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Post by 71stretch on Apr 21, 2014 17:40:44 GMT -5
I haven't looked closely at every aspect, but I'm not buying the rolling interviews. Like funky, I don't think they have time, and coordinating rolling volunteer interview panels would be way more work. It isn't like they have to worry about interviewing people more than once, either. They've not been shy in the past about interviewing 400 people on a non-rolling basis. They won't have that many this time.
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Post by moopigsdad on Apr 21, 2014 19:33:39 GMT -5
Throwing out my WAG here: I assume ODAR’s goal is to get a cert that complies with the regs and allows them to fill all open slots with the best candidates while conducting the fewest interviews. How do they do this? 1. Get a cert for each city, because OPM said they had to do it this way this time. 2. Ask OPM to send the number of names for each city that will mean (assuming that at the end of the process, if ALL other open positions have been filled) the LAST city with an open position will have at least three viable non-three-struck candidates who each have that city on their GAL. 3. OPM says “sure”–and starts at the top of the scores. Candidate 1–is he on any of the cert-requested 45 cities? If so, he is added to the cert for each of those cities. Since he is on the cert for multiple cities, he does NOT count against the minimum of three for ANY of those cities, since he could end up getting a job in any of them and thus not being available in factor #2 above for the other cities in his GAL if they end up being the very last one filled (thus depriving ODAR of three names for that last city, as is required by the regulation). 4. Candidate 2 is considered. Her GAL does not include any of the 45 cities-she is passed over. 5. Candidate 3 is considered. He has a GAL of ONLY one 45er. He goes on the cert for that city, and he DOES count toward that city’s “rule of three” cert requirement, since it is a certainty that he will not be placed elsewhere. 6. This process continues. Let’s say it reaches down to Register score #350, “Miss350”. Many dozens of small GALs have been eliminated above her, allowing OPM to reach this far to consider her for inclusion in the cert. She happens to have Johnstown as the only 45er in her GAL. She will be placed on the Johnstown cert and is now the FIRST of its candidates to count toward the “rule of three”. That is, it was conceivable that each of the other Johnstown candidates above her (who are all on multiple certs) could be placed elsewhere, depriving Johnstown of three for consideration, UNTIL Miss350 made Johnstown’s cert. 7. The process continues down the list of scores until a city has three candidates on its cert whose presence guarantees that there will be three candidates in consideration for that city regardless of who else gets what other jobs in any other city. Obviously, these need to be people who have only that one of the 45 vacant cities on their GAL (they can have other cities there, just not others in the vacant 45). At that point the cert for that city is closed. 8. Once the cert for each and every city has 3 candidates who are UNIQUE to that city’s cert, i.e., could only end up there, then and only then has OPM certified the required number of candidates for that city. Once that happens, no further candidates are considered, and the certs are delivered. 9. ODAR will then notify, get and check references, etc. How does ODAR handle interviews? If it wants to minimize the number of interviews it has to conduct, it starts at the top of the candidate score list and begins a series of interviews moving down by score. As matches are found, those cities are removed from contention. If, say, Tampa is filled early by a high scoring candidate, then all the three relatively low scorers who constituted the unique “rule of three” fillers at the bottom of the Tampa cert are removed for contention for any job and not interviewed. Others on the Tampa cert who have not been interviewed yet may still be interviewed because of their presence on other cert(s) which haven’t been filled. Many more still will not be interviewed as they are in the middle of the lists of certs for just a few cities, and those cities get filled before they are interviewed, thus eliminating them also. Further, as top scorers are considered repeatedly as one of the top three for their certs and eliminated, the three-strike rule will take its toll. 10. At the end, ODAR will have filled all but Johnstown and Shreveport. There are three candidates for each, and each of those candidates necessarily had no other 45er city in their GALs. They’re interviewed, two are offered, and presumable accept. If, along the way, none of them are deemed worthy or they refuse, then ODAR can request a second cert for that city as needed. Thus there will be minimal second certs required, and very targeted interviewing at that point. Could OPM put on the cert for each city ALL of the names of candidates who had that 45er city on their GALs? Sure. It would then flood ODAR with dozens of names that, if analyzed per the above, are mathematically certain never to be reached. However, if ODAR interviews as described above, the process would still be essentially the same. There would be a lot us on such "everybody" certs who rejoiced not realizing that we are non-viable from the get-go. Thus, it seems that for ODAR to make this “per-city” cert work, OPM has to give it a cert that for each open position goes through AT LEAST three “unique” names. This means if there are two vacancies in one city, 6 unique names are required, and so on. It also seems that ODAR has to interview on a rolling basis, starting with the top candidates, if they are to follow the regs as to vet pref and rule of three, AND if they hope to avoid conducting numerous premature and wasted interviews of non-viable (for that cert) candidates. Release the hounds. I have a problem with step 7 and step 8 sandifer. There may not be 135 unique individuals with only one of the 45 cities on the cert because that would be required under your scenario. There may not, for example, be 3 unique individuals with Valpo only of the 45 cities on the cert to meet the Rule of Three. This could happen for more than one of the 45 cities on the cert. Hence, SSA could go through all 900 names on the register and still not fill three unique names for each of the 45 cities. So, what happens in that case sandifer?
