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Post by hamster on Feb 29, 2020 11:29:54 GMT -5
Since there wasn’t a thread yet, and since I’ve always enjoyed going out on a limb, I figured I’d start one.
I am not allowed (so far) to telework. There is Silence from TPTB as to any plans they may have with respect to conducting daily business in the near term in the context of The Elephant in the Room. If TEITR becomes a bigger Elephant, I will be implementing my own telework plan. And using up my annual leave and sick leave. Sorry, claimants. I expect my employer to have a plan and take precautions for the welfare of its workforce. Still waiting. Plan...or there will be chaos. If I am threatened with termination, so be it. But we will see what happens on Monday.
Best,
Judge “Chicken Little” Hamster
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Post by icemaster on Feb 29, 2020 11:54:36 GMT -5
Since there wasn’t a thread yet, and since I’ve always enjoyed going out on a limb, I figured I’d start one. I am not allowed (so far) to telework. There is Silence from TPTB as to any plans they may have with respect to conducting daily business in the near term in the context of The Elephant in the Room. If TEITR becomes a bigger Elephant, I will be implementing my own telework plan. And using up my annual leave and sick leave. Sorry, claimants. I expect my employer to have a plan and take precautions for the welfare of its workforce. Still waiting. Plan...or there will be chaos. If I am threatened with termination, so be it. But we will see what happens a Monday. Best, Judge “Chicken Little” Hamster My understanding is the Social Security Medical Officer (whoever that is) has issued some guidance. I didn't get a chance to review it. I do know the union sent out a request for guidance to the Deputy Commissioner. The next few weeks should be interesting to say the least. My heart goes out to the VHRs and front desk people who will have WAY more direct interaction. |
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Post by hopefalj on Feb 29, 2020 12:29:03 GMT -5
Well, I mean, with a 2-3% mortality rate, the need for a RIF may suddenly become unnecessary, so...
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Post by SPN Lifer on Feb 29, 2020 12:51:45 GMT -5
Well, I mean, with a 2-3% mortality rate, the need for a RIF may suddenly become unnecessary, so... Only if 100% of ALJs are infected. |
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Post by nylawyer on Feb 29, 2020 13:04:15 GMT -5
My completely uninformed guess is that, if anything at all happens, OHO offices will be closed to the public. Scheduled hearings will be conducted by telephone. Employees will be permitted to telework any day they are not required in the office. HR contractors would not be used, instead staff would have to cover the hearings.
That's if anything dramatic at all happens. Less dramatic would be letters going out to all pending hearings advising the claimants that if they are feeling sick at all, they should request an adjournment which will be automatically granted.
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Post by hopefalj on Feb 29, 2020 15:58:21 GMT -5
My completely uninformed guess is that, if anything at all happens, OHO offices will be closed to the public. Scheduled hearings will be conducted by telephone. Employees will be permitted to telework any day they are not required in the office. HR contractors would not be used, instead staff would have to cover the hearings. That's if anything dramatic at all happens. Less dramatic would be letters going out to all pending hearings advising the claimants that if they are feeling sick at all, they should request an adjournment which will be automatically granted. Equally problematic is what happens if/when schools close, daycares close, etc.? Some ALJs, attorneys, and staff are going to be forced to take care of their kids or bring them to the office. I know it seems like we're a long way from this, but this virus moves quickly. |
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Post by maquereau on Feb 29, 2020 17:29:52 GMT -5
Earlier today, when media sources published the numbers on confirmed cases and confirmed deaths therefrom, I calculated mortality at 3.4%. That's a little scary, but then I don't know what the mortality rates might be from other common infectious diseases.
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Post by nylawyer on Feb 29, 2020 17:42:29 GMT -5
Earlier today, when media sources published the numbers on confirmed cases and confirmed deaths therefrom, I calculated mortality at 3.4%. That's a little scary, but then I don't know what the mortality rates might be from other common infectious diseases. If you are using international numbers, I would take that with a mountain of salt. Two of the hardest hit locations are nations that I wouldn't exactly call reliable when it comes to releasing data. |
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Post by roymcavoy on Feb 29, 2020 19:18:02 GMT -5
Earlier today, when media sources published the numbers on confirmed cases and confirmed deaths therefrom, I calculated mortality at 3.4%. That's a little scary, but then I don't know what the mortality rates might be from other common infectious diseases. If you are using international numbers, I would take that with a mountain of salt. Two of the hardest hit locations are nations that I wouldn't exactly call reliable when it comes to releasing data. not to mention cases with mild symptomology might not even be tested. My concern is that the T(big)PTB will preclude sensible, additional telework from being implemented because that might seem like a concession that this is a big deal. |
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Post by generalsherman on Feb 29, 2020 19:34:49 GMT -5
At this point, I believe the mortality rate is around 2%. Your normal flu is about 0.1%, and the 1918-19 Spanish flu was also around 2%, though that varied widely depending on the locale. Those with underlying health problems appear to be most at danger of death from coronavirus, but, personally, I'd rather not risk that 2% chance if I don't have to. Hopefully if it becomes uncontained here in the USA, they'll implement some of the measures described above.
