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Post by gottabeme on Dec 2, 2013 12:16:50 GMT -5
I was hoping for a Christmas miracle but it appears a lot of miracles were used up in the Iron Bowl (Aub v ALA).
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davef
Full Member
Posts: 87
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Post by davef on Dec 2, 2013 13:45:39 GMT -5
While I agree that all signs from SSA indicate we could be waiting awhile for a cert., I'm not as pessimistic about the NOR's. I just don't see the correlation with an OPM delay on NOR's. News that an applicant was rescheduled two months after the last testing dates is troubling, but I am still holding on to hope for December results. I have yet to see a basis as to why timelines would be so different from years past.
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Post by 71stretch on Dec 2, 2013 14:10:14 GMT -5
While I agree that all signs from SSA indicate we could be waiting awhile for a cert., I'm not as pessimistic about the NOR's. I just don't see the correlation with an OPM delay on NOR's. News that an applicant was rescheduled two months after the last testing dates is troubling, but I am still holding on to hope for December results. I have yet to see a basis as to why timelines would be so different from years past. I don't think timelines on the NORs will be that different from years past, the holidays just stretch it a little. I don't think one person, or even a few more, testing in December changes anything. I still don't think OPM will sit on the NORs until right before SSA is going to ask for a cert. so I agree with you on that, davef.
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Post by Ace Midnight on Dec 2, 2013 15:35:41 GMT -5
I'm still holding onto a faint glimmer of hope we get, at least, NORs this month, but with "Use or Loseitis" spreading like wildfire - people who didn't get it last week, will certainly get it during upcoming weeks. I think our next best window is this week - but that is even assuming they will go forward with rescheduled testing in the works. If that has to be completed, I would assume the next best window will be sometime around January 8th (Elvis' birthday.)
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Post by privateatty on Dec 2, 2013 18:55:16 GMT -5
Have you read the OPM/ALJ applicant case law? Azdell was one piece of litigation and it gummed up the works for ten years. I think OPM wants to get it right. The disposition/timeline of the appeals (my guess is they have heard the clamor) will be very interesting. I just hope we will hear more from them than in the past as reporting tends to be skimpy. I'm not sure who you are responding to. I, too, think the disposition/timeline of appeals will be interesting indeed. But, I don't think testing one person in December will change the day the NORs will be issued, or affect the appeals process in any other way. I was making a general comment regarding the fact that OPM seems very accommodating and that in the past my experiences as well as those reported here were far different. The NOR release date will not be affected by a few stragglers, IMO.
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Post by lurker/dibs on Dec 3, 2013 8:51:22 GMT -5
This year Alabama's passing yards actually exceed our running yards. But everyone always thinks they are a running team only. I don't care how people view them, so long as we keep winning. And for the record, I've been a Bama fan since before I was even born, even through the years of probation and losing seasons. Sorry Lurker, it was a good run these past couple of years. Thanks. I was in shock over the game. I'm still proud of the team. They played wonderfully this year! One loss isn't the end of the world, for sure.
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Post by moopigsdad on Dec 3, 2013 9:00:38 GMT -5
Sorry Lurker, it was a good run these past couple of years. Thanks. I was in shock over the game. I'm still proud of the team. They played wonderfully this year! One loss isn't the end of the world, for sure. I agree lurker, but no National Championship has got to hurt! (Just kidding)
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Post by lildavey on Dec 3, 2013 12:04:14 GMT -5
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Post by Ace Midnight on Dec 10, 2013 13:14:42 GMT -5
Just because I'm bored - and I pondered even posting it in the stickied "Timeline" thread, but here goes an analysis of a trend I didn't see before.
Going back to 2007 - this is the 4th ALJ application (and the first "fresh" since 2007, as the 2008 and 2009 were additive to the register, rather than formative to a new one) - the times between application opening and invitation to DC were: 2 months (2007), 3 months (2008), 4 months (2009) and 5 months (2013)
Now - the time between the invitations and NOR was steadily decreasing, 14 weeks (2007), 12 weeks (2008), and 10 weeks (2009). Okay, so what does it mean? It took longer to get the invitations out, each time, but 2 weeks less time, each time, to get NORs out. If it was solely based on number of applicants, 2008 should have been the quickest process. However, it was the longest (7 months), while the 2 larger groups were both 6 month periods from application to NOR. Now, we are dealing with the shutdown and other budget issues, an additional "phase" for lack of a better term, and a 2 week application period, but, this process has already shattered any sort of expectations based on the past procedures.