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Post by valkyrie on Apr 21, 2014 20:05:32 GMT -5
The other reason why I'm just not buying a new cert system is that ODAR will be furious. The register was already a huge disappointment to ODAR because of the lack of in-house people. Taking away from their flexibility and selection size at the cert level will be an OPM declaration of all out war on ODAR. The only way they could make things worse is to do some kind of serious audit of the ODAR selection process after the hirings.
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Post by funkyodar on Apr 21, 2014 20:07:03 GMT -5
Really simple. Wait for it....... Everybody certs, sometimes.
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Post by JudgeRatty on Apr 21, 2014 20:15:38 GMT -5
The other reason why I'm just not buying a new cert system is that ODAR will be furious. The register was already a huge disappointment to ODAR because of the lack of in-house people. Taking away from their flexibility and selection size at the cert level will be an OPM declaration of all out war on ODAR. The only way they could make things worse is to do some kind of serious audit of the ODAR selection process after the hirings. All of this info on a new cert process started with this comment by ALJD: aljdiscussion.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=gotopost&board=1&thread=2479&post=51594This information was also spoken about in various meetings between management. Now I am not sure if there is a practical change in the way things will be done or not but no doubt it will cause ODAR to jump through a few hoops to accomplish what they need / want.
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Post by robespierre on Apr 21, 2014 21:06:53 GMT -5
It's clever, Sandifer, but I see it as simpler and more fedgov-like for OPM to just send X number of names (10? 12? 15?) to SSA per vacancy, and assume that this will yield at least 3 viable candidates for each vacancy.
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Post by Highlander on Apr 21, 2014 23:01:54 GMT -5
In case I missed something, are there any future decisions or actions on my part during the cert/interview portion of the process that may be informed by knowing exactly how OPM creates the cert and how SSA selects from it? If I am fortunate enough to make the cert, interview and get offered a position, I will accept regardless of location. Just trying to understand if knowing how the OPM/SSA sausage is made matters if I will eat whatever I am offered with deep gratitude, regardless of what flavor it is...be it Mt Pleasant, Valparaiso, Flint, etc.
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Post by moopigsdad on Apr 22, 2014 4:30:22 GMT -5
In case I missed something, are there any future decisions or actions on my part during the cert/interview portion of the process that may be informed by knowing exactly how OPM creates the cert and how SSA selects from it? If I am fortunate enough to make the cert, interview and get offered a position, I will accept regardless of location. Just trying to understand if knowing how the OPM/SSA sausage is made matters if I will eat whatever I am offered with deep gratitude, regardless of what flavor it is...be it Mt Pleasant, Valparaiso, Flint, etc. No there is no real intrinsic value in knowing how SSA and OPM pulls all the certs Highlander, other than to determine how far down the Register OPM goes and which cities SSA has openings in for ALJs. As long as you actually make the cert and receive an interview, the how, who, what, when, where and why OPM and SSA perform for the creation of the certs will not be part of the interview process or your eventual hiring, if you are so lucky. We are just trying to speculate for those individuals on the Register with limited GALs and NOR scores under 75 or so. It allows us to pass time while we wait and gives some hope to those with lower NOR scores or some limitations in GAL. Good luck to you, my friend!
