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Post by phoenixrisingALJ on Mar 5, 2020 22:25:59 GMT -5
3 confirmed cases in MD as of tonight. Gov.Hogan gave statements tonight.
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Post by Ace Midnight on Mar 6, 2020 8:19:46 GMT -5
SOAPBOX MODE [ON] OFF
Okay - real talk here - there is NO WAY there are less than 100k cases in China. I'll explain further - even with their quarantine measures, we strongly suspect this virus has been in the population since late November. If it is as infectious as we have been led to believe with the long incubation period we have also been led to believe, then certainly dozens of millions (if not hundreds) of Chinese citizens have been exposed over the past 100 or so days, and millions have developed an infection ranging from asymptomatic to death. Why do I presuppose this? China has 15 cities with around 10 to 12 million people or more and population densities that rival the subcontinent.
What this means for the epidemiology and epidemic analysis numbers remains unclear and certainly it is possible deaths have been misattributed, certainly in December and early January. But it is highly likely the death rate is highly overstated, even in China. And the more infectious and wide ranging the disease actually is (as opposed to confirmed/confirmable), the more this is true.
The panic associated with this disease, particularly in the West, will have more adverse impact on the average person's life than the disease itself.
SOAPBOX MODE ON [OFF]
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Post by jimmyjiggles on Mar 6, 2020 10:04:52 GMT -5
SOAPBOX MODE [ON] OFF Okay - real talk here - there is NO WAY there are less than 100k cases in China. I'll explain further - even with their quarantine measures, we strongly suspect this virus has been in the population since late November. If it is as infectious as we have been led to believe with the long incubation period we have also been led to believe, then certainly dozens of millions (if not hundreds) of Chinese citizens have been exposed over the past 100 or so days, and millions have developed an infection ranging from asymptomatic to death. Why do I presuppose this? China has 15 cities with around 10 to 12 million people or more and population densities that rival the subcontinent. What this means for the epidemiology and epidemic analysis numbers remains unclear and certainly it is possible deaths have been misattributed, certainly in December and early January. But it is highly likely the death rate is highly overstated, even in China. And the more infectious and wide ranging the disease actually is (as opposed to confirmed/confirmable), the more this is true. The panic associated with this disease, particularly in the West, will have more adverse impact on the average person's life than the disease itself. SOAPBOX MODE ON [OFF] Although you do not specifically make all of these points, I would like to use your post as a foil for my ruminations. First, you are correct that the reaction to the virus has a bigger impact than the virus itself, at least to average persons. But it has a rather dramatic impact in some non-average demographics - namely the elderly, infirm, and immuno-compromised. If we are OK with the virus ravaging this subset of folks, then ignoring the virus and letting it spread is probably the best course, at least economically. Second, in re: the mortality rate. Yes, it is probably lower than current estimates, and may be lower than the 2.5 rate for the Spanish Flu. However, I have been wondering a lot about how they got the 2.5 number, and whether we are comparing apples to apples. For example, if the 2.5 number is arrived at by using those who sought medical treatment for flu like symptoms as the demoninator, and the number of deaths as the numerator, then we should be using the same data set to calculate the mortality rate for purposes of comparing it to the Spanish flu. However, most people are now counting asymptomatic/"too mild to seek medical attention" as part of the dominator for our current mortality rate, which is fine for absolute accuracy, but is not useful for comparing to the Spanish flu, where such data (i.e. those cases too mild to seek medical attention) is speculative and probably unknowable (although I am sure statistical regressions can probably estimate a ballpark). Anyway, just something to think about when comparing current mortality calculations to those of 1918. I also see people say "well yeah, but they did not have all this medical technology and treatment back then" as an argument that the current virus is not as bad as 1918. However, this only supports the counter argument. Presumably, the spanish flu would have been less deadly if they had 2020 medical treatment modalities. Therefore, the fact that the current virus is comparable at all to the spanish flu despite our advanced medical treatment modalities suggests that COVID-19 might be more fatal than the Spanish flu (although I doubt that this is actually the case). All right, enough of this, on with the day. |
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Post by kylearan on Mar 6, 2020 14:23:25 GMT -5
I’ll wash my hands. And I’m going on April 13, the day after Easter.
