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Post by roymcavoy on Jul 29, 2020 6:59:23 GMT -5
An economy downturn leads to increased applications. The upcoming drop in unemployment benefits will expedite this problem. There is also the possibility/likelihood that CV will lead to increased disability applications due to effects we don’t yet know. For example, there was a story in USA Today yesterday about a study that showed almost 80% of CV cases had heart damage following infection. These two things tend to support a likelihood of increased applications both short and long term.
There are currently 1380 or so ALJs (I haven’t looked recently). Many of these ALJs are concentrated away from smaller cities, where it seems the economic downturn will hit fastest and hardest. Although transferring cases (and ALJs on loan) has seemingly worked to drop the backlog, ALJ dispositions have recently decreased during CV work from home. In recent years SSA has hired office staff and decision writers. This appears to indicate that an increase in cases would tend to indicate a need for more ALJs.
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Post by tripper on Jul 29, 2020 8:02:20 GMT -5
My office hasn’t hired office staff in at least four years.
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Post by roymcavoy on Jul 29, 2020 8:39:36 GMT -5
My office hasn’t hired office staff in at least four years. various offices hired Case Techs in (I recall) 2015-16, with writers being hired in 2017-18. My point is not that staff was hired everywhere. They are obviously trying to make all work portable so it can be moved between cities. Thus, I think the raw numbers may be more important than local numbers. To support this idea, there are/have been ALJ deficiencies in various cities, but this has not necessitated hiring because the work is portable and applications have been down. Increase applications and who knows what happens—I don’t know that this portable model has seen such a large-scale test. If there is a number of cases that await ALJ action and the bottleneck is clearly not because of a staff shortage, I think the answer would be an ALJ hire. When is the other question. As I have said before, in person hearings are the driver here. While ALJs are holding phone hearings, cases are much more portable. A claimant who might otherwise demand an in-person hearing in Alexandria LA can’t demand that right now. So the number of actual ALJs in Alexandria is not currently important. |
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Post by ok1956 on Jul 29, 2020 9:10:05 GMT -5
My office hasn’t hired office staff in at least four years. At first I gave a thumbs up but that isn’t really what I mean. We haven’t hired assistants (formerly SCt) for awhile and have lost at least a third of our staff to retirement or other job opportunities. |
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Post by fowlfinder on Jul 29, 2020 9:55:34 GMT -5
I would love to put a thumbs up on this thread, but I have to disagree. My personal opinion is that until SSA reopens for public in person work, ALJ hiring wont be considered. It is very hard to onboard new staff when you can't be "there" to train them. It also makes the arcane hiring process extremely difficult, including air travel to Falls Church, etc, if the offices are not open. I just don't see it happening until then, even though it may result in an increase to the back log. But every part of government has a back log now, it wont stand out.
This is my personal opinion as an outsider who has a lot of interaction with insiders.
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Post by tiberiustribble on Jul 29, 2020 10:26:47 GMT -5
I know they seem to be going for natural attrition to reduce the ranks and make the Corp "lean and mean" but wow- they will need to come up with something soon because folks keep retiring or leaving and with no one replacing them....wonder if we will get down to 1,000?
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Post by anciano on Jul 29, 2020 11:58:38 GMT -5
At this point, I am not very sanguine about future ALJ hiring. Traditionally there is usually increased "chatter' about issues relating to the process, e.g. solicitation for interviewers, trainors, available vacant offices, etc. Admittedly, the impact of the pandemic adds a new dimension, but in the past the Agency has garnered certain related preliminary information prior to engaging in the process. To date very little of that has been forthcoming. Moreover, the notion of shrinking the bricks and mortar footprint seems to be a possible direction that the Agency may be heading. The impact of "hotelling" teleworking employees could well be a next step. Stay tuned.
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Post by foghorn on Jul 29, 2020 12:41:10 GMT -5
In the intervening years--yes, years--since there was a hiring, additional wannabe attorney's will be joining our ethereal quest for the ALJ slot, a seeming mirage. So while the drop off due to aging out is slow, the intake is still high, perhaps more so if there is a slowdown in the economy. Result--any slot will have way more applicants.
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Post by bowser on Jul 29, 2020 13:24:44 GMT -5
Does anyone have any solid data on numbers of applications/requests for hrg? I would think sufficient time has passed since March to see SOME uptick - in applications, at least. Might be more after this week, when/if COVID financial programs expire.