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Post by funkyodar on Apr 22, 2014 7:27:08 GMT -5
You, highlander, are absolutely right. It doesn't matter in the grand scheme how they make the sausage. We each will eat what we are served.
Nothing we can do to speed up the process or better our chances. In the end, they are gonna hire 90 judges this fiscal year and we each have the same hopes and chances of those in our positions on past registers.
But, trying to figure out this new process does serve a few purposes. One, as Mpd noted, it helps pass the time. Two, also noted by Mpd, it helps people try and figure whether their score and gal will make the cert. I suspect this new process will result in some that would have made the cert in the past missing out now. Conversely, some who may not have made it last time might find themselves on one of these due to what I perceive to be slight elevation of gal import given our polling.
Next, the new process would, at least upon initial examination, appear to change the game. In regard to vets and insiders. Looks like it may be more difficult for odar to use some of its old strategies to 3 strike high scorers to get to down reg folks they want.
Finally, theorizing is therapeutic in a morbid curiosity sense. Some swine in the line at the sausage mill may prefer blissful ignorance of their fate. Others find comfort in knowing each step in the process.
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Post by funkyodar on Apr 22, 2014 8:01:46 GMT -5
If funk ran opm:
Opm receives 45 individual city cert requests for a total of 90 judges. For the sake of this example, assume its a perfect 2 judges for each locale (tho this works if its not, as well). Further, let's assume ssa reaquested 5 names per slot (as offered by the source, but could work with 3 per or any number really).
So, opm needs to cert 10 people for each city for a total of 450 cert positions.
Arrange the cities in some fashion, alphabetically, the order ssa submitted the reaquests, doesn't matter. Now you have them numbered 1 to 45.
Start at #1 and pull the top 10 scorers with that city on their gal. Do the same for each city.
Anyone that appears on just one city's cert, count that person as 1 of the 450. IE:
Andy is in the top 10 for only City 1. He counts as 1 cert slot.
Beth is on the certs for City 1 and 2, but no others. She counts as 2 of the 450 slots.
Carl is on Cities 1, 2 and 3. He counts as 3 slots.
Now Dave is where it gets tricky. Dave is in the top 10 for each city and has all 45 cities in his gal. But, we know that Dave, under the 3 strike rule, is only entitled to 3 bona fide considerations. After that, he is likely to be hired or 3 struck. At the hiring agencies discretion, of course. So, we don't count dave as 45 cert positions. We count him as 3. He counts against the 10 for cities 1, 2 and 3. He is on the certs for cities 4 thru 45, but isn't counted against their 10 per.
So, now, cities 4 thru 45 actually go thru the top 11 scorers. Eva, who wasn't in the top 10 for any of the 45 cities, but was #11 for Valpraiso, Toledo and Grand Rapids, is now on the cert for those three cities by virtue of the assumption that Dave will be hired or struck and thus removed from all consideration before those cities are worked.
So, essentially, everyone gets consideration for the cities within which they are top 10 candidates but no single person counts as more than 3 of the 450 slots.
