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Post by zero on Feb 28, 2009 16:18:26 GMT -5
Based on my review of the information OPM provided, I have caculated the relative weight of the inputs into the score (rounded to the nearest whole number):
AR: 35%
WD: 24%
SI: 41%
My last review of the poll (at 78 responses) shows a median of about 67.
However, I question the poll. Earlier, I calculated there are approximately 300 people in the 2009 class. In the last few days, there has been a huge spike in activity by new accounts/people with only a handful of posts. I don't know what the motive would be to mess up the poll, but I find it hard to believe the 78 out of 300 candidates would post their scores within 24 hours of the scores being made available (especially on Friday night/Saturday morning). That would be a higher response rate than last year's poll got after a year.
With apologies to a certain oracle for whom I have undying affection, I would like to point out that I predicted the scores would come out in the first week of March. This turned out to be more accurate than the oracle's prediction of no sooner than the end of April.
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Post by pm on Feb 28, 2009 16:19:48 GMT -5
What information OPM provided?
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Post by northwest on Feb 28, 2009 16:39:10 GMT -5
In the last few days, there has been a huge spike in activity by new accounts/people with only a handful of posts. I don't know what the motive would be to mess up the poll . . . I believe there are quite a number of applicants who follow this board, but have not been motivated to sign up or post until now because they don't have unanswered questions. I appreciate that new people are signing up, because a higher sample size gives greater validity to the poll. But obviously, the poll cannot be scientific, as the information cannot be verified. Also, people with low scores might choose to just drop out, as was suggested earlier on a different thread. |
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Post by zero on Feb 28, 2009 17:05:48 GMT -5
What information OPM provided? PM: Excellent question. There's nothing wrong with asking questions that can be answered by searching old threads/emails. The repetition does no harm and keeps the discussion going. The answer is that OPM's latest email said the competencies were weighted equally. Knowing that, it was a simple matter of digging through my old notices from opm and the application itself to count the number of competencies measured by each stage. The AR had 6. The WD had 4. The SI had 7. Thanks again for the question PM! Z |
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Post by Pixie on Feb 28, 2009 17:26:17 GMT -5
Based on my review of the information OPM provided, I have caculated the relative weight of the inputs into the score (rounded to the nearest whole number): AR: 35% WD: 24% SI: 41% My last review of the poll (at 78 responses) shows a median of about 67. However, I question the poll. Earlier, I calculated there are approximately 300 people in the 2009 class. In the last few days, there has been a huge spike in activity by new accounts/people with only a handful of posts. I don't know what the motive would be to mess up the poll, but I find it hard to believe the 78 out of 300 candidates would post their scores within 24 hours of the scores being made available (especially on Friday night/Saturday morning). That would be a higher response rate than last year's poll got after a year. With apologies to a certain oracle for whom I have undying affection, I would like to point out that I predicted the scores would come out in the first week of March. This turned out to be more accurate than the oracle's prediction of no sooner than the end of April. Here is what I said back in January, I believe it was: "My comments are based on the track record of OPM over the past number of years watching how they operate, and more importantly, how slowly they operate. OPM has given assurances to SSA about the time lines, but we shall see how it plays out. OPM could surprise everyone and get it in on time for once. But I doubt it. Pix." My earliest estimate was the middle of April. I stand by that estimate. Based on my extensive knowledge of OPM, there is no way it will get the scores out in March. It has never done anything in a timely manner, and there is no reason for it to start now. What you are seeing with these so called "scores" is a huge spoofing scam. It will be at least another month before OPM gets the real scores out. Zero, don't start claiming victory yet; I'm still betting on the middle of April. Pix. |
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Post by flannery on Feb 28, 2009 17:30:19 GMT -5
Pixie, excuse me but are you saying someone has hacked OPM's databases and is sending out fraudulent NORR's? Am I missing something here? I got an email from OPM Norfolk yesterday at 5:27 eastern time giving me my score. Was this fraudulent?