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Post by lurkerbelow on Mar 1, 2020 7:52:50 GMT -5
What really confuses me is the stock market turmoil. That didn't occur in the 1910s, it waited until 1929 to crash. Why is it different now?
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Post by hopefalj on Mar 1, 2020 9:27:16 GMT -5
What really confuses me is the stock market turmoil. That didn't occur in the 1910s, it waited until 1929 to crash. Why is it different now? Aside from the stock market already being overvalued prior to this, the 1910s didn't involve an ever increasing global supply chain. Steel companies oil companies, and Ford didn't rely on foreign manufacturers to create components of their products. With China effectively shutting down for two weeks, companies aren't able to produce things. When half* an iPhone is made in Asia, it makes it difficult to make a whole phone without those parts. * Not intended to be an accurate percentage |
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Post by nylawyer on Mar 1, 2020 9:29:06 GMT -5
Economies are linked together now far more than ever before. Disruption in China affects every company that gets it's products or it's components from there.
Add in the likelihood that the stock market may have been in a bubble anyway, that leads to a big sell off.
Edit- hopefulalj types faster than me
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Post by jimmy224 on Mar 1, 2020 9:37:18 GMT -5
I think with the stock market it is tanking with the thought that businesses are gonna get shut down/quarantined for who knows how long. Not that you still can’t make money in the market (e.g., shorting companies or playing Coronavirus stocks, e.g, TOMZ). It’s just so much uncertainty folks pulling out of market and waiting in sidelines for now.
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Post by harp on Mar 1, 2020 9:38:14 GMT -5
In addition to a more connected global supply chain, we also have much more robust access to information than we did a century ago. We’re not crossing our fingers and hoping a telegram comes through. If someone coughs in South Korea, it’s in my Twitter feed in a matter of minutes.
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Post by Pixie on Mar 1, 2020 12:58:05 GMT -5
We have already implemented some good common sense measures in our house. We have thrown out all of the Corona beer, and we are no longer eating Chinese. Our reusable chopsticks have been boiled and put away in airtight bags.
As to the stock market thing, that's based on the fear that some businesses will be hit harder than others and will cease to exist. While that may be true in a few industries, a good mix of mutual funds should weather that storm for the investor. The market has been up for the last three years, and I haven't been comfortable buying the equities. I've been buying the intermediate mutual bond fund when I get extra cash. And I'm not talking here about the TSP, I'm talking independent investment funds. I contribute the maximum to the TSP C fund.
The amateur investors are now seeing blood in the streets and are going into full panic sell mode. Good. After the market stabilizes a bit at what I perceive to be its new low, I will sell the bond funds and buy into the equities at greatly reduced prices. This is assuming the bond funds are still relatively stable.
I remember back in 2007 and 2008, when the market dropped about 40%, one ALJ I know and a couple of attorneys sold their equities (C fund) in the TSP and bought into the government bond fund. They were afraid of losing everything. Well, if they had ridden it out, it would have come back, and would have continued to grow. As it was, they locked in a loss of 40% of their life savings. Don't let this happen to you. If you are in the equities, you need to have nerves of steel or you will make bad investment decisions. Pixie, your Coronavirus prognosticator.