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Post by Gaidin on Apr 22, 2014 8:16:18 GMT -5
If funk ran opm: Opm receives 45 individual city cert requests for a total of 90 judges. For the sake of this example, assume its a perfect 2 judges for each locale (tho this works if its not, as well). Further, let's assume ssa reaquested 5 names per slot (as offered by the source, but could work with 3 per or any number really). So, opm needs to cert 10 people for each city for a total of 450 cert positions. Arrange the cities in some fashion, alphabetically, the order ssa submitted the reaquests, doesn't matter. Now you have them numbered 1 to 45. Start at #1 and pull the top 10 scorers with that city on their gal. Do the same for each city. Anyone that appears on just one city's cert, count that person as 1 of the 450. IE: Andy is in the top 10 for only City 1. He counts as 1 cert slot. Beth is on the certs for City 1 and 2, but no others. She counts as 2 of the 450 slots. Carl is on Cities 1, 2 and 3. He counts as 3 slots. Now Dave is where it gets tricky. Dave is in the top 10 for each city and has all 45 cities in his gal. But, we know that Dave, under the 3 strike rule, is only entitled to 3 bona fide considerations. After that, he is likely to be hired or 3 struck. At the hiring agencies discretion, of course. So, we don't count dave as 45 cert positions. We count him as 3. He counts against the 10 for cities 1, 2 and 3. He is on the certs for cities 4 thru 45, but isn't counted against their 10 per. So, now, cities 4 thru 45 actually go thru the top 11 scorers. Eva, who wasn't in the top 10 for any of the 45 cities, but was #11 for Valpraiso, Toledo and Grand Rapids, is now on the cert for those three cities by virtue of the assumption that Dave will be hired or struck and thus removed from all consideration before those cities are worked. So, essentially, everyone gets consideration for the cities within which they are top 10 candidates but no single person counts as more than 3 of the 450 slots. This makes a lot of sense. I would add that I'm not sure the insiders are taking a long enough view of ODAR's desire to get more insiders in as ALJs. There has been a lot of speculation about how much heart burn the agency will have if it takes a while to get the desired number of insiders. I will accept that ODAR does in fact desire to hire insiders. Mostly because I don't have any reason to doubt it. But if the last register lasted 6 years and ODAR was still going back to OPM to get tweaks made (i.e. letting people add cities to their GAL) so that they could get to the favored sons or daughters why do you think that they will be mad if it takes a year or two to get to them off this register. Bureaucracies are like river barges they almost always get where they are going but it takes forever to get there and they look like crap doing it. Oh and woe be unto you if they have to make a course correction.
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Post by moopigsdad on Apr 22, 2014 8:16:24 GMT -5
If funk ran opm: Opm receives 45 individual city cert requests for a total of 90 judges. For the sake of this example, assume its a perfect 2 judges for each locale (tho this works if its not, as well). Further, let's assume ssa reaquested 5 names per slot (as offered by the source, but could work with 3 per or any number really). So, opm needs to cert 10 people for each city for a total of 450 cert positions. Arrange the cities in some fashion, alphabetically, the order ssa submitted the reaquests, doesn't matter. Now you have them numbered 1 to 45. Start at #1 and pull the top 10 scorers with that city on their gal. Do the same for each city. Anyone that appears on just one city's cert, count that person as 1 of the 450. IE: Andy is in the top 10 for only City 1. He counts as 1 cert slot. Beth is on the certs for City 1 and 2, but no others. She counts as 2 of the 450 slots. Carl is on Cities 1, 2 and 3. He counts as 3 slots. Now Dave is where it gets tricky. Dave is in the top 10 for each city and has all 45 cities in his gal. But, we know that Dave, under the 3 strike rule, is only entitled to 3 bona fide considerations. After that, he is likely to be hired or 3 struck. At the hiring agencies discretion, of course. So, we don't count dave as 45 cert positions. We count him as 3. He counts against the 10 for cities 1, 2 and 3. He is on the certs for cities 4 thru 45, but isn't counted against their 10 per. So, now, cities 4 thru 45 actually go thru the top 11 scorers. Eva, who wasn't in the top 10 for any of the 45 cities, but was #11 for Valpraiso, Toledo and Grand Rapids, is now on the cert for those three cities by virtue of the assumption that Dave will be hired or struck and thus removed from all consideration before those cities are worked. So, essentially, everyone gets consideration for the cities within which they are top 10 candidates but no single person counts as more than 3 of the 450 slots. So, funky to simply your OPM world even more, if there were 120 people with 3 of the top "supposed" ten scores for each of the 450 slots (45 cities) that would leave open only 90 slots (with each person, let's say, having only one of the cities on their GAL) for the others. So, in reality under your scenario, there might only be 120 people plus 90 people which equal a total of 210 people to be interviewed by SSA for the 450 slots in the 45 cities total. I like the scenario, but once again depending upon the SSA interviews (unless all are vet preference individuals of the 210 total people) may not necessarily leave SSA with enough qualified individuals to fill all 90 ALJ spots to their liking. I am just spinning off your example funky. I like it, just like parts of sandifer's, but there are some issues that could cause problems for SSA down the line.
