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Post by epic0ego on Sept 20, 2013 14:54:03 GMT -5
Yeah, it depends on projected attrition rate and I have seen ranges from 100 - 300 per year. Obviously, none of us knows for sure but as I have posted previously, even odds of 1 in 3 or 1 in 5 ain't bad when it comes to chances of getting a good legal job. Our office received over 400 resumes for a single attorney-advisor opening. The ALJ odds are obviously much better than that. For new attorneys the odds are even more grim since they don't even qualify for most of the GS-13 and above positions.
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Post by epic0ego on Sept 20, 2013 15:07:02 GMT -5
just to add to the speculation on projected attrition, this is an excerpt from a Washington Post article appearing last month.
"The Social Security Administration, meantime, could be headed to what its personnel chief calls “a perfect storm.”
Even as the overall American population is aging and making more disability claims, many of the agency’s administrative law judges, who rule on disputed claims, are themselves heading toward retirement. The average age of these judges is 59. Two out of three will be eligible to retire in 2016, the GAO says.
Since the job pays especially well by federal standards, many of the agency’s 1,500 judges serve well beyond the retirement age. But the retirement rate is creeping up, and Reginald Wells, the SSA’s human resources chief, said the agency is already feeling the effect. “We’re losing more judges than we’re replacing,” he said.
A surge in disability claims with fewer judges to handle appeals of rejected ones has created a backlog, with wait times of 375 days on average, according to government audits. About 90 judges have retired so far this year, and not all their posts will be filled, Wells said."
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Post by 71stretch on Oct 4, 2013 7:03:34 GMT -5
The OPM proctor told us that we were the last scheduled "large" group -- I think our group was a group of "resets". (And we were not as large as previous groups, even before all our no shows). The remaining ones are resets, special accommodation requests, etc. evidently. So, the large numbers definitely will not carry to the end of the testing.
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Post by BagLady on Oct 4, 2013 7:37:29 GMT -5
Perhaps Funky can update the math for us once he gets a few items checked off his honey-do list.
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Post by mikeinthehills on Oct 4, 2013 9:53:46 GMT -5
Here's my quick, back of the envelope calculation. Between August 5th and September 27th, there were 31 testing days (4 per week, 3 per week Labor Day week) at an average of about 28 per day from the threads (maybe 29). That's 868 at 28, and 899 at 29. This week, from what I can gather, it appears about 20 per day, or 80 total, bringing the total up to between approximately 948 to 979. Add another 20 to 30 stragglers, and you end up somewhere near or just over 1,000. I'm having a hard time seeing a number of test takers as high as 1,100.
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Post by 71stretch on Oct 4, 2013 10:31:04 GMT -5
Remember, there aren't x number of new people testing each day. The same group tests two days in a row. So, you need to know how many 2 day groups each week, and the number in each. While they could do four groups in a week, I'm not at all sure they ever did. And, the two groups that tested this week totaled way less than 40.
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Post by ginger on Oct 4, 2013 16:51:05 GMT -5
Actually observer I think at least for previous weeks there were new groups testing every day. . Maybe the same group moved from phase one to phase two within a two day span but a new group would be starting phase one back at the office of personnel management on day two while the first group moved on to the second phase at embassy suites that second day. That would mean two sets Tuesday thru Thursday.
