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Post by anotherfed on Dec 6, 2014 14:14:55 GMT -5
Great. Every time someone says that in Hunger Games, the odds are stacked against you. Maybe that is what 'Fed had planned... Muahahahah.... er, ... of course not. I have the highest respect for everyone on this Board and wish everyone well.
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Post by mamaru on Dec 6, 2014 14:27:46 GMT -5
Bob won't be placing any calls on December 26 - we won't be working that day. Woo-hoo.
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Post by gary on Dec 6, 2014 14:33:08 GMT -5
Bob won't be placing any calls on December 26 - we won't be working that day. Woo-hoo. Does that mean he'll be doubling his calls the 25th?
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Post by moopigsdad on Dec 6, 2014 14:59:24 GMT -5
Sir the odds were slightly better for those in the first cert with a 40 to 45% chance of being hired. I am not so sure the 300 number here is correct as to the total competing. I believe it to be slight less. As to hires it is likely to be around 75 to 85 total to be hired from this cert. The odds are probably closer to 30 to 35% chance of being hired this time or 1 in 3 chance. Those are still good odds, however remember the odds of those with a wide open GAL are higher than those with a very limited GAL. All I can say is keep your fingers crossed and hope for the best. Good luck to all! Sir - in addition to all the ever changing variables that have been discussed, there's 2 more overlays that move this process even closer to the "magic" than the "science" end of things: the veterans preference aspect and the fact that for any one position they actually consider only 3 at a time, but which 3 depends upon all of the stuff mentioned above AND who they want to hire for which city and where that candidate stands in relation to others on the various city lists. it is a 3 dimensional chessboard with constantly moving pieces, hence our name The Puzzle Palace for the folks making the selections. Even the temptation to just take the easy calculation of how many open slots to how many unique names is waaaay off, because we don't have complete verification of even those raw numbers and as the process proceeds these numbers seem to shift. Last time for the rumored 90 slots they filled about 70-75, a shortfall of over 20%. That introduces a lot of error into the nice, neat mathematical analysis some would like. So hey, instead of stressing & wrangling about unknowable numbers, how about taking a trip over to the Drink of the Day thread & helping me out by posting a favorite recipe? (Shameless plug). ? Luckylady2 the reason for less hiring the first time was because SSA didn't want to make all of the choices they would have had to make to hire a full 90 without being able to see more candidates. SSA wanted to see further down the register to determine what choices are available. Now, they know what is available down the list and they want to hire 250 before October 1st, so they will be hiring the best available to meet their needs. Hence, the likely hiring of 75 to 85 or more is assured from this cert. However, you are correct about the adjustments for vets, choice of cities in what order, etc., it is a puzzle, but the number of hires from this cert for the January class and future classes is pretty close to be assured of a total of 75 to 85 or higher. . (Edited for clarity)
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Post by Missundaztood on Dec 6, 2014 15:32:27 GMT -5
If SSA didn't like folks on the first certs, then it should have three-struck us, but it didn't. Sorry, mpd, but I don't buy it. More folks does allow for more manipulation of the offers, but I don't believe SSA didn't like the rest of us first cert'ers. When SSA doesn't hire some new second cert folks, I won't assume that it is because SSA didn't like them (in some cases it is true, but not across the board-just too much of a generalization). I believe other factors were in play, like time, new rules for offers, and class size.
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Post by luckylady2 on Dec 6, 2014 15:55:06 GMT -5
Thx MPD - you always have good balancing information. I also think that the 1st cert off a new register just has so many more variables in play - like the top scores being picked off by other agencies; the new one-cert-per-city protocol, which apparently kicked a new one-offer-at-a-time protocol; and candidates that came from a larger population pool (less insiders) who expected the job offer process to be more like private practice, so took a full 48 hours or longer to respond. By the second round of certs, both the hirers and the hireees are much more dialed in to the new landscape.