(And I'll repeat my standard line, that it sure would be neat if our Agency provided us w/ readily accessible stats rather than keeping us in the dark! By this point, I realize that will likely never happen. I sure don't understand it.)
We've been told recently that we don't have enough cases to fill everyone's dockets. Pretty inconceivable, in light of the presentation of us as a "national" office.
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Post by ssaogc on Jul 29, 2020 13:27:00 GMT -5
Everything is speculative at this point in time. I believe everything is dependent on the election. If the administration changes I suspect that OPM will be back to testing and the provider of certificates from which to hire. If current administration stays then likely no hiring of ALJs. Maybe lots of AAJ hires.
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Post by nylawyer on Jul 29, 2020 13:39:50 GMT -5
At this point, I am not very sanguine about future ALJ hiring. Traditionally there is usually increased "chatter' about issues relating to the process, e.g. solicitation for interviewers, trainors, available vacant offices, etc. Admittedly, the impact of the pandemic adds a new dimension, but in the past the Agency has garnered certain related preliminary information prior to engaging in the process. To date very little of that has been forthcoming. Moreover, the notion of shrinking the bricks and mortar footprint seems to be a possible direction that the Agency may be heading. The impact of "hotelling" teleworking employees could well be a next step. Stay tuned. What do you mean by "hotelling"? |
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Post by ssaogc on Jul 29, 2020 13:44:15 GMT -5
At this point, I am not very sanguine about future ALJ hiring. Traditionally there is usually increased "chatter' about issues relating to the process, e.g. solicitation for interviewers, trainors, available vacant offices, etc. Admittedly, the impact of the pandemic adds a new dimension, but in the past the Agency has garnered certain related preliminary information prior to engaging in the process. To date very little of that has been forthcoming. Moreover, the notion of shrinking the bricks and mortar footprint seems to be a possible direction that the Agency may be heading. The impact of "hotelling" teleworking employees could well be a next step. Stay tuned. What do you mean by "hotelling"? |
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Post by anciano on Jul 29, 2020 13:47:47 GMT -5
Office space will be shared by teleworking employees. The plan is to coordinate among employees to only have necessary office space, to be shared, for when the employee is scheduled to be in the office. There may be no fixed assigned office assignment, since employees will take their laptops with them and can use any docking station. Some say a it is a bit like musical chairs, as there would alway be fewer offices than employees.
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Post by nylawyer on Jul 29, 2020 13:49:35 GMT -5
Does anyone have any solid data on numbers of applications/requests for hrg? I would think sufficient time has passed since March to see SOME uptick - in applications, at least. Might be more after this week, when/if COVID financial programs expire. (And I'll repeat my standard line, that it sure would be neat if our Agency provided us w/ readily accessible stats rather than keeping us in the dark! By this point, I realize that will likely never happen. I sure don't understand it.) We've been told recently that we don't have enough cases to fill everyone's dockets. Pretty inconceivable, in light of the presentation of us as a "national" office. I think the data you want is here: www.ssa.gov/open/data/initial-disability-insurance-online-apps-2012-onward.htmlIf I am reading it correctly, applications for March, April, May, and June 2020 are all down compared to 2019. That's not to say a surge may not be coming. As things stand, there may well be a lot of potential applicants not applying because they are unaware they can do so while the offices are closed. Moreover, the various disability firms may not be able to be as aggressive in beating the bushes to find applicants. Finally, once unemployment benefits end a lot of people may discover they really aren't as ready and willing to work as they thought. |
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Post by prescient on Jul 29, 2020 14:27:02 GMT -5
Office space will be shared by teleworking employees. The plan is to coordinate among employees to only have necessary office space, to be shared, for when the employee is scheduled to be in the office. There may be no fixed assigned office assignment, since employees will take their laptops with them and can use any docking station. Some say a it is a bit like musical chairs, as there would alway be fewer offices than employees. In the new world of covid, I can’t see them implementing hotelling |
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Post by jagvet on Jul 29, 2020 15:17:14 GMT -5
Everything is speculative at this point in time. I believe everything is dependent on the election. If the administration changes I suspect that OPM will be back to testing and the provider of certificates from which to hire. If current administration stays then likely no hiring of ALJs. Maybe lots of AAJ hires. On what do you base that suspicion?