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Post by alj on Feb 28, 2009 17:34:25 GMT -5
Pixie, excuse me but are you saying someone has hacked OPM's databases and is sending out fraudulent NORR's? Am I missing something here? I got an email from OPM Norfolk yesterday at 5:27 eastern time giving me my score. Was this fraudulent? Calm down little bunny, she is just not ready to admit that OPM actually did something timely. In her quote she said that OPM might surprise everyone and get it on time for once. They did. |
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Post by flannery on Feb 28, 2009 17:38:19 GMT -5
Thanks ALJ. I can finish my cup of tea now and I probably should have realized Pixie was kidding.
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Post by northwest on Feb 28, 2009 17:39:44 GMT -5
What you are seeing with these so called "scores" is a huge spoofing scam. Yes, we recognize this as a joke. But maybe you should have added one of those little faces, because we're all so used to taking your word as Gospel.  ;D _____________ Edit Note by Pixie: Yes, perhaps I should have, but I was just poking some fun at myself. Also, Zero was getting a bit uppity and needed to be put in his place! Please don't take what I say as Gospel, because it isn't. I make mistakes just like anyone else. Leave the milk and cookies out. Pix. |
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Post by pm on Feb 28, 2009 17:42:36 GMT -5
What information OPM provided? PM: Excellent question. There's nothing wrong with asking questions that can be answered by searching old threads/emails. The repetition does no harm and keeps the discussion going. The answer is that OPM's latest email said the competencies were weighted equally. Knowing that, it was a simple matter of digging through my old notices from opm and the application itself to count the number of competencies measured by each stage. The AR had 6. The WD had 4. The SI had 7. Thanks again for the question PM! Z The intent of my question was to ask YOU what information YOU were using. The only way I could find that out is to ask YOU. This topic has been discussed in length. Unfortunately it appears you missed some of the old posts. Your interpretation is just one possible interpretation. Some of the competencies appear more than once throughout the process. Decision making shows up in the AR, WD and the SI. It appears you counted it 3 times, yet it's only one competency, so why count it three times? (and again, I am asking this question of YOU). The total number of competencies evaluated by the three parts of the process are not 17. I believe 9 competencies are evaluated by the three separate parts of the exam. Many show up in more than one section of the exam process. Does OPM average them out? I do not know. The bottom line is that almost everyone who has looked at this problem closely simply does not know how OPM did the scoring. When you have had a chance to read more of the old posts, and think this through more carefully, you should eventually come to the same conclusion. Unfortunately, you're treading on ground that has already been trampled to death. |
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Post by pm on Feb 28, 2009 17:45:50 GMT -5
Based on my review of the information OPM provided, I have caculated the relative weight of the inputs into the score (rounded to the nearest whole number): AR: 35% WD: 24% SI: 41% My last review of the poll (at 78 responses) shows a median of about 67. However, I question the poll. Earlier, I calculated there are approximately 300 people in the 2009 class. In the last few days, there has been a huge spike in activity by new accounts/people with only a handful of posts. I don't know what the motive would be to mess up the poll, but I find it hard to believe the 78 out of 300 candidates would post their scores within 24 hours of the scores being made available (especially on Friday night/Saturday morning). That would be a higher response rate than last year's poll got after a year. With apologies to a certain oracle for whom I have undying affection, I would like to point out that I predicted the scores would come out in the first week of March. This turned out to be more accurate than the oracle's prediction of no sooner than the end of April. No one knew when the scores were coming out. Your prediction was a guess. Pixie's was an educated guess. At any time, on any issue, I will always choose Pixie's response over yours. |
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Post by zero on Feb 28, 2009 18:41:43 GMT -5