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Post by 71stretch on Oct 4, 2013 17:12:59 GMT -5
Actually observer I think at least for previous weeks there were new groups testing every day. . Maybe the same group moved from phase one to phase two within a two day span but a new group would be starting phase one back at the office of personnel management on day two while the first group moved on to the second phase at embassy suites that second day. That would mean two sets Tuesday thru Thursday. Yes, you are right, I understand that. They actually could have had as many as four groups testing in a week if they used all five days, but I don't think they ever did that many. This past week, they tested one group Monday/Tuesday, and one group Wednesday/Thursday. They may have done that other weeks, we don't have every potential testing group covered on this board, I don't think. I agree with mikeinthehills that there's nowhere near 1100 testing, but I think his numbers are too high. His numbers work if they were testing four groups a week, but I don't think they ever did that. Let's say they did three groups of average 29 each, per week in the four weeks in August, and for three of the four weeks in September. Either testing Tu-F or M-Th. That's 87 X 7, or 609. In the three testing days Labor Day week, they did probably two groups, (they could have done three, but I don't think so) that's 58. First week in October, they tested a total of 23 in two groups. That's 690. And we know some of the groups were a little smaller than 29, a few a little larger. If they are testing single digits for the next few weeks, they won't get more than 750, and that only if several groups maxed out at 32. The early posts in this thread assumed testing four days per week and X (no more than 32) number of people in room 1350 each day. The four testing days a week works, but the WD/LBMT is not given four times in those four days, just three. The math in those posts assumed that four groups were getting tested in that four days. It doesn't work that way. Each week, you either have a M-T group, a T-W group, and a W-Th group, or a T-W, W-Th and Th-F group. Max of 3 groups, not four, in August and September. (not counting Labor Day week, which was probably two) This past week, only 2 groups, total of 23. That doesn't add up to anywhere near the numbers upthread.
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Post by moopigsdad on Oct 4, 2013 17:23:56 GMT -5
I still stick with my guess of between 1000 and 1100 total testing.
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Post by 71stretch on Oct 4, 2013 18:05:11 GMT -5
The early posts in this thread assumed testing four days per week and X (no more than 32) number of people in room 1350 each day. The four testing days a week works, but the WD/LBMT is not given four times in those four days, just three. The math in those posts assumed that four groups were getting tested in that four days. It doesn't work that way. You either have a M-T group, a T-W group, and a W-Th group, or a T-W, W-Th and Th-F group. 3 groups, not four, in August and September. This past week, only 2 groups, total of 23. Observer where are you getting your info that they only did three WD/LBMTs each week on full weeks in August and September? I hope that is right. That makes the numbers go down significantly. From the very beginning of this thread, people assumed four testing days per week, starting on Monday or starting on Tuesday. But I don't think they gave the WD/LBMT four times a week EVERY full week (and that's the premise of my earlier post) as they'd have to do the same with the SI, and there'd be five testing days per week if that's true. (I'm counting days the SI is given as a testing day.) I guess we don't have enough information from the sample on this board to show that they actually did give the WD/LBMT four times a week throughout August and September (except for Labor Day week, where they could have done two, or three). And, just because they COULD have tested on a given day doesn't mean they did. We don't know what else was going on at OPM, or how many SI panels they could put together each week. Maybe someone just needs to do a FOIA request......
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Post by funkyodar on Oct 4, 2013 18:08:19 GMT -5
I hope observer is right too. I tested on a th and si on a fri. I know they had some doing si on that th while I was testing and I know (from reports here) that there was a mon test group that week.
That would seem to indicate there was testing on at least mon, wed and thur. I assumed testing on the tuesday but no ev that has to be true.
Further I have no ev that my week was typical or extra large.
There are just too many variables. my previous guesstimations assumed the average was held over 4 testing days a week thru the end of testing 10/18. we know thatisn't true. I certainly hope observers #s are closer.
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Post by BagLady on Oct 4, 2013 18:18:55 GMT -5
And in the end, do we ever get confirmation of the number of candidates on the register? Do they tell us? Does that information come from insider knowledge and get posted?
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Post by 71stretch on Oct 4, 2013 19:04:39 GMT -5
And in the end, do we ever get confirmation of the number of candidates on the register? Do they tell us? Does that information come from insider knowledge and get posted? No, it's not announced. OPM insider info we are a bit short on, for sure. That's why I made the comment about the FOIA request. I suppose it could be done, I don't remember all the FOIA exceptions I learned in law school. So they did five days at least one week, funky's (wouldn't you know??? ) But it's true that there are a lot of variables we don't have info about. The number is what it is, I guess.
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Post by lurker/dibs on Oct 4, 2013 19:29:36 GMT -5
I know there was testing Monday-Thursday and SIs Tuesday-Friday the week I was there. I stayed in DC for 7 days at the hotel where the SIs were taking place.
