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Post by mamaru on Aug 8, 2014 15:48:11 GMT -5
Back to the original thread - I think there's a difference between accumulating the info that others have posted about themselves into a chart (many have volunatarily given out all the details) AND interpolating or guesstimating data from posts in which the poster did NOT post details, and maybe that reticence was on purpose. As to this last bit, SeaLaw, you seem to live in a very - ah - interesting part of the country. It definitely sounds Python-worthy! My point exactly. My problem is not with using information that people have disclosed about themselves, and I would never presume to tell anyone what to share or not to share (that's purely personal), but with speculating about details they have (for whatever reason) chosen not to share. I think that doing that will have a "chilling effect" on poll responses which are structured to preserve anonymity. I do not think there were any bad actors here - simply well intentioned board members trying to make sense out of a new and confusing process.
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Post by JudgeRatty on Aug 9, 2014 17:02:24 GMT -5
Just to keep info in the right threads..... aljdiscussion.proboards.com/post/61590/threadSounds like mid Sept to early Oct for the party to begin again....yippee! Good luck to all and I sure hope I get to be in the mix this next time around!
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Post by orchid on Aug 11, 2014 13:33:12 GMT -5
Hey Scoobies, We may be about a month away from the second cert! Anyone have any guesses as to which cities may be up for grabs?
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Post by moopigsdad on Aug 11, 2014 13:45:51 GMT -5
We will see a lot of repeats from the first cert along with a few new ones. Not all of the locations on the first cert were filled completely leaving room for others to come into the locations. Perhaps, someone will get us an updated transfer list later this month and Gaidin can do his magic on it.
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Post by gary on Aug 11, 2014 14:11:32 GMT -5
We will see a lot of repeats from the first cert along with a few new ones. Not all of the locations on the first cert were filled completely leaving room for others to come into the locations. Perhaps, someone will get us an updated transfer list later this month and Gaidin can do his magic on it. Gaidin needs a new avatar with a cape and top hat, and a change of name to "Gaidin the Magnificent," because what he does looks as magical to me as disapparating.
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Post by Gram Pop on Aug 11, 2014 15:40:26 GMT -5
Is there any consensus as to whether or not the next cert will come before or after October 1 and the start of the new fiscal year? Rumors, back-channel emails, tea leaves and general gossip are all acceptable sources.
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Post by sandiferhands (old) on Aug 11, 2014 16:06:45 GMT -5
Is there any consensus as to whether or not the next cert will come before or after October 1 and the start of the new fiscal year? Rumors, back-channel emails, tea leaves and general gossip are all acceptable sources. I'm an outsider also Outsider so I have no info other that what I've read here. However, if the intel about November interviews is correct I would think the cert would have to come significantly before Oct. 1. There will need to be time to notify everyone on the cert, and get references returned, and for ODAR to check references and schedule interviews for November. My WAG is that the 2nd cert will be requested once the obligatory working of the transfer list is complete after this round of offers from the 1st cert is finalized--early September say my tea leaves.
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Post by WhereIsTheFrontDoor on Aug 11, 2014 16:39:02 GMT -5
This is the timeline for the past cert:
The first cert process had NOR's going out on or about March 13, and a cert being issued (emails notifying candidates of the cities they were on) the week of May 1, 2014. Interviews were then set for the first couple weeks of June. The first offer was reported on the board on July 9, 2014.
Because some of the candidates on the next cert will have already been vetted and interviewed, it doesn't seem like it would take quite as long to get everything completed if everything stays the same. But everyone "in the know" seems to guess September as the month the new cert will drop.
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Post by moopigsdad on Aug 11, 2014 17:18:57 GMT -5
The 2nd cert notifications to us are not likely to drop until very late September or early October. SSA will likely ask for the 2nd cert from OPM some time in late August or early September.
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Post by Missundaztood on Aug 11, 2014 18:19:15 GMT -5
OPM needs to take the new ALJs off the register before issuing more certs, or so I hope.
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Post by gary on Aug 11, 2014 18:51:53 GMT -5
And needs to note which ones SSA has three-struck (or whatever they do about that) so they aren't included.
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Post by Gaidin on Aug 11, 2014 20:24:08 GMT -5
We will see a lot of repeats from the first cert along with a few new ones. Not all of the locations on the first cert were filled completely leaving room for others to come into the locations. Perhaps, someone will get us an updated transfer list later this month and Gaidin can do his magic on it. Gaidin needs a new avatar with a cape and top hat, and a change of name to "Gaidin the Magnificent," because what he does looks as magical to me as disapparating. Aww shucks guys. I will tell you I have some ideas how to incorporate a lot of the loose floating data we have around here. I am going to add some columns to show not only the frequency of cities on the cert up to and including the most recent but also where the recent hires went. Then add in the transfer data. I just need the next transfer list (redacted of course) and the list of where the September start date folks are going and how many to each locale. I think the second cert drops mid September for what that is worth.
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Post by anotherfed on Aug 11, 2014 21:52:45 GMT -5
I don't think it will take OPM that long to eliminate names from the list. I think it is possible that the 2nd cert could overlap the transfer list -- that's what seems to have happened n the first cert, where cities went unfilled from the certs and were possibly filled by transfers. I vote for early to mid September for the second round of certs, and I'll guess 50 city certs.
I'll amend that: assuming Funky's intell is accurate that interviewers are lined up for November, I think the latest the second round of certs will drop is the beginning of October. I would think ODAR would want to get interviews wrapped before Thanksgiving, so maybe the first 2 weeks in Nov or the last week of Oct- 1st week of Nov. I'm assuming 1 month to schedule interviews and make travel arrangements, and this is supposed to be a larger cert. 200 by the end of the CY would make this cert 110+ the stragglers from the first round.