I haven't seen anything to suggest that either candidate or their supporters care about how many ALJs there are or how they are hired. I think this gets filed under, "When You're a Hammer, Everything Seems to be a Nail." Most predictions about changes following elections fail to materialize. Not too many people care enough to invest political chits.
If the current admin wanted AAJs, why has nothing happened?
My prediction: Nothing changes at SSA with either outcome. Four years from now, we'll hear similar predictions.
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Post by ssaogc on Jul 29, 2020 16:17:00 GMT -5
Everything is speculative at this point in time. I believe everything is dependent on the election. If the administration changes I suspect that OPM will be back to testing and the provider of certificates from which to hire. If current administration stays then likely no hiring of ALJs. Maybe lots of AAJ hires. On what do you base that suspicion?
I haven't seen anything to suggest that either candidate or their supporters care about how many ALJs there are or how they are hired. I think this gets filed under, "When You're a Hammer, Everything Seems to be a Nail." Most predictions about changes following elections fail to materialize. Not too many people care enough to invest political chits.
If the current admin wanted AAJs, why has nothing happened?
My prediction: Nothing changes at SSA with either outcome. Four years from now, we'll hear similar predictions.
Democrats are friendlier to organized labor, especially federal unions. Back in mid 2000s Bush Administration instituted pay for performance at agency I worked for NPS or something along those lines putting us into pay bands. We spent countless hours training coming up with objectives having a pay pool and a whole host of other tastings when administration changed In 2008 and Democrats took both houses and WH they reversed course 180 degrees and we all went back to our GS Grades. What a complete waste of time And effort that was. the democrats have stated their preference for ALJs to do the hearings. I just saw a posting on that SSA Blog that folks post on here. Also, there was funding tied to hiring being from candidates that had undergone OPM Testing last year but hiring for some reason never happened. I was called by an RCALJ as a reference for two people. Based on this, I suspect a change in adm will bring a change in dispositions towards unions. I did labor law in a prior life. What the current adm is doing with SSA unions is not something that was normally done under prior Administrations both republican and democratic |
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Post by nylawyer on Jul 29, 2020 16:28:50 GMT -5
I lean toward Jagvets POV. Assuming Biden wins, and assuming he even bothers to replace SSA management, then the new managers will come and have to decide- would they rather be able to hire whomever they want to fill ALJ slots, particularly insiders (which is what the career, non-political SSA middle management would want), or go back to the Byzantine system through OPM?
I have a hard time imagining them choosing that route.
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Post by nappyloxs on Jul 30, 2020 23:43:41 GMT -5
My office hasn’t hired office staff in at least four years. various offices hired Case Techs in (I recall) 2015-16, with writers being hired in 2017-18. My point is not that staff was hired everywhere. They are obviously trying to make all work portable so it can be moved between cities. Thus, I think the raw numbers may be more important than local numbers. To support this idea, there are/have been ALJ deficiencies in various cities, but this has not necessitated hiring because the work is portable and applications have been down. Increase applications and who knows what happens—I don’t know that this portable model has seen such a large-scale test. If there is a number of cases that await ALJ action and the bottleneck is clearly not because of a staff shortage, I think the answer would be an ALJ hire. When is the other question. As I have said before, in person hearings are the driver here. While ALJs are holding phone hearings, cases are much more portable. A claimant who might otherwise demand an in-person hearing in Alexandria LA can’t demand that right now. So the number of actual ALJs in Alexandria is not currently important. Nationalization/portable work agenda has been around for years. I once thought it would be effective for SSA. However, CSU and COVID made me realize SSA isn’t competent enough to implement such a process to effectively. Pre-COVID, they had a patchwork plan that heavily relied on AI for shifting workloads to various office. However, it had several cracks in the process. I can’t recall all the issues, but one was similar to CSU and ALJ review for scheduling. Even before COVID, the DOUT assignments were trouble. I have heard more than once how offices are being asked to DOUT all/most of their UNWR only to receive DOUT the same day or next. Simply, there are too many offices, too many case-specific issues, and too many outside factors to effectively nationalize the workload. Unless they decide to reorganize all HOs/NHCs into 20-40 offices (with paid relo), they just need to stop meddling and trying to manage HOs workloads so much. They should focus on assisting offices that have a backlog and offices that need work. APT cannot be consistent nationally for 100s of reasons not within SSA’s control. |
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Post by greendog on Jul 31, 2020 9:15:00 GMT -5
I think hiring will begin almost immediately. Just saying says the greendog.
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