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Post by moopigsdad on Apr 22, 2014 8:21:00 GMT -5
By the way, I know I am just nit-picking at other people's theories and not coming up with one myself, but I don't have the incredible time needed to come up with a viable theory of how it should be done. I think if we tweaked either sandifer's or your plan slightly, they could work great. I am not trying to be the bad guy here, I am only pointing out weaknesses that exist, so maybe those could be corrected by someone to make the plans somewhat foolproof.
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Post by moopigsdad on Apr 22, 2014 8:30:51 GMT -5
If funk ran opm: Opm receives 45 individual city cert requests for a total of 90 judges. For the sake of this example, assume its a perfect 2 judges for each locale (tho this works if its not, as well). Further, let's assume ssa reaquested 5 names per slot (as offered by the source, but could work with 3 per or any number really). So, opm needs to cert 10 people for each city for a total of 450 cert positions. Arrange the cities in some fashion, alphabetically, the order ssa submitted the reaquests, doesn't matter. Now you have them numbered 1 to 45. Start at #1 and pull the top 10 scorers with that city on their gal. Do the same for each city. Anyone that appears on just one city's cert, count that person as 1 of the 450. IE: Andy is in the top 10 for only City 1. He counts as 1 cert slot. Beth is on the certs for City 1 and 2, but no others. She counts as 2 of the 450 slots. Carl is on Cities 1, 2 and 3. He counts as 3 slots. Now Dave is where it gets tricky. Dave is in the top 10 for each city and has all 45 cities in his gal. But, we know that Dave, under the 3 strike rule, is only entitled to 3 bona fide considerations. After that, he is likely to be hired or 3 struck. At the hiring agencies discretion, of course. So, we don't count dave as 45 cert positions. We count him as 3. He counts against the 10 for cities 1, 2 and 3. He is on the certs for cities 4 thru 45, but isn't counted against their 10 per. So, now, cities 4 thru 45 actually go thru the top 11 scorers. Eva, who wasn't in the top 10 for any of the 45 cities, but was #11 for Valpraiso, Toledo and Grand Rapids, is now on the cert for those three cities by virtue of the assumption that Dave will be hired or struck and thus removed from all consideration before those cities are worked. So, essentially, everyone gets consideration for the cities within which they are top 10 candidates but no single person counts as more than 3 of the 450 slots. This makes a lot of sense. I would add that I'm not sure the insiders are taking a long enough view of ODAR's desire to get more insiders in as ALJs. There has been a lot of speculation about how much heart burn the agency will have if it takes a while to get the desired number of insiders. I will accept that ODAR does in fact desire to hire insiders. Mostly because I don't have any reason to doubt it. But if the last register lasted 6 years and ODAR was still going back to OPM to get tweaks made (i.e. letting people add cities to their GAL) so that they could get to the favored sons or daughters why do you think that they will be mad if it takes a year or two to get to them off this register. Bureaucracies are like river barges they almost always get where they are going but it takes forever to get there and they look like crap doing it. Oh and woe be unto you if they have to make a course correction. I am not so sure Gaidin that SSA is out to get to all it's insiders as you believe. I think they are just looking for qualified individuals who can fit their "expected" system of ALJ decision-making. Yes, the insiders have a leg up on the outsiders with all other things being equal, but SSA will pick outsiders too, if they can fall within the parameters of SSA's preference for high performing decision-makers who are team players. This is the reason SSA does it's extensive interview process and reference check in order to determine if an individual will fit it's preferred system of ALJs. However, I do agree that if I had a lower NOR score, I would much rather be an insider than an outsider as the chances of being hired will be greater as an insider than as an outsider. At the upper end of the NOR scores, I don't think the insider versus outsider difference will be as telling, IMHO.
