Odds of Getting an Offer

[Buffalogal]

I was wondering if we have the rough numbers to calculate the odds of getting an offer. Orly said that SSA will be training 150-160. Is that for all of SSA? Are any other agencies hiring? Does anyone know how many people took the WD and SI? I thought I saw something in one of the threads about how many people remain on the existing registry .... Maybe this should be a poll(?)

[tigerfan]

slightly less than 600 took the SI and WD. Most likely most of them will be on the new register. I don't know how many are left over from the current register. IF you get on the new cert for SSA your chances are 1 in 3. That is the absolute number but things such as your GAL and score factor into the mix. If you have a high score and a GAL with lots of locations on it your chances are better. You still have the hurdle of the SSA interview and background check including references.

[lawmaker]

Apr 17, 2010 18:07:52 GMT -5 tigerfan said:

slightly less than 600 took the SI and WD. Most likely most of them will be on the new register. I don't know how many are left over from the current register. IF you get on the new cert for SSA your chances are 1 in 3. That is the absolute number but things such as your GAL and score factor into the mix. If you have a high score and a GAL with lots of locations on it your chances are better. You still have the hurdle of the SSA interview and background check including references.

The odds are a little unusual to calculate at this time. one likely skewing factor : the number of people who decided to retest to see if they could get a higher score. Hard to guess what OPM will do about those test takers. Whatever they do, the 600 number reported above should be considered in light of the likelihood that some part of the 600 are in fact already on the cert and could move up or down, depending on what their new scores will be.

[johnthornton]

And some of those 600 have already been hired off of the OLD register. One of my friends falls into that group--she retook the exam to try to increase her score but was hired based on her old score before she was rescored.

[privateatty]

After you go to the SSA/ODAR interview you will have a much better idea of what they are looking for. Factors include a strong working knowledge of the law, solid references who can attest to that fact and your ability to move and manage a large docket and/or number of cases, complete mastery of computer skills and software and IMO, having toed the line in the Agency may be a trump card.

Alot of folks who fit this bill and thought they would get an offer were deep-sixed by a reference who said something to an investigator that OCALJ didn't like.

[statman]

I asked the person who interviewed me. He said the key on the interview was not saying something which hurt you and apparently I did not.

[tricia]

Buffalo Gal, thanks for starting this thread. I guess this is the next thing about which the people who just took the exam and interviewed will be obsessing.

[tricia]

I have a question. The people who applied in November got our invitations to take the test and interview in February. So we would be looking at getting the Notice of Results in maybe May. And then, as I understand it, if we are not hired, we wouldn't be able to re-apply until a year has passed from the Notice of Results. So if this certificate expires in October, as Patriots' Fan has said that it would, are we going to be not allowed to re-apply then?

[maxlaw]

I think you're getting the certificate and register mixed up. The register of OPM-annointed ALJ candidates is set to expire in 2010; when it does everyone on it is back to square one. Anyone should then be able to apply for the hypothetical new register without regard to when they took the exam to get on the old (i.e. current) one.

[Orly]

Apr 22, 2010 13:14:48 GMT -5 maxlaw said:

I think you're getting the certificate and register mixed up. The register of OPM-annointed ALJ candidates is set to expire in 2010; when it does everyone on it is back to square one. Anyone should then be able to apply for the hypothetical new register without regard to when they took the exam to get on the old (i.e. current) one.

Max has it right. For people who are waiting for their NORs right now, they are probably only going to have one shot at the upcoming fall class before the expiration of register and everything starting all over again.

However, this fall class of 150~ is the last large ALJ class to be hired in the near future. Based on the Commissioner's testimony to Congress last week, the agency is only expected to hire around 75 ALJs next year. Which looks like attrition replacement.

While the number of hiring is going to decline starting next year, the number of applicants is unlikely to go down. So good luck to everyone for the upcoming cycle.

[hopeful92]

Does anyone know when the next cert will take place?? Will it be prior to October? Thanks.

[noah]

Should be in the next seven weeks.

[tigerfan]

The next interviews are scheduled to take place the middle two weeks of June so the rumor goes. The new OPM scores should be out by mid May so the next cert should come out sometime after May 15 and before early June in order to schedule the interviews. So, in the next seven weeks sounds right on the money. I am also guessing that Orly is wrong (a good thing actually) and that the number of hires will exceed 200.

[odarite]

tigerfan, the information is posted in the string "general information." The Commissioner said 226 hires for fiscal 2010. Some were already hired at the beginning of the fiscal year, then another group who will go to training in June, hence the size of the "June" hire will be no more than the 150 and probably less, I just don't know the total to date. [edited to correct my own mistake which caused confusion]

[nonamouse]

May 4, 2010 6:39:09 GMT -5 odarite said:

tigerfan, the information is posted in the string "general information." The Commissioner said 226 hires for fiscal 2010. 56 have already been hired, hence the size of the "June" hire will be no more than 170.

Are you including the class that trained in November 2009 in your count of 56 or just the people that recently got offers? I have not been paying super close attention to the count, but I think these numbers don't sound correct since FY 2010 began Oct 1, 2009 and already had a class hired 10/2009 that trained 11/2009 plus the recent group of offers that should make the total already hired closer to 100+ at this point out of the total 226 for FY 2010. I'm sure we talked about this in another thread before Christmas but it could have been deleted.

[odarite]

nonamouse, you are correct. I don't think the 56 number included the most recent hires. I am not sure of the total hired to date, but the guess of 200 slots left for this FY is clearly too many.

[tigerfan]

The hires that trained last November came out of last year's FY, 2009. The 56 that were recently hired and have not been to training yet are FY 2010 hires. The COSS told congress that he was going to hire 226 this year. I heard and saw him say it. I don't know if he meant this FY or this CY. But even if you deduct the 56 from the 226 it leaves 170.

[nonamouse]

May 4, 2010 13:10:45 GMT -5 tigerfan said:

The hires that trained last November came out of last year's FY, 2009. The 56 that were recently hired and have not been to training yet are FY 2010 hires. The COSS told congress that he was going to hire 226 this year. I heard and saw him say it. I don't know if he meant this FY or this CY. But even if you deduct the 56 from the 226 it leaves 170.

How do you know the class whose hire date was in October came out of FY 2009 when they did not start until FY 2010? Did the COSS actually say it specifically? I think their start date would have needed to be before the start of FY2010 if the positions were in the FY2009 budget. They make us spend the rest of our office supply budget in that frantic manner at the end of every FY, so why would hiring be any different?

[Well]

I'm hearing that this year and next are going to be busy with retirement parties. Too late to help this cert but next year may have another good sized hire.

[tigerfan]

Those hired in October 2009 were offered and accepted the job before October 1 and or the funds for their hires were committed out of the FY 2009 budget before October 1, 2009. When you buy supplies at the end of the year do the supplies have to be delivered by October 1 or do you just have to commit the funds for them by October 1?