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Post by anotherfed on Dec 6, 2014 18:07:22 GMT -5
If SSA didn't like folks on the first certs, then it should have three-struck us, but it didn't. Sorry, mpd, but I don't buy it. More folks does allow for more manipulation of the offers, but I don't believe SSA didn't like the rest of us first cert'ers. When SSA doesn't hire some new second cert folks, I won't assume that it is because SSA didn't like them (in some cases it is true, but not across the board-just too much of a generalization). I believe other factors were in play, like time, new rules for offers, and class size. I agree. There are too many factors in play to generalize. We already have reports that two people from the first certs have received offers, even before the second certs came out. Too many people were left after the first hires to assume that SSA didn't like them. Maybe there was too much overlap in limited GALs. We'll probably never know. But those same people were again forwarded to SSA on the second set of certs, so they are clearly still in play.
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Post by Missundaztood on Dec 6, 2014 18:13:50 GMT -5
If I don't get an offer for this register EVER, then I will concede that SSA doesn't like me, for whatever reason (interview, references, disagreeing with mpd...). But I need to keep hope alive as we settle in for the long wait before offers start rolling out.
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Post by anotherfed on Dec 6, 2014 18:20:35 GMT -5
If I don't get an offer for this register EVER, then I will concede that SSA doesn't like me, for whatever reason (interview, references, disagreeing with mpd...). But I need to keep hope alive as we settle in for the long wait before offers start rolling out. You will get an offer. You are a kick-a$$ candidate, and a great person. And, gosh darn it, people like you!
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Post by Missundaztood on Dec 6, 2014 18:23:42 GMT -5
Thanks, 'fed. Back atcha. But maybe I will start calling you Stuart Smalley.
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Post by anotherfed on Dec 6, 2014 18:29:53 GMT -5
It is soooo nice to converse with people who get my pop culture references. And if I were to say, "It's 106 miles to Chicago, we got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark... and we're wearing sunglasses," you would say ...?
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Post by JudgeRatty on Dec 6, 2014 18:51:01 GMT -5
It is soooo nice to converse with people who get my pop culture references. And if I were to say, "It's 106 miles to Chicago, we got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark... and we're wearing sunglasses," you would say ...? Hit it! LOL! Love Blues Brothers!
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Post by lizdarcy on Dec 6, 2014 18:52:49 GMT -5
we're on a mission from God
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Post by anotherfed on Dec 6, 2014 19:02:58 GMT -5
You said it, lizdarcy!
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Post by gary on Dec 6, 2014 19:30:50 GMT -5
The way I figure it, If I land the job, the first day of work I'll be walking outside at lunch when I'll look up, say, "Oh sh*t," and bam, get killed when I'm hit by a toilet seat from a Russian Space Station falling from the sky.
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Post by Missundaztood on Dec 6, 2014 19:47:20 GMT -5
The way I figure it, If I land the job, the first day of work I'll be walking outside at lunch when I'll look up, say, "Oh sh*t," and bam, get killed when I'm hit by a toilet seat from a Russian Space Station falling from the sky. Not that I wish you ill-will but under the circumstances you describe, I hope you are in the first class so SSA has time to hire someone else for the second class. Win-win.
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Post by gary on Dec 6, 2014 19:54:13 GMT -5
The way I figure it, If I land the job, the first day of work I'll be walking outside at lunch when I'll look up, say, "Oh sh*t," and bam, get killed when I'm hit by a toilet seat from a Russian Space Station falling from the sky. Not that I wish you ill-will but under the circumstances you describe, I hope you are in the first class so SSA has time to hire someone else for the second class. Win-win. Yep. Someone else would get the ALJ slot and I might get to be a reaper.
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Post by Missundaztood on Dec 6, 2014 20:00:44 GMT -5
Don't fear the reaper.
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Post by gary on Dec 6, 2014 21:36:12 GMT -5
I guess you guys weren't fans of that TV show.
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Post by Gaidin on Dec 6, 2014 21:59:41 GMT -5
I guess you guys weren't fans of that TV show. I loved that show. Pretty much anything Mandy Patinkin was ever in is amazing. Everyone should stop what they are doing and find Dead Like Me on their streaming video service of choice. I hated it when they cancelled it.
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