Enjoy the respite, folks, we're in for turbulence ahead!
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Post by gary on Aug 11, 2014 22:07:27 GMT -5
I'm guessing 128 positions and 64 cities.
If that's correct: In excess of 214 but likely less than 250 unique names on the certs.
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Post by anotherfed on Aug 11, 2014 22:13:39 GMT -5
I'm guessing 128 positions and 64 cities. Dang, you're precise! But essentially the same numbers I came up with (I still think more than 72 were hired; we just don't know them because they are Board outies).
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Post by hopefalj on Aug 11, 2014 22:17:30 GMT -5
I'm guessing 128 positions and 64 cities. If that's correct: In excess of 214 but likely less than 250 unique names on the certs. I'll guess fewer positions and cities. Maybe 100-110 will be filled for 50ish cities. I'm very curious to see if NHC locales show up and whether SSA gets more names from the register this time around.
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Post by gary on Aug 11, 2014 22:18:08 GMT -5
I'm guessing 128 positions and 64 cities. Dang, you're precise! But essentially the same numbers I came up with (I still think more than 72 were hired; we just don't know them because they are Board outies). Someone reported getting an email for the newly minted ALJs having 36 email addresses. I'm figuring (as with an earlier email to folks on the certs) this email was to half of the new ALJs. On that basis I am going with 72 hired. That leaves 128 to get to the 200 they are reported to be looking to hire before year's end. That's my starting point.
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Post by sandiferhands (old) on Aug 12, 2014 8:54:07 GMT -5
Dang, you're precise! But essentially the same numbers I came up with (I still think more than 72 were hired; we just don't know them because they are Board outies). Someone reported getting an email for the newly minted ALJs having 36 email addresses. I'm figuring (as with an earlier email to folks on the certs) this email was to half of the new ALJs. On that basis I am going with 72 hired. That leaves 128 to get to the 200 they are reported to be looking to hire before year's end. That's my starting point. Solid deduction based on the intel we have. But is the "200" still a valid number given the surprisingly small hire off this first cert? Also, presumably more vet prefs were considered and handled on this first cert, since they would naturally tend to cluster around the higher end of the scores. Without as many prefs to dictate who can be hired from a given three candidates, will ODAR have more room to "maneuver" candidates this go-round, as in previous years? Will Funky's intel that this hire was almost half/half insiders/outsiders hold true for the second cert? I can't even post a good-faith WAG on these questions.
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Post by JudgeRatty on Aug 12, 2014 9:18:01 GMT -5
Someone reported getting an email for the newly minted ALJs having 36 email addresses. I'm figuring (as with an earlier email to folks on the certs) this email was to half of the new ALJs. On that basis I am going with 72 hired. That leaves 128 to get to the 200 they are reported to be looking to hire before year's end. That's my starting point. Solid deduction based on the intel we have. But is the "200" still a valid number given the surprisingly small hire off this first cert? Also, presumably more vet prefs were considered and handled on this first cert, since they would naturally tend to cluster around the higher end of the scores. Without as many prefs to dictate who can be hired from a given three candidates, will ODAR have more room to "maneuver" candidates this go-round, as in previous years? Will Funky's intel that this hire was almost half/half insiders/outsiders hold true for the second cert? I can't even post a good-faith WAG on these questions. Tomorrow is an All manager's call and the topic of hiring is usually an agenda item so tomorrow may bring some answers.
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Post by hopefalj on Aug 12, 2014 9:33:39 GMT -5
Someone reported getting an email for the newly minted ALJs having 36 email addresses. I'm figuring (as with an earlier email to folks on the certs) this email was to half of the new ALJs. On that basis I am going with 72 hired. That leaves 128 to get to the 200 they are reported to be looking to hire before year's end. That's my starting point. Solid deduction based on the intel we have. But is the "200" still a valid number given the surprisingly small hire off this first cert? Also, presumably more vet prefs were considered and handled on this first cert, since they would naturally tend to cluster around the higher end of the scores. Without as many prefs to dictate who can be hired from a given three candidates, will ODAR have more room to "maneuver" candidates this go-round, as in previous years? Will Funky's intel that this hire was almost half/half insiders/outsiders hold true for the second cert? I can't even post a good-faith WAG on these questions. I think 200 is still the goal, much like 90 from the first cert was. But we know what happens with the best laid plans. IMHO, there won't be 200 new hires by the end of the calendar year, and SSA isn't going to be bothered by that. If they are willing to make fewer than 90 hires off cert 1 and in FY2014, not hiring the full 200 by the end of the calendar year isn't going to be a problem. There will be a third cert sometime in 2015, and they could easily hire anywhere from 50-90 judges off that cert as well before the end of FY 2015. If their ultimate goal is to hire 250ish judges by the end of FY 2015, it can be done in an infinite number of ways with three large certs. If another goal is to reach as many favored sons and daughters as possible, going about it in a way that allows them to delve as far into the register and see as many unique names as possible also makes sense. That would include three striking like crazy and requesting additional names from OPM on subsequent certs. I have no idea whether they've done the former or will be successful in the latter, but when I raised the possibility of SSA hiring far below the 90 judge level a couple of months ago, my scenario was premised on strategic three striking and hiring to wind up with insufficient names for multiple cities or openings so that they could use the unfilled openings to get more unique names on subsequent certs. Not to state the obvious, but it will definitely be interesting to see what happens with cert 2.
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