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Post by funkyodar on Mar 15, 2014 9:31:54 GMT -5
ALJD, workdrone, observer53 and others all noted at different times that once nors were out the board would be awash in newbies. Former lurkers that now join because it just got realz. They were obviously accurate. Seems most posts over the last couple of days are newbies coming on with questions about appeals, gals and odds of landing a job.
Welcome all. ALJD and others that run this board have done an excellent job of creating a community that fosters a atmosphere of civility and helpfulness despite the competitive nature of this process. Just remember, the search function is your friend. Questions about how the cert process works, the impact of gal selection and myriad other details are all here, discussed in great detail and offer a wealth of info.
Additionally, the candidate class of 2013, including yours funkily, has engaged in threads of threads offering all the speculation, swags and suspect odds extrapulation one could want. Read up, join in. This thread is a good start for some discussion. Admittedly it turned silly in the last page or 2 (but that was desperately needed at the time) but it has some good discussion of pre nor guesstimations.
Now with nors in hand lets see how the latest revelations impact the previously discussed possible timeline, odds and other factors.
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Post by funkyodar on Mar 15, 2014 10:12:41 GMT -5
Ok, I will start:
The register and first cert:
It appears everyone's best guess is this new register will have around 800 candidates on it with a mean score of 73 or so based on current polling.
The register is effective now and agencies can request a cert from it at any time. The fastest cert I have read mentioned was 12 days after the register was placed. Given the public statements of DC Sklar, odar is chomping at the bit so their first request for a cert may be that quick. There has also been discussion of medicare wanting a cert, but that may take more time.
Numbers? Sklar has made clear that odar will hire 90 new judges this year (though opms feetdragging may lower that some but probably not). OMHA's budget request indicated they may want to hire as many as 8 new judges though they may hire some or all of those from existing aljs and not from the register.
The rule of three dictates opm provide the three highest rated candidates for each opening. So, that would seem to imply odars cert will have 270 names. But some will be in the top 3 for more than one job and there are always extra names so 300 has been guessed as probably close.
Will you be on the cert? Mucho factors will decide this. Erroneous math would seem to indicate if 300 of 800 will be and they will be the top scorers, you will be on the cert if your score is in the top 37% or so. That's probably a good guideline, but no where near foolproof.
Your gal is the predominant factor. If you are the top scorer on the register but don't have any of the cities on the cert in your gal, you won't make the cert. The best statement I have seen on the board explaining this was to not give any thought to how many total slots odar will fill. You are not competing for 90 jobs. You are only competing for whatever slots they are filling that match a city on your gal. If you selected all of the above on gal you are competing for all 90 (subject of course to whether your score puts you in the top 3 for all 90 or some lesser number). if you put 20 cities but only 2 of those appear and the cert, you are competing for just 2 slots. And you are competing against everyone else that said they would go there including the all of the abovers. If your gal is limited to one or two places, you need an ultra high score to make a cert. And if those places are "popular" there may never be an opening there not filled by a current alj transfer and thus never any slots for that city on a cert. Conversely, if you are one of only a handful that said you would go to east crapland, you're lower score may still get you on a cert and land you a gig.
Don't lose hope though. I and others have postulated a few times that the sweetspot for nonvet middle of the pack or lower scorers may be the second cert. Many high scorers and preferential vets may get hired or 3 struck on the first cert clearing some obstacles for other down register folks. Additionally, Sklar has stated they wanted to hire between 150 and 200 but opms delay limited them to 90 this fiscal year. So the second cert, next fiscal (beginning october 1) may be even larger than the first.
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Post by funkyodar on Mar 15, 2014 10:36:48 GMT -5
Some historical cert notes:
Once on a cert, you will be interviewed at ssa's expense in Falls Church. You may not get an offer (greater than 66% of those on the cert won't) and may get on the second or even later certs but you won't be interviewed again. You get one shot.
Can you increase your gal to up your chances of making a cert? The short answer is no, at least not anytime soon. opm has allowed gal increases exactly once. That occurred only after the register was severely depleted and ssa was arguing for opm to do a new register. Opm rather than doing a new register or refresh of the old one took the unprecedented step of allowing gal increases to get some high scoring low gal candidates on odar cert requests. You will be able to increase your gal when they do a reg refresh but lets face it, this is a brand new reg with plenty of choices for odar for each possible opening. There will be no need to refresh for the expected hiring in fiscal 14 or 15 so it may be a while.
Can you decrease? Certainly. If you make a cert, along with the forms for references will be a notice of which cities are on the cert and they will ask you if you still want consideration for those cities. But be careful. You will not be told which of the cities you are in the top 3 and thus competing for. Maybe you are only in competition for east crapland and you strike it. you just struck yourself off the cert and out of competition. Further if you strike a city you will never be considered for that city again.
There is a downside though. You better be sure. Lets say you would like to strike east crapland cause now you know you would never really go there. but you don't strike it. If they offer you east crapland and you turn it down, highly unlikely you will ever be called judge.