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Post by nappyloxs on Mar 6, 2020 18:41:17 GMT -5
The Coronavirus is serious! The number of cases is likely underreported. First, China went more than a month before acknowledging it. That means people had it, got better, but spread it to others in the first month alone. Testing isn’t fully reliable yet. There have been false negatives and positives. Not only do providers not have enough tests, but they won’t teat until symptoms are displayed or other criteria. So people who may have it aren’t going to hospitals and even if they do, they might not be tested. As to death rate, it is just like the the number of unknown cases. They are only reporting cases of confirmed deaths due to the virus. There are likely hundreds of other deaths that were reported as being caused by the virus.
I have a family member who is in medicine and wasn’t taking it serious until a confirmed coronavirus patient visited his clinic. The hospital isn’t testing because they don’t have enough tests and they aren’t showing symptoms yet. Now, he believes all the hype around it and that it isn’t to be taken lightly.
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biker
Full Member
Posts: 40
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Post by biker on Mar 6, 2020 19:38:37 GMT -5
I'm in the Seattle hearing office and it's getting a little crazy around here. All of the state and local governments and private businesses including Amazon, Microsoft, are advising people to telework if at all possible. The number of confirmed cases is increasing daily; currently 79 with 11 deaths. Schools are closing and the Univ of Washington is closing in-person classes for the remainder of the term. Conferences are being cancelled including Comic Con (not sure that's a huge loss though). You cannot find hand sanitizer, masks, gloves, OTC cold/flu remedies or isopropyl alcohol anywhere. Costco was even out of TP the other day as well as bottled water. Buses, trains and ferries are being disinfected as much as possible. Our HOCALJ and RCALJ have been asking the COSS to allow more telework for everyone including the judges and have proposed plans for closing the office to the general public and conducting hearings in other locations and by video. COSS is having none of it. I've heard that Medicare judges will be allowed to not only work from home but also conduct hearings using the softphone application on their laptops from home. We had to fight to get hand sanitizer. We were told there were budget issues. There was a management call today that included union officials to lay out the agency's "plan". But nothing was said about closing the offices or restricting exposure from the public. (a very large percentage of our "clients" are homeless). If a person is required to be quarantined then they may be allowed to telework "if they deem it appropriate". If their child's school is closed, they might be allowed to telework "if they deem it appropriate". They have only reactive plans and when asked about implementing measures to distance employees from the public, they had no response.
I personally don't think we need to panic, but the situation is concerning. It would be nice if the agency would show some concern.
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Post by hamster on Mar 6, 2020 20:23:07 GMT -5
I'm in the Seattle hearing office and it's getting a little crazy around here. All of the state and local governments and private businesses including Amazon, Microsoft, are advising people to telework if at all possible. The number of confirmed cases is increasing daily; currently 79 with 11 deaths. Schools are closing and the Univ of Washington is closing in-person classes for the remainder of the term. Conferences are being cancelled including Comic Con (not sure that's a huge loss though). You cannot find hand sanitizer, masks, gloves, OTC cold/flu remedies or isopropyl alcohol anywhere. Costco was even out of TP the other day as well as bottled water. Buses, trains and ferries are being disinfected as much as possible. Our HOCALJ and RCALJ have been asking the COSS to allow more telework for everyone including the judges and have proposed plans for closing the office to the general public and conducting hearings in other locations and by video. COSS is having none of it. I've heard that Medicare judges will be allowed to not only work from home but also conduct hearings using the softphone application on their laptops from home. We had to fight to get hand sanitizer. We were told there were budget issues. There was a management call today that included union officials to lay out the agency's "plan". But nothing was said about closing the offices or restricting exposure from the public. (a very large percentage of our "clients" are homeless). If a person is required to be quarantined then they may be allowed to telework "if they deem it appropriate". If their child's school is closed, they might be allowed to