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Post by Gaidin on Apr 22, 2014 8:53:00 GMT -5
This makes a lot of sense. I would add that I'm not sure the insiders are taking a long enough view of ODAR's desire to get more insiders in as ALJs. There has been a lot of speculation about how much heart burn the agency will have if it takes a while to get the desired number of insiders. I will accept that ODAR does in fact desire to hire insiders. Mostly because I don't have any reason to doubt it. But if the last register lasted 6 years and ODAR was still going back to OPM to get tweaks made (i.e. letting people add cities to their GAL) so that they could get to the favored sons or daughters why do you think that they will be mad if it takes a year or two to get to them off this register. Bureaucracies are like river barges they almost always get where they are going but it takes forever to get there and they look like crap doing it. Oh and woe be unto you if they have to make a course correction. I am not so sure Gaidin that SSA is out to get to all it's insiders as you believe. I think they are just looking for qualified individuals who can fit their "expected" system of ALJ decision-making. Yes, the insiders have a leg up on the outsiders with all other things being equal, but SSA will pick outsiders too, if they can fall within the parameters of SSA's preference for high performing decision-makers who are team players. This is the reason SSA does it's extensive interview process and reference check in order to determine if an individual will fit it's preferred system of ALJs. However, I do agree that if I had a lower NOR score, I would much rather be an insider than an outsider as the chances of being hired will be greater as an insider than as an outsider. At the upper end of the NOR scores, I don't think the insider versus outsider difference will be as telling, IMHO. I will confess that I am not sold on the idea that they want insiders as much as they want people who can make the numbers. I agree that the interview and reference check are designed to find people who seem more likely to hit the targets. They probably are also to weed out folks whose attitude makes them an unlikely fit for the agency. That being said the conventional board wisdom is that they want insiders and I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that if two roughly equal candidates were in front of them that they wouldn't pick the insider over the outsider almost every time.
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Post by hopefalj on Apr 22, 2014 9:06:32 GMT -5
This makes a lot of sense. I would add that I'm not sure the insiders are taking a long enough view of ODAR's desire to get more insiders in as ALJs. There has been a lot of speculation about how much heart burn the agency will have if it takes a while to get the desired number of insiders. I will accept that ODAR does in fact desire to hire insiders. Mostly because I don't have any reason to doubt it. But if the last register lasted 6 years and ODAR was still going back to OPM to get tweaks made (i.e. letting people add cities to their GAL) so that they could get to the favored sons or daughters why do you think that they will be mad if it takes a year or two to get to them off this register. Bureaucracies are like river barges they almost always get where they are going but it takes forever to get there and they look like crap doing it. Oh and woe be unto you if they have to make a course correction. I am not so sure Gaidin that SSA is out to get to all it's insiders as you believe. I think they are just looking for qualified individuals who can fit their "expected" system of ALJ decision-making. Yes, the insiders have a leg up on the outsiders with all other things being equal, but SSA will pick outsiders too, if they can fall within the parameters of SSA's preference for high performing decision-makers who are team players. This is the reason SSA does it's extensive interview process and reference check in order to determine if an individual will fit it's preferred system of ALJs. However, I do agree that if I had a lower NOR score, I would much rather be an insider than an outsider as the chances of being hired will be greater as an insider than as an outsider. At the upper end of the NOR scores, I don't think the insider versus outsider difference will be as telling, IMHO. I think all of us know insiders that were passed over in previous certs, so I agree that not all insiders will be hired. Being a known quantity is a double-edged sword. If you're a team player that is highly efficient in pumping out decisions or getting your DWs to pump out decisions, then that's a good thing. If you're a problem child that puts out 15 decisions a month, then they'll pass. If one of your higher ups perceives you to be this way or you handle your SSA interview like Ben Affleck in Good Will Hunting, you're equally dead. This is true whether your NOR is high or low. Basically, if they want you, they'll eventually get you. If they don't want you or aren't sure, they'll go by you to get to someone they want. Insiders have an advantage in being a known quantity, but it's only an advantage if they like what they know.
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Post by JudgeRatty on Apr 22, 2014 9:08:10 GMT -5
I am not so sure Gaidin that SSA is out to get to all it's insiders as you believe. I think they are just looking for qualified individuals who can fit their "expected" system of ALJ decision-making. Yes, the insiders have a leg up on the outsiders with all other things being equal, but SSA will pick outsiders too, if they can fall within the parameters of SSA's preference for high performing decision-makers who are team players. This is the reason SSA does it's extensive interview process and reference check in order to determine if an individual will fit it's preferred system of ALJs. However, I do agree that if I had a lower NOR score, I would much rather be an insider than an outsider as the chances of being hired will be greater as an insider than as an outsider. At the upper end of the NOR scores, I don't think the insider versus outsider difference will be as telling, IMHO. I think all of us know insiders that were passed over in previous certs, so I agree that not all insiders will be hired. Being a known quantity is a double-edged sword. If you're a team player that is highly efficient in pumping out decisions or getting your DWs to pump out decisions, then that's a good thing. If you're a problem child that puts out 15 decisions a month, then they'll pass. If one of your higher ups perceives you to be this way or you handle your SSA interview like Ben Affleck in Good Will Hunting, you're equally dead. This is true whether your NOR is high or low. Basically, if they want you, they'll eventually get you. If they don't want you or aren't sure, they'll go by you to get to someone they want. Insiders have an advantage in being a known quantity, but it's only an advantage if they like what they know. Exactly.