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Post by agilitymom on Mar 15, 2014 10:36:58 GMT -5
Keep in mind that the 3-strike rule is used at the discretion of the hiring agency. If I remember correctly SSA didn't start invoking use of the rule until late in the life of the old register.
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Post by 71stretch on Mar 15, 2014 10:46:06 GMT -5
Keep in mind that the 3-strike rule is used at the discretion of the hiring agency. If I remember correctly SSA didn't start invoking use of the rule until late in the life of the old register. Oh, they've invoked the rule all along, just not as publicly as when they started instructing OPM to leave the list of three strikers they provided off the cert list altogether.
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Post by funkyodar on Mar 15, 2014 11:07:54 GMT -5
Agilitymom and observer's comments raise the next question. What determines if I get an offer and where that offer is once on a cert?
Will I get an offer? it has routinely been stated that scores don't matter (good discussion of this earlier in the thread). What does matter is your agency interview and references. Kill the interview and have glowing references and you will likely get an offer (if they can, more on that below) but have a bad reference or stumble in the interview and its over.
Lets say your references talk you up like alexander the great and you ace the interview. So odar likes you. Your first concern is do they like someone else in all the slots you are competing for more? Remember, they can only hire you for one of the open slots that match a city on your gal. If you just have one city and they like you but like someone else with just that city a bit more, you are scrwed.
Also remember there are rules in place about vet preference. They essentially have to hire a vet over a nonvet with the same or higher score. That's where the gal size and 3 strike rule give them ways to manipulate the competition to assure the ones they really like get a slot. Its been argued that insiders have a leg up. In truth, no one really knows how they make their decisions. I have seen folks hired from insider jobs in offices where there are multiple alj slots and sent all the way across the country to an office with one opening.
I like to imagine the selection committee all cloistered around a game board stategizing with gals, scores, interview ratings and 3 strike rule while moving pieces all around the board to get people they want into the agency. They don't care where you are now, the goal being just to get the selectees in the system somewhere they can.
Truth is, all you can control is your interview and your references. The rest is up to luck, the competition, your gal and the whims of the agency.
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Post by maxlaw on Mar 15, 2014 11:09:20 GMT -5
]Oh, they've invoked the rule all along, just not as publicly as when they started instructing OPM to leave the list of three strikers they provided off the cert list altogether. I agree. This is probably a good to remind those about to make an certificate that there are two different "3 rules" that sometimes get conflated. The agency is required to select from among the top 3 scoring candidates for a particular location. That's "the rule of 3". A particular candidate who has been considered for 3 locations, but not selected, need not be considered by the agency again on that certificate. There was a belief by many that a candidate passed over in this manner would never be considered again, and you can find a number of older posts to that effect. This is generally referred to here as being "3 struck." However, it seems clear that over the life of the old register, SSA did in fact subsequently select some people who initially had been passed over after being considered three times. Unfortunately, I'm not aware of good way to know how many time one has been considered, or whether one has been passed over as "never hire" or simply "not now, maybe later."
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Post by funkyodar on Mar 15, 2014 11:43:17 GMT -5
Excellent points max.
Many of us have passed the time fantasizing about having to cancel vacations due to training etc. This is clear pre-hatch chicken computation and dyslexic cart/horse placement. But its fun. In that tradition, here is my latest go:
Odar is reportedly chomping at the bit to hire so I think closely matching the previously reported fastest reg to cert time is a good bet. So lets say first cert out within two weeks of last friday or March 28.
Rounded up to middle of April for the return of references and the like. Interviews in May and from past practices it looks like 5 or 6 weeks of that. Lets say mid june for end of interviews, reference calls and background checks. Past practices point to maybe a month from then till offers go ot to the lucky few so say mid july.
Its been reported on here that the average time lapse between offer and start date is 3 weeks but this will likely be staggered. A 90 person class is too large for training so they will likely cut it in half and stagger starts. The first group prolly start first of august.
You spend two weeks at new duty station then 4 weeks in FC for training. So the first group could be trained by mid september.
the second group could start at first of september (doing their initial 2 weeks at their duty station while the first group is doing their last two weeks in FC) and finish training in mid october.
The biggest concern is gettin the hire done before the end of fiscal 14 on september 30. Training can come after. I had heard though that the hope was to get the first hires actually trained and in place by end of fiscal 14 so they could hurry up and do a second round early in 15. Not sure that would be possible now, but they could hit the accelerator and make it happen.
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Post by funkyodar on Mar 15, 2014 11:51:25 GMT -5
As for those of us thinking second cert is our sweetspot....
If the above timeline is close, there would likely be a working of the transfer list in october/early november. I wouldn't expect much movement on hiring from mid nov thru mid january due to holidays and use or lose leave.
Probably mid jan cert, interviews in feb and offers in April. Long story short, second certers prolly have another year of this waiting.