By this point in the process (time wise, anyway), in 2007, we would only be 6 weeks short of the first ODAR offers. In 2008, we would be in the middle of the first ODAR offers. Ditto for 2009. The fact that we aren't there yet is not necessarily disconcerting. However, there is no discernible movement towards resolution - and none expected, now, until after the first of the year.
Having said that, it does appear to go quickly from NOR to ODAR offers - 3 to 4 months is the norm - however, with this process seemingly breaking the timeline at every stage - should we expect 6 months from NOR to ODAR offers? Should I find something else to occupy my time?
Thoughts?
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Post by moopigsdad on Dec 10, 2013 13:36:47 GMT -5
Your guesses may not be far off acemidnight regarding NORs and offers. There is no doubt that NORs are first coming out after the first of the new year. It may not even occur in the first month of the new calendar year. I do think offers will not be as immediate as in the past. It may be a while prior to any offers going out, but that will depend upon what Congress does with the Federal Budget. If they can come to an agreement regarding budgetary numbers the various agencies may be able to offer positions earlier than mid-year or later. We are hostages of Congressional action on any Federal Budget action or inaction. I have tried to put the NORs out of my mind and worry about other things, like the holidays for now.
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Post by 71stretch on Dec 10, 2013 14:09:07 GMT -5
Having said that, it does appear to go quickly from NOR to ODAR offers - 3 to 4 months is the norm - however, with this process seemingly breaking the timeline at every stage - should we expect 6 months from NOR to ODAR offers? Should I find something else to occupy my time? Thoughts? I think this time around is very different from any prior register or refresh. We may see NORs in January, but it could be a long time before there is a cert, longer than in past years. Yes, you should find other things to occupy your time. I'm sure there's plenty to choose from, including those in which you can actually make something happen, which isn't the case with fretting about NORs or certs. Happy Holidays to you!
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Post by sandiferhands (old) on Dec 10, 2013 15:59:18 GMT -5
I think this time around is very different from any prior register or refresh. We may see NORs in January, but it could be a long time before there is a cert, longer than in past years. I have to agree with observer. Analysis of this type reminds me of discussions about the records of two NFL teams against each other over a 10 year period. Different players, different schemes, different coaches, different opponents, all mean that what went before is unreliable for establishing a trend that can extrapolate a result today. As much as I'd like to get on board with you, I think we'll just have to continue to twist in the wind. Now, where did I put that eggnog...?
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Post by Ace Midnight on Dec 10, 2013 16:21:01 GMT -5
I think this time around is very different from any prior register or refresh. We may see NORs in January, but it could be a long time before there is a cert, longer than in past years. Yes, you should find other things to occupy your time. I'm sure there's plenty to choose from, including those in which you can actually make something happen, which isn't the case with fretting about NORs or certs. Happy Holidays to you! Okay - let's say the NORs are in early February and the budget issues, hiring priorities, etc., perhaps a OMHA cert, but no ODAR cert until August - interviews, etc., could push report dates until November or December - that would potentially make it 21 months between application and report date and probably over 2 years until training. That seems like a terrible precedent. I don't want to speak for the group, but I'm an old fogey already. 2 years is a long, long time. And that's for the first cert to get hired and trained (potentially)? So this register will last 4 or 5 years? Longer?
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Post by lildavey on Dec 10, 2013 17:52:22 GMT -5
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Post by yarddog on Dec 10, 2013 18:01:19 GMT -5
The. Numbers could support a long lasting register. Estimating 600-1000+ on the register.
Still say half full. Jan NOR April hires. IF no one goofs the budget deal.
