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Post by christina on Nov 5, 2015 20:48:34 GMT -5
Thx gary
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Post by luckylady2 on Nov 5, 2015 22:22:23 GMT -5
Thanks TL - we really appreciate your coming back to drop some news on us from time to time!
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Post by Gaidin on Nov 6, 2015 10:11:51 GMT -5
Hey everybody, Saw this thread and thought I would pass along, the first two classes are in Baltimore and we had a session yesterday with the Chief and Dep Chief and they are still waiting for OPM to return the Certs requested. Restated that 200-250 is the goal to hire in 2016 and that the language above is meant to force a Refresh of the Register by that 4/1/2016 date. Both seemed frustrated by the delays, but hope to keep hiring until the Agency gets to 1900 ALJs and they are at just above 1500 now with a lost of 100 to 120 each years to transfers, retirement or death. So hang in there. Sorry for all of the run on sentences, grammar, spelling...running out to dinner with Funky and others. later...Tiger This is good to know. They are not waiting for those testing right now to request certs. Maybe they will get them by next week? I don't want to get anybody's hopes up but it occurs to me that OPM could be waiting until the folks who tested in August get results before sending certs. This is based on Xman's post yesterday. TL if we ever meet you just got a free beverage.
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Post by numbersix on Nov 6, 2015 11:08:00 GMT -5
Happy Friday to all. Do we know how many people are currently on the register? I want to do math (always a challenge for me!) to see what my odds might look like in 2016.
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Post by phoenixrakkasan on Nov 6, 2015 11:10:06 GMT -5
800 is my speculation, which is based on 1000 initial applicants minus those who have been selected, plus the 10 point Warriors.
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Post by christina on Nov 6, 2015 11:19:25 GMT -5
that may be too high because some people did not get past DC who tested in 2013. what is best estimate on how many people tested in DC in 2013?
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Post by phoenixrakkasan on Nov 6, 2015 11:36:19 GMT -5
that may be too high because some people did not get past DC who tested in 2013. what is best estimate on how many people tested in DC in 2013? I thought our guess was around 1200 made it to D.C., with a 25% failure rate. Who knows really? Gary and Sealaw or Funky may know.
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Post by Gaidin on Nov 6, 2015 11:40:27 GMT -5
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Post by christina on Nov 6, 2015 12:15:35 GMT -5
gaidan, that is my best WAG too
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Post by phoenixrakkasan on Nov 6, 2015 12:21:19 GMT -5
Once the new NORs are issued, the Register should be approximately 1,500. 400 positions to fill (which can be more when other agencies enter the process), which means applicants have 20% success rate. Of course, my calculations does not include attrition or the new Refresh that is to come no later than April 2016.
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Post by christina on Nov 6, 2015 12:44:23 GMT -5
thanks phoenix.... :/ but it is what it is, just glad im still allowed to compete in the race at this point.
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Post by phoenixrakkasan on Nov 6, 2015 13:01:46 GMT -5
thanks phoenix.... :/ but it is what it is, just glad im still allowed to compete in the race at this point. A 20% success rate is pretty good. Good time to be on the Register. Keep the Faith!
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kliff
New Member
Posts: 1
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Post by kliff on Nov 6, 2015 13:03:35 GMT -5
For those who get three strikes by April 2016, will the refresh be an opportunity to start over? Anyone know?
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Post by gary on Nov 6, 2015 13:08:23 GMT -5
My best estimate for 2013 was that 1100 tested and 25 to 30 percent did not get high enough scores on the WD, the SI, or both. So I estimated the register to be 770 to 820 strong at its inception.
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Post by sealaw90 on Nov 6, 2015 13:33:28 GMT -5
My best estimate for 2013 was that 1100 tested and 25 to 30 percent did not get high enough scores on the WD, the SI, or both. So I estimated the register to be 770 to 820 strong at its inception. This is my recollection as well. I can't believe I have my notes on this! Crazy!
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Post by auroraborealis on Nov 6, 2015 13:34:33 GMT -5
So how many have been hired is what we don't know, correct?
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Post by Gaidin on Nov 6, 2015 13:39:43 GMT -5
So how many have been hired is what we don't know, correct? You can actually go back through the polls and get a pretty strong idea on the number of hires. I haven't done that but it is upwards of 200.
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Post by sealaw90 on Nov 6, 2015 13:39:38 GMT -5
Yes, we have good guess that 70 were hired in FY14, about 200 in FY 15, and my WAG is that there are about 100 or so folks currently on the register that have been passed over three times or more so are most likely no longer in contention for a position. Take this for what it's worth, I've based this on my notes from the past year or so.
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Post by Gaidin on Nov 6, 2015 13:42:09 GMT -5
My best estimate for 2013 was that 1100 tested and 25 to 30 percent did not get high enough scores on the WD, the SI, or both. So I estimated the register to be 770 to 820 strong at its inception. I reread what I wrote above and I want to be clear I actually think gary and sealaw90's's numbers are right. I think we are looking at <600 left on the register. I made the assertion about there being less than 800 because I believe that is the most conservative number that makes any sense.
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Post by auroraborealis on Nov 6, 2015 14:08:44 GMT -5
That makes sense given the current testing numbers, talk of a refresh and hiring goals laid out by SSA.
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