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Post by funkyodar on Apr 22, 2014 9:12:11 GMT -5
Let's not turn this to another insider/outsider tiff.
Feel free to tweak away at the theory. It definitely has flaws. Not sure I see how the lack of enough qualified candidates is one of them tho. Seems to me that would only be an issue in a fantasy world where every candidate has a wide gal. From our polling it appears only around 25% have gals so wide as to include all 45 guessed cert locales.
Clearly they can't count each person once for every cert they appear on. That would give them way too few.
Similarly, I just can't buy the "unique" names theory. By the time you count each multicerter then add whatever it takes to ensure each city has 3, 5 or whatever number of unique names the certs just too large to be practical.
So, I think you have to blend them. Count the multicerters for some number of slots, but not all upon which they appear. Considering the 3 strike rule, counting them for 3, but no more, makes sense.
I'm having a hard time believing they will have many more than 300 folks on the cert.
I think (tho I haven't really studied the math) this theory would result in that 270 to 300 unique folks taking 450 cert slots, given our gal polling.
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Post by moopigsdad on Apr 22, 2014 9:52:42 GMT -5
If our polling is correct roughly 200 people or so would have wide open or nearly wide open GALs (25% of those polled). However, I tend to think that applies only to those all those aware of the Board, but the numbers for those not aware of the Board may be only 5 or maybe 10% at best with wide open or nearly wide open GALs. When, I was in D.C. most people were unaware of the Board and most people had limited or nearly limited GALs. Hence, in reality there may only be a total of 110 or 120 or so individuals with wide or nearly wide open GALs on the Register as a whole. There is no doubt all those people will likely make a cert either this time or next time for sure.
There are clearly others with limited or nearly limited GALs which fall within the likely 45 locations for the certs. Let's split up the country into 5 somewhat equal regions, East, West, East Crapland, Crapland and West Crapland. Hence if we subtract 120 individuals from the say total of 820 individuals on the Register, it leaves approximately 700 individuals split among the five various U.S. regions described above. If we further assume each of the five regions are close to equally split with limited GAL locations, it would mean that there are approximately 140 individuals in each region with one or more GAL locations in the region. Hence, let's say the majority of the upcoming certs are from three of the five regions. Hence, there are possibility of 120 individuals (wide open or nearly wide open GALs) and another 420 individuals (limited or nearly limited GALs) that OPM could give to SSA for the 45 locations. It is not likely OPM will give SSA 540 names. Hence, there will be a NOR score cutoff. It will likely be in the area of acquiring as funky stated about 270 to 300 names. (540 possible names minus 300 names needed leaves 240 names without being called. Hence, it is likely the certs will stop somewhere in the area of a NOR score of 70 give or take a few points.
It is likely, those not called this time for certs and SSA interviews out of the total 540 names will likely be called the next time SSA requests new certs (which according to reports on this Board is likely to be another 90 ALJs in the next fiscal year). Those with limited or mostly limited GALs in the popular regions of the country are likely to be the only ones left out of the equation of certs and interviews by SSA in the long run. Therefore, from the present existing Register prior to any Refresh, I think close to 2/3 or more of all individuals on the Register will at least receive a cert and SSA interview. Perhaps, even closer to 3/4 of all on the Register.
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Post by Gaidin on Apr 22, 2014 10:52:06 GMT -5
If I ever get to Falls Church I am hoping we can form a soft ball/kick ball league for the training where the East Crapland Eagles take on the West Crapland Warthogs after hours.
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