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Post by 71stretch on Dec 10, 2013 18:15:56 GMT -5
I think this time around is very different from any prior register or refresh. We may see NORs in January, but it could be a long time before there is a cert, longer than in past years. Yes, you should find other things to occupy your time. I'm sure there's plenty to choose from, including those in which you can actually make something happen, which isn't the case with fretting about NORs or certs. Happy Holidays to you! Okay - let's say the NORs are in early February and the budget issues, hiring priorities, etc., perhaps a OMHA cert, but no ODAR cert until August - interviews, etc., could push report dates until November or December - that would potentially make it 21 months between application and report date and probably over 2 years until training. That seems like a terrible precedent. I don't want to speak for the group, but I'm an old fogey already. 2 years is a long, long time. And that's for the first cert to get hired and trained (potentially)? So this register will last 4 or 5 years? Longer? There is no set "precedent" with this sort of thing. Just because there's been somewhat of a pattern in the past doesn't mean there will always be one. There's no guarantee when a register is created for ANY job when or if it will be used. This register will probably last at least two or three years (or maybe more, depending on how many hires there are) before it is refreshed.. Best advice I can give is to go on with your lives-- what will happen will happen- worrying about it too much won't change anything. It's just a job, albeit a very good one. Enjoy the life and job you have. This is not a sprint for most people, but a marathon.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2013 19:58:43 GMT -5
I think this time around is very different from any prior register or refresh. We may see NORs in January, but it could be a long time before there is a cert, longer than in past years. I have to agree with observer. Analysis of this type reminds me of discussions about the records of two NFL teams against each other over a 10 year period. Different players, different schemes, different coaches, different opponents, all mean that what went before is unreliable for establishing a trend that can extrapolate a result today. As much as I'd like to get on board with you, I think we'll just have to continue to twist in the wind. Now, where did I put that eggnog...? Your NFL analogy seems apt, sandiferhands. In pre-internet days, one might say a lot of trees were being killed with all this discussion, theorizing, and flat-out guessing about when the NORs are coming and then the first cert; but, heck, electrons are cheap, so I guess no real harm's being done. As for me, I'm just waiting until we hear. Happy holidays, all, and cheers to those who'll be enjoying a little 'nog.
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Post by Gaidin on Dec 11, 2013 10:50:49 GMT -5
I think this time around is very different from any prior register or refresh. We may see NORs in January, but it could be a long time before there is a cert, longer than in past years. Yes, you should find other things to occupy your time. I'm sure there's plenty to choose from, including those in which you can actually make something happen, which isn't the case with fretting about NORs or certs. Happy Holidays to you! Okay - let's say the NORs are in early February and the budget issues, hiring priorities, etc., perhaps a OMHA cert, but no ODAR cert until August - interviews, etc., could push report dates until November or December - that would potentially make it 21 months between application and report date and probably over 2 years until training. That seems like a terrible precedent. I don't want to speak for the group, but I'm an old fogey already. 2 years is a long, long time. And that's for the first cert to get hired and trained (potentially)? So this register will last 4 or 5 years? Longer? I think the ODAR cert will be earlier in year and hiring before end of fiscal year (end of September). I would imagine they will work to get the training (and the expense of it) over before the end of September. The budget deal appears to be a 2 year deal so all agencies will have a better idea of what their hiring ability will be over remainder of '14 fiscal and all of '15 fiscal. Whether that means larger or smaller hiring I have no idea but I think it means agencies including ODAR will be better able to plan for retirements etc. I also think NORs come in sooner than February. There would be no reason to delay them that long and there is certainly no reason to think that few straggler tests will delay the process significantly. Maybe its January (I still have hope for next week) but February seems like ridiculous delay.
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Post by 71stretch on Dec 11, 2013 11:00:40 GMT -5
Okay - let's say the NORs are in early February and the budget issues, hiring priorities, etc., perhaps a OMHA cert, but no ODAR cert until August - interviews, etc., could push report dates until November or December - that would potentially make it 21 months between application and report date and probably over 2 years until training. That seems like a terrible precedent. I don't want to speak for the group, but I'm an old fogey already. 2 years is a long, long time. And that's for the first cert to get hired and trained (potentially)? So this register will last 4 or 5 years? Longer? I think the ODAR cert will be earlier in year and hiring before end of fiscal year (end of September). I would imagine they will work to get the training (and the expense of it) over before the end of September. The budget deal appears to be a 2 year deal so all agencies will have a better idea of what their hiring ability will be over remainder of '14 fiscal and all of '15 fiscal. Whether that means larger or smaller hiring I have no idea but I think it means agencies including ODAR will be better able to plan for retirements etc. I also think NORs come in sooner than February. There would be no reason to delay them that long and there is certainly no reason to think that few straggler tests will delay the process significantly. Maybe its January (I still have hope for next week) but February seems like ridiculous delay. I think the NORs are coming in January, I've said that in past posts, though not so clearly here. . I, too, don't see them delaying to February.
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Post by northbend on Dec 11, 2013 14:51:29 GMT -5
So do we think that all of the NOR's come out at the same time, or are notifications of scores sent out successively, from highest to lowest, or?
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