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Post by privateatty on Mar 15, 2014 12:41:08 GMT -5
]Oh, they've invoked the rule all along, just not as publicly as when they started instructing OPM to leave the list of three strikers they provided off the cert list altogether. I agree. This is probably a good to remind those about to make an certificate that there are two different "3 rules" that sometimes get conflated. The agency is required to select from among the top 3 scoring candidates for a particular location. That's "the rule of 3". A particular candidate who has been considered for 3 locations, but not selected, need not be considered by the agency again on that certificate. There was a belief by many that a candidate passed over in this manner would never be considered again, and you can find a number of older posts to that effect. This is generally referred to here as being "3 struck." However, it seems clear that over the life of the old register, SSA did in fact subsequently select some people who initially had been passed over after being considered three times. Unfortunately, I'm not aware of good way to know how many time one has been considered, or whether one has been passed over as "never hire" or simply "not now, maybe later." I think the answer to this is that we have seen maybe four or five reports of those that had been thrice struck then get an offer from another Cert. The other point is that these were likely folks that were not thrice struck because they were not liked vs. those who got in the way.
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Post by ALJD on Mar 16, 2014 8:11:59 GMT -5
Good information in these posts for new members. Because the original thread they were in was too large and cluttered with posts on other issues, I have moved these posts to a new thread and stickied it for easy access. Well done Funky!
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Post by funkyodar on Mar 16, 2014 9:21:31 GMT -5
Aw shucks. Thanks. I can't take credit though. All I did was regurgitate the great info mined from other's posts.
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Post by privateatty on Mar 16, 2014 9:28:31 GMT -5
Aw shucks. Thanks. I can't take credit though. All I did was regurgitate the great info mined from other's posts. Sorta like the WD, eh wot? They gave you all the info and you produced a product that was asked for.
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Post by tmgesq on Mar 16, 2014 9:44:30 GMT -5
FYI the new class that just got hired has their supplemental training (1 week at end of first year on the job) tentatively scheduled for week of October 27th so new ALJ training usually happens before that!
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Post by mcb on Mar 16, 2014 13:49:50 GMT -5
In 2010, I made the register (and first cert) in May 2010, interviewed in June 2010, was offered a position in August 2010 and started Sept 26, 2010 (the first fiscal week of 2011). FYI, there were two groups hired off the first cert in 2010. The first group was insider heavy, and started in August, and the second group, which I was a part of, started - as previously mentioned - late September 2010.
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Post by sandiferhands (old) on Mar 16, 2014 13:56:03 GMT -5
Not to hijack, but this thread seems like a good place for this info: Where can members of the register find out exactly which cities currently have openings (important for evaluating/tweaking GAL)? Is there a link, or must this be cobbled together by an insider and posted here? Thanks.
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Post by JudgeRatty on Mar 16, 2014 14:05:10 GMT -5
I am an insider and have never heard of an "accessible" master list of vacancies SSA-wide. I believe that is only known by those with a higher pay grade. I think from word of mouth, we could learn what cities have vacancies. For instance, I know of my office and a couple of others from what friends have said. But I do not see how that could help you at all at this point. Between transfers and the inner workings of how SSA will sort people into different cities (once the cert comes out and you know you are actually on a cert, do well on the interview, get good references, and get an offer), knowing what vacancies exist is moot. There is simply no way to know what you would be offered when getting to that point. The first hurdle from here is just getting ON a certificate. Just because you have a good score, that does not buy the ticket. You have to have that city on your GAL and be in the top scorers for that particular city to get on the certificate. Now once ON the certificate, things shift to how well you do on the interview, references, and who gets what city. That part is the mystery. EDIT: But by all means, try and figure it out, and please remove some cities.....
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Post by chinook on Mar 16, 2014 14:13:33 GMT -5
Sandiferhands
You cannot "tweak" you GAL up, i.e. you cannot add cities that were not on your original GAL. You may decrease the cities on your GAL but, at this point, I don't see any reason to do that unless you have decided you would not go to a specific city under any circumstances. Then it doesn't matter if there is an opening or not.
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Post by hamster on Mar 16, 2014 14:16:50 GMT -5
I think it was "The Yoda of ODAR" philliesfan who mentioned the transfer list posted on the AALJ website. Insiders can have a friendly ALJ print out a copy for them--but it's already obsolete because there have been a bunch of transfers recently by incumbent judges in anticipation of the upcoming hiring. So, I don't know how a copy of the transfer list would be very helpful. Additionally, "tweaking" your GAL may not be such a good idea--after all, today's vacancy might be filled by tomorrow's transfer. Too, while the "tweak" might be relevant to the first round of hiring (good luck, by the way!), it may be counterproductive with respect to the second round of hiring. Just my two cents.
The more offices you have on your GAL, the greater the chance that you'll be hired, and the sooner you'll be hired. Remember, even if you were to get hired for the West Cr*pland Hearing Office (hat tip to funky), you can put yourself on the transfer list for Honolulu after 90 days.
Congratulations to all. Aloha, Hamster
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Post by JudgeRatty on Mar 16, 2014 14:22:48 GMT -5
And with all of the above said, you probably do not want to be in a position where you turn down an offer for a particular city thinking they will simply offer you a different city. I am not so sure that will happen. So having cities on your GAL that you have no plans to accept is an issue.
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