PM: Excellent question. There's nothing wrong with asking questions that can be answered by searching old threads/emails. The repetition does no harm and keeps the discussion going. The answer is that OPM's latest email said the competencies were weighted equally. Knowing that, it was a simple matter of digging through my old notices from opm and the application itself to count the number of competencies measured by each stage. The AR had 6. The WD had 4. The SI had 7. Thanks again for the question PM! Z The intent of my question was to ask YOU what information YOU were using. The only way I could find that out is to ask YOU. This topic has been discussed in length. Unfortunately it appears you missed some of the old posts. Your interpretation is just one possible interpretation. Some of the competencies appear more than once throughout the process. Decision making shows up in the AR, WD and the SI. It appears you counted it 3 times, yet it's only one competency, so why count it three times? (and again, I am asking this question of YOU). The total number of competencies evaluated by the three parts of the process are not 17. I believe 9 competencies are evaluated by the three separate parts of the exam. Many show up in more than one section of the exam process. Does OPM average them out? I do not know. The bottom line is that almost everyone who has looked at this problem closely simply does not know how OPM did the scoring. When you have had a chance to read more of the old posts, and think this through more carefully, you should eventually come to the same conclusion. Unfortunately, you're treading on ground that has already been trampled to death. PM- Sublimate. Z |
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Post by zero on Feb 28, 2009 18:44:29 GMT -5
Based on my review of the information OPM provided, I have caculated the relative weight of the inputs into the score (rounded to the nearest whole number): AR: 35% WD: 24% SI: 41% My last review of the poll (at 78 responses) shows a median of about 67. However, I question the poll. Earlier, I calculated there are approximately 300 people in the 2009 class. In the last few days, there has been a huge spike in activity by new accounts/people with only a handful of posts. I don't know what the motive would be to mess up the poll, but I find it hard to believe the 78 out of 300 candidates would post their scores within 24 hours of the scores being made available (especially on Friday night/Saturday morning). That would be a higher response rate than last year's poll got after a year. With apologies to a certain oracle for whom I have undying affection, I would like to point out that I predicted the scores would come out in the first week of March. This turned out to be more accurate than the oracle's prediction of no sooner than the end of April. Here is what I said back in January, I believe it was: "My comments are based on the track record of OPM over the past number of years watching how they operate, and more importantly, how slowly they operate. OPM has given assurances to SSA about the time lines, but we shall see how it plays out. OPM could surprise everyone and get it in on time for once. But I doubt it. Pix." My earliest estimate was the middle of April. I stand by that estimate. Based on my extensive knowledge of OPM, there is no way it will get the scores out in March. It has never done anything in a timely manner, and there is no reason for it to start now. What you are seeing with these so called "scores" is a huge spoofing scam. It will be at least another month before OPM gets the real scores out. Zero, don't start claiming victory yet; I'm still betting on the middle of April. Pix. Hmm, pix, interesting theory on the spoofing scam. I'll have to call my friends in Nigeria to see if they have heard anything. You know I'm a fan and I am just having fun. ;D |
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Post by Pixie on Feb 28, 2009 19:14:03 GMT -5
Nigeria? I hadn't thought of that. I was thinking more of the contractor that had some security problems the last time around. I was just having a good time poking fun at myself.
I kept hearing that OPM would have the scores ready the first part of March, and I knew that SSA was counting on it. I just didn't believe it. If you will notice in my prior post, I said that OPM might do something timely for a change. So, I need to get some credit for that!
With OPM getting the new names added to the register (I assume they will be added immediately) before SSA got its budget, that eliminates the reason for SSA to request the small certificate of 30. But with the increase in the budget for next year, the same situation may arise again. I just don't know. It's a roll of the dice. But I think that window has now closed.
Time to head out for dinner. Later. Pix.
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Post by george007 on Feb 28, 2009 19:16:25 GMT -5
You guys are all giving me a laugh. I'll admit - I know Zero personally. I'd trust his predictions and suggestions always. And he's very funny too. I've lost a few bets with him lately about the timing/scores/etc. Pixie gives great information, but I must tease her about the fact that two of her predictions have been a bit off the mark -- when the scores are coming out and the small cert. for February. But, she obviously still knows her stuff and I know that Zero was just poking a little fun. ______________ Edit Note by Pixie: Yes, see my message above that was posted while you were composing this one. Pix. |
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;D