telework "if they deem it appropriate". They have only reactive plans and when asked about implementing measures to distance employees from the public, they had no response. I personally don't think we need to panic, but the situation is concerning. It would be nice if the agency would show some concern. I am aware of a colleague writing to Chief Judge Nagle several days ago asking what the Office of Hearings Operations's "plan" is in the context of the coronavirus. Regrettably, there has been zero real response. I know that I am not allowed to telework. I know that I am expected to show up for hearings regardless. I find this situation more than disheartening. The COSS, by doing nothing meaningful to safeguard the welfare of his employees, and the representatives and claimants and family members and contractors who come to our office daily, is displaying despicable disloyalty and disdain to all of us. Will people have to die before we are authorized to "think outside the box" in terms of doing our jobs and continuing to serve the country? We have employees who are disabled veterans, or older folks, or who are other than superb physical specimens. I know a dozen hearing reporters who are older than 65--and some who are older than 70. I sometimes see older claimants and older attorneys. Sometimes older family members wish to sit in to observe hearings. What should I tell my colleagues, my friends, our contractors and our claimants? That the COSS doesn't give a damn about their welfare? By not speaking out, what responsibility does the Chief Judge have? Can he continue to remain mute in good conscience? When is somebody around here going to take charge and show some leadership? Where is the loyalty that my bosses are supposed to have? For goodness sakes--has the Chief Judge not yet closed the Seattle Hearing Office? If not, what is the only message that we peons are supposed to take from this inaction? I am disgusted. We public servants, our contractors, and the public we serve, deserve a hell of a lot better until this thing shakes out. Respectfully, Hamster |
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Post by redsox1 on Mar 7, 2020 8:30:00 GMT -5
I’ll wash my hands. And I’m going on April 13, the day after Easter. I have cousins in Italy. It’s like China over there now, everything is shutdown. If it’s still at this level next month, are you prepared to self quarantine for 14 days upon return as a courtesy to coworkers and claimants? I am sure TPTB will allow you episodic TW. (Sarcasm here). |
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Post by jimmy224 on Mar 7, 2020 15:29:53 GMT -5
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biker
Full Member
Posts: 40
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Post by biker on Mar 7, 2020 17:58:47 GMT -5
I appreciate your comments and agree with you totally.
The judges received a text from our HOCALJ this morning (Saturday) telling us he had some communication from HQ late yesterday. He will have another call tomorrow (Sunday)for more discussion and we're having an office meeting Monday morning first thing. I didn't get the impression that the office will be closed however. We'll see what happens. Meanwhile, keep washing your hands everyone. Stay healthy.
Respectfully,
Sickness in Seattle
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Post by kylearan on Mar 7, 2020 18:19:34 GMT -5
I’ll wash my hands. And I’m going on April 13, the day after Easter. I have cousins in Italy. It’s like China over there now, everything is shutdown. If it’s still at this level next month, are you prepared to self quarantine for 14 days upon return as a courtesy to coworkers and claimants? I am sure TPTB will allow you episodic TW. (Sarcasm here). OPM has approved telework for quarantined employees. |
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Post by SPN Lifer on Mar 7, 2020 18:34:44 GMT -5
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Post by SPN Lifer on Mar 7, 2020 18:38:38 GMT -5
This could be better than a snow day! |
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Post by jimmy224 on Mar 7, 2020 19:57:59 GMT -5
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Post by hamster on Mar 7, 2020 21:13:49 GMT -5
Amusingly, I asked for the office IT person to ensure my laptop is telework-ready. Denied. Apparently I have to be approved for a Virtual Private Network. But to be approved, I have to first have a telework agreement. As I am not allowed to telework, there is no telework agreement, so there can be no VPN approval, so no IT person will ensure my software and hardware is ready to go. In the event of a Coronavirus outbreak, either I will have to come in and work (and court an early demise), or stay at home and be paid for doing nothing but cower. I’m actually trying to avoid a “snow day,” but my friends the COSS and Chief Judge Nagle are being so principled that if I’m not dead, I’ll get to binge watch Netflix and still be paid! Way to go, fellas!
