismissed by a wave of the hand (or five or six hands).
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Post by arkstfan on May 25, 2023 2:11:22 GMT -5
I have strong thoughts and feelings on the debt ceiling standoff and the 14th amendment argument, but I'm not going to express those here--mostly because I doubt I could stay within the bounds of civility (and board rules and the Hatch Act etc). But I will say that I have a hard time imagining a compromise that would be palatable to both sides. So we could be in for a bumpy ride. As a federal employee, I'm planning around the possibility that some paychecks may be delayed. My TSP account may take a big hit, at least temporarily. From what I have read, it's possible that default would hurt the country in about the same way as the 2008 financial crisis, which is really bad news for everybody. Nobody wants that, and yet I'm not seeing a great exit ramp for either side. My spidey sense says may have some people furloughed for pay period starting June 18. In similar circumstances Treasury Secretary James Baker started transferring cash from Social Security cash reserves and had vowed to start raiding military pension reserves and selling gold reserves to avoid default. Review concluded he lacked authority for what he did and what he threatened but deemed action appropriate (essentially necessity defense) to avoid violating Constitutional provision against default. I cannot imagine avoiding shutdown when budget expires. Might get a short CR or two passed but can’t imagine those considering shutdown good governance and smart strategy adopt CR getting too close to Christmas. I hate for anyone to have ill health but if we get shutdown that results in missed paychecks the bug that afflicted air traffic controllers re-emerging would not be bad thing. Shutdown theater is tiresome. Used to be everything stayed open and workers advised checks would be late. A for show sort of shutdown citing anti deficiency act became a way to illustrate serious about stemming the profligate Congress. Personally I believe a president addressing a funding lapse by actually doing more than making Ms. Jenkins sixth graders sad that Smithsonian is closed might kill lapse as strategy. You send Navy out there to prevent ships from docking because customs agents have been sent home, closing border crossings and declaring a national aviation all stop starting in X days and closing all facilities requiring USDA inspectors on site will end the foolishness. Telling Walmart and other retailers no ships can unload or dock indefinitely starting October 1 and have a few CEO’s and donors stuck and unable to return from vacation will have an impact as well as closing all meat packing and egg packing. |
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Post by hillsarealive on May 25, 2023 9:39:40 GMT -5
My purpose was to look at the legal--and let's face it, some of those issues will and may spill over into administrative law issues. What is interesting to me is whether or not the debt ceiling is in fact a binding requirement, and if so is it superceded by duties imposed by the 14th Amendment. For anyone trying to wrap his or her head around the debt ceiling and possible workarounds, here's a good blog post. It is a little tongue in cheek, but a pleasure to read. This person points out the flaws in the 14th amendment approach, of which there are some. (The main one being that the Constitution pretty clearly gives Congress the authority to issue debt). pwnallthethings - mint to the coin
Some legal experts have pointed out that even if the 14th amendment approach is flawed (which it seems to be IMHO), POTUS would likely get away with it as SCOTUS would have the motivation and means to avoid ruling against him. We are living in a strange timeline I think. These exotic "solutions" to the debt limit seem just about as likely as POTUS and House finding a compromise. |
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Post by arkstfan on May 29, 2023 12:46:30 GMT -5
I have strong thoughts and feelings on the debt ceiling standoff and the 14th amendment argument, but I'm not going to express those here--mostly because I doubt I could stay within the bounds of civility (and board rules and the Hatch Act etc). But I will say that I have a hard time imagining a compromise that would be palatable to both sides. So we could be in for a bumpy ride. As a federal employee, I'm planning around the possibility that some paychecks may be delayed. My TSP account may take a big hit, at least temporarily. From what I have read, it's possible that default would hurt the country in about the same way as the 2008 financial crisis, which is really bad news for everybody. Nobody wants that, and yet I'm not seeing a great exit ramp for either side. My spidey sense says may have some people furloughed for pay period starting June 18. In similar circumstances Treasury Secretary James Baker started transferring cash from Social Security cash reserves and had vowed to start raiding military pension reserves and selling gold reserves to avoid default. Review concluded he lacked authority for what he did and what he threatened but deemed action appropriate (essentially necessity defense) to avoid violating Constitutional provision against default. I cannot imagine avoiding shutdown when budget expires. Might get a short CR or two passed but can’t imagine those considering shutdown good governance and smart strategy adopt CR getting too close to Christmas. I hate for anyone to have ill health but if we get shutdown that results in missed paychecks the bug that afflicted air traffic controllers re-emerging would not be bad thing. Shutdown theater is tiresome. Used to be everything stayed open and workers advised checks would be late. A for show sort of shutdown citing anti deficiency act became a way to illustrate serious about stemming the profligate Congress. Personally I believe a president addressing a funding lapse by actually doing more than making Ms. Jenkins sixth graders sad that Smithsonian is closed might kill lapse as strategy. You send Navy out there to prevent ships from docking because customs agents have been sent home, closing border crossings and declaring a national aviation all stop starting in X days and closing all facilities requiring USDA inspectors on site will end the foolishness. Telling Walmart and other retailers no ships can unload or dock indefinitely starting October 1 and have a few CEO’s and donors stuck and unable to return from vacation will have an impact as well as closing all meat packing and egg packing. Looks like I missed that big. Ain't done until it is done but the possibility of debt ceiling and budget being wrapped up in a month or two is wild. |
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Post by rp on Jun 1, 2023 19:20:32 GMT -5
Looks like the debt ceiling issue may be addressed - for now. The bad news appears to be the spending freeze. Does that mean no new hires in FY 2024? 🤷♂️
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Post by arkstfan on Jun 1, 2023 21:47:19 GMT -5
Looks like the debt ceiling issue may be addressed - for now. The bad news appears to be the spending freeze. Does that mean no new hires in FY 2024? 🤷♂️ Attrition replacement isn’t increasing spending. My office is down 30% in ALJ roster. |
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Post by ba on Jun 1, 2023 21:59:35 GMT -5
My spidey sense says may have some people furloughed for pay period starting June 18. In similar circumstances Treasury Secretary James Baker started transferring cash from Social Security cash reserves and had vowed to start raiding military pension reserves and selling gold reserves to avoid default. Review concluded he lacked authority for what he did and what he threatened but deemed action appropriate (essentially necessity defense) to avoid violating Constitutional provision against default. I cannot imagine avoiding shutdown when budget expires. Might get a short CR or two passed but can’t imagine those considering shutdown good governance and smart strategy adopt CR getting too close to Christmas. I hate for anyone to have ill health but if we get shutdown that results in missed paychecks the bug that afflicted air traffic controllers re-emerging would not be bad thing. Shutdown theater is tiresome. Used to be everything stayed open and workers advised checks would be late. A for show sort of shutdown citing anti deficiency act became a way to illustrate serious about stemming the profligate Congress. Personally I believe a president addressing a funding lapse by actually doing more than making Ms. Jenkins sixth graders sad that Smithsonian is closed might kill lapse as strategy. You send Navy out there to prevent ships from docking because customs agents have been sent home, closing border crossings and declaring a national aviation all stop starting in X days and closing all facilities requiring USDA inspectors on site will end the foolishness. Telling Walmart and other retailers no ships can unload or dock indefinitely starting October 1 and have a few CEO’s and donors stuck and unable to return from vacation will have an impact as well as closing all meat packing and egg packing. Looks like I missed that big. Ain't done until it is done but the possibility of debt ceiling and budget being wrapped up in a month or two is wild. I was going to make a spidey sense joke, but I figured no need to sass you about the doomsday predictions. |
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