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Post by zebra51 on Oct 18, 2013 9:20:38 GMT -5
Just for fun I made a poll to guess the NOR release by week.
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Post by Gaidin on Oct 18, 2013 10:00:30 GMT -5
Saints Broncos Super Bowl? Yes. Please.
Bama Oregon BCS? Yes. Please.
NORs by the end of November? Probably not. I think the shut down probably tripped that up. I am guessing week before Christmas. I will now go take Zebra's poll.
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Post by funkyodar on Oct 18, 2013 10:34:56 GMT -5
In my experience, expecting anything of substance from the gov in the period between thanksgiving and new years will leave you wanting.
Too many take advantage of generous leave. Too many with "use or lose" leave. And remember, it's the gov. Unlike a private enterprise where if john doe has a responsibility but is out on vacation jane doe fills in, in the gov the particular responsibility of john usually just doesn't get done even if it grinds the whole process to a halt.
I would guess, based on previous testing practices, that there is a small chance we get nors before thanksgiving. I would be astounded if we got them in december.
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Post by zebra51 on Oct 18, 2013 11:00:30 GMT -5
LBMT - Scanned and Graded easily
SI - Graded on the spot
WD - Contract graders. If OPM was sending as taken almost all the test were sent by shutdown and contract graders most likely continued to grade during shutdown. Even with 16 days shut down don't think it would slow the contract grading by more than a day or two.
Since getting the NORS out by OPM is limited on the contract graders and figuring OPM is gonna get the grades around the same time they would have regardless of the shutdown (most likely would have got final grading after the Oct 17 restart), I don't see the shutdown really slowing down releasing the NORS.
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Post by ssaogc on Oct 18, 2013 12:36:48 GMT -5
Not popular with the masses on this board but my guess is spring 2014, a few weeks (or less) before SSA is ready to conduct interviews i anticipation of hiring.
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Post by epic0ego on Oct 18, 2013 12:44:37 GMT -5
LBMT - Scanned and Graded easily SI - Graded on the spot WD - Contract graders. If OPM was sending as taken almost all the test were sent by shutdown and contract graders most likely continued to grade during shutdown. Even with 16 days shut down don't think it would slow the contract grading by more than a day or two. Since getting the NORS out by OPM is limited on the contract graders and figuring OPM is gonna get the grades around the same time they would have regardless of the shutdown (most likely would have got final grading after the Oct 17 restart), I don't see the shutdown really slowing down releasing the NORS. I will take the poll, and I hope you optimists are proven right. But I think the Hon. Funkyodar has his finger on the cultural pulse of gov't operations. I will go out on a limb and say that we are done with shutdowns, once and for all - and NORs come out in mid-January 2014. |
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Post by trekker on Oct 18, 2013 16:28:31 GMT -5
I predict yet another shut down, sometime in January. Remember there were two in 95/96. I'm going with early Spring since DC usually stops for multiple snow days during the winter -- you just need a sprinkling to close the beltway. And as someone who remembers one too many blizzards and ice storms pounding that area and the beltway becoming a big parking lot, I think we can expect it to happen again this year. The snow days add to delay in government processing of anything. (And yes the metro area has gotten better but it is far from perfect and my guess is based solely on the fact that I am one of those playing the waiting game. I usually have to be out of the country before I get bar results.)
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Post by gottabeme on Oct 19, 2013 19:53:49 GMT -5
I tested and interviewed last week and was told I was the last of the regular applicants. This week began the quarterly 10 pt vets. I predict Dec 2, the Monday after Thanksgiving.
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Post by bhappy on Oct 21, 2013 17:58:53 GMT -5
This will sound pessimistic, but with a new test (with presumably unforeseen glitches), a government shutdown, truncated work weeks with upcoming holidays and leave, and potential furloughs/layoffs (with presumably lowered morale), a Christmas miracle will be required to get NORs out by the end of 2013. Just my opinion.
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leo68
Full Member
Posts: 33
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Post by leo68 on Oct 21, 2013 21:18:46 GMT -5
I hope you are right!
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Post by lurker/dibs on Oct 22, 2013 10:02:54 GMT -5
I am taking the kids out of school and going on a family vacation to Disney World the first week of December. So, based on my lifetime of bad luck, I have to say that they will come out sometime while I am in line for Space Mountain. However, if the gods aren't out to totally screw with me, I think that it will be shortly before SSA is ready to hire, which would be sometime in 2014. I hope I'm wrong and they come out sooner, but the idea that OPM will give applicants extra time to file an appeal, to get an injunction, or otherwise stop the process doesn't make sense to me--which is why I think it probably will happen. Who knows??!?!?! Just another guessing game.
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Post by moopigsdad on Oct 22, 2013 15:06:21 GMT -5
I am taking the kids out of school and going on a family vacation to Disney World the first week of December. So, based on my lifetime of bad luck, I have to say that they will come out sometime while I am in line for Space Mountain. However, if the gods aren't out to totally screw with me, I think that it will be shortly before SSA is ready to hire, which would be sometime in 2014. I hope I'm wrong and they come out sooner, but the idea that OPM will give applicants extra time to file an appeal, to get an injunction, or otherwise stop the process doesn't make sense to me--which is why I think it probably will happen. Who knows??!?!?! Just another guessing game. So, lurker, as they ask sports athletes on TV what are you going to do after winning the Super Bowl or World Series, etc. and the athlete says...I am going to Disney World, perhaps when asked by others what are you going to do after you receive your NORs, you can say...I am going to Disney World! LOL  |
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Post by ginger on Oct 22, 2013 15:33:31 GMT -5
I like that proposed sequence of events MPD!
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Benny
Full Member
Posts: 56
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Post by Benny on Oct 22, 2013 16:42:13 GMT -5
Based on past testing practice, what did stage 3 involve.... An interview and written demo? In other words, is the only difference the LBMT.
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Post by 71stretch on Oct 22, 2013 16:50:28 GMT -5
Based on past testing practice, what did stage 3 involve.... An interview and written demo? In other words, is the only difference the LBMT. Yes, only real change in the testing protocol was the addition of the LBMT. |
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Benny
Full Member
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Post by Benny on Oct 22, 2013 17:48:12 GMT -5
Thanks Observer53. Hopefully, the addition of the LBMT will not slow down scoring since it should be relatively easy to grade.
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Post by Ace Midnight on Oct 22, 2013 18:04:01 GMT -5
The LBMT shouldn't slow it down at all - one could grade 1000 of them in a day with a machine, and hundreds per day by hand. The problem would be if they had to discontinue grading the WD during the shutdown. The good news is that the shutdown occurred during the latter stages and if they were grading all along, should not push it past Thanksgiving. I stand my by "Thanksgiving", by which I mean from the Monday before Thanksgiving (November 25) to the Thursday after Thanksgiving (December 5) - which is 5 to 6 weeks from now.
I'll actually be more surprised if it's after December 5, rather than before November 25.
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Post by BagLady on Oct 22, 2013 18:51:24 GMT -5
I agree, Ace. The last three came out 5 weeks + a day or so after WD/SI.
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Post by privateatty on Oct 22, 2013 19:07:39 GMT -5
In the past, the WD was graded by retired ALJs--at least that's the hearsay I heard here.
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Post by workdrone on Oct 22, 2013 19:20:18 GMT -5
In the past, the WD was graded by retired ALJs--at least that's the hearsay I heard here. I have heard the same hearsay as well. And this would also explain how OPM was able to find retired ALJs to do the SIs on such a short notice (as reported by Minny on 10/2) during the government shutdown. |
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