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Post by nylawyer on Mar 8, 2020 11:03:24 GMT -5
So, hypothetically, because I doubt it comes to this, but assume offices were closed for an extended period of time and all ALJs and staff who were eligible were directed to telework each day. Assume for this hypothetical that hearings will NOT be conducted from home.
1) What exactly would we be doing every day? I have cases in ALPO and POST, probably more than most, but not enough for say a month off.
I guess you could be a little more proactive than you normally might be at looking ahead at future cases, but there is only so much you can do with that.
2) As discussed above, those completely without internet or VPN access would be unable to work and have to be put on paid leave. But what about those with other limitations. For example, what if my home were to lose power (or internet). Or, what about those who have conditions that allow them to telework a couple of days a week that don't apply on a full time basis, particularly in a health emergency where child care and/or school are disrupted. Are they required to use their own leave, or maybe not get paid, while those without internet access are not?
3) On a related point, what about those telework agreements? What if the practical realities referenced above mean the ALJ can't comply with the agreement? Does that result in paid leave, unpaid leave, or the agency just sighing and saying do your best?
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Post by christina on Mar 8, 2020 12:37:58 GMT -5
So, hypothetically, because I doubt it comes to this, but assume offices were closed for an extended period of time and all ALJs and staff who were eligible were directed to telework each day. Assume for this hypothetical that hearings will NOT be conducted from home. 1) What exactly would we be doing every day? I have cases in ALPO and POST, probably more than most, but not enough for say a month off. I guess you could be a little more proactive than you normally might be at looking ahead at future cases, but there is only so much you can do with that. 2) As discussed above, those completely without internet or VPN access would be unable to work and have to be put on paid leave. But what about those with other limitations. For example, what if my home were to lose power (or internet). Or, what about those who have conditions that allow them to telework a couple of days a week that don't apply on a full time basis, particularly in a health emergency where child care and/or school are disrupted. Are they required to use their own leave, or maybe not get paid, while those without internet access are not? 3) On a related point, what about those telework agreements? What if the practical realities referenced above mean the ALJ can't comply with the agreement? Does that result in paid leave, unpaid leave, or the agency just sighing and saying do your best? Regarding 1) work on arprs once u are done with post and alpo. As an agency, we can assign cases to aljs earlier if it’s needed to keep work flow. Judge can request development, including sending out medical and vocational interrogs on cases where it would be beneficial. So alpos and post first, then look at cases with hearings already scheduled and then start on rest of cases in office. We have x-thousand cases in my office to keep work going for awhile with more pre hearing work. |
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Post by nylawyer on Mar 8, 2020 15:58:02 GMT -5
Anyone see the union email today? There is a reference to the Work at Home by Quarantine program, and that amongst those who would qualify is anyone whose child is shut down by the Corona virus.
Does that mean that if my kids school closes I am permitted to stay home, or mandated? Because frankly my kids district feels a little jumpy, and it wouldn't shock me if we closed without a confirmed Corona case in the school.
Edit- in fact, just learned of a nearby district that is closing tomorrow without having anyone in the district who is infected.
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Post by hamster on Mar 8, 2020 16:09:47 GMT -5
I’m at home. Haven’t seen my office email.
I am not a spring chicken—enough so that the CDC considers me high risk. I understand that my office’s “continuity of operations” plan is, “You must come to work even though there are virus patients in our county. Otherwise you are AWOL.”
I love you, too, RCALJ and CALJ, and COSS. Each of you is a real mensch.
Hamster
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Post by Pixie on Mar 8, 2020 18:09:59 GMT -5
Anyone see the union email today? There is a reference to the Work at Home by Quarantine program, and that amongst those who would qualify is anyone whose child is shut down by the Corona virus.That's pretty close, but nylawyer 's fast fingers left out the word, "school." So the language should be ". . . whose child's school is shut down . . . . " Discussion is fine, but let's not copy and paste the union email. Not sure if this line of discussion should be here or under the more generic Coronavirus thread. Pixie |
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