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Post by moopigsdad on Oct 4, 2013 20:12:06 GMT -5
I know there was testing Monday-Thursday and SIs Tuesday-Friday the week I was there. I stayed in DC for 7 days at the hotel where the SIs were taking place. I think most weeks were four days a week of testing and SI, with M-Tu, Tu-W, W-Th, and Th-F schedules. When I spoke to the proctors, one of them said they do it twice a week and that there were two groups of proctors.
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Post by funkyodar on Oct 4, 2013 22:39:59 GMT -5
As much as it saddens me given my effort in guesstimating, I don't think the total register size matters much in regard to our chances.
If the total reg is 1000 and they are gonna fill 250 slots (purely as an example) total reg size would imply we each have a 25% chance. But that's a fallacy. What really matters is where those slots are, whether they are within your gal and how many on the register also have those cities in their gal. If all 250 are in crapland cities you can automatically remove aljfaq and many more that didn't list crapland cities (afterall, most everyone reported their fellow test takers said they only had 1 or 2 cities on their gal). So those with wide gals have a significant statistical advantage.
Contrarily, if there are 1000 on the reg and 500 of those have one of the popular cities, if that's your only city and they only fill 2 slots there you have a 4% chance.
Given the vast #s that applied, just making the reg is an accomplishment. And having it be a smaller number increases that ego boost. But the size of the reg matters littlein regard to your chances. You didn't apply for "an alj job" you applied for as many alj jobs as they fill in cities on your gal. Your mathmatical chances of landing any of those slots varies depending on how many others have that city in their gal, your scores and your agency interview.
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Post by Ace Midnight on Oct 5, 2013 0:30:57 GMT -5
From the very beginning of this thread, people assumed four testing days per week, starting on Monday or starting on Tuesday. But I don't think they gave the WD/LBMT four times a week EVERY full week (and that's the premise of my earlier post) as they'd have to do the same with the SI, and there'd be five testing days per week if that's true. (I'm counting days the SI is given as a testing day.) I guess we don't have enough information from the sample on this board to show that they actually did give the WD/LBMT four times a week throughout August and September (except for Labor Day week, where they could have done two, or three). And, just because they COULD have tested on a given day doesn't mean they did. We don't know what else was going on at OPM, or how many SI panels they could put together each week. Maybe someone just needs to do a FOIA request...... Like others, I hope your numbers are true, because smaller numbers is good news for every person on the register. However, I think it makes perfect sense for them to have tested M-Th and SI'd T-F - there's absolutely no reason for them not to have done it that way. I agree our sample size is too small to confirm or deny that, but 4 cohorts, averaging 28 to 29, every full week, and 3 cohorts on Labor Day week would be the safest baseline. What makes you think they didn't do the WD/LBMT four times every full week? I apologize for not tracking all the data that came in, but I'm sure you, Funky or others can chime in - were there 8 or 9 "full" weeks (including the short Labor Day week) before the accomodation/reset/small cohorts hit? 8 weeks of "29" cohorts, including Labor Day week would be 867, 9 weeks would be 979, plus the stragglers/appeals, etc., which I would expect to be around 100 or so (perhaps 150). So that 8 or 9 week question is a big one, how many full weeks is a big one, the number of stragglers is a big one. Also, whether or not they tested every available day during the period is a big one. Each of these questions has fairly big implications for the final total number. Our resolution cannot get better without some of these specifics (or insider information).
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Post by 71stretch on Oct 5, 2013 3:07:39 GMT -5
Appeals aren't in this mix. There were four full weeks in August , then Labor Day week, when they could not have tested more than three groups, then three full weeks in September. The first two groups this past week (and there may have been only two) totaled 23.
. I don't think there are anywhere near 150 testing in October, based on what our proctor said about the remaining testing, and the numbers in the first two groups, which totaled 23. So, I don't see the total ever getting to near 1100 unless there are a LOT of successful appeals down the road.
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Benny
Full Member
Posts: 56
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Post by Benny on Oct 6, 2013 13:26:43 GMT -5
On the brighter side of this government shutdown week....it appears testing went forward and that the end is in sight (with the exception of some accommodations, etc). So hopefully they have been scoring all along and we have a short wait for results.
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