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Post by jimmy224 on Mar 1, 2020 16:14:51 GMT -5
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Post by nylawyer on Mar 1, 2020 17:01:03 GMT -5
We have already implemented some good common sense measures in our house. We have thrown out all of the Corona beer, and we are no longer eating Chinese. Our reusable chopsticks have been boiled and put away in airtight bags. As to the stock market thing, that's based on the fear that some businesses will be hit harder than others and will cease to exist. While that may be true in a few industries, a good mix of mutual funds should weather that storm for the investor. The market has been up for the last three years, and I haven't been comfortable buying the equities. I've been buying the intermediate mutual bond fund when I get extra cash. And I'm not talking here about the TSP, I'm talking independent investment funds. I contribute the maximum to the TSP C fund. The amateur investors are now seeing blood in the streets and are going into full panic sell mode. Good. After the market stabilizes a bit at what I perceive to be its new low, I will sell the bond funds and buy into the equities at greatly reduced prices. This is assuming the bond funds are still relatively stable. I remember back in 2007 and 2008, when the market dropped about 40%, one ALJ I know and a couple of attorneys sold their equities (C fund) in the TSP and bought into the government bond fund. They were afraid of losing everything. Well, if they had ridden it out, it would have come back, and would have continued to grow. As it was, they locked in a loss of 40% of their life savings. Don't let this happen to you. If you are in the equities, you need to have nerves of steel or you will make bad investment decisions. Pixie, your Coronavirus prognosticator. I fear the wisdom of your last paragraph is undermined by the first. Unless you are retiring any day now (in which case your investments should have already been shifted over to more conservative holdings), best course of action for most is just ignore what's happening in the stock market at any given time. Prior to the 2016 election I sold off all my equities and put it all into a money market. Why? Because I felt pretty sure Trump would win, and there was so much talk about how it that happened the market would tank that I'd figured it would be a self fulfilling prophecy. I planned to let the sell off happen for about a week, and then figured I'd jump back in. Apparently I was so confident in this, I recently learned that the guy I met with at Chase to move everything into the money market did the same thing. Needless to say, didn't work out. Timing the market is a fool's mission, better to go to the track if you want to gamble. |
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Post by Pixie on Mar 1, 2020 20:10:39 GMT -5
No, no, double no!  Wherever you are, just stay there for now. The G fund sometimes keeps up with inflation, sometimes not. That's where the ALJ and the attorneys I know moved their money when they got scared in 2007. They never recouped their losses and should never have been in the C fund to begin with. There were a bunch more just like them back in 07-08. There is no way to build wealth by putting money in the G fund. Even close to retirement, you don't want to be in the G fund (IMO). There are better money management strategies. Now remember that I am a growth advocate and have nerves of steel. Nothing has bothered me in over 30 years of personal investing. And nothing has bothered me in the past 90 years of the history of the market except the meltdown of 1929 and WWII Both of those events would have been concerning to me had I been around to experience them. If approaching retirement, and if the income will be needed shortly after retiring, get a more conservative mix of equites and bonds. The equities will give the potential for additional growth in retirement, and the bonds give more stability. When it comes time for a withdrawal, take money from the equities if the market is up. If the market is down, draw from the more stable bonds. That way you won't be selling your equities while they are low, and taking a loss. And that is exactly how you need to look at it: a withdrawal in retirement from the equites fund is a sale. Remember the advice to buy low and sell high? Don't sell the equities if they are down. Sell the bonds as they are more stable. There is a more to it, such as periodically rebalancing the portfolio, and other subtleties, but that is the basics of it. But don't do anything right now. Just maintain the status quo until things even out. Me? I am watching the market carefully and ready to buy as much as I can when the time is right. Pixie, (your aggressive investment counselor) |
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Post by ba on Mar 1, 2020 20:55:44 GMT -5
We have already implemented some good common sense measures in our house. We have thrown out all of the Corona beer, and we are no longer eating Chinese. Our reusable chopsticks have been boiled and put away in airtight bags. As to the stock market thing, that's based on the fear that some businesses will be hit harder than others and will cease to exist. While that may be true in a few industries, a good mix of mutual funds should weather that storm for the investor. The market has been up for the last three years, and I haven't been comfortable buying the equities. I've been buying the intermediate mutual bond fund when I get extra cash. And I'm not talking here about the TSP, I'm talking independent investment funds. I contribute the maximum to the TSP C fund. The amateur investors are now seeing blood in the streets and are going into full panic sell mode. Good. After the market stabilizes a bit at what I perceive to be its new low, I will sell the bond funds and buy into the equities at greatly reduced prices. This is assuming the bond funds are still relatively stable. I remember back in 2007 and 2008, when the market dropped about 40%, one ALJ I know and a couple of attorneys sold their equities (C fund) in the TSP and bought into the government bond fund. They were afraid of losing everything. Well, if they had ridden it out, it would have come back, and would have continued to grow. As it was, they locked in a loss of 40% of their life savings. Don't let this happen to you. If you are in the equities, you need to have nerves of steel or you will make bad investment decisions. Pixie, your Coronavirus prognosticator. Pix, Corona beer stops the spread of the virus. Silly Pixie. |
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Wherever you are, just stay there for now. The G fund sometimes keeps up with inflation, sometimes not. That's where the ALJ and the attorneys I know moved their money when they got scared in 2007. They never recouped their losses and should never have been in the C fund to begin with. There were a bunch more just like them back in 07-08. 